1

Expansions to NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability

Progress in 2008

October 7, 2008

Paula Davidson*, Rohit Mathur, Jeff McQueen, Scott Jackson, Ivanka Stajner, Ken Carey

*NWS Manager, Air Quality Forecast Capability

2

OutlineOutline

Background on NAQFCBackground on NAQFC

Progress in 2008Progress in 2008- Operational products:Operational products:

- Experimental productsExperimental products

- Developmental testingDevelopmental testing

Coordination with PartnersCoordination with Partners

Looking AheadLooking Ahead

3

National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityNational Air Quality Forecast CapabilityCurrent and Planned Capabilities, 10/08Current and Planned Capabilities, 10/08

• Improving the basis for AQ alertsImproving the basis for AQ alerts• Providing AQ information for people at riskProviding AQ information for people at risk

Near-term Operational Targets:Near-term Operational Targets:• Ozone, smoke coverage extended NationwideOzone, smoke coverage extended Nationwide

Longer range:Longer range:• Quantitative PMQuantitative PM2.52.5 prediction prediction• Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hoursExtend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours• Include broader range of significant pollutantsInclude broader range of significant pollutants

FY08 Prediction Capabilities: FY08 Prediction Capabilities: • Operations:Operations:

Ozone, expanded from EUS to CONUS, 9/07Ozone, expanded from EUS to CONUS, 9/07Smoke implemented over CONUS, 3/07Smoke implemented over CONUS, 3/07

• Experimental testing:Experimental testing:Ozone upgradesOzone upgradesSmoke predictions over AKSmoke predictions over AK

• Developmental testing: Developmental testing: components for particulate matter (PM) forecastscomponents for particulate matter (PM) forecasts

2005: O2005: O3320072007: : OO3,3,smokesmoke

4

Model Components: Linked numerical Model Components: Linked numerical prediction systemprediction systemOperationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputerOperationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer• NAM mesoscale NWP: NAM mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMMWRF-NMM• CMAQ for AQ; HYSPLIT for smokeCMAQ for AQ; HYSPLIT for smoke

Observational Input: Observational Input: • NWS weather observations; NESDIS fire locationsNWS weather observations; NESDIS fire locations

• EPA emissions inventoryEPA emissions inventory

National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityNational Air Quality Forecast Capability End-to-End Operational Capability End-to-End Operational Capability

Gridded forecast guidance productsGridded forecast guidance products• On NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aq and ftp-serversOn NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aq and ftp-servers

• On EPA serversOn EPA servers

• Updated 2x dailyUpdated 2x daily

Verification basis, near-real time:Verification basis, near-real time: • Ground-level AIRNow observations Ground-level AIRNow observations

• Satellite smoke observationsSatellite smoke observations

Customer outreach/feedbackCustomer outreach/feedback• State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPAState & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA

• Public and Private Sector AQ constituentsPublic and Private Sector AQ constituents

AQI: Peak Oct AQI: Peak Oct 44

5

Progress in 2008Progress in 2008

Operational Products: Operational Products: – OzoneOzone: Coast-to-Coast (CONUS) guidance implemented 9/07; 2008 updates for : Coast-to-Coast (CONUS) guidance implemented 9/07; 2008 updates for

emissions, WRF-NMMemissions, WRF-NMM

– SmokeSmoke: CONUS guidance implemented 3/07; 12/07 upgrade to full vertical resolution: CONUS guidance implemented 3/07; 12/07 upgrade to full vertical resolution

Experimental Products:Experimental Products:– Ozone:Ozone: CB-05 chem mechanism, developing prototypes for AK, HI CB-05 chem mechanism, developing prototypes for AK, HI

– SmokeSmoke: Expanded coverage to AK, 6/08: Expanded coverage to AK, 6/08

Developmental Products:Developmental Products:– Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic

evaluations. (CONUS)evaluations. (CONUS)

• CMAQ (aerosol option), testing CB05 chemical mechanismCMAQ (aerosol option), testing CB05 chemical mechanism

– Prototypes for AK, HI (ozone); HI (smoke) Prototypes for AK, HI (ozone); HI (smoke)

– Dust and smoke inputs: testing dust contributions to PM2.5 from global sourcesDust and smoke inputs: testing dust contributions to PM2.5 from global sources

• Preliminary tests combining dust with CMAQ-aerosolPreliminary tests combining dust with CMAQ-aerosol

• Case studies combining smoke inputs with CMAQ-aerosolCase studies combining smoke inputs with CMAQ-aerosol

– R&D efforts continuing in chemical data assimilation, real-time emissions sources, R&D efforts continuing in chemical data assimilation, real-time emissions sources, advanced chemical mechanismsadvanced chemical mechanisms

6

Verification Statistics: Example

NN

Obs Obs

MeanMean

Model Model

MeanMean

RMSERMSE

(ppb)(ppb)

NMENME

(%)(%)

MBMB

(ppb)(ppb)

NMBNMB

(%)(%) rr

CONUSCONUS 10941094 56.6256.62 62.2962.29 14.5414.54 19.7319.73 5.665.66 10.0010.00 0.750.75

NN

Obs Obs

MeanMean

Model Model

MeanMean

RMSERMSE

(ppb)(ppb)

NMENME

(%)(%)

MBMB

(ppb)(ppb)

NMBNMB

(%)(%) rr

CONUSCONUS 10941094 56.6256.62 62.2962.29 14.5414.54 19.7319.73 5.665.66 10.0010.00 0.750.75

Max 8-hr OMax 8-hr O33 081507 081507

Max 8-hr OMax 8-hr O33 081507 081507Eder et al. 2008Eder et al. 2008

Fraction Correct: 0.92

7

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-JulDay

Hit Accuracy

Target

Fraction Correct

Progress from 2005 to 2007:Progress from 2005 to 2007:Ozone Prediction Summary VerificationOzone Prediction Summary Verification

Fraction Correct, 2006: 3X 8-hr avg 0.9960.9760.994 0.976 0.985

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

5/1/2006 5/31/2006 6/30/2006 7/30/2006 8/29/2006 9/28/2006Day

Fraction Correct

Target

Monthly Cum

2005

Experimental, Eastern US

Approved 8/05 to replace IOC (NE US) in operations

2006

Operational, Eastern US

Experimental Domain: Daily Verification: 8-hr Avg Full EUS Domain 2005

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct

Fraction Correct

Target

2005

Initial Operational Capability (IOC)

Operational, NE US Domain

Operational

Operational

Experimental

Fraction Correct, 2007: 5X 8-hr avg for CONUS

0.985

0.9640.981

0.998

0.976

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

5/1/07 5/15/07 5/29/07 6/12/07 6/26/07 7/10/07 7/24/07 8/7/07 8/21/07 9/4/07 9/18/07

Fraction Correct

Target

Monthly Cum

2007

Experimental, Contiguous US

Approved 9/07 to replace Eastern US config in operations

Experimental

CONUSCONUS

EUSEUS

EUSEUS

NEUSNEUS

8

Progress from 2007 to 2008:Progress from 2007 to 2008:CONUS OCONUS O3 3 Prediction Summary Verification Prediction Summary Verification

2008

CONUS, wrt 85ppb Threshold JJA: 0.980

Operational

Fraction Correct, 2007: 5X 8-hr avg for CONUS

0.985

0.9640.981

0.998

0.976

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

5/1/07 5/15/07 5/29/07 6/12/07 6/26/07 7/10/07 7/24/07 8/7/07 8/21/07 9/4/07 9/18/07

Fraction Correct

Target

Monthly Cum

2007

Contiguous US (CONUS) Implemented 9/07 to replace Eastern US config in operations JJA: 0.974

Experimental

CONUSCONUS

OPNL Predictions Fraction Correct, from 4/08: 5X 8-hr avg CONUS 85 ppb THRESHOLD

0.9790.987

0.9970.999 0.975

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

4/1/08 4/16/08 5/1/08 5/16/08 5/31/08 6/15/08 6/30/08 7/15/08 7/30/08 8/14/08 8/29/08

Fraction Correct 85ppb

Monthly Cum 85-Threshold

Target

CONUSCONUS

9

Prediction Accuracy and Ozone Thresholds Prediction Accuracy and Ozone Thresholds

Effect on FC: moderate reduction Effect on FC: moderate reduction

Fraction Correct, from 4/08: 5X 8-hr avg CONUS 85 and 76 ppb THRESHOLDS

0.947

0.932

0.960

0.9790.987

0.987 0.989

0.9750.999 0.997

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

4/1/2008 4/16/2008 5/1/2008 5/16/2008 5/31/2008 6/15/2008 6/30/2008 7/15/2008 7/30/2008 8/14/2008 8/29/2008

Fraction Correct 85ppb

Fraction Correct 75ppb

Monthly Cum 75-Threshold

Monthly Cum 85-Threshold

Target

10

Smoke Predictions Summary: Smoke Predictions Summary: Warm Season, 2007 and 2008Warm Season, 2007 and 2008

Threat Scores, 2007: Smoke Column > 1 microgam/m3

0.177

0.099

0.280

0.082

0.150

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

4/1/07 4/15/07 4/29/07 5/13/07 5/27/07 6/10/07 6/24/07 7/8/07 7/22/07 8/5/07 8/19/07 9/2/07

Threat Score

Target

Monthly Cum

Fraction Correct, 2007: Smoke Column > 1 microgam/m3

0.755

0.798

0.848

0.780

0.783

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

4/1/07 4/15/07 4/29/07 5/13/07 5/27/07 6/10/07 6/24/07 7/8/07 7/22/07 8/5/07 8/19/07 9/2/07

Fraction CorrectFC Target: O3 Predictions

Monthly Cum

• FC generally > 0.7

• FC Target not established for qualitative smoke tool

• Based on satellite AOD; column verification only

• TS cum = 0.159; Target = 0.08 (Column verification)

Fraction Correct, 2008: Smoke Column > 1 microgram/m3

0.643

0.770

0.658

0.694

0.716

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

4/1/08 5/1/08 5/31/08 6/30/08 7/30/08 8/29/08

Fraction CorrectFC Target: O3 Predictions

Monthly Cum

• TS cum = 0.133

20072007

• FC generally > 0.6

Threat Scores, 2008: Smoke Column > 1 microgram/m3 Season: 0.133

0.157

0.143

0.143

0.106

0.135

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

4/1/08 5/1/08 5/31/08 6/30/08 7/30/08 8/29/08

Threat ScoreTargetMonthly Cum

20082008

11

Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental TestingExperimental Testing

Experimental Predictions

Publicly available, real-time

Ozone:

CMAQ with advanced gas-phase chemical mechanism CB05

– more comprehensive Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) reactions

– challenge: more O3 with CB05

– regional implications: CA, NE US

Smoke:

Testing over AK domain

– new GOES-W smoke verification in development

– challenge: little fire activity in 2008

weather.gov/aq-exprweather.gov/aq-expr weather.gov/aqweather.gov/aq

ExperimentalExperimental OperationalOperational

12

Fraction Correct, Ozone Predictions, 1200 UTCDaily Maximum of 8-h avg, Full 5X Domain, Th=85 ppb

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 9-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug 6-Sep

Fraction Correct

Target

Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs. Operational OExperimental vs. Operational O33 at 85 ppb at 85 ppb

Experimental vs Operational, 85ppb: Experimental vs Operational, 85ppb: FC decreases in exptl predictionsFC decreases in exptl predictions

OPNL Predictions Fraction Correct, from 4/08: 5X 8-hr avg CONUS 85 ppb THRESHOLD

0.9790.987

0.9970.999 0.975

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

4/1/08 4/16/08 5/1/08 5/16/08 5/31/08 6/15/08 6/30/08 7/15/08 7/30/08 8/14/08 8/29/08

Fraction Correct 85ppb

Monthly Cum 85-Threshold

Target

OperationalOperational

ExperimentalExperimental

13

Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs Operational OExperimental vs Operational O33 at 76 ppb at 76 ppb

Experimental vs. Operational, 76 ppb: Experimental vs. Operational, 76 ppb: FC decreases in exptl predictionsFC decreases in exptl predictions

OPNL Predictions Fraction Correct, from 4/08: 5X 8-hr avg CONUS 76 ppb THRESHOLD

0.947

0.932

0.9600.987 0.989

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

4/1/08 4/16/08 5/1/08 5/16/08 5/31/08 6/15/08 6/30/08 7/15/08 7/30/08 8/14/08 8/29/08

Fraction Correct 75ppb

Monthly Cum 75-Threshold

Target

OperationalOperational

Fraction Correct, Ozone Predictions, 1200 UTCDaily Maximum of 8-h avg, Full 5X Domain, Th=76 ppb

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 9-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug 6-Sep

Fraction Correct

Target

ExperimentalExperimental

14

Developmental Testing, Summer 2008Developmental Testing, Summer 2008

Developmental Predictions: Focus group access only, real-time as

resources permit

Real-time Testing, Aerosols from NEI sources:

CMAQ, Gas-phase CB05 June 10 aerosol chemical reactions

(AERO-4) with heterogeneous pathways

sea salt emissions and chemistry included in aerosol module

Expanded domains: HI smoke Exploring HI, AK ozone Developmental

CB-05CB-05

fine particles

PM2.5

15

Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2008Summary Verification, 2008

August 17, 2007 August 16, 2008

Fraction Correct, Aerosol Predictions, 0600 UTC

Daily Maximum of 1-h avg, Full 5X Domain, Th=40 mg/m3

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

7-Jan

14-Jan

21-Jan

28-Jan

4-Feb

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

3-Mar

10-Mar

17-Mar

24-Mar

31-Mar

7-Apr

14-Apr

21-Apr

28-Apr

5-May

12-May

19-May

26-May

2-Jun

9-Jun

16-Jun

23-Jun

30-Jun

7-Jul

14-Jul

21-Jul

28-Jul

4-Aug

11-Aug

18-Aug

25-Aug

1-Sep

Fraction Correct

Target

Emissions Correction

16

Aerosol Summary: 2008Aerosol Summary: 2008

Fraction Correct, Aerosol Predictions, 0600 UTC

Daily Maximum of 1-h avg, Full 5X Domain, Th=40 mg/m3

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

7-Jan

14-Jan

21-Jan

28-Jan

4-Feb

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

3-Mar

10-Mar

17-Mar

24-Mar

31-Mar

7-Apr

14-Apr

21-Apr

28-Apr

5-May

12-May

19-May

26-May

2-Jun

9-Jun

16-Jun

23-Jun

30-Jun

7-Jul

14-Jul

21-Jul

28-Jul

4-Aug

11-Aug

18-Aug

25-Aug

1-Sep

Fraction Correct

Target

Fraction Correct, Aerosol Predictions, 0600 UTC

Daily Maximum of 1-h avg, Full 5X Domain, Th=35 mg/m3

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

7-Jan

14-Jan

21-Jan

28-Jan

4-Feb

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

3-Mar

10-Mar

17-Mar

24-Mar

31-Mar

7-Apr

14-Apr

21-Apr

28-Apr

5-May

12-May

19-May

26-May

2-Jun

9-Jun

16-Jun

23-Jun

30-Jun

7-Jul

14-Jul

21-Jul

28-Jul

4-Aug

11-Aug

18-Aug

25-Aug

1-Sep

Fraction Correct

Target

Lower thresholdLower threshold

Fraction Correct, Aerosol Predictions, 0600 UTC

Daily Maximum of 24-h Running Average, Full 5X Domain, Th=40 mg/m3

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

7-Jan

14-Jan

21-Jan

28-Jan

4-Feb

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

3-Mar

10-Mar

17-Mar

24-Mar

31-Mar

7-Apr

14-Apr

21-Apr

28-Apr

5-May

12-May

19-May

26-May

2-Jun

9-Jun

16-Jun

23-Jun

30-Jun

7-Jul

14-Jul

21-Jul

28-Jul

4-Aug

11-Aug

18-Aug

25-Aug

1-Sep

Fraction Correct

Target

17

Partnering with AQ ForecastersPartnering with AQ Forecasters

Focus group of state and local AQ Focus group of state and local AQ forecasters:forecasters:• Participate in real-time developmental testing of Participate in real-time developmental testing of

new capabilities, e.g. aerosol predictionsnew capabilities, e.g. aerosol predictions

• Provide feedback on reliability, utility of test Provide feedback on reliability, utility of test productsproducts

• Emphasize local episodes/case studiesEmphasize local episodes/case studies

• Meet regularly to examine test predictions, Meet regularly to examine test predictions, discuss feedback, potential improvementsdiscuss feedback, potential improvements

• Work together with EPA’s AIRNow & NOAAWork together with EPA’s AIRNow & NOAA

Forecaster Coordination:Forecaster Coordination:• WFO and NCEP/HPC forecasters provide WFO and NCEP/HPC forecasters provide

weather information for partner AQ forecastersweather information for partner AQ forecasters– Web-site for AQ forecasters, interactive discussion on Web-site for AQ forecasters, interactive discussion on

event-driven basisevent-driven basis

PHL O3 and aerosol predictions -- Ryan, 2008

Experimental Ozone Guidance, 6/17 -9/10, 1200 UTC

Observed Mean: 64.5 ppbv

Operational Bias: +4.8 ppbvExperimental Bias: +8.3 ppbv

Increased over-prediction consistent day-to-day as weather conditions changed.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

7/12

7/19

7/26

8/2 8/98/1

68/2

38/3

09/6

Date (2008)

PM

2.5

24

-h A

vera

ge

(m

icro

g/m

3)

OBS?

EXPR

Developmental aerosol guidance, 7/12 -9/10, 1200 UTC

Daily 24-hr max

19

National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityNational Air Quality Forecast CapabilityLooking AheadLooking Ahead

Nationwide ozone and particulate Nationwide ozone and particulate matter predictionsmatter predictions

• Expanding ozone & smoke to Expanding ozone & smoke to nationwide coverage, Target: FY10 nationwide coverage, Target: FY10 and and

• Begin quantitative particulate Begin quantitative particulate matter predictions, Target: FY14matter predictions, Target: FY14

•Providing information Nationwide on when/where poor AQ is expected Providing information Nationwide on when/where poor AQ is expected

•Reducing losses to life (50,000) each year from poor AQ Reducing losses to life (50,000) each year from poor AQ

•Reducing economic losses ($150B each year) from poor AQReducing economic losses ($150B each year) from poor AQ

20

National AQF Capability:National AQF Capability:Next StepsNext Steps

Developing Particulate matter components:Developing Particulate matter components:

• Smoke from large fires: experimental testing in AK, HISmoke from large fires: experimental testing in AK, HI

• Components for quantitative PM forecast capability:Components for quantitative PM forecast capability:

– Objective satellite products for verification (ongoing)Objective satellite products for verification (ongoing)

– Aerosols predictions from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: continued Aerosols predictions from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: continued development/testing/analysis– testing advanced chemical mechanismsdevelopment/testing/analysis– testing advanced chemical mechanisms

– Further component development, chemical data assimilation, dust, speciated fire emissions, Further component development, chemical data assimilation, dust, speciated fire emissions, “in-line” coupling of weather and AQ simulation“in-line” coupling of weather and AQ simulation

– Developmental and experimental testing, integrated quantitative PM capability Developmental and experimental testing, integrated quantitative PM capability

– Target operational implementation for initial PM forecasts, NE US: FY14Target operational implementation for initial PM forecasts, NE US: FY14

Expanding, Improving Ozone forecast guidanceExpanding, Improving Ozone forecast guidance

• Closer coupling of AQ with NAM; treatments/resolution, horizontal boundary Closer coupling of AQ with NAM; treatments/resolution, horizontal boundary conditions…conditions…

• Development of AK, HI capabilities; target operational implementation in FY10Development of AK, HI capabilities; target operational implementation in FY10

• Extend forecast range to Day 2 and beyondExtend forecast range to Day 2 and beyond

21

Acknowledgments:Acknowledgments: AQF Implementation Team Members AQF Implementation Team Members

OCWWSOCWWS Jannie Ferrell Jannie Ferrell Outreach, FeedbackOutreach, Feedback

OCIO OCIO Cindy Cromwell, Allan Darling, Bob BungeCindy Cromwell, Allan Darling, Bob Bunge Data CommunicationsData Communications

OST/MDL OST/MDL Jerry Gorline Jerry Gorline Dev. VerificationDev. Verification

OST/MDLOST/MDL Marc Saccucci, Tim Boyer, Dave RuthMarc Saccucci, Tim Boyer, Dave Ruth NDGD Product DevelopmentNDGD Product DevelopmentOSTOST Ken Carey, Ivanka StajnerKen Carey, Ivanka Stajner Program SupportProgram Support

NESDIS/NCDCNESDIS/NCDC Alan HallAlan Hall Product ArchivingProduct Archiving

NOAA/OARNOAA/OAR Jim MeagherJim Meagher NOAA AQ Matrix ManagerNOAA AQ Matrix Manager

NCEPNCEPJeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsidulko, Youhua Tang,Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsidulko, Youhua Tang, EMC AQF model interface development, testing and integration EMC AQF model interface development, testing and integration

Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim *Sarah Lu *Sarah Lu Global data assimilation and feedback testing (NASA, NESDIS)Global data assimilation and feedback testing (NASA, NESDIS)*Brad Ferrier, *Dan Johnson, *Eric Rogers, *Hui-Ya Chuang*Brad Ferrier, *Dan Johnson, *Eric Rogers, *Hui-Ya Chuang WRF/NAM coordinationWRF/NAM coordinationGeoff ManikinGeoff Manikin Smoke Product testing and integrationSmoke Product testing and integrationJohn Ward, Brent Gordon, Chris MageeJohn Ward, Brent Gordon, Chris Magee NCO transition and systems testingNCO transition and systems testingRobert Kelly, Bob Bodner, Andrew OrrisonRobert Kelly, Bob Bodner, Andrew Orrison HPC coordination and AQF webdrawerHPC coordination and AQF webdrawer

* Guest Contributors* Guest Contributors

NOAA/OARNOAA/OARDaewon Byun, Shaocai Yu, Daiwen Kang, Hsin-Mu Lin, Daewon Byun, Shaocai Yu, Daiwen Kang, Hsin-Mu Lin, CMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQFCMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQF

David Wong, Daniel Tong, Tianfeng ChaiDavid Wong, Daniel Tong, Tianfeng ChaiRoland Draxler, Glenn Rolph, Ariel SteinRoland Draxler, Glenn Rolph, Ariel Stein HYSPLIT adaptationsHYSPLIT adaptations

NOAA/NESDISNOAA/NESDISShobha Kondragunta, Jian ZengShobha Kondragunta, Jian Zeng Smoke Verification product developmentSmoke Verification product developmentMatt Seybold, Mark RuminskiMatt Seybold, Mark Ruminski HMS product integration with smoke forecast toolHMS product integration with smoke forecast tool

EPA/OAQPSEPA/OAQPSChet Wayland, Phil Dickerson, Scott Jackson, Brad JohnsChet Wayland, Phil Dickerson, Scott Jackson, Brad Johns AIRNow development, coordination with NAQFCAIRNow development, coordination with NAQFC

EPA/ORDEPA/ORDRohit Mathur, Ken Schere, Jon Pleim, Tanya Otte, Rohit Mathur, Ken Schere, Jon Pleim, Tanya Otte, CMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQFCMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQF

Jeff Young, George Pouliot, Brian Eder Jeff Young, George Pouliot, Brian Eder

22

Operational AQ forecast guidanceOperational AQ forecast guidancewww.weather.gov/aqwww.weather.gov/aq

Further information: Further information: www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/air_qualitywww.nws.noaa.gov/ost/air_quality

Smoke ProductsSmoke ProductsImplemented March, 2007Implemented March, 2007

CONUS Ozone CONUS Ozone Expansion Implemented September, 2007Expansion Implemented September, 2007

23

AppendixAppendix

24

Updates in 2008Updates in 2008Operational ProductsOperational Products

WRF update (March, 2008)WRF update (March, 2008)– Size: Expanded domain by 18%

– Model Parameterizations: Implemented gravity wave mountain drag parameterization, modified horizontal advection for better mass conservation, Improved surface longwave radiation calculation, Improved soil moisture calculations OCONUS

– Data assimilation: Upgraded GSI with NMM bkgd error covariances, more satellite obs

Ozone Predictions: Emissions Updates (May, 2008)Ozone Predictions: Emissions Updates (May, 2008)– Point, area and mobile source emissions: updated based on NEI (2005) and projected for

the current year. • EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality on-road emissions estimates

• EGU sources: 2006 CEM data projected for 2008.

– Biogenic sources: updated with BEIS 3.13

Smoke Predictions (December, 2007):Smoke Predictions (December, 2007):– Increased vertical resolution: now at full NAM 60-layer resolution– Increased computational efficiency, faster product delivery

25

Continuing Science UpgradesContinuing Science UpgradesImprovements to the expanding NAQFCImprovements to the expanding NAQFC

Continuing R&D requiredContinuing R&D required

• OAR and EPA working actively with NWS to provide prototype capabilities for pre-operational OAR and EPA working actively with NWS to provide prototype capabilities for pre-operational development, testing experimental production, and implementationdevelopment, testing experimental production, and implementation

Assuring quality with science peer reviews:Assuring quality with science peer reviews:

• Design review of major system upgrades (initial, yearly upgrades) Design review of major system upgrades (initial, yearly upgrades)

• Diagnostic evaluations with field campaigns and evaluationsDiagnostic evaluations with field campaigns and evaluations

• Publication of T&E in peer-reviewed literature Publication of T&E in peer-reviewed literature

Ozone CapabilityOzone Capability

– Otte et al. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 367-385 (2005) Otte et al. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 367-385 (2005)

– Lee et al., J Applied Meteorology and Climatology, in press (2007)Lee et al., J Applied Meteorology and Climatology, in press (2007)

– Mckeen et al., J. Geophys. Res. 110, D21307 (2005)Mckeen et al., J. Geophys. Res. 110, D21307 (2005)

– Yu, et al. , J. Geophys. Res. (2007)Yu, et al. , J. Geophys. Res. (2007)

Smoke ToolSmoke Tool

– Prados et al., J. Geophys. Res. 112, D15201 (2007)Prados et al., J. Geophys. Res. 112, D15201 (2007)

– Kondragunta et al., submitted for publication Kondragunta et al., submitted for publication

– Rolph et al., submitted for publicationRolph et al., submitted for publication

– Zeng and Kondragunta, ms. in preparationZeng and Kondragunta, ms. in preparation

– Ruminski, Kondragunta, Draxler and Zeng, in preparationRuminski, Kondragunta, Draxler and Zeng, in preparation

26

National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityNational Air Quality Forecast CapabilityMajor Components: IOCMajor Components: IOC

NWP ModelNWP Model

NAM/Eta-12NAM/Eta-12

NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWS

AQ Module: AQ Module:

Emissions Preprocessor Emissions Preprocessor

PREMAQPREMAQ

NOAA/OARNOAA/OAR and and EPA/ORDEPA/ORD

AQ Module: AQ Module:

Air Quality Reactive TransportAir Quality Reactive Transport

CMAQCMAQ

NOAA/OARNOAA/OAR and and EPA/ORDEPA/ORD

Weather Weather

ObservationsObservations

EPA’s National EPA’s National

Emissions Inventory:Emissions Inventory:

EPA/OAQPSEPA/OAQPS

IT /CommsIT /Comms

NOAA/NWS NOAA/NWS

andand

EPA/OAQPSEPA/OAQPS

NWP Post-processorsNWP Post-processors

for AQ Modulesfor AQ Modules

27

Smoke Forecast Tool: Smoke Forecast Tool: What is it?What is it?

OverviewOverview • Passive transport/dispersion computed with HYSPLIT & WRF-NAM (or GFS, Passive transport/dispersion computed with HYSPLIT & WRF-NAM (or GFS,

OCONUS). 24-hr spin-up, 48-hour prediction made daily with 6Z cycleOCONUS). 24-hr spin-up, 48-hour prediction made daily with 6Z cycle

Fire LocationsFire Locations• NESDIS/HMS: Filtered ABBA product (only fires with observed associated NESDIS/HMS: Filtered ABBA product (only fires with observed associated

smoke)smoke)

EmissionsEmissions• USFS’ BlueSky algorithm for emitted PM2.5 USFS’ BlueSky algorithm for emitted PM2.5

Smoke Transport/dispersionSmoke Transport/dispersion• HYSPLIT (Lagrangian); plume rise based on combustion heat and HYSPLIT (Lagrangian); plume rise based on combustion heat and

meteorologymeteorology

VerificationVerification• Based on satellite imagery for footprint of extent of observed smoke in Based on satellite imagery for footprint of extent of observed smoke in

atmospheric column exceeding threshold of detectionatmospheric column exceeding threshold of detection

28

Smoke Forecast ToolSmoke Forecast ToolMajor ComponentsMajor Components

NWP ModelNWP Model

NAM/WRF-NMMNAM/WRF-NMM

NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWS

HYSPLIT Module: HYSPLIT Module:

NOAA/OARNOAA/OAR

Weather Weather

ObservationsObservations

USFS’s BlueSky USFS’s BlueSky

Emissions Inventory:Emissions Inventory:

USFS USFS

NWP Post-processorsNWP Post-processors

for AQ Modulesfor AQ Modules

NESDIS HMSNESDIS HMS

Fire LocationsFire Locations

Verification: Verification: NESDIS/GASP SmokeNESDIS/GASP Smoke

29

New Threshold and FCNew Threshold and FC

Miss at Lower Miss at Lower ThresholdThreshold

Mis

s a

t M

iss

at

Lo

we

r L

ow

er

Th

resh

old

Th

resh

old

GoodGood

GoodGoodMissMiss

MissMiss

FC decrease FC decrease

FC increaseFC increase

Pre

dic

tio

n

Pre

dic

tio

n

Observation Observation

Go

od

at

Go

od

at

Lo

we

r L

ow

er

Th

resh

old

Th

resh

old

Good at Lower Good at Lower ThresholdThreshold

GoodGood

Pred = Obs

Pred = Obs

New

Th

resh

old

New

Th

resh

old

Old

Th

resh

old

Old

Th

resh

old

30

Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2007-2008Summary Verification, 2007-2008

Fraction Correct, Aerosol Predictions, 0600 UTCDaily Maximum of 1-h Avg, Full 5X Domain

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1-Jan

8-Jan

15-Jan

22-Jan

29-Jan

5-Feb

12-Feb

19-Feb

26-Feb

5-Mar

12-Mar

19-Mar

26-Mar

2-Apr

9-Apr

16-Apr

23-Apr

30-Apr

7-May

14-May

21-May

28-May

4-Jun

11-Jun

18-Jun

25-Jun

2-Jul

9-Jul

16-Jul

23-Jul

30-Jul

6-Aug

13-Aug

20-Aug

27-Aug

Hit Accuracy

Target20072007

Fraction Correct, Aerosol Predictions, 0600 UTC

Daily Maximum of 1-h avg, Full 5X Domain, Th=40 mg/m3

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

7-Jan

14-Jan

21-Jan

28-Jan

4-Feb

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

3-Mar

10-Mar

17-Mar

24-Mar

31-Mar

7-Apr

14-Apr

21-Apr

28-Apr

5-May

12-May

19-May

26-May

2-Jun

9-Jun

16-Jun

23-Jun

30-Jun

7-Jul

14-Jul

21-Jul

28-Jul

4-Aug

11-Aug

18-Aug

25-Aug

1-Sep

Fraction Correct

Target

Emissions Correction

20082008

31

Daily Aerosol VerificationDaily Aerosol VerificationMarch 5 – 20, 2008March 5 – 20, 2008

Note: sudden improvement from March 16Note: sudden improvement from March 16