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Finding the Appropriate Mix:Finding the Appropriate Mix: Balancing Capabilities with PrioritiesBalancing Capabilities with Priorities

Major General Darren McDew, USAFMajor General Darren McDew, USAFVice Director, Strategic Plans & PolicyVice Director, Strategic Plans & Policy

20 January 201020 January 2010

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Strategic EnvironmentStrategic Environment

Westphalian

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Strategic EnvironmentStrategic Environment

A complex, dynamic, and uncertain environment …A complex, dynamic, and uncertain environment …

. . . With a host of diverse actors. . . With a host of diverse actors

. . . Many strategic challenges. . . Many strategic challenges

. . . And several key meta-trends. . . And several key meta-trends

Taliban Insurgency

Flow Security

Catastrophic TerrorismCyber & Space Vulnerability

Energy SecurityPandemics & Natural Disaster Al Qaeda

Safehaven

Russian Assertiveness

Iranian WMD Program

North Korea Instability

& WMD Proliferation

PakistanInstability

Rising Chinese Influence

Iraq Stability

Mid-East Peace

Process

Climate Change

Ethnic Conflict

Failing States

Global Financial Crisis & Economic Downturn Energy

Dependence

Global Commons

Bolivarian Influence

Transnational Terrorism

Illicit-Trafficking

Arctic Sovereignty

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What Keeps Me Up at Night?What Keeps Me Up at Night?

• Afghanistan

• Pakistan

• Iraq

• Counter-terror

• North Korea and Six Party Talks

• Iran and P5+1 Discussions

• General Non-Proliferation

• Middle East Peace Initiatives

• Possible CYBERCOM

• Regional Ballistic Missile Defense

• Cooperation with Central & South American Friends

• Homeland Defense

• Humanitarian Assistance

• National Security Strategy

• Quadrennial Defense Review

• Arms Control Negotiations

• Risk Assessment

• Trans-regional Flow Security . . . piracy

• Building Partnership Capacity

• Unified Command Plan

• Peacekeeping Operations

• Are we missing a trend?

PartnerPartner

Prepare Prepare

PreventPrevent

PreservePreserve

PrevailPrevail

Help eliminate terror safe havens to the U.S., to our partners, and to these nations

Directly defeat terrorists

Non-proliferation

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Potential Breeding Grounds for InstabilityPotential Breeding Grounds for Instability

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Instability… Flow Security… PartnershipsInstability… Flow Security… Partnerships

FranceKenyaNetherlandsSomaliaSpainUSYemen

AustraliaBahrainDenmarkKoreaPakistanSingaporeTurkeyUKUS

OtherOtherBelgiumFranceGermanyGreeceItalyLuxemburgNetherlandsNorwaySpainSwedenUK

CTF 151CTF 151ChinaIndiaIran Japan MalaysiaRussiaSaudi ArabiaSeychellesYemen

NATONATO EUEU ProsecutionsProsecutions

BahrainDjiboutiKenyaSeychelles

CanadaGreeceItalyNetherlandsPortugalSpainTurkeyUKUS

Shore SupportShore Support

33 Nations assisting/assisted Counter Piracy operations2009: 193 Pirate Attacks/46 Successful

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Inter-Agency CollaborationInter-Agency Collaboration

Defense

Development

Diplomacy

Whole of Government

NGOs

Whole of Society?

Whole of Government

Whole of Society

• Building Partnership Capacity• Authorities• Security Force Assistance• Stability Operations

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Building Partnership Capacity (BPC)Building Partnership Capacity (BPC)

COCOMsCOCOMs

Focused on further evolution of authorities as essential to ability

to attain BPC objectives as defined in the GEF

Dual-Key approach (State/DoD)Encourages better unity of effort

Preserve and enhance globalTrain and Equip

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Strategic Issues and Potential SolutionsStrategic Issues and Potential Solutions

Taliban Insurgency

Flow Security

Catastrophic TerrorismCyber & Space Vulnerability

Energy SecurityPandemics & Natural Disaster Al Qaeda

Safehaven

Russian Assertiveness

Iranian WMD Program

North Korea Instability

& WMD Proliferation

PakistanInstability

Rising Chinese Influence

Iraq Stability

Mid-East Peace

Process

Climate Change

Ethnic Conflict

Failing States

Global Financial Crisis & Economic Downturn Energy

Dependence

Global Commons

Illicit-Trafficking

Arctic Sovereignty

Africa Station

Haiti EarthquakeResponse

Global Train and

Equip

FMF/IMET

Bolivarian Influence

Transnational Terrorism

Counter Piracy

Build Partner Caps

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“The belief that peace is desirable is rarely enough to achieve it. Peace requires responsibility. Peace entails Sacrifice.”

-- President ObamaNobel Peace Prize speech

Dec 10, 2009

“The belief that peace is desirable is rarely enough to achieve it. Peace requires responsibility. Peace entails Sacrifice.”

-- President ObamaNobel Peace Prize speech

Dec 10, 2009