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1
Financial Results
Wednesday 7 April, 2004
2
Cautionary note on forward-looking statements
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on currently available information and consistent accounting policies as applied at 31 December 2003. They reflect Lloyd’s current expectations, projections and forecasts about future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements address matters that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Based on a number of factors, actual results could vary materially from those anticipated by the forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, the following:
Rates and terms and conditions of policies may vary from those anticipated.
Actual claims paid and the timing of such payments may vary from estimated claims and estimated timings of payments, taking into account the preliminary nature of such estimates.
Claims and loss activity may be greater or more severe than anticipated, including as a result of natural or man-made catastrophic events.
Competition on the basis of pricing, capacity, coverage terms or other factors may be greater than anticipated.
Reinsurance placed with third parties may not be fully recoverable, or may not be paid on a timely basis, or such reinsurance from creditworthy reinsurers may not be available or may not be available on commercially attractive terms.
Developments in the financial and capital markets may adversely affect investments of capital and premiums, or the availability of equity capital or debt.
Changes in legal, regulatory, tax or accounting environments in relevant countries may adversely affect (i) Lloyd’s ability to offer its products or attract capital, (ii) claims experience, (iii) financial return, or (iv) competitiveness.
Economic contraction or other changes in general economic conditions could adversely affect (i) the market for insurance generally or for certain products offered by Lloyd’s, or (ii) other factors relevant to Lloyd’s performance.
The foregoing list of factors is not comprehensive, and should be read in conjunction with other cautionary statements that are included herein or elsewhere. Lloyd’s undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
3
Agenda
Introduction Lord LeveneChairman
2003 Results Nick Prettejohn Chief Executive
Questions
4
2003 Results - highlights
Profit of £1,892m* for 2003 (£834m for 2002)
Further reduction in combined ratio to 90.7% (2002: 98.6%)
Initial profit projection of £1,780m for 2003 underwriting year (3 year accounting basis)
39% increase in central assets to £781m
Net resources up 35% to £10.1bn
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
5
Annual accounting results
£m 2002 2003
Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10%
Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1%
Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11%
Loss on exchange (401) (30) -93%
Investment return 804 893 +11%
Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127%
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
6
2003 Annual accounting results Premiums
1.4
2.5
9.8
11.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Constant exchange rates
Gross written premium Net earned premium
% increase on 2002
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
7
2003 Annual accounting results Outwards reinsurance premiums
31.1
25.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2003
% ceded
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
8
2003 Annual accounting results Premiums: on-going businesses
8.7
26.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Gross written premium Net earned premium
% increase on 2002
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
9
Annual accounting results
£m 2002 2003
Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10%
Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1%
Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11%
Loss on exchange (401) (30) -93%
Investment return 804 893 +11%
Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127%
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
10
2003 Annual accounting resultsNet catastrophe losses
Source: Syndicate quarterly returns
445272
17887
408
642
206
2,663
250142
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
£m
11
2003 Results – reserve strengthening
£m
Current accident year 2,437
Reserve strengthening (545)
Profit on ordinary activities before tax 1,892
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
12
Annual accounting results
£m 2002 2003
Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10%
Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1%
Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11%
Loss on exchange (401) (30) -93%
Investment return 804 893 +11%
Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127%
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
13
Annual accounting results
£m 2002 2003
Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10%
Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1%
Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11%
Loss on exchange (401) (30) -93%
Investment return 804 893 +11%
Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127%
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
14
Annual accounting results
£m 2002 2003
Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10%
Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1%
Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11%
Loss on exchange (401) (30) -93%
Investment return 804 893 +11%
Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127%
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
15
Lloyd's combined ratio
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
98.6
90.7
2002 2003
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
%
16
Lloyd's: performance by class of business2003 Calendar year combined ratios
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis at syndicate level
110.4
89.4 89.3
93.6
89.7
83.4
93.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Casualty Property Reinsurance Motor Marine Energy Aviation
%
17
90.7
101.4 100.7 101.2
2003
Lloyd's vs Industry 2003 Combined Ratios
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
Sources i) Company data, ii) Insurance Information Institute estimate, iii) Reinsurance Association of America
98.6
113.3
107.5
121.3
2002
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Lloyd's* European P/C & R/IIndustry (i)
US P/C Industry (ii) US R/I Industry (iii)
%
18
Underwriting year result & projection
2001 account result (2,378)
2002 account projection 1,671
2003 account projection 1,780
* Three year accounting basis
£m
19
Net incurred loss ratio development1998-2003
NB All ratio denominators are Q12 actual or estimated ultimate premiums for open years
Source: Lloyd’s audited annual accounts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Quarter
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
%
20
Net incurred loss ratio development1993-1997 vs 2002 & 2003
NB All ratio denominators are Q12 actual or estimated ultimate premiums for open years
Source: Lloyd’s audited annual accounts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Quarter
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 2002 2003
%
21
Balance Sheet
£m 2002 2003
Cash & investments 24,512 27, 893 +14%
Reinsurers’ share of technical provisions
13,693 11,180 -18%
Other assets 11,091 9,830 -11%
Total assets 49,296 48,903 -1%
Total liabilities (41,787) (38,758) -7%
Net resources 7,509 10,145 +35%
22
Lloyd’s central assets
£m
Central Fund 711 +49%
Corporation of Lloyd’s 70 -20%
Total 781 +39%
23
Lloyd’s central assets
363
563
781
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2001 2002 2003
£m
24
2003 central assets – Central Fund arbitration
Net potential exposure same as last year
Arbitration due later this year
Lloyd’s position unchanged
781
491
290
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2003 2003
£m
25
Central assets – post 9/11 target achieved
$1,398 @ USD 1.79$1,188 @ 2001 exchange
rates
363
563
781
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2001 2002 2003
£m
26
No increase in capacity 2004 vs 2003
Source: 2003 final stamp capacity, 2004 first stamp capacity. QQS latest business plan estimates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2003 2004
Capacity Qualifying Quota Share
£bn
27
Market conditions remain attractive
9498100Aviation
96104100Energy
121115100Marine
106107100Motor
102104100Reinsurance
98103100Property
130121100Casualty
200420032002
Premium rating index
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
93.0
83.4
89.7
93.6
89.3
89.4
110.4
Calendar year combined ratios
2003
28
Industry fundamentals – the same one year on
Capital Markets
IndustryReserve
Strengthening
External Influences Lloyd’s Influences
Franchise Implementation
UNDERWRITINGPROFIT
29
2003 – A year of continued progress
Implementation of the Franchise
Transition towards limited liability
Move to annual accounting
Progress on Business Process Reform
30
Summary – Another year of progress and profit
A year of continued progress against strategic objectives
A year of strong financial results
£1.9 billion profit, helped by low catastrophe losses but after reserve strengthening
Combined ratio of 90.7%, outperforming our international peer group
Substantial increase in balance sheet resources (central assets up 39%, net resources up 35%)
Market conditions attractive and fundamentals unchanged
No room for complacency
*Pro-forma annual accounting basis
31
Financial Results
Wednesday 7 April, 2004