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Inmarsat SwiftBroadband:Capability to Support

Aeronautical Safety Services

Nikos Fistas, Phil Platt

ACP Working Group C10th Meeting,13-17 March 2006, Montreal

European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

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EUROCONTROL Study

EUROCONTROL launched study at end 2004 with the aim ... “of helping the aviation community to assess how Aero-BGAN could

improve its communication infrastructure in fulfilling the aviation requirements, what would be the resulting concept of operation in different world regions, what are the expected associated cost, and how major institutional and business issues would be solved.”

AeroBGAN now called SwiftBroadband

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Study Consortium

Contract awarded to a consortium with key industry partners to carry out the study QinetiQ - leader Inmarsat SITA Thales Avionics EADS Astrium

Consultation with Stakeholders e.g. through NexSAT SG, AEEC and ANASTASIA

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Study Overview

WP1 – Technical Characteristics of SwiftBroadband and its potential to support ATS applications

WP2 – Institutional Issues WP3 – Airborne Architectures WP4 – Cost and Charges WP5 – Executive Summary

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WP1 – Report Overview

Overview of BGAN describedSwiftBroadband features described:

Key points; Edge of coverage performance, beam and satellite transition capabilities, narrow spot beam activationPotential for investigation into ‘fall-back’ service in event of SwiftBroadband outage

Comparison with NexSAT HLMR, COCRIdentify shortcomings in SBBPossible upgrades described

Priority, pre-emption and precedenceParty line using 3G multicast

NotePerformance programme with production standard equipment now completed, SwiftBroadband avionics data available circa. mid 2007 data not available during the course of the project – BGAN Beta testAnnex with more detail on channel and coding rates supplied

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WP1 - Packet Switched Service

Data rates up to 432kbit/s High Speed internet access available globally from small

terminals for all mobiles Based on IPv4 Performance enhanced by TCP/IP accelerator to compensate for

satellite delay DSL-class internet access Radio Resource Management (RRM) to maintain minimum data rates

as required

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WP1 - Circuit Switched Services:Voice and Data

Direct Dial Voice Service Optimised 4 kb/s “AMBE+2” codec global access and mobility (+870 77…)

Voicemail Services Standard UMTS Supplementary Services ISDN Bearer Services (same as Swift64)

64 kb/s UDI Service to terrestrial ISDN networks 3.1kHz Audio Service for PCM voice, fax, and V-series modem support

Text Messaging send to or receive from any SMS-capable device

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WP1 - Terminal Types

Aero low gain BGAN• tbd kbit /s rx

• tbd kbit /s tx

Aero L - global•1.2 kbit /s PMD

• Safety services

Aero I BGAN•200 – 344 kbit/s rx

•192 – 332 kbit/s tx

Aero I - regional•2.4 kbit /s fax and data

•4.8 kbit /s X.25

• Safety services

Aero high gain BGAN•266 – 422 kbit/s rx

•332 – 492 kbit/s tx

Swift 64 - regional• 64kbit/s ISDN & MPDS

Aero H/H+ - global• Voice, fax, PM data

• Safety services

BGAN ModeExisting mode

Low gain (Class 4 UT)*• 36 - 50 kbit/s rx• 21 - 55 kbit/s tx

Aero L - global•1.2 kbit /s PMD

• Safety services

Int. gain (Class 7 UT)•200 – 344 kbit/s rx

•192 – 332 kbit/s tx

Aero I - regional•2.4 kbit /s fax and data

•4.8 kbit /s X.25

• Safety services

High gain (Class 6 UT)•232 – 492 kbit/s rx

•225 – 492 kbit/s tx

Swift 64 - regional• 64kbit/s ISDN & MPDS

•Aero H/H+ - global• Voice, fax, PM data

•Safety services

SwiftBroadbandExisting mode

•Potential for Safety services

•Voice, fax, PM data

•Voice, fax, PM data

•Voice,PM data

•Potential for Safety services

•Potential for Safety services

•Low gain (Class 4 UT) is a possible future service. It is being studied as part of Anastasia project

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WP1 - IOR narrow spot beam coverage of ECAC

The map depicts Inmarsat’s expectations of coverage but does not represent a guarantee of service. The availability of service at the edge of coverage areas fluctuate depending upon a variety of conditions.

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WP1 – AOR(W) narrow spot beam coverage of ECAC

The map depicts Inmarsat’s expectations of coverage but does not represent a guarantee of service. The availability of service at the edge of coverage areas fluctuate depending upon a variety of conditions.

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WP1 – Additional features required for Safety Service In Oceanic Airspace

Priority and pre-emption (in aircraft, in RAN, in CN). Redundancy (in event of major satellite failure)

Two approaches More SBB capable satellites

If so must probably wait until next generation of Inmarsat satellites are available. Use Swift64 or classic as fallback

Need redundant ground segment BGAN already provides this

Mechanisms to switch quickly to redundant satellite Addressing – is SIM addressing acceptable (as is today in SBB) or does it need

to use ICAO address? Data connection

Integration of IP bearer within ATS infrastructure

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WP1 – Additional features required for Safety Service In Enroute Airspace

As before plus Confirmation that Party line is needed Multiple SBB directional antennas needed

Single antenna cannot meet availability criteria due to antenna key hole effects e.g. during banking

Will need an omni service to allow operation to all aircraft in sector

Capacity of SBB needs to be confirmed

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WP1 – ATS Requirements

Requirements are key to assessing technology capability ATS communications requirements are complex

need understood operational concept from which communication requirements can be drawn

Comparison with COCR COCR timescale spans up to at least 2030 in two Phases

Phase 1 completion is around 2020 with implementation starting now Phase 2 is beyond 2020

SwiftBroadband is relevant to Phase 1 only as this is nearing the end of the planned satellite lifetime

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WP1 - ATS Capacity Requirements

Capacity - air/ground addressed - per service volume in kbps for Phase 1

APT=airport, ENR = Enroute, ORP = Oceanic/Remote/Polar HD = high density, LD = low density

APT SV TMA SV ENR SV ORP SV PHASE 1

HD LD HD LD HD EU HD US

LD HD LD

UL 4.0 1.2 2.3 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 DL 2.2 0.9 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.9 3.7 2.7 2.2

Separate ATS

UL&DL 5.8 1.3 5.3 5.0 4.1 5.6 4.0 2.8 2.2

UL 15.6 2.7 0.3 0.3 8.6 11.9 8.6 3.3 2.8 DL 3.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.3

Separate AOC

UL&DL 19.9 2.9 0.8 0.8 9.1 13.8 9.1 3.3 2.8

UL 18.3 2.9 2.3 2.2 9.0 12.7 8.9 3.3 2.8 DL 5.1 1.2 4.3 4.1 3.8 5.2 3.7 2.7 2.2

Combined ATS&AOC

UL&DL 24.2 3.2 5.6 5.3 11.4 17.6

11.3 4.5 3.4

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WP1 – Latency, Integrity and Availability 

Latency (sec)

Service & Phase

Service Type

Confidentiality

APT TMA ENR ORP AOA

Integrity FRS

Availability Of Provision

FRS

Broadcast Medium 0.8 4.8 9.6 9.6 - 5E-06 0.9965

ATS Phase 1

Addressed Medium 3.8 3.8 3.8 26.5 - 5E-06 0.9965

AOC 1+2

- Medium 13.60 13.60 13.60 26.50 26.5 5.0E-8 1-(5.0E-5)

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WP1 - Potential use of SwiftBroadband for ATS

Initial assessment of SBB not clear C,I, A figures needs to be confirmed

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WP2 - Institutional Issues

The business model has changed significantly LESOs are no longer in the supply chain Inmarsat continues to be a ‘focussed wholesaler’

ATS ATS CentreCentre

LESOsLESOs

Communication Service Communication Service Provider Provider

(CSP) Domain(CSP) Domain

INMARSAT DomainINMARSAT Domain

CSPCSPNetworkNetwork

“Classic Aero” Operating Arrangement“Classic Aero” Operating Arrangement

Distribution Partner (DP) Distribution Partner (DP) DomainDomain

Customer DomainCustomer DomainAirlineAirline ATS ATS CentreCentre

Land Earth Land Earth StationsStations

INMARSAT DomainINMARSAT Domain

CSPCSPNetworkNetwork

““SwiftBroadbandSwiftBroadband” Operating Arrangement” Operating Arrangement

Distribution Partner (DP) Distribution Partner (DP) DomainDomain

Customer DomainCustomer DomainAirlineAirline

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WP2 – Business model

Inmarsat business model ‘Classic aero’ service is supported on the I-4 satellites and accessed

under the existing arrangements BGAN is based on a different business model to ‘classic aero’ services

Service is operated through Inmarsat owned facilities Distribution Partners provide access to the service to end-users

possibility that ANSPs in the future could have direct arrangement with Inmarsat

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WP2 - Commercial Issues

Existing CSPs will continue to offer Classic Aero services but cannot offer BGAN services without serving a cooling off period of 1 year. Inmarsat has negotiated agreements with 10 Land BGAN DPs.

None yet for “aero” services, hence pricing undecided. SLAs yet to be defined.

Inmarsat only liable for acts of gross negligence, wilful misconduct or fraud. Damages limited to US$1M or previous 12 months wholesale charges Not clear yet if this will apply to “aero” Whatever arrangement is in place will flow on to ANSPs.

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WP2 - Competitive Issues

Two types of competition need to be considered. Inter-Service Competition

Competition for satellite service provision

Intra-Service Competition Competition within the supply chain between DPs, CSPs, etc.

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WP 2 – Risk: Safety and Technical

Can be broken down to Operational and Technical Risk Operational – effect of failures, certification levels, SLAs Technical – obsolescence, refurbishment, life-cycle planning.

Conclusions: Operational

CNS systems must remain the tools of ATM Increased certification levels will make costs prohibitive Even with the highest availability levels failures will happen, hence

workarounds are needed Commercial pressures will force DPs, CSPs to be more responsive.

SLA’s must cover more than techical performance: Notification procedures, thresholds, escalation procedures, fault handling.

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WP 2 – Risk: Safety and Technical

Conclusions (cont’d) With no backup satellite, satellite failure is the biggest risk

SwiftBroadband , as currently planned, can only be a supplementary means of communication – for critical communications

Additional satellites can remedy this

Technical Life-Cycle Planning essential (for Inmarsat, DPs, CSPs)

Plans for technological obsolescence needed Regular capacity planning

Satellite Datalink traffic has doubled recently Avoidance of proprietary system components

Alternatives needed for spares/upgrades

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WP2 – Risk: Financial/Commercial

Financial/Commercial Risk could affect both Service Providers and end-users.

First the Service Providers: Financial returns need to be adequate to fund capacity expansion. Experience with the “Classic” service has been that Inmarsat and SITA

have funded capacity improvements for Earth Stations that they neither own nor operate.

Change in Inmarsat business model will help overcome this issue “Flat Price” pricing models will hamper growth.

These can be used if reviewed regularly or limited to specialised or niche services.

Charges must bear some relationship to traffic levels.

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WP2 – Risk: Financial/Commercial

For End-Users: Safety-related services – longevity, stability

A monopoly position would provide this however end-users would not enjoy the benefits of competition:

Competitive Price Pressure Improved Customer Service Rapid service introduction Most importantly, alternatives should a provider fail financially

ICAO Acceptability Criteria require AMS(R)S providers to commit to provide service for six years.

what happens when/if that provider fails financially?

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WP2 – Risk: Financial/Commercial

End-Users (cont’d) However we shouldn’t have too much of a good thing!Why? Erosion of profit margins – limits future investment. Instability – providers entering and leaving market.Modest competition is the solution: Benefits forthcoming without loss of financial incentives.

The solution: Strict enforcement of standards

Natural barrier to entry Ensures portability.

Guaranteed minimum service lifetime ICAO acceptability criteria a good start, needs to apply to all providers Reduced barriers to entry for non-performance/safety related issues.

COTS not proprietary solutions.

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WP 3 - Aircraft Architecture

Target is to achieve significant equipage levels for both long-haul and short-haul/smaller aircraft to be useful as complementary system

Long-haul aircraft are more likely to be equipped with High Gain Antenna SwiftBroadband system

Short-haul/smaller aircraft unlikely unless small physical size and significantly cheaper

Low gain system can be considered the common denominator Main issue to overcome is interruption of service due to

manoeuvring of aircraft because of antenna keyholes Less of an issue for oceanic operation

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WP3 - Interfaces To Cockpit-Data

Current interface is Data2/Williamsburg/Arinc 429 (FANS 1/A) Data3/Williamsburg/Arinc 429 (ATN compatible)

Key question is how this will migrate to the IP environment supported by SwiftBroadband Tunnel existing Data2/3 over IP Migrate to pure IP environment ICAO ACP is considering accommodating IP

Where will this function reside In SDU? In another unit? Industry will need to consider this

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WP4 - Costs and Charges

Infrastructure costs -

SwiftBroadband service support will be more complex (and expensive) due to: Higher traffic levels, higher data rates A much broader range of services

Stakeholder Infrastructure

INMARSAT Space Segment (satellite), Network Control Centres, Network Operations Centres, Ground Earth Stations and ’core’ network systems, Avionics partner’s development.

DPs/CSPs Network infrastructure, application-specific processing, service-related processing, i.e.; billing, reporting, etc. management of customer support.

Airlines Cockpit Avionics, Cabin Equipment – current ARINC 871 avionics only designed to interface with cabin equipment. Development needed for interface to cockpit systems.

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WP4 - Capital Investments

Avionics costs Long haul aircraft systems essentially paid for by passenger/airline

applications Typical costs around $200-300K

Short haul aircraft system justification may be more difficult - more cost attributable to ATS applications

low cost solution needed - target cost around high end VHF radio Target figure identified in earlier NexSAT Steering Group meeting was in

the order of $50k

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WP4 - Recurring Costs

Satellite Operator - space segment and ground station operating costs, service support systems

DPs/CSPs – network support costs, performance reporting, accounting/billing, customer support, help-desk

Both entities also incur GS&A costs as well as the costs to promote and market the respective services

For DPs/CSPs, ATS represent premium services: Higher performance levels and reporting Stricter SLAs More customer support More industry support required

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WP4 – Market Size

Market Size somewhat uncertain – uptake of new services will determine success or otherwise.

Likely evolutionary paths are as follows: New aircraft will be equipped with SBB (or equivalents) Existence of new passenger services will encourage greater use

Web-surfing, streaming applications, VPN, e-mail New services may encourage airlines to equip short-haul and even

regional aircraft An ATS mandate will increase penetration further

We believe that this progression will occur in sequence

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WP4 - Scenarios

Scenario Description Key Driver Variable Parameters

Rating

1 – Current Trends

Increase due to: Aircraft population

growth.

Aircraft Population Growth

Different rates of equipage per aircraft type, i.e.; 80% equipage for A380

Most Pessimistic

2 – New Applications

Increase due to: Aircraft population

growth. Success with New

applications.

New Applications proving successful

Various applications – from low traffic (passenger interactive apps.) to high traffic (web access apps.)

Moderately Optimistic

3 – New Aircraft Types

Increase due to: Aircraft population

growth. Success with New

applications. Equipage of new

aircraft types.

Low Cost Avionics

Variations in utilisation between HGA and LGA equipped aircraft.

Generally Optimistic

4 – ATS Mandates plus full cabin utilisation

Increase due to: Aircraft population

growth. Success with New

applications. Equipage of new

aircraft types. ATC mandate

ATC Mandate - either required due to VHF congestion or new bandwidth intensive ATS applications.

Most Optimistic

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WP4 – Traffic Projections

Inmarsat traffic projection model populated during the study gives the results for the scenarios

Some observations The wide variation in outcomes means that providers must assume a large amount of risk. Providers are optimistic however this is based on three key provisions:

Low-cost avionics will support equipage on Short-Haul and Regional aircraft. Surveys reveal that a large proportion of business travellers would use their own cell-phone if

they could. By 2015 a whole generation of travellers will have grown up with cell-phones and the internet.

They will want to stay in touch!

2015 2018 Scenario Voice (MegaMin) Data (Gb) Voice (MegaMin) Data (Gb)

1 0.8 19,000 3 70,000 2 66 33,500 341 91,000 3 88 38,000 458 100,400 4 182 82,000 971 226,600

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WP4 – Charging Models

A range of possibilities: the pay as you go model the fixed-price model

DPs/CSPs prefer schemes where revenue is linked to usage Automatically helps fund capacity/service improvements

End-Users prefer the all-inclusive fixed price model Predictable costs, ease of budgeting

The likely outcome will be….

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WP4 – Future Charging Schemes

Indications are that most airlines will make use of fixed-fee, multilink agreements Fee will be related to fleet size for airlines Stepped traffic allowances (to protect DPs, CSPs) “Multilink” means that the same fee will apply regardless of the link used ATS services will still be considered premium services

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WP4 - Way ahead

As mentioned under “Institutional Issues”, distribution agreements for SwiftBroadband have yet to be negotiated

Until DPs know the wholesale price that they will be charged it is impossible to determine a realistic final user charge These are all subject to negotiation

and hence are confidential What can be said is that unit prices

will be significantly lower Usage will affect charge significantly

SwiftBroadband User Charges“Classic” Service User Charges

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Time

Unit Cost

Note: Not to Scale

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WP4 - Price Determination Process

Determine Pricing

Strategy

Effects on Demand

(elasticity)

Multiple Iterations

Finalize Price with DPs

Effects on Demand

(elasticity)

Multiple Iterations

Determine Pricing

Strategy

Satellite Provider

Distribution Partners

Negotiate Price

with End -Users

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WP4 - Communication Service pricing

Various price models have been explored Factors that will finally determine the SwiftBroadband pricing

policy include, but will not be limited to: several pricing options and rates - finalised six months

before the service launch Pricing of ATS messaging will have to take into account

the specialised and significant infrastructure and support facilities needed for an aeronautical service

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WP4 – Enterprise (land) pricing

Charging for BGAN land-mobile services is volume sensitive. When purchased in bulk by way of a package- plan, prices for the background IP service can vary between US$3.75 to US$6.95 per Megabyte.

Voice services are not categorised according to traffic types and typically carry a charge of around a US1.00 per minute for regular circuit switched traffic.

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Conclusions (1/2)

Initial SwiftBroadband services aimed at passenger and some airline applications

SwiftBroadband appears to have potential for ATS provision Meets capacity requirements in COCR Phase 1 Will not meet availability requirements as a primary means

Lack of satellite redundancy Aircraft antenna coverage key holes when manoeuvring

Current lack of priority and pre-emption IP versus ATN

Offers potential as complementary system could have indirect benefit for ATS by handling more capacity

consuming AOC applications

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Conclusions (2/2)

Enhancements to BGAN infrastructure to enhance performance to meet ATS requirements possible but investments need to be justified throughout supply chain

More information of the performance of SwiftBroadband will emerge as the service is introduced

Unresolved issues will probably be addressed through the ANASTASIA project