1 January 27, 20102010 Nebraska Profile 2010 NEBRASKA PROFILE Eighth Edition State, 8 Regions, 93...

January 27, 20102010 Nebraska Profile 1

2010 NEBRASKA PROFILEEighth Edition

State, 8 Regions, 93 Counties, plus 18 Cities – Three Volumes

Demographic Change in the State Economic Influences at Work Housing Statistics and Trends Summary of Findings

2010 Nebraska Profile January 27, 20102

Eight Regions and 93 Counties

Northwest

North Central

SouthwestSouth Central

Southeast

Northeast

Lincoln

NORTH

SOUTHOmaha

URBAN

DOUGLAS

LANCASTER

SARPY

HALLBUFFALO

SCOTTS BLUFF

DODGE

MADISON

LINCOLN

PLATTE

ADAMS

DAWSON CASS

GAGE

DAKOTA

SAUNDERS

SEWARD

OTOE

YORK

SALINE

BOX BUTTE

CUSTER

HOLT

RED WILLOW

COLFAX

CUMING

WAYNE

CHEYENNE

PHELPS

CEDAR

RICHARDSON

HAMILTON

KNOXDAWES

KEITH BUTLER

JEFFERSON

MERRICK

PIERCE

BURT

NEMAHA

ANTELOPE THURSTON

CLAYKEARNEY FILLMORE

HOWARD

DIXON

BOONE

SHERIDANCHERRY

THAYER

POLK

MORRILL

FURNAS NUCKOLLS

VALLEY

JOHNSON

KIMBALL

CHASE

WEBSTER

NANCE

HARLAN FRANKLIN

BROWN

SHERMAN

PERKINS

HITCHCOCK

FRONTIER

PAWNEE

GREELEY

BOYD

DUNDY

GARDEN

GOSPER

DEUEL

GARFIELD

ROCKSIOUX

HAYES

KEYA PAHA

WHEELER

BANNER

HOOKER

LOGAN

GRANT THOMAS LOUPBLAINE

MCPHERSONARTHURWASHINGTON

STANTON


Demographics Some people leaving Nebraska Significant international migration

April 2000 to July 2009

Starting Population 1,711,263 Births 241,832 Deaths 139,626 Natural Increase 102,206 International Migration 31,988 Domestic Migration -41,144 Net Migration -9,156 Residual -7,696July 1, 2009 Population 1,796,619

Census Bureau Population EstimatesBirths, Deaths and Migration: 2000-2009


Demographics Population falling: < 20 years old Population increasing: 20-24 and 55-64

Age 2000 Census Jul-08 % ChangeUnder 20 504,336 500,347 -0.8%20-24 120,331 133,305 10.8%25-34 223,273 232,435 4.1%35-54 489,588 481,660 -1.6%55-64 141,540 194,838 37.7%65 or Older 232,195 240,847 3.7%

Total 1,711,263 1,783,432 4.2%

Population Change by Age


Demographics North declining South decreasing slowly Urbanized counties growing faster

Region 2000 Census July 2004 Est July 2008 Est Change North 371,513 359,706 352,259 -19,254 South 423,839 419,576 417,744 -6,095 Urban 915,911 962,168 1,013,429 97,518 Nebraska 1,711,263 1,741,450 1,768,331 72,169

Regional Population Change2000 Census, 2004 and 2008 Population Estimates


Demographics Census Bureau estimates by county

Cherry-8.8 Holt

-11.4

Custer-8.1

Sioux-12.7

Lincoln2.7

Sheridan-13.9

Morrill-8.3 Garden

-23

Knox-9.3

Keith-11.9

Dawes-3.7

Rock-14.1

Brown-10.7

Gage0.2

Grant-19.1

Hall5.4

Buffalo7.3

Dundy-12.7

Chase-10.8

Kimball-13.6

York-2.7

Cedar-12.6

Otoe1

Dawson1.2

Frontier-16.6

Burt-9.9

Platte1.3

Arthur-23.9

Blaine-26.6

Cheyenne1.4

Perkins-9.9

Box Butte-9.2

Loup-13.1

Boyd-14.3

Hayes-5.9

Clay-10.9

Cass5.2

Boone-13

Banner-10.3

Hooker-6

Polk-9.2

Butler-5

Furnas-12.8

Antelope-10.4

Valley-10

Pierce-8

Logan-5

Saline-0.5

Thomas-20

Dixon-0.7

Lancaster11.4

Harlan-12.3

Dodge-0.8

Thayer-15.7

Adams6.7

Saunders1

Phelps-6.4

McPherson-3.6

Cuming-8.8

Deuel-10.4

Seward1.6

Howard0.4

Garfield-10.1

Keya Paha-15

Greeley-15.6

Hitchcock-8.8

Fillmore-9.5

Wheeler-8.9

Franklin-13.2

Nance-12.1

Madison-3.4Scotts Bluff

-1.1

Webster-13.6

Wayne-5.9

Colfax-4.3

Nuckolls-11.7

Sherman-9.8

Red Willow-6.5

Gosper-10.1

Hamilton-1.1

Jefferson-11.1

Kearney-5.9

Stanton-2.2

Pawnee-15.7

Richardson-13

Nemaha-6.5

Johnson0.2

Douglas8.3Merrick

-6.1

Thurston-1

Sarpy22.7

Dakota-0.4

Washington5.5

Population Growth Rate

-26.6 - -16.0

-15.9 - -6.0

-5.9 - 0.0

0.1 - 10.0

10.1 - 22.8


Demographics DMV data indicate modest growth

Quarterly Net Migration In NebraskaDrawn From Driver's License Exchanges 2001 - 2009

888 902

1,539

35

1,6741,851

274743

-180-18

-605-359

543

1,3671,500

865

1,477

675

2,619

1,976

2,390

1,453

572 529

1,102

618892

1,1121,152

574

969

1,368

447

625

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year and Quarter

Net

Dri

ver'

s L

icen

ses


Demographics Positive change strong in working years

Age 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200914-25 1,366 362 646 223 523 1,138 1,24526-45 3,322 1,347 1,802 1,499 1,465 3,829 2,24346-65 717 649 476 532 437 912 91866+ 374 357 447 676 395 404 191

Missing 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0Total 5,779 2,714 3,370 2,927 2,820 6,283 4,597

Indicators of MigrationNebraska Department of Motor Vehicles - Net Exchanged


Demographics Positive change in all regions Urban had largest increase

Region 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009North 540 -260 48 -396 28 757 659South 1,153 256 854 729 915 1,073 1,053Urban 4,086 2,747 2,485 2,601 1,886 4,463 2,889

Out of State -34 -29 -17 -7 -8 -8 -6Total 5,745 2,714 3,370 2,927 2,822 6,285 4,595

Net of Exchanged & Surrendered LicensesNebraska Department of Motor Vehicles


Demographics

DMV data indicate people moved to Nebraska from Iowa, Colorado, Kansas and other states

State 2009Iowa 1,923Colorado 1,092Kansas 881California 956Texas 797Missouri 688

Florida 736

All Other 6,446

Total 13,519

Exchanged Licenses


Demographics PUMS data shows domestic migration decreased

Migration from 2001 2006 2007 2008 Nebraska Intrastate 234,081 260,627 240,525 230,797 Domestic Interstate 35,868 58,305 51,974 49,059Total U.S. 269,949 318,932 292,499 279,856International 8,149 6,573 6,121 7,680

Total Migration 278,098 325,505 298,620 287,536

(Place of Residence One Year Ago)PUMS 2001, 2006 – 2008

Population Migration


Demographics PUMS data show people moved to Nebraska from California, Iowa, Missouri and other states

State 2008California 5,218Iowa 3,965Missouri 3,937Kansas 3,264Colorado 3,069Arizona 2,458

All Other 27,148

Nebraska 230,797

Total 279,856

Domestic Migration


Demographics International migration down in 2007, up in 2008

Region 2000 2001 2006 2007 2008Europe & Eastern Europe 450 1,846 1,042 742 1,236Central & South America 6,522 1,382 1,163 448 449Africa 422 687 641 1,185 2,542Asia 3,844 3,636 2,507 1,980 3,095Middle East . 288 762 237 188North America/Australia . 310 458 1,529 170

Total Migration 11,238 8,149 6,573 6,121 7,680

Population Migration - InternationalPUMS 2000, 2001, 2006 – 2008


Economics Nebraska business establishments growing

Nebraska Business Establishments1986-2007

52,517

42,000

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

54,000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Year

Bu

sin

ess

Est

ablis

hm

ents


Economics Employment continues to rise

Nebraska Full- and Part-Time Employment1969-2008

1,253,549

650,000

750,000

850,000

950,000

1,050,000

1,150,000

1,250,000

1,350,000

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Year

Em

plo

ymen

t: J

ob

s


Economics High labor force participation rate

Nebraska vs. U.S. Labor Force Participation RatesBLS Data 1998 - 2008

66.0

73.5

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

U.S. Nebraska


Economics State unemployment rates still below national rates

Nebraska vs U.S. Unemployment Rates 1978-2008

5.8

3.3

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

U.S. Unemployment Rate Nebraska Unemployment Rate


Economics Nebraska 2009 unemployment higher than 2008

U.S. vs. Nebraska Unemployment Rate2007 - 2008 Monthly BLS Data

4.2

10.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ayJu

nJu

lA

ug

Sep Oct

No

vD

ecJa

nF

ebM

arA

pr

May

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ep Oct

No

vD

ecJa

nF

ebM

arA

pr

May

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ep Oct

No

v

2007 2008 2009

Nebraska U.S.


Economics Unemployment highest in urban zone

Nebraska Unemployment Rates by Zone 2000-2008

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

North South Urban


Economics Earned income per job increased a little

Nebraska vs U.S. Real Earnings Per Job1969-2008: Real 2008 Dollars

43,191

50,782

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Rea

l Avg

$ P

er J

ob

Nebraska USA


Economics Industries with higher rates of pay

Earnings(1,000s)

Management of Companies 17,291 1,613,161 93,295Wholesale Trade 45,173 2,923,284 64,713Transportation/Warehousing 64,706 3,807,415 58,842Information 21,276 1,249,925 58,748

Employment and Real Earnings Per JobNebraska: BEA 2008

NAICS Category Emp $ Per Job


Economics Nebraska per capita income increased

Nebraska vs U.S. Real Per Capita Income1969-2008: Real 2008 Dollars

39,150

40,208

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Rea

l Per

Cap

ita

Inco

me

Nebraska USA


Economics Nebraska poverty rates fell, national rates rose

Poverty Rates Nebraska and U.S. 1998-2008

10.8

13.2

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Po

vert

y R

ate

Nebraska U.S.


Housing Housing production continues to fall

Total Dwelling Units Permitted in Nebraska1980 - 2008

10,920

6,346

4,690

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Per

mit

s Is

sued

Total Units Single Family Units


Housing Panic in the

housing

sector?


HousingHousing stock is still increasing statewide

Region 2000 Census Jul-08 Change North 163,004 167,121 2.53 South 185,513 192,828 3.94 Urban 374,151 426,385 13.96 Nebraska 722,668 786,334 8.81

Housing Unit Change by Zone2000 Census and 2008 Housing Estimate


Housing Average prices for single-family homes increased in all areas

Zone 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 North 72,279 75,781 81,506 83,497 88,126 93,474 94,550 South 72,008 75,734 83,813 86,920 90,065 96,281 98,827 Urban 128,447 137,630 147,080 154,663 160,324 159,553 163,644 Nebraska 105,570 113,329 124,211 130,199 134,494 136,019 138,661

Average Sales Prices in PAD DataSingle-Family Homes by Zone and Fiscal Year


Housing Prices by county from PAD

Cherry82 Holt

72

Custer65

Sioux26

Lincoln122

Sheridan41

Morrill65 Garden

46

Knox47

Keith82

Dawes99

Rock47

Brown52

Gage88

Grant0

Hall123

Buffalo141

Dundy40

Chase87

Kimball70

York95

Cedar74

Clay55

Otoe111

Dawson83

Frontier61

Burt84

Platte116

Arthur16

Blaine105

Cheyenne114

Perkins73

Loup41

Box Butte88

Boyd25

Hayes46

Cass162

Boone78

Banner68

Hooker58

Polk70

Butler85

Furnas49

Antelope39

Valley76

Pierce93

Logan80

Saline104

Thomas38

Dixon60

Lancaster161

Harlan58

Dodge120

Thayer45

Adams109

Saunders140

Phelps84

McPherson75

Cuming74

Deuel53

Seward129

Howard84

Garfield45

Keya Paha39

Greeley59

Hitchcock41

Fillmore52

Wheeler56

Franklin30

Nance43

Madison105Scotts Bluff

108

Webster49

Wayne88

Colfax80

Nuckolls37

Sherman50

Red Willow76

Gosper74

Hamilton106

Jefferson57

Kearney90

Stanton102

Pawnee44

Richardson38

Nemaha97

Johnson52

Douglas159Merrick

76

Thurston71

Sarpy184

Dakota104

Washington170

Average Sale Price

16,000 - 45,000

45,001 - 75,000

75,001 - 95,000

95,001 - 130,000

130,001 - 183,776

N/A


Housing Size of single-family homes sold rose

Average Square Foot Size of Homes Sold in NebraskaPAD Database: Fiscal 1999-2008

1,5791,611 1,765

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1930 orBefore

1931-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008

Year Built

Ave

rag

e P

rice

per

sq

ft

North South Urban


Housing Single-family market value per square foot increased

Average Single-Family Prices Per Square FootPAD Database: Fiscal 1999-2008

39

6169

74

94

111

36

58

7074

79

94

66

9297 97

109

82

114

101

115

30

50

70

90

110

1930 orBefore

1931-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008

Year Built

Av

era

ge

Pri

ce

pe

r s

qft

North South Urban


Housing Increased costs for newer homes

Average Prices of Homes Sold in NebraskaPAD Database: Fiscal 1999-2008

$175,872

$183,673

$202,514

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

Before1930

1931-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2008

Year Built

Av

era

ge

Pri

ce

pe

r s

qft

North South Urban


Housing Value of single-family construction rebounded

Value of Single-Family Construction 1980 - 2008

70

90

110

130

150

170

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Year

Re

al V

alu

e, $

1,0

00

s

North South Urban


Housing Average home sale prices fell

Average Home Sales PricesNebraska Association of Realtors: 1998 - Available Months of 2009

119,552123,780

139,109146,066 146,020

129,499

153,177154,564 154,041

131,867

111,442

150,683

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ave

rag

e N

om

inal

Pri

ce

Nebraska MLS


Housing Housing price index fell only slightly

FHFA Housing Price IndexNebraska vs U.S. 2000 - 2009 Second Quarter: 1980 = 100

257.54

359.57

180

230

280

330

380

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Pri

ce In

dex

Nebraska U.S.A.


HousingYearly survey of Nebraska rental properties

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesCompleted Surveys: 2002 - 2009

818

958

456

641

1,089

1,463

1,613

1,304

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year


Housing Number of units captured each year

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesRental Units Surveyed: 2002 - 2009

81,153 82,251

91,55797,976

83,929

73,683

57,009

98,400

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year


Housing Observed vacancy rates each year

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesVacancy Rates: 2002 - 2009

6.9

5.8

5.0

6.1 6.1

6.16.6 6.6

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year


Housing Observed vacancy rates each year

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesVacancy Rates: 2004 - 2009

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

North South Urban


Housing Single-Family and Apartment Rents

Single-Family and Apartment RentsRental Vacancy Survey: 2006-2009

527

641

620

644

582

625

605

612

500

525

550

575

600

625

650

675

2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Ren

t ($

)

Single-Family Units Apartments


Housing Degree of need for new construction 1 = no need; 5 = extreme need

1 2 3 4 5 North 176 86 101 41 48 South 175 96 100 62 69 Urban 331 70 79 12 20 Nebraska 682 252 280 115 137

Zone

Nebraska Rental Vacancy SurveysDegree of Need for New Units


Housing Degree of need for new construction

Nebraska Rental SurveyNeed for New Rental Construction

47.5%

17.5% 19.5%

8.0% 7.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

No Need 2 3 4 Extreme Need

Per

cen

t D

istr

ibu

tio

n

2006 2007 2008 2009


Summary of Findings

Population declining in rural areas Population growing in cities and east Nebraska unemployment moderate Nebraska employment still growing slowly Income slowly rising Single-family production continues falling


Summary of Findings

Rental vacancy rates are drifting up Homeowner prices soft/drifting down Housing markets more fragmented Successful market niches narrower and

geographically dispersed Effective actions need good plans

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1 January 27, 20102010 Nebraska Profile 2010 NEBRASKA PROFILE Eighth Edition State, 8 Regions, 93...

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