Date post: | 20-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
View: | 214 times |
Download: | 0 times |
1
Forecasting
2
Forecasters May Miss Big Events The Great Recession
3
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADSA)Business Index, Fed at Philadelphia The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions
index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index's underlying components are released.
4
Last Two years
5
Since 2000
6
Since 1960
7
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
08:1 08:2 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1 10:2
Q109Q208Q209
Q3O8Q408
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Forecasts of Rate of Real GDP Growth
Survey of Professional Forecasters
8
Probability Distribution on Annual growth
9
You can stand taller on somebody else’s shoulders
10
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index
11
FRED at St. Louis Fed: GDP, 1947-
12
GDP 1947- (Log Scale)
13
Change in GDP
14
Last 5 Years GDP, $ Billions
15
Change in GDP, Last 5 Years
16
Change in Disposable Personal Income, Last 5 years
17
Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures Since 1929, $ Billions
18
Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures, last 5 years
19
Civilian Unemployment Rate
20
Unemployment Rate in California,Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)
21
Forecasts Livingston Survey
22
GDP Growth
23
Interest rates
24
Forecasters
25
S&P 500
26
27
28
29
30
31
Duration of Unemployment, FRED
32
Duration of Unemployment
33
California California Economic Indicators
34
35
Employment Growth” Month to Month Changes
36
Home Building
37
Month to month changes in Employment
38
39
40
41
Employment in Wholesale and retail Trade
2,000.002,050.002,100.002,150.002,200.002,250.002,300.002,350.002,400.002,450.00
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
42
43
44
45
Construction, Single and multiple Units (Thousands of Permits
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
I II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IV
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
46
Total Wages & Salaries
-100200300400500600700800900
1,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012