+ All Categories
Home > Documents > 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

Date post: 24-Dec-2015
Category:
Upload: willis-mccarthy
View: 217 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
Popular Tags:
57
1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005
Transcript
Page 1: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

1

Global Airline Industry Overview

Ana McAhron-SchulzIFALPA Industrial Advisor

April 2005

Page 2: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

2

Global & Regional Economies

Page 3: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

3

Global economy saw robust expansion in the past year Global growth estimate is 5% for 2004 and forecasted at 4.3% for

2005

Inflation appears to be a growing concern for some countries China takes measures to slow down growth for fear of inflation Despite multiple interest rate increases, inflation still seen as a

threat Energy cost increases are a continuing concern

Impacting consumer confidence

Global Economy Continued to See Growth in 2004

Page 4: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

4

Fragile state of the upswing

Reliance on the US and China for global growth emphasizes a need for structural reforms in many countries Labor and product market reforms needed in Europe Corporate and financial restructuring needed in Japan despite

strong performance mid 2003 – early 2004

China and emerging Asia need greater exchange rate flexibility Countries would have greater monetary control Facilitate emergence of more dynamic economies Contribute to orderly reduction of global imbalances

Page 5: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

5

Unemployment still remains a concern in many parts of the world

Geo-political environment still a threat to global growth Terrorist act or significant military action would

negatively impact current positive trend in growth Significant halt in oil production could ultimately

increase fuel cost to $80/bl

Fragile state of the upswing

Page 6: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

6

Source: IMF (September 2004)

Real GDP Growth and Forecasts

2002 2003 2004F 2005F

World 1.9% 4.5% 5.0% 4.3%

United States 1.9% 3.0% 4.3% 3.5%

Japan -0.3% 2.5% 4.4% 2.3%

Euro Area 0.8% 0.5% 2.2% 2.2%

Latin America -0.1% 1.8% 4.6% 3.6%

Emerging Asia 6.4% 7.2% 7.3% 6.5%

Robust economic expansion continues

Page 7: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

7

Industry Trends and Performance

Page 8: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

8

World airlines see traffic and capacity recovery coupled with

financial pressure Global traffic recovers from impact of Iraq War and SARS

Traffic for 2004 increased 8.8% over 2000 levels - and up 15.3% over 2003

5% growth attributed to recovery from impact of SARS Overall 2004 traffic higher than expected increase of 14%

Capacity for 2004 was 7.3% higher than 2000 levels and 12.1% over 2003 Airlines carried a record 1.8 billion passengers – 11% more than 2003

Passenger growth forecast is 6% per year for 2005 to 2008 World carriers loss estimates for 2004 are $4.8B-$5B

Between 2001 and 2004 the industry has lost $35B Initial forecasts for 2004 were $3B profit, prior to increase in fuel costs

Page 9: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

9

World airlines see traffic and capacity recovery coupled with

financial pressure Yields have dropped 30% in the last 10 years

Business traveler has changed travel patterns Transparency of fares with increased use of internet distribution

Industry has no pricing power

Low cost carriers continue robust growth Overcapacity Increasing liberalization

Some airlines continue to face significant financial pressure On-going losses Increased debt loads Difficulty in accessing capital markets Dwindling liquidity

Page 10: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

10

2004 World Traffic and CapacityAll Regions Post Double-Digit Traffic Growth

Full Year 2004 Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Source: IATA International Traffic Statistics, 1/31/05

*Sample IATA Overall

Traffic Capacity

World* 15.3% 12.1%

Europe 10.1% 8.4%

North America 14.8% 11.0%

South America 12.7% 9.8%

Asia Pacific 20.5% 15.5%

Middle East 24.8% 21.6%

Africa 10.3% 8.9%

Page 11: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

11

January 2005 YOY Percentage Change

Jan 2005 World Traffic and Capacity continued to See Improvements

Traffic Capacity

World* 7.9% 7.8%

Europe 9.9% 6.8%

North America 11.8% 10.0%

Latin America 15.0% 12.8%

Asia Pacific 2.5% 6.1%

Middle East 10.7% 13.0%

Africa 9.4% 7.9%*Sample IATA Overall

Lower than expecteddue to Tsunami

Page 12: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

12

Preliminary Feb 2005 Traffic highlights Asian recovery from tsunami

World traffic growth was 6.6%Load factors remained high at 72%

Passenger traffic grew across all sectorsLed by the Middle East and Latin AmericaAsia Pacific posted an 8% increase over Feb last

year Growth rates returned to normal levels

Cargo traffic slumped 1%Weaker economic activitySlight slump in Chinese imports

Page 13: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

13

Summary of Regional TrendsFuel Costs

Asia-PacificLCC growth

Industry expansionIncreasing fuel demandBi-lateral agreements

Strong economy

North AmericaAirline Restructuring

Yield pressureOvercapacity

LCC expansion

Latin AmericaPoor economy in key areas

International ownershipCorruption

EuropeLCC expansionAirline Mergers

High-speed Trains

Middle EastPolitical instabilityHuge traffic growth

AfricaPolitical instability

Largest carriers expanding

Role of Government

Page 14: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

14

Industry Impacted by the Rising Cost of Fuel

Page 15: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

15

Rising Fuel Prices Impacting Industry

Global Production Crisis Political unrest in oil producing nations

Nigeria’s two oil unions threaten strike Iraq oil production continuously disrupted by oil well attacks Russian oil giant, Yukos, plagued with problems

Ever increasing demand for fuel Largest demand increase in 24 years China’s oil imports rose 35% in 2004 and forecast for 2005 is a

22% increase over 2004 “Fear factor” now a component of the market

Difficult to quantify but adds to the volatility Estimates are US$/bbl attributed to “fear factor”

Airlines spent 32% more on fuel in 2004 over 2003 Resulted in $62B fuel cost for 2004

Source: www.wtrg.com, Merrill Lynch report March 18, 2005, IATA speeches

Page 16: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

16

Rising Fuel Prices Impacting Industry

Supply concerns resulted in an oil price rally to highest level ever with prices reaching record levels of over $56/barrel Most airlines had forecasted fuel prices at $28-30 a barrel for 2004 and $42-

$47 a barrel for 2005 2005 analyst fuel forecasts are $51/bl with 2006 at $40-$45/bl U.S. carriers need $36/bl fuel cost to break even Inability to hedge given airlines’ financial condition and dwindling liquidity

Difficult for airlines to manage a large cost that is so volatile Goldman Sachs recently said we could be entering a “super-spike” period

with prices as high as $105bbl Economy cannot support fuel costs exceeding $70/barrel

Governments will have to intervene Meanwhile, airlines continue to seek alternatives to adjust for fuel cost spike

Source: www.wtrg.com, Merrill Lynch report March 18, 2005, IATA speeches

Page 17: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

17

Fuel prices have risen dramatically this year

Reflects end of month NYMEX spot Price $/bbl

Source: www.eia.doe.gov and www.wtrg.com

$55.40/bl as of$55.40/bl as ofMar. 31, 2005 Mar. 31, 2005

$15

$25

$35

$45

$55

$65

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Pri

ce p

er b

arre

l

2002 2003 2004 2005

U.S Fuel Price is Closely Matched by Other Countries

Fuel closed at high of $56.72 in Mar 05

Page 18: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

18

Best hedged airlines* maintain a cost advantage over those with no hedging position In Europe, Lufthansa, Iberia, Air France and British Airways are

about 50% hedged Qantas is hedged for 70% at $31 until June, Thai Airways for 50%,

and SIA 45% at $41 Southwest has 85%of fuel requirements hedged at $26, and Alaska

has 50% at $29.87 Airlines not hedged are exposed to the higher cost of fuel

In North America: Delta, United, US Airways, Continental, American In Europe: Ryanair and Swiss hedges expired Many of Asia’s LCC’s don’t hedge at all

Plan to weather the storm

Hedging fuel costs has helped some carriers

* Indicates percentage of fuel hedged for Full Year 2005 unless stated otherwise

Page 19: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

19

Many global airlines are just beginning to feel impact of fuel costs as a result of their strong currency vis-à-vis the US dollar

Airlines are implementing or increasing fuel surcharges to off-set fuel costs European carriers have been able to off-set 1/3 of fuel costs

through fuel surcharges Cathay Pacific increased fuel surcharge in May by 40% for

international and 35% for regional, while Japan Airlines and ANA saw 5% increases

U.S. airlines are added several small fare increases

Hedging fuel costs has helped some carriers

Page 20: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

20

Airline Performance by Geographic Region

Page 21: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

21

European Airlines Face Fewer Challenges

Source: Traffic & Capacity data is for AEA

AEA airlines estimate a break-even year up to an operating loss of between $500M in 2004 Much improved performance over 2003 loss of $1.5B and

$800M in 2002 In fact, the top European flag carriers earned a $319M profit in 2003

Traffic increased 9.0% in 2004 Capacity increased 7.3% for the year

Trunk carriers add capacity to maintain market share Yields continued to face pressure from low cost carrier growth

and price discounting from full service airlines Pressure from North America capacity plans and aggressive fares LCCs compete against each other for market share Are there too many low cost carriers in Europe?

Eastern European states’ admission to EU fuels growth Despite some failures, new ones are continuously emerging

Note: Top flag carriers include Air France Group, British Airways, Alitalia, Iberia, Lufthansa, SAS

Page 22: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

22

European Operating Margins Saw Improvement Over 2003

*2003 Pro forma**Full year operating marginAF/KLM, Ryanair & BA 4Q04 estimates to determine FY2004 results

Source: Company Reports, includes all unusual items

2004 2003 Pts Chg.

Ryanair 29.7% 31.2% (1.5)Air France/KLM * 11.2% 9.1% 2.1British Airways 6.5% 4.0% 2.5easyjet** 4.6% 6.1% (1.5)Lufthansa 2.3% 0.2% 2.1Austrian 2.1% 2.8% (0.7)Finnair 1.0% -1.2% 2.2SAS Group -3.1% -3.8% 0.7Alitalia -9.9% -8.9% (1.0)

Page 23: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

23

Asia-Pacific Industry Experiences Robust Growth

Region estimates a $3B net profit in 2004 China’s airlines posted combined profits of $753M

• Air China, China Eastern & China Southern responsible for $651M Traffic increased 20.5% for the year on 15.5% capacity increase and is expected

to continue growing Favorable economic conditions, increasing liberalization and high consumer

confidence to continue driving growth Low Cost Carriers expected to play a major role in growth

LCC’s account for 16% of current announced orders

• Excludes unconfirmed orders & LCC operators finalizing launch plans China to be a major market over the next two years

Aviation regulation will be ease as demand for air travel explodes China begins approving applications for privately owned airlines China leads world in aircraft orders

1,790 planes in the next 20 years

Page 24: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

24

Asia-Pacific Operating MarginsBenefit from Economic Growth

Source: Company Reports

2004 2003 Pts Chg.

EVA Airways* 15.3% 13.1% 2.2Thai Airways 14.6% 13.8% 0.8Virgin Blue* 14.5% 15.2% (0.7)Cathay Pacific 13.4% 7.5% 5.9Singapore Airlines 11.3% 4.7% 6.6Qantas 9.7% 5.6% 4.1ANA 6.6% 1.3% 5.3JAL Group 2.8% -2.0% 4.8Malaysia Airlines 2.7% 0.4% 2.4

*Full Year data is Oct 2003 through September 2004

Page 25: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

25

Latin American airlines have lost over $3B between 2001 and 2004 Represent 5% of worldwide traffic but 10% of industry losses

Privatized airports charge fees realizing 30-40% returns Taxes represent 25.6% of airline ticket

Region attempts to turn losing trend around Smaller airlines plagued by weak local economies, currency devaluations,

and limited access to capital Do not have cross border alliances common to Latin America’s larger airlines

As economy picks up, Venezuela see signs of rapid recovery Previous 40% drop in market attributed to political unrest, poor economy

Brazil’s new bankruptcy law is a relief for troubled carriers Financially troubled airlines can renegotiate debts and stay out of bankruptcy Varig will negotiate $2.6B debt and take on new equity investors

Avianca and Aerolineas Argentinas exit bankruptcy Chile approves new offshoot of Aerolineas Argentinas

Multi-national alliances, TACA and LAN, have been very successful

Latin American industry continues to strive for recovery

Page 26: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

26

North American Aviation Continues to Face Challenges

U.S. Major airlines post a net loss of $5.5B in 2004 Losses of $30B from 2001 through 2004 Progress in cost reduction initiatives wiped out by increasing fuel costs

Labor has provided approximately 75% of savings in bankruptcies and restructurings

Despite an increase in revenues, yields are still down Analysts forecasting losses of $5B in 2005 and $1.1B in 2006

U.S. traffic increased 14.2% in 2004 Low fares stimulate demand but weighs on yields

Capacity was up 8.1% for the year US trunk carriers plan to switch capacity from domestic to international

routes as these yields are improving LCC’s expand domestic network as they venture into major airports

Aloha joins US Airways, United, ATA and Hawaiian in bankruptcy Delta expects significant losses in 2005 and hints at bankruptcy

Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report

Page 27: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

27

Losses Continue in North America

Source: Company Press Releases includes all unusual items including restructuring costs

Full Calendar Year 2004 Operating Margins

2004 2003 Pts Chg.

Southwest 8.5% 8.1% 0.3America West -0.8% 1.4% -2.2American -0.8% -4.8% 4.1Continental -2.4% 2.3% -4.6Alaska -2.9% -0.7% -2.2Northwest -4.5% -2.6% -1.8United -4.7% -9.1% 4.4US Airways -5.3% -3.6% -1.7Air Canada -8.5% -8.2% -0.3Delta -22.1% -5.6% -16.5

Page 28: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

28

LCC Growth and Industry Impact

Page 29: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

29

LCCs continue to grow at a phenomenal rate

Concept remains popular and continues to grow While some emerging carriers do not survive, a large number of

new carriers continue to appear Strong LCC growth expected for Eastern Europe Gol is a rising star in Latin America and Cintra’s Aerocaribe is

expected to be re-launched in May Concept is beginning to take off in China and India

LCC’s continue to gain market share in U.S Top 4 carriers* control 65% of LCC market share

Firm aircraft orders to expand capacity 52%

LCC segment expected to account for 45% of both domestic US and intra-European passengers by 2009

Asia is prime for LCC entry 26 newcomers expected in 2005

*AirTran, Southwest, Frontier, JetBlue

Source: Airline Business Magazine, March 2005; Airwise news; theaustraliannews.com

Page 30: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

30

Laws of Darwinism applied to airline industry

“Survival of the Fittest” plays out as LCC’s battle for market share Rivals Ryanair and easyjet control 75% of European LCC market

Easyjet plans to increase fleet 62% over the next 3 years Ryanair plans to double in size in the next 10 years

LCC’s evolve as next phase includes plans for long-haul carriers Aer Lingus considers trans-Atlantic carrier Canadian carrier Zoom is running profitably after June 2002 launch SkyLink is next planning to operate from North America Hong Kong plans for Oasis Hong Kong Airlines and WOW Airlines

Some LCC airlines are down but not out… Volareweb* to resume operations in April after ceasing operations

in Nov. Wizz Air secures €25M assistance

…While we must wait to see if other airlines will be revived Jetsgo, Lagun Air, Air Polonia, V-Bird

Air Polonia and V-Bird are working on rescue plans to secure new funding and restart services

*Volare Group is resuming operations which also contains 2 leisure carriers

Page 31: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

31

Airlines Develop Strategies to Compete with LCCs

Page 32: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

32

Established/Trunk Airlines Are Responding

US major airlines deal with the threat by: Restructuring mostly through cost reductions, majority of

savings comes from labor Setting up own low cost operation Shifting capacity to more profitable international routes

Better yields due to the lack of LCC competition Fuel costs have eroded much of the progress

Legacy carriers in Asia-Pacific arena take LCC threat seriously as they branch out with their own budget airlines Budget airlines in the Southeast Asian region could easily grab

30% of the market in just a few years, as Virgin Blue did in Australia

ANA creates LCC entrant, Air Next launching June 1 APAA suggests that members prepare for LCC competition

Page 33: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

33

Established/Trunk Airlines Are Responding

European traditional carriers have few choices in response to LCC’s Approximately 65 LCC’s are operating in Europe As profitable operation becomes more challenging, Chapter 11

protection from creditors is not an option Airlines forced to solve problems, merge or go under EU’s “One time, last time” rule allow countries to bail out their

carriers only once Latin America has emerging LCC’s with Gol gaining strength

Airline restructuring in the region has been the result of growing economies and increasing demand

Need for defensive strategies against LCC’s not yet addressed

Page 34: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

34

Industry pressure impacting LCCs

Some restructuring may succeed as LCCs appear not to be indestructible Ryanair reports its first quarter loss in 13 years of operation JetBlue sees profit margin dipping Southwest offers all employees a severance package option

Would have posted past losses if not for aggressive hedging policy

Easyjet files formal complaint against Air France/KLM merger European trunk carriers protest LCC’s receiving government

incentives to attract low-cost business to their regions Estimated aid worth €10 - €17 per ticket

A few European LCC’s have failed, could more be on the way? Competition for market share anticipates “blood shed”

Page 35: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

35

How is LCC Growth Affecting Industry?

LCC growth undermines attempts to maintain capacity discipline Rapid growth results in overcapacity - too many choices Keeping fares depressed Results in challenges for higher cost, established trunk carriers

Given differences in structure established trunk carriers can not become LCCs Network and fleet differences Seniority of work force Full service vs. no frills

Who will survive? Will depend on competition, capitalization and ability to sustain a

positive business plan “Survival of the fittest”

Consolidation Elimination of capacity

Page 36: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

36

What Else Can Airlines Do?

Page 37: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

37

Airlines Work on Programs that Strive for Profitability

Consolidation Mergers Alliances

Low Cost Divisions or Subsidiaries Comprehensive Restructuring Programs Court Assisted Restructuring Fleet Revitalization Programs

Page 38: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

38

Airlines Recognize Efficiencies through Consolidation

Europe AF and KLM

Partnership is recognizing cost savings ahead of schedule Lufthansa’s acquisition of Swiss approved by shareholders

Mirror the AF/KLM merger where each maintains existing brand identity

BA and Iberia evaluating a similar deal British Airways currently owns 9%

SN Brussels and Virgin Express Transaction planned to be complete in 1Q05

Will consist of a joint holding company based in Brussels SN receives majority stake 70.1% and Virgin takes remaining

29.9% Continue to operate separate brands for up to 2 years

SAS plans to eventually acquire 100% of airBaltic and Estonian Air Take advantage of low operational costs are competitive with

established low cost carriers Currently holds 49% of Estonian and 47.2% of airBaltic

Page 39: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

39

Latin America LAN to acquire state owned LAFSA as well as the brand and

route of a carrier in Argentina LAN will form a new holding company, Lan Argentina LAN has been in talks to acquire or form an extensive alliance

with Argentina’s Southern Winds which is in bankruptcy Talks broke off in June with small Argentina airline American

Falcon Already successful with LanPeru

AeroRepublica and COPA to develop an equity alliance Jointly develop common strategies and policies in all phases of

operations, finance and marketing Operate independently under their own managements and

brands

Airlines Recognize Efficiencies through Consolidation

Page 40: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

40

Asia-Pacific Cathay Pacific/ Air China/ Dragonair cooperation

Exploring opportunities to develop closer cooperation in various business and operational areas

Japan Air Lines and Japan Air System Started the mergers in Asia

Nothing in the U.S. yet ATA Will carriers consolidation follow trend of international

peers?

Airlines Recognize Efficiencies through Consolidation

Page 41: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

41

Global Alliances Continue to be a source of additional Cost Savings and new Revenue Opportunities

World Share of Scheduled TrafficWorld Share of Scheduled Traffic

21.9%

15.4%

19.1%

43.6%

Source: Airline Business, July 2004

Oneworld

Star Alliance

SkyTeam

Unaligned

Increased since last Increased since last year due to tremendous year due to tremendous traffic growth in Asia-traffic growth in Asia-Pacific & Middle East Pacific & Middle East marketsmarkets

Alliances battle to gain members in Asia-Pacific and Middle East as Alliances battle to gain members in Asia-Pacific and Middle East as traffic in those regions are growing faster than anyplace else and traffic in those regions are growing faster than anyplace else and almost all carriers are not formally attached to a specific alliancealmost all carriers are not formally attached to a specific alliance

Unaligned shareUnaligned sharewas 28.5% last yearwas 28.5% last year

Page 42: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

42

Trunk Carriers look to Low Cost subsidiaries for profitability

Just to name a few: United Airlines Ted Delta Air Lines Song Volare Group Volareweb Air Canada Tango

Zip Singapore Airlines Tiger LOT Polish Centralwings Bmi british midland bmibaby Lufthansa Eurowings Germanwings Japan Air Lines JALways Qantas Australian Airlines `

JetConnectJetStar Asia

Page 43: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

43

Several European Airlines Have Multi-year Restructuring Programs

Iberia has established strategies/goals for market growth and profitability Maintain leadership position in the Europe-Latin American market Develop competitive service and prices in Domestic and European point-to-

point routes Improve competitive cost base Manage the portfolio of airline related businesses efficiently

Lufthansa’s “D-Check” program was launched in Spring 2001 and focuses on 4 main areas External providers Internal providers Production framework & processes Staff cost reduction through increased productivity

British Airways plan emphasizes the need to “Simplify the Business” Develop a high performing organization Deliver a competitive cost base Maintain the best UK based network and schedule

Page 44: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

44

Austrian Airlines began its “Break Even Turnaround Program 2001 Network expansion - “Focus East” Successful cost and capital management Implementation of various strategic initiatives

Alitalia develops new 2005-2008 Business Plan Recover market share Close CASK gap Realign load factor performance Financial turnaround

SAS “Turnaround” Program Structural cost savings Revenue stabilization Capacity cost adjustments

AF/KLM virtual merger allows for efficiencies in revenue and cost management

Several European Airlines Have Multi-year Restructuring Programs

Page 45: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

45

North American Airlines forced to use bankruptcy court to reorganize costs

Several airlines have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy: United, US Airways (twice in as many years), Air Canada, ATA, Hawaiian, AlohaGoal is to eliminate or reduce debt

Vendors and lenders negotiate new agreements with airlines Process allows airlines to disregard contractual labor

agreements Labor groups agree to deep cuts for fear of the wages and work rules

airlines would enforce through the court Airlines walking away from Employees’ Defined Retirement Plans

PBGC takes over payments offering a fraction of anticipated payments

Major restructuring continuing More focus on cost reductions than anywhere else

Page 46: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

46

Industry Outlook

Page 47: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

47

Industry hopes for a profitable 2005 dwindling due to high fuel prices

World airline industry was hoping for a profit in 2005 Previous profit forecast of $1-2B now doubtful due to fuel costs Expecting revenues of $350B up from $316B in 2003

International traffic forecasted to grow 7.2% in 2005 and 6% in 2006

Recovery in Europe and the US will not be as robust as the rest of the world Near-breakeven results elevated by the strongly profitable low-cost

carrier segment Asia Pacific region continues to be bright spot

LCCs are moving into Asia-Pacific but increased demand can withstand the near term capacity growth

Source: IATA, www.wtrg.com

Page 48: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

48

International Traffic Expected to Continue to Rebound

Scheduled International Passenger Traffic Growth and Forecasts

Measured in PKP’s (Passenger Kilometers Performed)

Source: IATA Passenger Forecast 2004-2008, November 2004

2004 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E

World 11.0% 5.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0%Africa 8.3% 5.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.2%Asia/Pacific 16.7% 6.8% 5.7% 5.1% 4.5%Europe 8.6% 5.2% 4.6% 4.2% 3.8%Lat. America/Caribbean 9.0% 5.7% 5.2% 4.6% 4.1%Middle East 16.4% 6.4% 5.6% 5.0% 4.4%North America 8.8% 5.9% 5.2% 4.4% 3.9%

Page 49: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

49

Demand returns but challenge remains in yields and financial condition

Capacity and traffic balance is key Carriers are adding capacity for fear of losing market share LCC expansion to continue

Overcapacity will keep yields down Deteriorating balance sheets will take a long time to

improve Fuel prices continue to have a significant negative

impact on bottom line Significant overall recovery not expected before 2006

2005 and 2006 will see continued major structural changes around the world

U.S. not expected to see any recovery until 2007

Page 50: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

50

Revenue enhancement strategiesFew alternatives in this low fare, low yield environment

Too much competition Increased use of internet is a deterrent Increased code-sharing and reliance on alliances

Cost Reductions Labor will continue to be a target Fuel price volatility will affect timing of strategies Consolidation

What will airlines do to survive?

Page 51: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

51

Impact of Industry Restructuring on Collective Bargaining

Page 52: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

52

Restructuring will continue to focus on labor costs

Cost factor over which airlines have most control Business plans around the world all focus on “cost

reductions or efficiencies” Managements continue to be very aggressive in their

strategy to reduce labor costs Wage reductions are higher Productivity is a key goal – especially in competing

with emerging low cost carriers Nothing is sacred anymore

Pension costs are key target in North America and Europe

Page 53: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

53

Management attitude toward labor is negative

Goal is to reduce wages, working conditions and benefits to lowest common denominator Even for those airlines that are profitable Use of expectation of deterioration in market share and

performance to target reductions If it doesn’t work the first time, they’ll come back with

full expectation that labor will give more Threat level increases Collaborative process less common

Page 54: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

54

What can we do to protect our interests?

Stay informed Be prepared

Three step approach: analysis, direction, negotiation Financially

Challenge management to do their job: Business plans will not succeed if their sole focus is

cost reductions Pilot costs average 8-12% of total operating expenses Comprehensive restructuring is necessary

Challenge government

Page 55: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

55

The Missing Link - Labor

A balanced approach to collective bargaining Pension reform Consolidation and labor protective provisions Consistent government policies

Page 56: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

56

Thank You

Page 57: 1 Global Airline Industry Overview Ana McAhron-Schulz IFALPA Industrial Advisor April 2005.

57

INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF AIRLINE PILOTS’ ASSOCIATIONS

ANNUAL CONFERENCE

“Airline Development

Current and Future Challenges”Chief Executive

John T. Morrison

Airlines Association of Southern Africa

Arabella Sheraton Hotel Cape Town, South Africa


Recommended