1

Improved Water Services

Gary CarterDirector, NWS Office of Hydrologic Development

Manager, NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting ProgramJuly 9, 2009

Reducing the economic and

societal impacts of coastal

hazards, habitat loss, and coastal

pollution

2

NOAA’s Mission: Develop and deliver water forecasts and warnings to save lives and property, manage resources, and enhance America’s economy

Observations

Reservoirs, Streamflow Snow

Streamflow, Ground WaterWater Quality

Water Quality

Forecasts & WarningsPrecipitation, Snow,Streamflow, Soil Moisture, Soil Temperature, Water Temperature, Lake/Bay Levels,River & Flash Floods

Other Partners:U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Tennessee Valley Authority, Bonneville Power Administration, and state, regional, and local cooperators

Water LevelsRain/Snow

Federal Water Partners

3

• Water is the lifeblood of this planet. All known forms of life require water to survive. Long-term viability of municipal water supplies and

critical ecosystems are at risk. Imperatives include managing fish and wildlife

habitats, maintaining quality of rivers, lakes, wetlands, groundwater and estuaries, and building community resilience to water extremes.

• Triple Threat: Scarcity and floods, climate change, and aging infrastructure

Steady population growth in the most vulnerable areas near rivers and streams High Impact

Consequently, the value of infrastructure and economic activity within the floodplain has increased

Climate change continues to augment the variability and frequency of extremes in temperature and precipitation

• Floods and droughts cause more U.S. economic losses than any other type of natural disaster.

Floods claim more than 90 lives each year, exceeding any other severe weather phenomenon

Average annual flood damages exceed $7B Flood fighting/mitigation can cost hundreds of millions

per event (e.g. Fargo ND, 2009: $200M)

• Water has always been a critical component in the success of any economic endeavor.

Virtually every business has a water imperative: manufacturing, agriculture, and energy production rely on a steady supply of water.

Rapid growth of water as a market driver is expected to continue (e.g. IBM estimates water management will soon be a $20B industry)

The National Imperative for Water Services

Protect Life and Property Support Economic Security

Protect Health and Environment Mitigate Escalating Risk

NOAA is committed to saving lives while reducing impacts to people and economic activity 3

4

Water Services Improvement Plan:Responding to the National Imperative

The three business areas of NOAA’s Integrated Water Forecasting Program are aimed at producing a seamless suite of

water forecast information, covering:

with increased emphasis on climate-related impacts for arid and coastal watersheds.

Floods Droughts

Short-termWarnings

SeasonalOutlooks

Key Business Areas

Summit Sea

5

Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program Services Objectives

NOAA’s Role: Provide accurate and reliable water forecasts (where, when, and how much)

Provide flood inundation forecast maps for 100% of high-impact river and

coastal communities

Reduce 1-7 day river forecast errors by 50%

and quantify uncertainty

Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service

(AHPS)

Rivers and Floods

Couple modeling systems for rivers, lakes

and estuaries

Coast, Estuary, River Information Services

(CERIS)

Coasts, Lakes and Estuaries

Provide seamless suite of summit-to-sea high

resolution water quantity and quality forecasts

Integrated Water Resources Science and

Services(IWRSS)

Water Resources

Advance and integrate observing systems for

water resources

Objective 1

Objective 2

Objective 3 Objective 4

Objective 5

5

6

Deliver a seamless suite of information from the “Summit to the Sea” to address growing demands for water forecasts

Coast, Estuary, River Information Services - CERIS

Coastal communities use critical water information about their watersheds, rivers, estuaries and coasts to mitigate natural hazards, and manage water resources and ecosystems

NOAA provides this integrated suite of information to users in ways that are understandable, useable, and easily accessible In 2007, shore-adjacent counties accounted for:• 18% of the nation’s land area• 36% of the U.S. population• 42% of the national economic output

7

NOAANOAAResearch

Ocean Service

• Aligning multi-agency collaboration is essential– Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of consistent water

resources monitoring and forecast information – summit to sea– Sustain quality of life and the natural environment– “No water agency can meet the full array of climate change-induced

water problems on its own”

USGSUSGS

USACEUSACE

Weather Service

Satellite Service

Hydraulic Engineering Center

Water Resources Institute

Remote Sensing Centers

Cold Regions Research Lab

Water Science Centers

Geography Discipline

Water Discipline

Partnership for Integrated Water Resources Science and Services

8

Water Services Gaps:River Forecasting

Gap Improvement Objectives

Low Flows: Current forecast system for high flows (e.g. floods) must be enhanced to address low flows in support of navigation/barge traffic, saltwater intrusion in coastal rivers, and drought-affected areas. Objective #1

Reduce 1-7 day river forecast errors by 50% and quantify uncertainty

Objective #2Provide dynamic flood inundation forecast maps for 100% of high-impact river and coastal communities

Complex Hydrology: Need forecasting tools for advanced, complex and extreme hydrologic situations to better model and support levee and dam breaks, bridge obstructions, ice jams, and overland flooding events.

Knowledge of Uncertainty: Need additional ensemble forecast and diagnostic verification capabilities to better communicate risks to decision makers.

Dynamic Flood Inundation: Need capability to generate dynamic flood inundation maps routinely and in real-time, with advanced spatial models and high resolution data, to better represent and communicate the areal extent and depth of flood waters.

9

Water Services Gaps:Water Forecasting

Gap Improvement Objectives

Forecast Coverage: In addition to current service locations on major rivers, need capability to:• generate water analyses and forecasts for entire watersheds (gridded) at high space-time resolution, and• couple river models with estuary models to improve and expand forecast information for coastal populations and ecosystems.

Objective #3Couple modeling systems for rivers, lakes and estuaries

Objective #4Provide seamless suite of summit-to-sea high resolution water quantity and quality forecasts

Forecast Variables: Need to expand services beyond current river flow and stage forecasts to include forecasts of all major water budget variables (e.g., snowpack, evaporation, soil moisture, soil temperature, snow water equivalent) and forecasts of water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and nutrients.

Geospatial Decision Support: Need extensive geospatial decision-support data service capabilities to provide decision makers “GIS-ready” information.

10

Water Services Gaps:Water Observations

Gap Improvement Objectives

River Observing Systems: Need robust, secure river gauging programs (e.g. SECURE Water Act) and river gauges on smaller tributary streams and in critical zones, to better account for tidal influences and improve forecast reach and accuracy.

Objective #5Advance and integrate observing systems for water resources

Surface Observing Systems: Need extensive, spatially optimized surface observations of key water variables (e.g., snow water equivalent, soil moisture and temperature, evaporation, and frost depth) to improve water modeling system and forecast accuracy.

Remote Observing Systems: Need to expand use of satellite data in hydrologic forecasts and plan to incorporate data from new systems optimized for water to help reduce uncertainty in forecasts and improve accuracy.

11

Annual Funding to Support IWRSS and Next-Generation Water Services

(preliminary estimates)

NOAA’s ObjectivePlanned

Enhancements2011 – 2015

Required Enhancements

2012 – 2016

RecurringO&M Costs

Beyond 20161. 50% Reduction in 1-7 day Flood

Forecast Error and Quantify Uncertainty (NWS and OAR)

$4M $30M $20M

2. Flood Forecast Inundation Map Coverage for 100% High-impact communities (NWS and NOS)

Pilot Demonstrations

with Partners$15M $5M

3. Coupled modeling systems for rivers, lakes, estuaries (NWS, NOS, OAR, NESDIS)

$3M $15M $5M

4. Seamless suite of summit-to-sea water resources forecasts (NWS, NOS, OAR)

$4M $20M $5M

5. Advance and integrate observing systems for water resources (NWS, NOS, OAR, NESDIS)

$4M $20M $5M

Total $15M $100M $40M

11

12

Minimum Recurring Annual Benefit$1,000M

Energy$100MHydropower comprises 75% of Nation’s renewable energy

• CA research study indicates potential increase of 18% with full use of improved probabilistic forecasts

• <1% increase in production yields estimated benefit

Transportation$200MRiver commerce transports 90% of Nation’s grain

• Generates $13.4B in annual spending• 1.5% increased efficiencies

Agriculture$300MU.S. Agriculture: 80% of fresh water consumption

• Balance selective withdrawals for irrigation, regional water supply and fisheries

Flooding$400MAnnual Flood Losses

• Temporary levees cost $1M per mile• Damage reduction via more efficient and effective mitigation

Water Services Improvement Plan:Bottom Line Outcomes

Minimum Additional Benefits/Year Examples