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Dr. Blair FeltmateIntact Chair, Climate Change Adaptation

Faculty of EnvironmentUniversity of Waterloobfeltmat@uwaterloo.ca

Ph: 226-339-3506

Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Flooding:A Property & Casualty Perspective on

De-Risking the Canadian Housing Market

Evergreen Brick WorksUrban Watershed Forum

March 20, 2015

“Weather Gone Wild”CBC Documentary

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Agenda

1. Climate change & extreme weather – things will get worse

2. Costs of climate change & extreme weather – going up

3. De-Risking the System – P&C Perspective1. Flood plain maps2. Natural Infrastructure Adaptation Program (NIAP)3. Home Adaptation Audit Program (HAAP)

4. Conclusions

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Large Catastrophic Losses

Eastern Ice Storm

Quebec Floods

Slave Lake Fire

Ontario Wind and Rain

Alberta and Toronto Floods

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3

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It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century [0.08 oC/decade for past 100 years].

WHAT SCIENCE TELLS US ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

World Energy Supply

Source: International Energy Agency

Extreme weather is a serious problem for major Canadian cities to address from the perspective of adaptation – now and 30 years from now.

n = 16

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Is floodplain mapping sufficiently understood in the regions identified thatunderwriting (risk exposure) due to flooding can be adequately calculated?(Y = Yes, N = No, DK = Don’t Know)

*

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Flood plain maps in Canada should be updated to account for new and future extremes in precipitation.

Urgency

Fea

sib

ilit

y

Very Low Very High

Ve

ry H

igh

Ve

ry L

ow

1 1 1

3

4Eastern Canada(Don’t Know = 8)

4

3

111

Urgency

Fea

sib

ilit

y

Very Low Very High

Ve

ry H

igh

Ve

ry L

ow

2 3 1

5Central Canada(Don’t Know = 6)

1

5

1

132

*consistent withP&C executives

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Urgency

Fea

sib

ilit

y

Very Low Very High

Ve

ry H

igh

Ve

ry L

ow

1

1

1

6

2

Western Canada(Don’t Know = 6)

4

6

4

1 1

Urgency

Fea

sib

ilit

yVery Low Very High

Ve

ry H

igh

Ve

ry L

ow

2

1

1Northern Canada(Don’t Know = 9)

2 1

1 11

1

1

1

22

Flood plain maps in Canada should be updated to account for new and future extremes in precipitation.

*consistent withP&C executives

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For flood insurance to be profitable for your company, infrastructure (naturaland built) under the direction of government control would have to be substantially “flood hardened” relative to its current condition.

Natural Infrastructure Adaptation Program - NIAP

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If provided with overland flood insurance, the average homeowner willinitiate and maintain action(s) to limit the probability of flooding around his/herhome (e.g., moving downspouts away from house, ensuring outside sewergrates are clear, elevating electrical equipment off basement floor, etc.).

Home Adaptation Audit Program – HAAP

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HOME ADAPTATION AUDIT PROGRAM (HAAP)

Home Adaptation Audit Program – well received by (e.g.,):•Federal Government

o Environment, Finance, NRCan, Public Safety•Provincial Governments (Ontario, Alberta, Quebec)

o Ministers, DMs, ADMs, DGs•Federation of Canadian Municipalities•Association of Municipalities of Ontario•Conservation Authorities

Program Focuses on 100 Points of Audit Reference•e.g., eaves & downspouts, window wells, sump pumps/power supply•2-3 audits/day/auditor•ROI – preventing 3 flooded basements/auditor/year pays for the program

Going Forward•develop training material•Administered by whom? – role of Feds (NRC), provinces, private organization(s)?•Who pays? -- homeowner, municipality, provincial subsidy?•Role of insurers? Risk adjusted premium? Lower deductible? Higher Cap. Limit?•Role of Banks? Inclusion in mortgage home inspections (No UFFI)

Conclusion

1) Develop up-to-date flood plain maps that anticipate the future

2) Weather harden municipal and sub-urban infrastructure (physical and natural) – launch a national “Natural Infrastructure Adaptation Program”

3) Launch a “Home Adaptation Audit Program”

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Not adapting to climate change/extreme weather is a “bet we cannot afford to lose”

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