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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere Interactions Topic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions NASA’s Earth Science NASA’s Earth Science Vision Vision for 2025 calls for for 2025 calls for significant advances in significant advances in our our Ecological Forecasting Ecological Forecasting capabilities capabilities * * An ecological forecast predicts the impacts An ecological forecast predicts the impacts of biological, chemical, and physical of biological, chemical, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people ... components, and people ... __________ __________ * See IGARSS ’01 Paper by Smith, Wickland, * See IGARSS ’01 Paper by Smith, Wickland, Crawford, Cihlar, and Schnase entitled: Crawford, Cihlar, and Schnase entitled: Advancing our Biological and Ecological Predictive Advancing our Biological and Ecological Predictive Capabilities. Capabilities. Earth Science Vision 2010 – Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 2025 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human- Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human- Biosphere Interactions Biosphere Interactions
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Page 1: 1 Earth Science Vision 2010 – 20251 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere Interactions Topic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions NASA’s.

Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 11 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

NASA’s Earth Science Vision NASA’s Earth Science Vision for 2025 calls for significant for 2025 calls for significant advances in our advances in our Ecological Ecological Forecasting capabilitiesForecasting capabilities * *

An ecological forecast predicts the An ecological forecast predicts the impacts of biological, chemical, and impacts of biological, chemical, and

physical changes on ecosystems, physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people ...ecosystem components, and people ...

____________________

* See IGARSS ’01 Paper by Smith, Wickland, * See IGARSS ’01 Paper by Smith, Wickland, Crawford, Cihlar, and Schnase entitled: Crawford, Cihlar, and Schnase entitled: Advancing Advancing our Biological and Ecological Predictive our Biological and Ecological Predictive Capabilities.Capabilities.

Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsEcosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere Interactions

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 22 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Forecast Example Forecast Example Harmful Algal BloomsHarmful Algal Blooms

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 33 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

A Short-Term Regional ForecastA Short-Term Regional ForecastFor Example: For Example: Predicting Harmful Algal BloomsPredicting Harmful Algal Blooms

Challenge: Predict landfall of Challenge: Predict landfall of harmful algal blooms ...harmful algal blooms ...

• TodayToday– Once blooms are detected, Once blooms are detected,

combine biophysical models, combine biophysical models, satellite tracking, and satellite tracking, and in situin situ samplingsampling

• TomorrowTomorrow– Predict bloom onset with Predict bloom onset with

coupled, multi-scale models coupled, multi-scale models and measurementsand measurements

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 44 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Forecast Example Forecast Example Spread of Zebra MusselsSpread of Zebra Mussels

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 55 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

A Long-Term Regional ForecastA Long-Term Regional ForecastFor Example: For Example: The Spread of Zebra MusselsThe Spread of Zebra Mussels

Challenge: Predict direction Challenge: Predict direction and rate of spread of Zebra and rate of spread of Zebra Mussels ...Mussels ...

• TodayToday– Labor intensive inspection of Labor intensive inspection of

boats and waterways boats and waterways

• TomorrowTomorrow– High-resolution, real-time High-resolution, real-time

monitoring of existing colonies monitoring of existing colonies and pathway activity (boats, and pathway activity (boats, flow and water quality of flow and water quality of connecting streams/canals, etc.) connecting streams/canals, etc.)

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 66 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Importance of Ecological ForecastingImportance of Ecological Forecasting

• Ecosystems are the basis of a strong Ecosystems are the basis of a strong economyeconomy– GoodsGoods - Annually, US ecosystems provide: - Annually, US ecosystems provide:

• $3.9 Billion in commercial fishing revenues$3.9 Billion in commercial fishing revenues• $206 Billion from agriculture$206 Billion from agriculture• 20 Billion cubic feet of timber20 Billion cubic feet of timber• The base of strong recreation and tourist industryThe base of strong recreation and tourist industry

– ServicesServices - Ecosystems also provide: - Ecosystems also provide:• Clean air and water for every citizenClean air and water for every citizen• Detoxification and decomposition of toxinsDetoxification and decomposition of toxins• Cycling and movement of carbon and nutrientsCycling and movement of carbon and nutrients• Drought and flood mitigationDrought and flood mitigation

Percent Mortality

85-2050x

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 77 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Why Now?Why Now?

• Ecological theory and Ecological theory and practice sufficiently mature practice sufficiently mature to take on the challenge of to take on the challenge of Ecological ForecastingEcological Forecasting

– Society’s demand for Society’s demand for sustainable choices will sustainable choices will require science to be more require science to be more predictivepredictive

– Science and technology trends Science and technology trends are creating new opportunities are creating new opportunities for ecological forecastingfor ecological forecasting

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 88 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

2025 Technology Drivers2025 Technology Drivers

Observation / Remote SensingObservation / Remote Sensing

• Advances creating new opportunities Advances creating new opportunities for multi-scale, 3D measurementsfor multi-scale, 3D measurements– Nanosat constellationsNanosat constellations

– Virtual platformsVirtual platforms

– Co-observing systemsCo-observing systems

• Sensor webs offer new ways of Sensor webs offer new ways of providing adaptive, tailored, and providing adaptive, tailored, and opportunistic measurements ...opportunistic measurements ...

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 99 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

2025 Technology Drivers2025 Technology Drivers

Computing / Data ManagementComputing / Data Management

• Creating new opportunities for on-Creating new opportunities for on-demand, global-scale ecological demand, global-scale ecological modelingmodeling– Holographic storageHolographic storage

– Quantum / molecular computingQuantum / molecular computing

– Amorphous / biological computingAmorphous / biological computing

• New computing architectures offer New computing architectures offer new ways of dealing with problemsnew ways of dealing with problemsof biocomplexity ...of biocomplexity ...

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1010 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

2025 Technology Drivers2025 Technology Drivers

Nanotechnology / BiotechnologyNanotechnology / Biotechnology

• Creating new opportunities for Creating new opportunities for in situin situ sensing of environmental variablessensing of environmental variables– ““Smart Dust”Smart Dust”

– DNA chipsDNA chips

– Extreme sensitivity biosensorsExtreme sensitivity biosensors

• Nanosensors offer new ways of Nanosensors offer new ways of dealing with problems of scale ...dealing with problems of scale ...

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1111 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

NASA’s Strategic OpportunityNASA’s Strategic Opportunity

• Many sectors are driving these Many sectors are driving these science and technology science and technology developmentsdevelopments– NSF, DARPA, NIH, DOD, etc.NSF, DARPA, NIH, DOD, etc.– Telecommunications, Telecommunications,

biotechnology, medicine, etc.biotechnology, medicine, etc.

• NASA can capitalize on these NASA can capitalize on these technology trends … contribute technology trends … contribute it’s unique perspective of space and it’s unique perspective of space and capacity for end-to-end system capacity for end-to-end system integration …integration …

… … to help create a national ecological to help create a national ecological forecasting capabilityforecasting capability

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1212 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

NASA’s Strategic ApproachNASA’s Strategic ApproachHow do we get there from here?How do we get there from here?

• Build upon NASA’s exiting Build upon NASA’s exiting base of missions, scientific base of missions, scientific research, and technology research, and technology developmentdevelopment

• Extend current capabilities …Extend current capabilities …– by addressing specific by addressing specific

environmental grand challenge environmental grand challenge problemsproblems … …

– that hold the that hold the potential for potential for advancingadvancing … …

– the the science and technologyscience and technology of of ecological forecasting …ecological forecasting …

– and provide significant and provide significant societal societal and economic benefitsand economic benefits . .

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1313 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Ecological ForecastingEcological ForecastingCandidate “Big Science” Challenge QuestionsCandidate “Big Science” Challenge Questions

1.1. Vision 2025 is attempting to identify classes of predictive Vision 2025 is attempting to identify classes of predictive problems that satisfy the criteria for advancing ecological problems that satisfy the criteria for advancing ecological forecasting, such as:forecasting, such as:1.1. Can we predict biological invasions?Can we predict biological invasions?

2.2. Can we predict ecological sustainability?Can we predict ecological sustainability?

3.3. Can we predict the ecological dynamics of the land / water interface?Can we predict the ecological dynamics of the land / water interface?

4.4. Can we predict the ecological consequences of climate change?Can we predict the ecological consequences of climate change?

5.5. Can we predict the ecological consequences of land cover change?Can we predict the ecological consequences of land cover change?

We’ve started by looking at We’ve started by looking at biological invasionsbiological invasions ... ...

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1414 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Ecological Forecasting Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasionsof Biological Invasions

**

One of the Top Environmental Issue of the 21One of the Top Environmental Issue of the 21stst Century! Century!

• Economic Costs:Economic Costs:– $137+ Billion / Yr$137+ Billion / Yr

(Pimentel, et al. 1999; NISRC Management Plan, 2001)(Pimentel, et al. 1999; NISRC Management Plan, 2001)

– More than all other natural More than all other natural disasters combineddisasters combined

• Environmental Costs:Environmental Costs:– 22ndnd leading cause of declining leading cause of declining

biodiversitybiodiversity

• Human-Health Costs:Human-Health Costs:– West Nile Virus, Malaria, etc.West Nile Virus, Malaria, etc.

• Agricultural Costs:Agricultural Costs:– Crop pathogens, hoof-and-Crop pathogens, hoof-and-

mouth, mad cow disease, etc.mouth, mad cow disease, etc.

Notorious examples includeNotorious examples include::

Dutch elm disease, chestnut blight, and purple Dutch elm disease, chestnut blight, and purple loosestrife in the northeast; kudzu, Brazilian loosestrife in the northeast; kudzu, Brazilian peppertree, water hyacinth, nutria, and fire ants in peppertree, water hyacinth, nutria, and fire ants in the southeast; zebra mussels, leafy spurge, and the southeast; zebra mussels, leafy spurge, and Asian long-horn beetles in the Midwest; salt cedar, Asian long-horn beetles in the Midwest; salt cedar, Russian olive, and Africanized bees in the Russian olive, and Africanized bees in the southwest; yellow star thistle, European wild oats, southwest; yellow star thistle, European wild oats, oak wilt disease, Asian clams, and white pine blister oak wilt disease, Asian clams, and white pine blister rust in California; cheatgrass, various knapweeds rust in California; cheatgrass, various knapweeds and thistles in the Great Basin; whirling disease of and thistles in the Great Basin; whirling disease of salmonids in the northwest; hundreds of invasive salmonids in the northwest; hundreds of invasive species from microbes to mammals in Hawaii; and species from microbes to mammals in Hawaii; and the brown tree snake in Guam.the brown tree snake in Guam.

As many as 50,000 now,As many as 50,000 now,hundreds new each year ...hundreds new each year ...

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1515 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Science QuestionsScience Questions

• Which species are more likely to invade?Which species are more likely to invade?

• What are the biotic and abiotic factors determining species What are the biotic and abiotic factors determining species distributions at local and landscape scales?distributions at local and landscape scales?

• Where are local concentrations of endemism, richness, Where are local concentrations of endemism, richness, abundance, and biomass?abundance, and biomass?

• What processes drive habitat and community dynamics?What processes drive habitat and community dynamics?

• How can we seamlessly model terrestrial and aquatic How can we seamlessly model terrestrial and aquatic habitats? … Economic and environmental interactions?habitats? … Economic and environmental interactions?

• How do invasive species interact with other environmental How do invasive species interact with other environmental changes? … What are the pathways of introduction?changes? … What are the pathways of introduction?

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1616 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Why this is a difficult challenge ...Why this is a difficult challenge ...

• High-resolution mapping of biological resources central to High-resolution mapping of biological resources central to confronting the invasive species threatconfronting the invasive species threat

• We must be able to identify dominant communities and We must be able to identify dominant communities and structures with reasonable ability to identify speciesstructures with reasonable ability to identify species

• Biodiversity “hotspots” play a critical role in the biosphere … Biodiversity “hotspots” play a critical role in the biosphere … we must be able to adaptively span global and local scaleswe must be able to adaptively span global and local scales

• Early detection essential for rapid response and effective Early detection essential for rapid response and effective managementmanagement

• Quantifying pathways of introduction essential for economic Quantifying pathways of introduction essential for economic models and cost/benefit guidance for eradication and controlmodels and cost/benefit guidance for eradication and control

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1717 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

What new and improvedWhat new and improvedcapabilities are needed?capabilities are needed?

• On-demand, predictive landscape- On-demand, predictive landscape- and regional-scale models and maps and regional-scale models and maps for biological invasionsfor biological invasions

– Pick any point, land management unit, county, Pick any point, land management unit, county, state, or region and determine the current state, or region and determine the current invasion, and vulnerability to future invasion invasion, and vulnerability to future invasion by species.by species.

– Pick any species or group of species, and get Pick any species or group of species, and get current distributions, potential distributions, current distributions, potential distributions, potential rates of change, and levels of potential rates of change, and levels of uncertainty.uncertainty.

• Data integration and sharingData integration and sharing– Comprehensive information on control efforts Comprehensive information on control efforts

and cost. Share early detection data, control and cost. Share early detection data, control strategies, local expertise. Help public and strategies, local expertise. Help public and private land managersprivate land managers..

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 1818 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

What new and improved What new and improved models are needed?models are needed?

• High-dimensionality, hybrid High-dimensionality, hybrid predictive modelspredictive models

– Temporal, mechanistic, stochastic, and Temporal, mechanistic, stochastic, and scenario-basedscenario-based

– Combined economic and ecological modelsCombined economic and ecological modelsusing hundreds of variablesusing hundreds of variables

• Scalable spatio-temporal modelsScalable spatio-temporal models– Molecules, microbes, to landscapes/ecosystemsMolecules, microbes, to landscapes/ecosystems– Chemical reaction times to Chemical reaction times to

evolutionary/geological timesevolutionary/geological times

• Integrated Earth system modelsIntegrated Earth system models– Coupled ecosystem/climate modelsCoupled ecosystem/climate models– Coupled terrestrial/aquatic modelsCoupled terrestrial/aquatic models

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What new and improved What new and improved measurements are needed?measurements are needed?

• Ecosystem biophysical structureEcosystem biophysical structure– Biomass, vertical structure, topography, Biomass, vertical structure, topography,

ocean particulates, pigment florescence, trace ocean particulates, pigment florescence, trace gas fluxes, near surface atmospheric carbon gas fluxes, near surface atmospheric carbon dynamics, lake and stream chemistry, etc.dynamics, lake and stream chemistry, etc.

• Ecosystem functional capacity / Ecosystem functional capacity / physiological statephysiological state

– Pigment concentrations, live biomass, Pigment concentrations, live biomass, biomass turnover rates, photosynthetic and biomass turnover rates, photosynthetic and respiratory capacity, etc.respiratory capacity, etc.

• Biological population mappingBiological population mapping– Species, communities, functional-type Species, communities, functional-type

mixtures, etc.mixtures, etc.

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 2020 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

VegetationVegetation

• ImportanceImportance– Vegetation structure Vegetation structure thethe habitat habitat

parameter for many speciesparameter for many species– Structural complexity major driver of Structural complexity major driver of

species richness in all environmentsspecies richness in all environments

• Current SourcesCurrent Sources– SAR - Estimates of canopy texture, SAR - Estimates of canopy texture,

biomass, geometry; AVHRR – NDVIbiomass, geometry; AVHRR – NDVI

• Future SourcesFuture Sources– LIDAR - Estimates of vertical LIDAR - Estimates of vertical

stratification, canopy rugosity, leaf stratification, canopy rugosity, leaf morphology, fractional cover, morphology, fractional cover, frequency/distribution of gaps, frequency/distribution of gaps, biomass, shallow marine environmentsbiomass, shallow marine environments

60

50

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0

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Height (m)

0

200

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600

800

W E (m)

60

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0 200 400 600 800 1000

Height (m)

0

200

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 2121 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

TopographyTopography

• ImportanceImportance– Determinant of species range Determinant of species range

boundaries, corridors of invasionboundaries, corridors of invasion

– Influences hydrological, Influences hydrological, geological, and human processesgeological, and human processes

• Current SourcesCurrent Sources– GTOPO 30; GLOBE 30 GTOPO 30; GLOBE 30

arcsec/100m; USGS/European arcsec/100m; USGS/European regional models; US DEMregional models; US DEM

• Future SourcesFuture Sources– SRTM (global) 30m H/30m V; SRTM (global) 30m H/30m V;

High-resolution LIDAR; Military High-resolution LIDAR; Military DTED2 (global)DTED2 (global)

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SoilsSoils

• ImportanceImportance– Species habitat requirementSpecies habitat requirement

– Determinant of species range Determinant of species range boundaries, corridors of invasion, boundaries, corridors of invasion, dispersal patternsdispersal patterns

• Current SourcesCurrent Sources– Type – STATSGO, local soil maps; Type – STATSGO, local soil maps;

Moisture – passive microwave, Moisture – passive microwave, radar, and NIRradar, and NIR

• Future SourcesFuture Sources– High-resolution hyperspectral High-resolution hyperspectral

instruments, active microwaveinstruments, active microwave

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 2323 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

PhenologyPhenology

• ImportanceImportance– Species habitat requirementSpecies habitat requirement

– Determinant of species range Determinant of species range boundaries, corridors of invasion, boundaries, corridors of invasion, dispersal patternsdispersal patterns

• Current SourcesCurrent Sources– AVIRIS; 4-30m multispectral AVIRIS; 4-30m multispectral

sensorssensors

• Future SourcesFuture Sources– Satellite-borne hyperspectral Satellite-borne hyperspectral

(could revolutionize our ability to (could revolutionize our ability to track phenological changes)track phenological changes)

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 2424 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

What new and improved instruments, What new and improved instruments, platforms, and architectures are needed?platforms, and architectures are needed?

• New interfaces between New interfaces between bits and atoms for an bits and atoms for an instrumented Earthinstrumented Earth

– Embedded macro- / nano-sensor webs Embedded macro- / nano-sensor webs with space-based integrationwith space-based integration

– Hierarchical 3D sensing for atmosphere, Hierarchical 3D sensing for atmosphere,

land, lakes, streams, and oceansland, lakes, streams, and oceans

– Near real-time data integration, Near real-time data integration, analysis, and dissemination analysis, and dissemination (multi-source, multi-sensor; combining (multi-source, multi-sensor; combining in situin situ, UAV, aircraft, balloon, and , UAV, aircraft, balloon, and space observations)space observations)

– ““Anywhere, anytime, anyscale sensing Anywhere, anytime, anyscale sensing on demand …”on demand …”

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 2525 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Why NASA?Why NASA?

• Ecological Forecasting is a Ecological Forecasting is a stated focus area for the Earth stated focus area for the Earth Science Enterprise in both Science Enterprise in both Science and Applications Science and Applications – We have new and emerging data and We have new and emerging data and

technologies that can be applied to the technologies that can be applied to the problemproblem

– There’s a need to develop new models There’s a need to develop new models and increase the resolution, sensitivity, and increase the resolution, sensitivity, interoperability, comprehensiveness, and interoperability, comprehensiveness, and social relevance of existing Earth system social relevance of existing Earth system modelsmodels

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 2626 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Why NASA?Why NASA?

• Biological Invasions are Biological Invasions are a global problema global problem– We cannot extrapolate from We cannot extrapolate from

local to global scales without local to global scales without space-based measurementsspace-based measurements

• Completes the NASA Completes the NASA ESE portfolioESE portfolio

• Customers are Customers are requesting our helprequesting our help– Local, state, & federal Local, state, & federal

agencies; private sector; the agencies; private sector; the science community at largescience community at large ... ...

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 2727 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsTopic 1: Ecological Forecasting of Biological Invasions

Why NASA?Why NASA?

• It’s good for NASAIt’s good for NASA

– It’s a hard problemIt’s a hard problem

– It extends current It extends current capabilitiescapabilities

– It’s an autocatalytic It’s an autocatalytic problemproblem

– It’s a It’s a lifelife problem problem that NASA can take that NASA can take on ...on ...

The NASA VisionTo improve life here,

To extend life to there,

To find life beyond.

The NASA MissionTo understand and protect our home planet

To explore the universe and search for life

To inspire the next generation of explorers

…as only NASA can.

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Strategic National WinStrategic National WinWhat might be possible in 25 years?What might be possible in 25 years?

• A robust, national A robust, national Ecological Forecasting Ecological Forecasting capability could make the capability could make the following commonplace:following commonplace:

– Annual national/global assessments of Annual national/global assessments of invasive speciesinvasive species

– On-demand predictions of land-cover On-demand predictions of land-cover change in biological hotspotschange in biological hotspots

– Decadal-scale forecasts of vegetation Decadal-scale forecasts of vegetation changechange

– Early warning of biotic events/ hazardsEarly warning of biotic events/ hazards– Flexible decision support systems for Flexible decision support systems for

adaptive resource managementadaptive resource management– On-demand measurements and movements On-demand measurements and movements

of marine fisheries species ...of marine fisheries species ...

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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsEcosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere Interactions

• Workgroup Leads:Workgroup Leads:– John L. SchnaseJohn L. Schnase

NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterNASA Goddard Space Flight Center

– Sara GravesSara GravesUniversity of Alabama, HuntsvilleUniversity of Alabama, HuntsvilleEarth Science Applications Advisory CommitteeEarth Science Applications Advisory Committee

• Biological Invasions Topic Leads:Biological Invasions Topic Leads:– Thomas J. StohlgrenThomas J. Stohlgren

USGS Biological Resources DivisionUSGS Biological Resources Division

– James A. QuinnJames A. QuinnUniversity of California, DavisUniversity of California, Davis

– Woody TurnerWoody Turner NASA HQ, ESE Science DivisionNASA HQ, ESE Science Division

• Workgroup Members:Workgroup Members:– James ClarkJames Clark

Duke UniversityDuke University

– David A. LodgeDavid A. LodgeUniversity of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame

– James A. SmithJames A. Smith NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterNASA Goddard Space Flight Center

– Charles TreesCharles Trees NASA HQ, ESE Applications DivisionNASA HQ, ESE Applications Division

– Dave PetersonDave Peterson NASA Ames Research CenterNASA Ames Research Center


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