11

Hypothetical relationship Hypothetical relationship between risk source and between risk source and

factorsfactors

Hiroyuki MatsudaHiroyuki Matsuda(Yokohama National University)(Yokohama National University)

Pew Marine Conservation Fellow Pew Marine Conservation Fellow 20072007

Science Committee of DIVERSITASScience Committee of DIVERSITASJapan MAB Coordinating

Committee (Chair)WWF Japan Conservation

Committee Society for Conservation of Fisheries Resources

and Marine Environment

CoFRaME

22

OBJECTIVEOBJECTIVESS

• Ecological risks & deterioration of ecosystem services are caEcological risks & deterioration of ecosystem services are caused by unrestrained human activities (MEA 2005), it rela-teused by unrestrained human activities (MEA 2005), it rela-tes to RIHN’s principles of human-environmental interactions.s to RIHN’s principles of human-environmental interactions.

• how ecological risks impact the sustainable linkage between how ecological risks impact the sustainable linkage between agricultural/marine foods and public healthagricultural/marine foods and public health, from socio/eco-l, from socio/eco-logical perspectives, in the watershed area of Southeast Asiogical perspectives, in the watershed area of Southeast Asia. a.

• to to explore the current state of heavy metal concentrationexplore the current state of heavy metal concentration in t in the aquatic resources of the lake, its impacts on public healthe aquatic resources of the lake, its impacts on public health… to precisely track the route of pollution; h… to precisely track the route of pollution;

• to analyze long-standing presence of chemical materials in ato analyze long-standing presence of chemical materials in agricultural field, its gricultural field, its impacts on food supply and ecological chimpacts on food supply and ecological changes in material cyclesanges in material cycles (groundwater and water quality); (groundwater and water quality);

• to combine social sciences with to combine social sciences with physicalphysical naturalnatural sciences incsciences including medical science to luding medical science to devise ecological risk management devise ecological risk management for sustainable food and health linkagefor sustainable food and health linkage. .

33

My experience following J. My experience following J. NakanishiNakanishi

-- Studies to applications ---- Studies to applications --• Extinction riskExtinction risk assessment method assessment method

– Redlist of Japanese Vascular Plants (1997, 2007)Redlist of Japanese Vascular Plants (1997, 2007)

• Risk/benefit analysisRisk/benefit analysis in Env. Imp. Assess. in Env. Imp. Assess.– Aichi EXPO 2005 (2003) & Nakaikemi LNG (2002)Aichi EXPO 2005 (2003) & Nakaikemi LNG (2002)

• Adaptive management Adaptive management of deer of deer in Hokkaido in Hokkaido (1997)(1997)– Revision of Japan Wildlife Law (1999)Revision of Japan Wildlife Law (1999)

• Fisheries Fisheries co-managementco-management in Shiretoko WH in Shiretoko WH (2009)(2009)– Changing recognition of global fisheries statusChanging recognition of global fisheries status

• Field verification Field verification of zinc risk (2008)of zinc risk (2008)– ? Is zinc concentration standard appropriate ?? Is zinc concentration standard appropriate ?

• Bird strikeBird strike risk by wind farms (??) risk by wind farms (??)– Establishment of Soya & Awara WFsEstablishment of Soya & Awara WFs

taxonomist

economist

mammalogist

Social sci.

benthos, toxicologist

ornithologist

44

My Study FieldsMy Study Fields (not)(not) invited by local invited by local organizationsorganizations

Sekisei LagoonCoTs starfish

Yakushima (deer, World Heritage, MAB)

ShikokuBlack bear

Aichi (EIA for EXPO2005)

Tanzawa (deer)

Oshima(Brown bear)

Hokkaido (deer)

Shiretoko (deer, World Heritage)

Hokkaido (Sealion)

Soya (Windfarm)

JFA advisor for CITES issues1st Japanese Pew MC FellowJapan MAB Coordinating Comm.Nissui external advisorPast IWC SC Japan DeligateWWF Japan advisor

Awara (windfarm)

Lake Biwa(Cormorant,

Corbiculid clam)

Nemuro (equinococcus)

Amur-Okhotsk Consortium

AmamiRights of Nature

Mongoose Kesen-numa (Pacific saury)

Kamakura (raccoon)

Nakaikemi(EIA in wetland)

Hasama Riv (Zinc)

Chub mackerel

55

Merits of Merits of YNUYNU--RIHNRIHN collaborationcollaboration

at Lake Lagunaat Lake Laguna• Seek feasible solution based on global Seek feasible solution based on global standard & consensus building of local standard & consensus building of local communitycommunity

• Modify the global standard if necessaryModify the global standard if necessary

• Use a sound method to each case, not Use a sound method to each case, not apply our method to any case (Resident-apply our method to any case (Resident-base scientist)base scientist)

• Experience of advice to policy-makers in Experience of advice to policy-makers in JapanJapan

• SystematicSystematic collaboration between natural and so collaboration between natural and social scientistscial scientists

• Experience of Asian field studies!!Experience of Asian field studies!!– Best chance of collaborating Phillipine!!!Best chance of collaborating Phillipine!!!

66

9. Set preliminary numerical goal

10. Choose monitoring measures

11. Select method of control

Flow diagram for ecological risk Flow diagram for ecological risk managementmanagement

0. Concerns, issues

2.Delimit management scope, invite stakeholders

3.Organize local council and scientific committee

14. Initiate management

15. Continue management and monitoring

Scientific procedure

Consensus building

4.Characterize “undesired events”

5. Enumerate measures of effects

6. Analyze stress factors by modelling

7. Risk assessment for no-action case

Revision required

Reset goals when not agreed

Reset goals w

hen infeasible

8. Check necessity and purpose of management

13. Decide measures & goals 12. Check feasibility of goals

16. Review numerical goals and purposes

1. Screening

Finish program

scientistspublic

Rossberg et al. 2005 LEE

77

Difference from G-Difference from G-COECOE

Eco-risk Asia GCOEEco-risk Asia GCOE• Collaborate with NIESCollaborate with NIES

– Core Natural ScientistsCore Natural Scientists

• Education-oriented proEducation-oriented programgram

• Most of budget is useMost of budget is used in education & PDs id in education & PDs including abroadncluding abroad

Food/Agro Risk Food/Agro Risk

• Collaborate with Collaborate with RIHNRIHN– Social ScientistsSocial Scientists

• Research-oriented Research-oriented projectproject

• Most of budget is Most of budget is used in specific used in specific research including research including abroadabroad

88

Structure of this Structure of this projectproject

• Core Member Team?Core Member Team? 　　• The Environmental Risk Analysis Team. The Environmental Risk Analysis Team.

– Hiroyuki Matsuda (environmental ecology)Hiroyuki Matsuda (environmental ecology)– Shigeki Masunaga (environmental chemistry)Shigeki Masunaga (environmental chemistry)– Satoshi Nakai (human health science)Satoshi Nakai (human health science)– Borja A.C. Santos (Limnology)Borja A.C. Santos (Limnology)– Postdoc?Postdoc?– Others?Others?

• Ecosystem Degradation Evaluation TeamEcosystem Degradation Evaluation Team• Health Risk Evaluation TeamHealth Risk Evaluation Team• Socio-Economic Evaluation TeamSocio-Economic Evaluation Team

We may need task-specific collaboration among teams

99

Missions of Missions of Team 1Team 1

• To investigate the exact sources of particular pollutions, factors responsible for the pollutions, the routes of pollution and the way in the food chain,

• To evaluate poisonous level of shellfish and duck that feed on shellfish from fish farming areas due to heavy metal concentration,

• to investigate the actual conditions of the domestic animal disease, route of pollution, and probable impact on human health and the sequence of restoration,

• In the process of identification of the pollutants, inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS), gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS) and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) at YNU and isotope ratio mass spectrometer (IR - MS) at RIHN will be used.

1010

What are risks that we What are risks that we investigate?investigate?• ““Food risks”, which result from both Food risks”, which result from both

inadequate supply of food as well as poor inadequate supply of food as well as poor and contaminated quality of food, are and contaminated quality of food, are contributing significantly to the public contributing significantly to the public health risks. health risks.

• ““Agricultural risksAgricultural risks” are damages on ” are damages on agriculture product and sustainability that agriculture product and sustainability that result from soil degradation/erosion, salt result from soil degradation/erosion, salt damage, irregular water cycling, damage, irregular water cycling, flooding/drought caused by flooding/drought caused by agriculture/technology innovationagriculture/technology innovation

• ““Economical risksEconomical risks” and “” and “social conflict risksocial conflict risk” result ” result from breaking safety standard of agricultural/ fisfrom breaking safety standard of agricultural/ fisheries products (these products may not be soldheries products (these products may not be sold/exported)./exported).

• Disaster risk caused by insufficient/inappropriate Disaster risk caused by insufficient/inappropriate river managementriver management

1111

ProbleProblemsms

• There are probably too many problems that do noThere are probably too many problems that do not satisfy environmental/safety global standard.t satisfy environmental/safety global standard.

• However, fewer problems really threat on human However, fewer problems really threat on human health and ecosystem services. health and ecosystem services.

• Need to establish cost/effective measures to regNeed to establish cost/effective measures to regulate these risks in developing countries.ulate these risks in developing countries.

• To investigate a new type of (agricultural) risk thaTo investigate a new type of (agricultural) risk that stops plantation development due to a big ecolt stops plantation development due to a big ecological/health impact on reveries.ogical/health impact on reveries.– Pollution problem occurred in developed countriesPollution problem occurred in developed countries– Business risk due to too rigorous global standard.Business risk due to too rigorous global standard.

• Global environm. standard may amplify poverty.Global environm. standard may amplify poverty.• To cope with coexistence with risksTo cope with coexistence with risks• Is the current team structure really appropriate?Is the current team structure really appropriate?

121212

Environmental Risk Analysis Environmental Risk Analysis (drinking water (drinking water quality)quality)

agricultureagriculture

agriculture productsagriculture products

Human healthHuman health

ecosystemecosystem

urbanizationurbanization

riversrivers

lakes lakes

atmosphereatmosphere

soilsoil

fisheries productsfisheries products

importimport

stock farm productsstock farm products

SourceSource environmentenvironment exposureexposure End-pointEnd-point

economyeconomy

Social conflictSocial conflictdrinking waterdrinking water

minesmines

factoriesfactories

ground waterground water

• Source is either agricultural field or resident area (factory?)

• Even if groundwater height decreases, does it really concern human health?

• If quality of tap water is worse, is health risk concerned?

• If water supply decreases, is drinking water not enough?

1313

13

Environmental Risk Analysis Environmental Risk Analysis (mercury)(mercury)

agricultureagriculture

agriculture productsagriculture products

Human healthHuman health

ecosystemecosystem

urbanizationurbanization

riversrivers

lakes lakes

atmosphereatmosphere

soilsoil

fisheries productsfisheries products

importimport

stock farm productsstock farm products

SourceSource environmentenvironment exposureexposure End-pointEnd-point

• Source may be either IT or pulp industry or background.

• Is fish really contaminated?, above health standard?• If concentration in fish >> standard, does it threat

health risk (pollution problem)• Conflict between consumers and polluters may appear

at least if the contamination level is > standard.

economyeconomy

Social conflictSocial conflictdrinking waterdrinking water

minesmines

factoriesfactories

ground waterground water

141414

Environmental Risk Analysis (eutrophication)Environmental Risk Analysis (eutrophication)

agricultureagriculture

agriculture productsagriculture products

Human healthHuman health

ecosystemecosystem

urbanizationurbanization

riversrivers

lakes lakes

atmosphereatmosphere

soilsoil

Green algaeGreen algae

importimport

stock farm productsstock farm products

SourceSource environmentenvironment exposureexposure End-pointEnd-point

1. Major sources are sewage and agro-chemicals 2. Green algae threat fishes and impacts on fisheries and

human health (eating contaminated fish)3. Economic conflict between fishers and farmers/villages

if environmental regulation is too rigorous.

economyeconomy

Social conflictSocial conflictdrinking waterdrinking water

minesmines

factoriesfactories

ground waterground water

1515

Environmental Risk Analysis (eutrophication)Environmental Risk Analysis (eutrophication)

Possible solutionsPossible solutions• Propose a reasonable emission regulation Propose a reasonable emission regulation

(neither too strict nor too weak)(neither too strict nor too weak)• Seek rivers, lakes and bio-control techniquSeek rivers, lakes and bio-control techniqu

es to avoid eutrophicationes to avoid eutrophication

1616

Environmental Risk Analysis Environmental Risk Analysis (mercury)(mercury)

Possible solutionsPossible solutions• Risk communication (no further regulation) Risk communication (no further regulation)

– the meaning of contamina-tion level abov– the meaning of contamina-tion level above safety standard.e safety standard.

• If the contamination level really threats huIf the contamination level really threats human health risk, what level should be desirman health risk, what level should be desired? ed?

• Anyway, how to reduce the contamination lAnyway, how to reduce the contamination level?evel?

1717

Environmental Risk Analysis (water Environmental Risk Analysis (water quality)quality)

Possible solutionsPossible solutions

• Water management is necessary, Water management is necessary, and regulate water consumption by and regulate water consumption by farmers and residentsfarmers and residents

• Predict what will happen without Predict what will happen without water management, and use this water management, and use this prediction for risk communicationprediction for risk communication