1 Istanbul, Turkey October 26-28, 2004 Hazard Risk Management in Europe and Central Asia Workshop...

1Istanbul, Turkey

October 26-28, 2004

Hazard Risk Hazard Risk Management Management

in Europe and Central in Europe and Central Asia Asia

WorkshopWorkshop

Albania

Mihallaq SpirollariMihallaq SpirollariNational Project OfficerNational Project OfficerDisaster Management and Emergency Preparedness ProjectDisaster Management and Emergency Preparedness Project

Findings of the Findings of the

Risk Assessment Risk Assessment Study in AlbaniaStudy in Albania

2

DISASTER MANAGEMENT ANDEMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PLANS

Planning elements in terms of:

Physical damage to identified elements at risk

Related economic losses

Homelessness

Human casualty for each hazard are separately quantified.

Albania

3

RISK ANALYSIS, QUANTIFICATIONS, MAPPING

Earthquakes

Floods

Landslides and Rockfalls

Forest Fires

Winter-storms, Snowstorms

Epidemics

Mapping of critical industrial

and other facilities

Albania

4

ELEMENTS AT RISK

Population

Housing (individual, collective)

Public Buildings (Schools, Hospitals)

Sections/Facilities of Vital

Transportation routes

Critical industrial facilities & Dams Albania

5

Networking Ministry of Local Government &

Decentralization, GOV of Albania Ministry of Public Works Ministry of Health Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Transportation Ministry of Education and Science Ministry of Environment Academy of Science

Albania

6

For each year, the annual frequencies of respective district are normalized by the annual Country frequency and presented as percents.

Y 2001 (9.6%)

9,6

Y 1995Y 1996Y 2000

DEVOLL

KOLONJE

POGRADEC

KORCE

BULQIZE

DIBER

LIBRAZHD

HAS

KUKES

PUKE

TROPOJE

ELBASAN

GRAMSH

SKRAPAR

DELVINE

SARANDA

TEPELENA

PERMET

GJIROKASTER

MAT

MIRDITE

KRUJE

TIRANA

BERAT

MALLAKASTER

KUCOVE

VLORA

LUSHNJE

PEQIN

MALESI EMADHE

SHKODER

DURRES

LEZHE

KURBIN

FIER

KAVAJA

Year of 2001

0

1 ,63 ,24 ,86 ,48 ,0

to to to to to to

1 ,63 ,24 ,86 ,48 ,09 ,6

(10)

(14) (6)

(5)

(0)

(1)

[% of Country Total]

60,958.4 Cases

An

nu

al F

req

uen

cy o

f D

iarr

ho

eal

Dis

ease

s B

y D

istr

icts

Albania

7 100

Yea

rs R

etu

rn P

erio

d o

f th

e M

axim

um

Flo

od

Po

ten

tial

Map

KORCAKORCAKORCAKORCAKORCAKORCAKORCAKORCAKORCA

POGRADECPOGRADECPOGRADECPOGRADECPOGRADECPOGRADECPOGRADECPOGRADECPOGRADEC

PESHKOPIPESHKOPIPESHKOPIPESHKOPIPESHKOPIPESHKOPIPESHKOPIPESHKOPIPESHKOPI

KUKESKUKESKUKESKUKESKUKESKUKESKUKESKUKESKUKES

BAJRAM CURRIBAJRAM CURRIBAJRAM CURRIBAJRAM CURRIBAJRAM CURRIBAJRAM CURRIBAJRAM CURRIBAJRAM CURRIBAJRAM CURRI

BULQIZABULQIZABULQIZABULQIZABULQIZABULQIZABULQIZABULQIZABULQIZA

SARANDASARANDASARANDASARANDASARANDASARANDASARANDASARANDASARANDA

GIROKASTROGIROKASTROGIROKASTROGIROKASTROGIROKASTROGIROKASTROGIROKASTROGIROKASTROGIROKASTRO

ELBASANELBASANELBASANELBASANELBASANELBASANELBASANELBASANELBASAN

BERATBERATBERATBERATBERATBERATBERATBERATBERAT

TIRANATIRANATIRANATIRANATIRANATIRANATIRANATIRANATIRANA

FIERFIERFIERFIERFIERFIERFIERFIERFIER

SHKODRASHKODRASHKODRASHKODRASHKODRASHKODRASHKODRASHKODRASHKODRA

DURRESDURRESDURRESDURRESDURRESDURRESDURRESDURRESDURRES

VLORAVLORAVLORAVLORAVLORAVLORAVLORAVLORAVLORA

Flood Risk Zone

Extreme

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High
















Flooding of 1962/63

Flooded Area

Lakes

Rivers

100

Yea

rs R

etu

rn P

erio

d W

est

Pla

in F

loo

d R

isk

Map

Albania

8Sta

bili

ty o

f N

atu

ral S

lop

es A

lon

g t

he

Ro

ad N

etw

ork

in R

elat

ion

to

RP

-200

S

eism

ic E

xcit

atio

n
















0.30 – 0.45 g

< 0.15 g

0.15 – 0.30 g

Excitation Level

National Roads

Principal Roads

Relatively Stable

Unstable

Stable

Stability of Natural Slopes

Sta

bili

ty o

f N

atu

ral S

lop

es A

lon

g t

he

Rai

lway

Net

wo

rk in

Rel

atio

n t

o R

P-2

00

Sei

smic

Exc

itat

ion
















Railway SystemAlbania

9

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk Very High Risk

Fo

rest

Fir

e R

isk

Map

of

Alb

ania

/b

y D

istr

icts

/
















Avalanche Risk Region

Lake

Regional

National

Road Type

Sn

ow

Ava

lan

che

Ris

k M

ap

Albania

10

5-D

ays

Sn

ow

Co

ver

Ris

k

Albania

25.2

> 120

5
















RP - 2, AP=50%

RP - 5, AP=20%

RP -10, AP=10%

RP -20, AP=5%

RP>20, AP<5%

National

Regional

Road Type

Table 41.1 Population by Snow-Cover Duration Zones (% of Country Population)

Return Period (Years)

2 5 10 20

> 5 25.8 51.2 55.4 57.5

> 10 20.4 32.4 36.2

> 15 13.5 21.9 24.3 26.0

> 20 5.6 17.8 22.0 23.7

> 25 3.1 13.0 18.1 21.8

> 30 1.9 7.0 15.7 18.1

> 60 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.3

> 90 0.1 0.1 0.4

0.0 0.1

50 20 10

Annual Probability (in %)

Nu

mb

er o

f C

on

secu

tive

Sn

ow

-Co

veri

ng

Day

s

11

15 Earthquake ScenariosFor Return Periods: 50, 100, 200, 475, 1000, 5000 & 10000 Years

1- ScE-01 Shkodra 6- ScE-06 Vlora 11- ScE-11 Diber

2- ScE-02 Lezhe 7- ScE-07 Himare 12- ScE-12 Pogradec

3- ScE-03 Tirana 8- ScE-08 Tapeline 13- ScE-13 Kukes

4- ScE-04 Durres 9- ScE-09 Saranda 14- ScE-14 Leskovik

5- ScE-05 Berat 10- ScE-10 Elbasan 15- ScE-15 Petrovac

Mapping for PGA = 0.15 and 0.30g, g=9.81 m/s/s

15 Earthquake ScenariosFor Return Periods: 50, 100, 200, 475, 1000, 5000 & 10000 Years

1- ScE-01 Shkodra 6- ScE-06 Vlora 11- ScE-11 Diber

2- ScE-02 Lezhe 7- ScE-07 Himare 12- ScE-12 Pogradec

3- ScE-03 Tirana 8- ScE-08 Tapeline 13- ScE-13 Kukes

4- ScE-04 Durres 9- ScE-09 Saranda 14- ScE-14 Leskovik

5- ScE-05 Berat 10- ScE-10 Elbasan 15- ScE-15 Petrovac

Mapping for PGA = 0.15 and 0.30g, g=9.81 m/s/s

Albania

12

RP-200 Years














































11

22

33

44

55

66

77

88

99

1010

1111

1212

1313

1414

1515

Albania

13

Evacuation

0

50,000100,000

150,000200,000

250,000

300,000350,000

400,000450,000

500,000

10 100 1000

Shkodra

Lezha

Tirana

Durres

Berat

Vlora

Himara

Tepelena

Saranda

Elbasan

Dibra

Pogradec

KukesReturn Period, Years

Mortality/10,000 Population

0102030405060708090

100

10 100 1000

Lezha

Tirana

Durres

Berat

Vlora

Himara

Tepelena

Saranda

Elbasan

Dibra

Pogradec

KukesReturn Period, Years

Damage States D3+D4

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1 2 3 4 5

BERAT

BULQIZE

DELVINE

DEVOLL

DIBER

DURRES

ELBASAN

FIER

GRAMSH

GJIROKASTER

HAS

KAVAJE

KOLONJE

KORÇE

KRUJE

KUÇOVE

KUKES

KURBINReturn Period, Years

50 100 200 475 1000

Damage State D5

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1 2 3 4 5

BERAT

BULQIZE

DELVINE

DEVOLL

DIBER

DURRES

ELBASAN

FIER

GRAMSH

GJIROKASTER

HAS

KAVAJE

KOLONJE

KORÇE

KRUJE

KUÇOVE

KUKES

KURBINReturn Period, Years

50 100 200 475 1000

Albania

14

Table Eq.8 Scenario Earthquake Estimates on Human Casualty and Homelessness for Return Periods of 50, 100, 200 and 475 Years /per 10,000 of Country Population/

Return Period 50 Years Return Period 100 Years

I1 I2+I3 M Homeless

Scenario Earthquake I1 I2+I3 M Homeless

- - - 71 Shkoder - - - 135 - - - 95 Lezhe - - - 158 - - - 99 Tirana - - - 174 - - - 125 Durres 0.01 0.04 0.01 322 - - - 153 Berat - 0.01 - 272

- - - 145 Vlore 0.04 0.17 0.06 324 - - - 41 Himare - - - 71 - - - 84 Tepelena 0.01 0.04 0.02 152 - - - 20 Saranda - 0.01 - 37 - - - 195 Elbasan 0.06 0.25 0.09 347 - - - 111 Diber 0.04 0.11 0.05 177 - - - 145 Pogradec 0.02 0.06 0.02 231 - - - 124 Kukes 0.03 0.14 0.05 196

- - - 21 Leskovik - - - 33

- - - 86 Petrovac - - - 97

Return Period 200 Years Return Period 475 Years

I1 I2+I3 M Homeless

Scenario Earthquake I1 I2+I3 M Homeless

0.10 0.41 0.15 258 Shkoder 4.40 12.27 4.82 546 0.01 0.06 0.02 262 Lezhe 0.72 2.01 0.79 523 0.02 0.07 0.03 296 Tirana 0.42 1.39 0.53 607 2.55 6.68 2.67 795 Durres 29.26 74.46 29.98 1886 0.10 0.48 0.17 524 Berat 6.20 15.99 6.42 1162 2.23 5.71 2.3 713 Vlore 23.17 58.99 23.73 1504 0.01 0.04 0.02 127 Himare 1.09 3.28 1.26 266 0.30 0.88 0.34 289 Tepelena 6.00 16.07 6.37 604

0.14 0.42 0.16 70 Saranda 1.45 4.01 1.58 137 1.95 5.35 2.11 640 Elbasan 13.69 36.85 14.61 1243 1.47 2.38 1.1 279 Diber 8.86 14.70 6.74 409 0.63 1.76 0.69 399 Pogradec 11.02 28.45 11.39 759 0.55 1.73 0.66 272 Kukes 3.45 10.53 4.05 427

- - - 45 Leskovik - - - 69

- - - 151 Petrovac - 0.02 0.01 252

I1 – Light Injuries I2 – Injuries for Hospitalization I3 – Injuries for Immediate Medical Attention M – Mortality

Table Eq.7 Scenario Earthquake Estimates on Structurally Damaged (D3, D4) and Collapsed (D5) Building Stock by Prefectures for Return Periods of 50, 100, 200 and 475 Years

RP-50 Years RP-100 Years RP-200 Years RP-475 Years

D3+D4 D5 D3+D4 D5 Qark

D3+D4 D5 D3+D4 D5

1,263 115 2,295 419 Berat 4,363 1,785 5,071 3,944

3,144 748 4,605 2,392 Diber 5,367 5,751 6,551 7,692

3,450 213 9,481 1,651 Durres 17,102 7,697 17,912 13,041

5,906 674 11,161 2,004 Elbasan 19,378 6,728 22,745 12,997

6,751 508 15,740 2,665 Fier 28,015 11,201 29,567 20,842

2,234 302 3,808 841 Gjirokaster 6,979 2,833 7,710 5,632

5,168 525 9,078 1,608 Korca 16,925 5,877 19,382 12,571

1,008 83 1,892 273 Kukes 3,219 905 3,807 1,794

1,039 35 1,757 137 Lezhe 3,664 579 5,825 1,557

3,124 218 5,835 773 Shkoder 12,294 3,334 15,320 7,998

4,998 192 11,847 1,172 Tirana 26,546 6,729 33,612 16,967

3,177 334 5,297 938 Vlora 10,580 2,852 13,776 7,033

RP-50 Years RP-100 Years RP-200 Years RP-475 Years

D3+D4 (%) D5 (%) D3+D4 (%) D5 (%) Qark

D3+D4 (%) D5 (%) D3+D4 (%) D5 (%)

5.53 0.23 9.20 0.84 Berat 16.72 3.06 31.79 13.01

7.68 0.81 13.66 3.25 Diber 20.01 10.40 23.32 24.99

3.64 0.09 8.34 0.52 Durres 22.93 3.99 41.36 18.62

5.71 0.28 11.29 1.29 Elbasan 21.34 3.83 37.06 12.87

3.93 0.10 10.19 0.77 Fier 23.75 4.02 42.26 16.90

6.65 0.47 11.94 1.62 Gjirokaster 20.35 4.50 37.30 15.14

6.07 0.28 11.42 1.16 Korca 20.05 3.55 37.39 12.98

4.37 0.13 8.70 0.72 Kukes 16.33 2.36 27.78 7.82

3.28 0.08 5.22 0.18 Lezhe 8.83 0.69 18.42 2.91

4.40 0.14 8.06 0.56 Shkoder 15.05 1.99 31.71 8.60

3.81 0.10 6.45 0.25 Tirana 15.28 1.51 34.24 8.68

4.87 0.27 8.52 0.90 Vlora 14.20 2.52 28.35 7.64

Damage percents are calculated in respect to the total number of buildings in each prefecture (Table 1)

Albania

15

Phase I: Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment & Quantification of Elements for Elements for Disaster Management and Emergency Preparedness Disaster Management and Emergency Preparedness of Albania: of Albania: - Completed- Completed

Phase II: Disaster Planning Elements and Tools

Development of Disaster Information and Decision Support GIS system: - Completed- Completed

Development of National Disaster Plan – Underway

Testing of National Disaster Plan

For more: http://intra.undp.org.al/ext/elib/download/?id=638&name=Risk%20Assessment-Eng.pdf

Albania

http://intra.undp.org.al/ext/elib/download/?id=638&name=Risk%20Assessment-Eng.pdf



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1 Istanbul, Turkey October 26-28, 2004 Hazard Risk Management in Europe and Central Asia Workshop...

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