1 JRC – Ispra

DG JRC and EC4MACS

IPTS Institute for Prospective Technology Studies- Peter Russ- Antonio Soria- Szabolc Szekeres

IES Institute for Environment and Sustainability- John Van Aardenne- Adrian Leip- Rita Van Dingenen - Frank Dentener- Frank Raes

estimation of the impacts of climate change

(PESETA)

mitigation scenarios

(POLES)

economic impact ofpolicies

(GEM-E3)

2

Techno-economic characteristics of energy technologies

emission inventory (EDGAR)

technical characteristic costs environmental impact

Participate in technology development

CCS H2 Renewables

Provide policy advice

co-benefitsof policies

on air pollution (TM5/RITA)

JRC activities in support ofClimate Change policy making

3 JRC – Ispra

NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions

air pollutionO3 PM

biosphere

global temperature ecosystems human health

CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions

CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations

fossil fuel us, fertilizer use

need for energy, mobility,food

Earth System machinery

technicalmeasures

behavioralmeasures

structuralmeasures

PO

LIC

Y R

ES

PO

NS

E

integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

4 JRC – Ispra

NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions

air pollutionO3 PM

biosphere

global temperature ecosystems human health

CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions

CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations

fossil fuel use

need for energy, mobility

Earth System machinery

technicalmeasures

behavioralmeasures

structuralmeasures

PO

LIC

Y R

ES

PO

NS

E

integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

5 JRC – Ispra

A 2ºC target pathway requires substantial emission reductions in the energy sector

source: JRC-IPTS, published in SEC(2007)7

6 JRC – Ispra

Emission reductions needed in all sectors, power sector remains key for low-cost reductions

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential & services

Transport

Industry

Other conversion

Power Sector

Remaining emissions ina reduction scenario

Glo

bal e

mis

sion

s in

Mt C

O2-

equi

vale

nt

av

oid

ed

em

iss

ion

s

Remaining emissions in a 2°C target pathway scenario

7 JRC – Ispra

Energy savings and technological change are crucial for realising a climate change pathway

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2000 2010 2020 2030

Energy savings

Fossil fuel switch

Renewable energies

Nuclear energy

Carbon sequestration

Emission of reductioncase

avo

ided

em

iss

ion

s

Glo

bal

em

issi

ons

in M

t CO

2

Remaining emissions in a 2°C target pathway scenario

8 JRC – Ispra

The importance of new technologies example of global renewable electricity generation

source: JRC-IPTS, published in SEC(2007)7, modified

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050

Glo

bal

ren

ewab

le e

lect

rici

ty g

ener

atio

n (

TW

h) Solar electricity

Bioelectricity

Wind energy

Hydro (plus geothermal)

20 % of total electricity

46 % of total electricity

9 JRC – Ispra

NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions

air pollutionO3 PM

biosphere

global temperature ecosystems human health

CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions

CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations

fossil fuel use

need for energy, mobility

Earth System machinery

technicalmeasures

behavioralmeasures

structuralmeasures

PO

LIC

Y R

ES

PO

NS

E

integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

Main emission sectorsEnergyIndustrial combustionPower generationTransformationResidential, othrTransportNon-energyCoal productionOil productionGas production

Industrial processesIron and steel productionNon-ferro productionChemical industryBuilding materialsFood industrySolventsMisc. Industry

Agriculture/land useArable landRice cultivationEnteric fermentationAnimal waste managementBiomass burningCrop productionAnimal waste to soilIndirect N2OA forestation

WasteLandfillsWastewater treatmentHuman wastewater disposalWaste incinerationMisc. waste

~ 1500 sector, technologycombinations

CompoundsGreenhouse gasesCO2

CH4

N2OHFCHFC-125HFC-134aHFC-143aHFC-152aHFC-227eaHFC-23PFCC2F6C3F8C4F10C5F12C6F14C7F16C4F8CF4SF6

Air pollutant/precursorNOx

SO2

(NH3)CONMVOC (25 species)BCOC

Emissions provided on public domain: by country: (240) and grid (1x1), 0.1x0.1 (forthcoming)by year: 1990,1995,2000; GHG 1970-2000, 2004 (forthcoming)

Grid emissions by location of facility (NOx 1x1 oil production):

Grid emissions by transport routes (NOx 1x1 shipping):

Collaboration with MNP (NL), MPI (DE), CAPRI

EDGAR global emission inventory

11

JRC – Ispra

Aerosol chemistry and depositionOzone chemistry and depostionSource-receptor calculationsVerification/evaluation of emission inventories: Inverse Modelling

TM5 zoom model

12

JRC – Ispra

2000

surface ozone with TM5

2030 minus 2000 POLES

climate change policy scenario

13

JRC – Ispra

NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions

air pollutionO3 PM

biosphere

global temperature ecosystems human health

CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions

CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations

fossil fuel use

need for energy, mobility

Earth System machinery

technicalmeasures

behavioralmeasures

structuralmeasures

PO

LIC

Y R

ES

PO

NS

E

integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

14

JRC – Ispra

2000 2030 minus 2000 CLE-IIASA

surface ozone with TM5air pollution reduction scenario

15

JRC – Ispra

2030 minus 2000 POLES2030 minus 2000 CLE-IIASA

change in surface ozone betw. 2000 & 2030

air pollution policies climate change policies

16

JRC – Ispra

Economic losses due to ozone damage to 4 major agricultural crops, Years 2000 and 2030 (million US$)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000U

.S.A

.

CH

INA

JA

PA

N

IND

IA

IRA

N

PA

KIS

TA

N

IND

ON

ES

IA

TU

RK

EY

ITA

LY

BR

AZ

IL

EG

YP

T

FR

AN

CE

ME

XIC

O

CA

NA

DA

20002030

cost of surface ozone on agriculture

17

JRC – Ispra

NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions

air pollutionO3 PM

biosphere

global temperature ecosystems human health

CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions

CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations

fossil fuel use

need for energy, mobility

Earth System machinery

technicalmeasures

behavioralmeasures

structuralmeasures

PO

LIC

Y R

ES

PO

NS

E

integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

18

JRC – Ispra

1750 - 2000 - 1.95 W/m2

2000 - 2030 MFR + 1.12 W/m2

2000 - 2030 CLE - 0.17 W/m2

radiative forcing by aerosols: past & future(direct & indirect effects)

-6.0 -4.5 -3.0 -1.5 0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 W/m2

1750 - 2000 + 2.60 W/m2

2000 – 2050 B1 + 1.90 W/m2

aerosols

greenhouse gasses

19

JRC – Ispra

NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions

air pollutionO3 PM

biosphere

global temperature ecosystems human health

CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions

CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations

fossil fuel use

need for energy, mobility

Earth System machinery

technicalmeasures

behavioralmeasures

structuralmeasures

PO

LIC

Y R

ES

PO

NS

E

integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

20

JRC – Ispra

NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions

air pollutionO3 PM

biosphere

global temperature ecosystems human health

CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions

CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations

fossil fuel use

need for energy, mobility

Earth System machinery

technicalmeasures

behavioralmeasures

structuralmeasures

S

YS

TEM

RES

PO

NS

E

PO

LIC

Y R

ES

PO

NS

E

integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

21

JRC – Ispra

22

JRC – Ispra

23

JRC – Ispra

Basic assumptions of the simulated 2ºC target pathway

• Energy efficiency improvements through dedicated policies, e.g. standards• Global emissions peak by 2020 and decrease by 25% compared to 1990 by 2050• Developed countries take on emission reduction targets in the order of 30% by 2020• Carbon prices in developing countries follow developed countries with a delay of several years, simulating e.g. the effect of flexible Kyoto mechanisms (JI/CDM)• Transport, residential and service sectors are not part of an emission trading scheme but experience policies that are equivalent to a carbon permit price• The global price per ton of CO2 increases from 21 EUR in 2015 to 64 EUR by 2030

source: JRC-IPTS; published in SEC(2007)7