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Goldratt’s Thinking Goldratt’s Thinking Process and Systems Process and Systems ThinkingThinking
James R. BurnsJames R. Burns
July 31, 2007July 31, 2007
5/28/2002
THEORY OF THEORY OF CONSTRAINTS: CONSTRAINTS: GOLDRATTGOLDRATT
1. Identify the system constraints1. Identify the system constraints2. Decide how to exploit the system 2. Decide how to exploit the system
constraintsconstraints3. Subordinate everything else to 3. Subordinate everything else to
that decisionthat decision4. Elevate the system constraints4. Elevate the system constraints5. When this creates new 5. When this creates new
constraints, go back to step 1constraints, go back to step 1
3 5/28/2002
Reference(s)Reference(s)
Dettmer, H. William, Dettmer, H. William, Goldratt’s Goldratt’s Theory of ConstraintsTheory of Constraints, ASQ, , ASQ, 1997.1997.
5/28/2002
THE ISSUES ARE:THE ISSUES ARE:
What to change?What to change?• {What is the core problem?}{What is the core problem?}
What to change to?What to change to?• {Where to look for the breakthrough {Where to look for the breakthrough
idea?}idea?} How to effect the change?How to effect the change?
• {How to bridge from a breakthrough {How to bridge from a breakthrough idea to a full solution?}idea to a full solution?}
5/28/2002 5
Goldratt’s TP (Thinking Goldratt’s TP (Thinking Process)Process)
An excellent methodology to An excellent methodology to facilitate sessions during the facilitate sessions during the initiation phase (definition and initiation phase (definition and conceptualization stage) of a conceptualization stage) of a projectproject
5/28/2002
Strategy for changeStrategy for change
Create the treeCreate the tree Critique the treeCritique the tree
5/28/2002
Why trees??Why trees??
To get a complete picture of what To get a complete picture of what is going onis going on
To model all of the causation To model all of the causation involvedinvolved
To see what is related to whatTo see what is related to what To identify the core problemTo identify the core problem To validate a proposed injectionTo validate a proposed injection
5/28/2002
What to change?What to change?
Team constructs a current reality Team constructs a current reality tree (CRT)tree (CRT)
Team starts by listing all Team starts by listing all undesirable effects (UDE’s)undesirable effects (UDE’s)
Team inter-relates these by use of a Team inter-relates these by use of a tree, called a CRTtree, called a CRT
In the current reality tree, the team In the current reality tree, the team traces UDE’s back to a traces UDE’s back to a core core problem problem (CP)(CP)
5/28/2002
EXAMPLES OF UDE’sEXAMPLES OF UDE’s
Due dates are often missedDue dates are often missed It is difficult to respond to urgent It is difficult to respond to urgent
demandsdemands There is too much expeditingThere is too much expediting Inventory levels are too highInventory levels are too high There are frequent material There are frequent material
shortagesshortages Safety stocks are inadequateSafety stocks are inadequate
5/28/2002 10
Symptoms, Root Causes & Symptoms, Root Causes & a Core Problema Core Problem
Rather than reacting to symptoms, Rather than reacting to symptoms, we should be finding root causeswe should be finding root causes
We consider undesirable effects to We consider undesirable effects to be symptomsbe symptoms
We look for a “common cause” We look for a “common cause” that is the source for most of the that is the source for most of the undesirable effectsundesirable effects
11 5/28/2002
A CRT for software A CRT for software developmentdevelopment
Only 28% of software projects are Only 28% of software projects are successful—on-time, within budget successful—on-time, within budget and with full functionalityand with full functionality
Software projects are always the Software projects are always the slowest projects to be completedslowest projects to be completed• TI merged two divisions of the firm….TI merged two divisions of the firm….
– It took 6 months to do all logisticsIt took 6 months to do all logistics– It took 18 months to reconcile all of the It took 18 months to reconcile all of the
software differencessoftware differences
5/28/2002 12
Example Current Reality Example Current Reality TreeTree
Managing Software Development ProjectsIs rarely successful
Software DevelopmentProjects take too long
Software Development Projects cost too much
Software Development Projects have qualityproblems
A
5/28/2002 13
Software DevelopmentProjects take too long
Software Development Projects cost too much
Fixing changes takes time
There are many late-breaking changes to
requirements
Fixing changes costs money
Users discover new features they want
included in the software
Users don’t know whatthey want
Users change their
minds
Users are untrained and not sophisticated
5/28/2002 14
Users are untrained and not sophisticatedLate in the lifecycleUsers discover new features they want
included in the software
Project Managers do notutilize “early discovery”
techniques with users
Project ManagersDo not train and teach Users about software
development
Software Project ManagersAre poorly trained
And unaware of pitfalls in Software projects
Software Project Managersdo not encourage use ofwalkthroughs through
testing
Software is of poorquality and takes
Much time/money to debug
A
15 5/28/2002
We conclude….We conclude….
That the core problem is with That the core problem is with poorly trained software project poorly trained software project managersmanagers
5/28/2002 16
The next construct is the The next construct is the Evaporating Cloud {EC}Evaporating Cloud {EC}
The Evaporating Cloud is used to The Evaporating Cloud is used to address the question…address the question…
What to Change to….What to Change to….
5/28/2002
Core problems are studied Core problems are studied further by use of an further by use of an evaporating cloud evaporating cloud
Evaporating clouds (ECs) will Evaporating clouds (ECs) will surface assumptionssurface assumptions
Breaking an assumption leads to a Breaking an assumption leads to a
breakthrough called an breakthrough called an injectioninjection At this point the team is At this point the team is
unconcerned with the practicality of unconcerned with the practicality of the injectionthe injection
5/28/2002
What is an injection?What is an injection?
a solution to the core problema solution to the core problem a strategy that will mitigate all of a strategy that will mitigate all of
the UDE’s the UDE’s Injections that appear impossible Injections that appear impossible
to achieve are called to achieve are called flying pigsflying pigs
5/28/2002 19
Example Evaporating Example Evaporating CloudCloud
Many well-trainedProject ManagersAre available now
Training takesmuch time/money,
requires trainers
Project Manager expertise is
required now
InstantProject Manager
expertise required
Project training islong and arduous
5/28/2002 20
What have we learned What have we learned from the EC above?from the EC above?
Many expert project managers are Many expert project managers are needed nowneeded now
Creating well-trained project Creating well-trained project managers takes timemanagers takes time
Instant project management Instant project management expertise is required nowexpertise is required now
SOLUTION: Expert system for SOLUTION: Expert system for project managementproject management
5/28/2002 21
INJECTIONINJECTION
Create a PM expert systemCreate a PM expert system• An advisory system that novice An advisory system that novice
Project Managers can seek and obtain Project Managers can seek and obtain advice from.advice from.
5/28/2002
What to change to?What to change to?
From the CRT and ECs, a Future From the CRT and ECs, a Future Reality Tree (FRT) is constructedReality Tree (FRT) is constructed
One purpose of the Future Reality One purpose of the Future Reality Tree is to validate that the Tree is to validate that the injection will achieve the desired injection will achieve the desired effects (DE’s)effects (DE’s)
5/28/2002
Examples of DE’sExamples of DE’s
Due dates are rarely Due dates are rarely missedmissed
Demands are met 99% Demands are met 99% of the timeof the time
There is little expeditingThere is little expediting Inventory levels are lowInventory levels are low There are no material There are no material
shortagesshortages Production lead times Production lead times
are short or satisfactoryare short or satisfactory
Due date perf. is highDue date perf. is high Customers rely on Customers rely on
quick responsesquick responses There is little There is little
expeditingexpediting Inventory levels are Inventory levels are
reduced significantlyreduced significantly Material is available Material is available
when neededwhen needed Customers rely on Customers rely on
quick responsesquick responses
5/28/2002
Building the Future Reality Building the Future Reality TreeTree
Start by turning the UDE’s around and Start by turning the UDE’s around and writing them with a positive tone as DE’swriting them with a positive tone as DE’s
Place DE’s at the top of the limbs in the Place DE’s at the top of the limbs in the FRTFRT
At the bottom of the FRT place the At the bottom of the FRT place the injectioninjection
Building the FRT is a two-phase processBuilding the FRT is a two-phase process• Build considering only positive, ideal links, Build considering only positive, ideal links,
and assuming win/win strategiesand assuming win/win strategies• Add negative loops laterAdd negative loops later
5/28/2002
What to change to, What to change to, Cont’d?Cont’d?
The idea here is to get a picture of The idea here is to get a picture of how an injection (a breakthrough) how an injection (a breakthrough) might affect the overall might affect the overall performance of the system.performance of the system.
The Future Reality Tree is the The Future Reality Tree is the validation that a collection of validation that a collection of injections will turn all of the UDE’s injections will turn all of the UDE’s into DE’sinto DE’s
5/28/2002 26
Future Reality TreeFuture Reality Tree for our examplefor our example
Managing Software Development ProjectsIs usually successful
Software DevelopmentProjects take reasonable lengths of time
Software Development Projects aren’t too costly
Software Development Projects create qualityproducts
A
5/28/2002 27
Software DevelopmentProjects take too long
Software Development Projects cost too much
There are many late-breaking changes to
requirements
Fixing changes costs money
Users discover new features they want
included in the software
Users don’t know whatthey want
Users change their
minds
Users are untrained and not sophisticated
Software DevelopmentProjects take too long
Software Development Projects cost too much
There are many late-breaking changes to
requirements
Fixing changes costs money
Users discover new features they want
included in the software
Users don’t know whatthey want
Users change their
minds
Users are untrained and not sophisticated
Software DevelopmentProjects take reasonableLengths of time
Software Development Projects aren’t too costly
There are few late-breaking changes to
requirements
Fixing changes costs money
Users discover no new features they want
included in the software
Users don’t know whatthey want
Users rarelychange their
minds
Users are more trained and sophisticated
Fixing changes takes time
5/28/2002 28
Users are trained and sophisticatedLate in the lifecycleUsers rarely discover
features they want included in the software
Project Managers utilize “early discovery”
techniques with users
Project ManagersDo train and teach
Users about software development
Software Project Managersuse an expert systemTo avoid pitfalls in Software projects
Software Project Managersencourage use of
walkthroughs throughtesting
Software is of goodquality and dubbing
is inexpensive and quick
A
5/28/2002 29
Last Question….Last Question….
How to cause How to cause the change?the change?
We will use two more treesWe will use two more trees
5/28/2002
How to cause the change?How to cause the change?
The prerequisite treeThe prerequisite tree The transition treeThe transition tree
These help to get buy-inThese help to get buy-in These help us to develop a strategy These help us to develop a strategy
for achieving a flying pig (an for achieving a flying pig (an injection that appears impossible to injection that appears impossible to achieve or implement)achieve or implement)
5/28/2002
The Prerequisite TreeThe Prerequisite Tree
Place INJECTIONS at the topPlace INJECTIONS at the top List the obstacles that are expectedList the obstacles that are expected For each obstacle that is overcome, an For each obstacle that is overcome, an
intermediate objective is achievedintermediate objective is achieved• Each obstacle gives rise to an intermediate Each obstacle gives rise to an intermediate
objectiveobjective The intermediate objectives need to be The intermediate objectives need to be
sequencedsequenced The prerequisite tree does the sequencingThe prerequisite tree does the sequencing
5/28/2002 32
OBSTACLE INTERM. OBSTACLE INTERM. OBJECTIVEOBJECTIVE
No well-defined No well-defined ES ES
ArchitectureArchitecture
There are many There are many commercially-commercially-available ES available ES ShellsShells
Pick an Pick an appropriateappropriate
ES ArchitectureES Architecture
Select an Select an appropriate ES appropriate ES ShellShell
5/28/2002
The Prerequisite Tree, The Prerequisite Tree, Cont’dCont’d
Takes an impediment or obstacle Takes an impediment or obstacle approachapproach
This approach enables dissection This approach enables dissection of the implementation task into an of the implementation task into an array of interrelated, well-defined, array of interrelated, well-defined, intermediate objectivesintermediate objectives
5/28/2002 34
The Prerequisite TreeThe Prerequisite TreeOur ExampleOur Example
Create Project Management
Expert System
Test Project Management
Expert System
A
Objective
5/28/2002 35
Construct Project Management
Expert System
Select Expert System Shell
Codify PM Body of Knowledge
into Expert System Shell
Obtain PM Body of Knowledge
Decide upon
Expert System
Architecture
A
No well-defined PM Body of Knowledge
No well-defined ES Architecture
5/28/2002
The Transition TreeThe Transition Tree
We know where we standWe know where we stand We identified the core problemWe identified the core problem We found an injection (one or more) We found an injection (one or more)
that produces the desired effectsthat produces the desired effects We found the milestones of the We found the milestones of the
journey--the intermediate objectives journey--the intermediate objectives (IO’s)(IO’s)
The question now is The question now is What specific What specific actions must we take?actions must we take?
5/28/2002
The Transition Tree, The Transition Tree, Cont’dCont’d
We must focus, not on what we plan We must focus, not on what we plan to do but on what we plan to to do but on what we plan to accomplishaccomplish
For each IO, a specific action or set of For each IO, a specific action or set of actions are determined and initiatedactions are determined and initiated
Causing a specific change in reality is Causing a specific change in reality is the imperativethe imperative
The transition tree provides a ROAD The transition tree provides a ROAD MAP for getting from here to there!MAP for getting from here to there!
5/28/2002 38
The Four-Element The Four-Element Transition TreeTransition Tree
Expected effect
Condition of reality
Unfulfilled need
Specific action
5/28/2002 39
Expected effect
Condition of reality
Unfulfilled need
Specific action
Unfilled need
Condition of reality
Unfulfilled need
Specific action
5/28/2002 40
The Transition TreeThe Transition TreeOur ExampleOur Example
Create Project Management
Expert System
Test Project Management
Expert System
A
5/28/2002 41
5/28/2002 42
That’s it for Goldratt’s That’s it for Goldratt’s Critical ThinkingCritical Thinking
To get the full version, you have to To get the full version, you have to go to New Hampshire (Goldratt go to New Hampshire (Goldratt Institute) , spend two weeks and Institute) , spend two weeks and $10,000$10,000
To learn more, please refer to…To learn more, please refer to… www.eligoldratt.comwww.eligoldratt.com