1

Economic Trends and Commercial Construction Indicators

for Metropolitan Washington

Cooperative Forecasting and Data Subcommittee

September 9, 2004

Department of Human Services, Planning and Public Safety

2

Economic Trends in Metropolitan Washington 1999 – 2003

• Population• Employment• Labor Force• Construction• Mortgage Rates, Home

Sales, and Housing-Related Inflation

•Inflation

•Income

•Retail Sales

•Airline Passengers

3

Economic Trends 1999 – 2003Percent Population Change in the Washington Region

Percent Population Change, 1999 - 2003

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

City of Falls Church

City of Manassas

Arlington County

Fairfax County

Prince George's County*

Montgomery County*

District of Columbia

City of Fairfax

Charles County

Stafford County

City of Alexandria

Frederick County*

Calvert County

Prince William County

City of Manassas Park

Loudoun County

Percent Change in Population

4

Economic Trends 1999 – 2003At-Place Employment in the Washington Region

2,300

2,350

2,400

2,450

2,500

2,550

2,600

2,650

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

(Tho

usan

ds)

5

Economic Trends 1999 – 2003Annual Unemployment Rate

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Rat

e

Washington DC-MD-VA MSA Suburban Jurisdictions a/ District of Columbia

6

Economic Trends 1999 - 2003 Net Home Sales in the Washington Region

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

New

Ho

mes

So

ld

7

Economic Trends 1999 - 2003 Housing Units Authorized in the Washington Region

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Uni

ts A

utho

rize

d

8

Economic Trends 1999 – 2003Annual Per Capita Income, 2002

a/ Data for the Cities of Fairfax and Falls Church are included in Fairfax County.

b/ Data for the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park are included in Prince William County.

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

MSA

Stafford County

Prince George's County

Prince William County b/

Charles County

Calvert County

Frederick County

Loudoun County

District of Columbia

Montgomery County

Fairfax County a/

City of Alexandria

Arlington County

9

Commercial Construction Indicators2003

• 524 Projects

• 31.1 Million Square Feet

• $3.6 Billion Estimated Value

10

Commercial Construction Starts 1980 to 2003

Total Square Feet

11

Commercial Construction 2003

Square Feet by Structure Type

12

Commercial Construction 2003

Total Square Feet by Ownership Type

13

Commercial Construction 2003

Total Square Feet by Structure Type and State Group

14

Commercial Construction 2003

Total Square Feet by Jurisdictional Group

15

Commercial Construction 2003Total Square Feet by Metrorail and Commuter Station Areas

16

Commercial Construction in Regional Activity Centers and Clusters

43% in Regional Activity Centers

55% in Regional Activity Clusters