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LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NIGERIAN ENERGY SECTOR

By

Prof. A. S. Sambo Director General/CEO

Energy Commission of Nigeria,Abuja. Nigeria.

email: dg@energy.gov.ng, assambo@yahoo.com

*A Presentation made at the Low Carbon Energy for Development Network (LCEDN) conference, Loughborough, United Kingdom, 4th and 5th April 2012.

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CONTENTS

1. Introduction

2. Energy Resources in Nigeria

3. Energy Supply and Demand

4. Low Carbon Opportunities

5. Challenges

6. Conclusion

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1. Introduction: Country Profile

• Nigeria is one of the 54 African countries situated in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria lies in the tropics within latitudes 4.32N and 14N and longitudes 2.72E and 14.64E, with land area of about 924,000 sq km, which is about 3.1% of African land area.

• The population in 2006 was 140 million, which was about 15% of the continent’s population.

• Nigeria is a federal republic, made up of 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), which serves as the seat of the Federal Government.

• Government is operated through the presidential system, similar to that in North America.

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1. Introduction … Cont’d

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Energy supply per capita (toe/capita)

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NIGERIA(3rd from left)

MALAYSIA/S. AFRICA

RUSSIA

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Graphical representation of the relationship between Energy and the Economy (2005) – IEA(2007)

1. Introduction … Cont’d

• Energy supply into the Nigerian economy is abysmally low for its population and aspiration to be amongst the 20 large economies in the world by 2020.

• Huge amount of useful energy in the form of electricity, beyond the current value of about 20TWh/year from an available capacity of about 4000MW, must be injected to get this national aspiration on tract.

• However, this must be done in a responsible and sustainable manner.

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1. Introduction … Cont’d

• One of the risk factors to sustainable development is the adverse effects of climate change reported to be induced by the upset of natural balance of green house gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide (C02), over periods of about 30 years.

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1. Introduction ….. Cont’d

• However, the excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere responsible for climate change is also reported to be largely contributed by the consumption of fossil fuels mainly in transportation, power generation and process heat activities.

1. Introduction … Cont’d

• This presentation briefly looks at the low carbon opportunities in the Nigerian energy sector, in its quest to meet the energy demand needed to grow prosperity in the nation.

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2. Energy Resources

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S/N Resources Reserves Production

(2008)

Domestic Utilization (2008)

1 Crude Oil 36.2billion barrels 1.98mb/day 0.45mb/day

2 Natural Gas

187 TSCF 2.28TSCF ▪59.1% - Fuel,

Industries, re-injection and gas lift.

▪26.8% - gas flare

3 Coal 2.7 billion tonnes 0 Negligible

4 Tar Sands 31 billion barrels of oil equivalent

0 0.224 million tones

Source: CBN (2009)

a) Fossil Energy Resources

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2. Energy Resources…….contd

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b) Renewables and Nuclear

S/no Resource Reserve Utilization Level

1 Large hydro power 11,250MW 1,972MW

2 Small Hydro power 3,500MW 64.2MW

3 Solar Energy 4.0KW/M2/day

6.5KW/M2/day

-15MW solar PV stand-alone

-No solar thermal electricity

4 Wind 2-4m/s at 10m height -2x2.5KW electricity generator-10MW wind farm contracted in 2009.

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Biomass

Fuel wood 11 million hectares of forest and woodlands

43.4 million tonnes of fuel wood/yr

Municipal waste

- 18.3 million tonnes in 2005* -

Animal waste - 243 million assorted animals in 2001 -

Energy Crops and agric waste

- 28.2 million hectares of Arable land 8.5% cultivated

6 Nuclear not yet quantified 30kW

Source: REMP (2005) * FM EMV

S/N ITEM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1. Electricity generation(billion kWh)

22.03 23.9 24.22(503)*(10,695)**

23.8 23.3 21.27

2. Energy Consumption per Capital(Kgoe/Capita)

151.3 125.5 132.6(680)*(1,780)**

87.1 81.4 80.8

3. ElectricityConsumption/capita(kWh/Capita)

174.6 176.4 181.4(563)*(2596)**

167.6 161.2 142.9

Source: CBN (2006, 2008) *Africa Average-IEA (2007) **World Average-IEA (2007)

3. Energy Supply and Demanda) Energy Supply

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3. Energy Supply & Demand .... Cont’d

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b) Projected Electricity Demand for Nigeria (MW)

(Based on MAED from IAEA)Scenario 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Reference Growth (7%)

5,746 15,730 28,360 50,820 77,450 119,200

Optimistic Growth (13%)

5,746 19,500 43,000 80,000 144,420 260,650

Source: Energy Commission of Nigeria (2009)

3. Energy Supply & Demand .... Cont’d

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c) Projected Petroleum Products Demand (Million Litres)

Year PMS DPK AGO Fuel Oil LPG

7% 13% 7% 13% 7% 13% 7% 13% 7% 13%

2005 12,280 12,280 2,600 2,600 2,690 2,690 580 580 27.8 29.6

2010 15,070 18,230 3,290 3,780 6,040 7,310 1,469 2,664 75.9 150.6

2015 21,220 35,880 5,040 6,450 8,520 14,430 2,839 5,641 227.8 529.7

2020 29,830 61,090 7,370 9,950 11,990 24,610 4,604 11,909 614.9 1,263.0

2025 41,910 107,550 11,150

15,430 16,880 43,380 7,216 26,147 1,374.2 2,483.5

2030 58,830 196,960 17,210

28,820 23,720 79,510 16,029 58,873 2,442.8 4,281.8

Source: Energy Commission of Nigeria (2009)

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4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’dSummary of Renewable Energy Targets Electricity Projection in MW @13% GDP Growth Rate.

S/N RESOURCE Now SHORT MEDIUM LONG

1 Hydro (large) 1938 4,000 9,000 11,250

2 Hydro (small) 60.18 100 760 3,500

3 Solar PV 8.0 300 4,000 30,005

4 Solar Thermal - 300 2,005 10,000

5 Biomass - 5 30 100

6 Wind - 23 40 50

All Renewables 2008.18 4,628 15,835 54,905

All Energy Resources

8,668 21,238 85,668 270,068

% of Renewables 23% 22% 18% 20%

% RE Less LHP 0.8% 3% 8% 16%

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES

a) Hydropower

Nigeria with a hydropower potential of about 15,000MW has about 2000MW only exploited. A large unexploited potential therefore exists that needs to be developed fully. This is an option that needs to be pursued with all urgency and vigour

Prof. E.J. Bala 17

Penstock bifurcation into the 150 kW power house at Waya Dam, Bauchi State

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES. ...Cont’d

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES ...Cont’d

b) Solar Energy:Solar energy has the greatest potential to contribute enormous amount of low carbon energy in Nigeria through solar PV and solar thermal process. About 15MW of solar PV systems, are dispersedly installed in the country, for street lights, water pumping for drinking and sanitation, lighting and communication etc.

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES ...Cont’d

Solar PV System

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’d

.

Solar Water Heater developed by NCERD

Pilot Water Heater at UDUTH by SERC, Sokoto

Solar Water Heater

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’d

c) Wind Energy

Nigeria’s wind reforms 2-4m/s at 10m height is considered low for wind farm electricity generation using conventional wind generations. However, there may be localized areas with greater wind speeds, where reasonable electricity could be generated there from.

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’d

5kW aero generator in Sayya Gidan Gada, Sokoto State

One of the 37 No 275kW Wind to Electricity Machines for the 10 MW Katsina Wind Farm

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’d

d) Biomass/biogas/biofuel

- Power generation from rice husk

- Biogas generation for heating & power generation

- Municipal waste-to-power

- Biofuels (ethanol &biodiesel) from Sugarcane, Jatropha &

Lignocellulolistic feedstocks – use of E10 & B20 approved

- Fuelwood lots development

Dome Type Biogas Pilot Plant at Danjawa Village, Wamakko LG, Sokoto State

Biogas Digester Pilot Plant at NCERD, UNN,

Nsukka

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’d

e) Nuclear Energy:

A 1000MWe PWR nuclear power plant is being planned to come on stream by 2020. A Nigerian atomic Energy commission and Nigerian Nuclear Regulatory Authority are in place for the programme.

4. Low Carbon Opportunities…Contd

• f) Natural gas: Natural gas, a fossil hydrocarbon gas, is mainly composed of methane gas – a gas with the least carbon atom per molecule. Over 70% of the grid connected power generation capacity in Nigeria are natural gas driven. There is room for more gas utilization in power generation and process heat generation using efficient power cycles.

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4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’d

g) Energy Demand Management Option: Energy Efficiency & Conservation

▪ Use of energy audit to identify and rectify areas of energy wastage

▪ Labeling of appliances according to efficiency levels

▪ Use of efficient energy appliances like CFLs, LEDs, improved woodstove, efficient refrigerators and air-conditioners, electric motors etc.

▪ Use of combine cycle power plants to improve overall power efficiency (integrated solar combine cycle (ISCC) & (IGCC)

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’d

SERC 15% Efficient Wood Stove

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’d

Developmental Association for Renewable Energies (DARE) 80 % Efficient Wood Stove

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YEAR WIND STREETLIGHT MINI-GRID WATER BOREHOLES TOTAL

QTY MW QTY MW QTY MW QTY MW MW

2011 4 0.002 5,100 0.816 1 0.04 72 0.086 0.912

2010 - - 25,611 4.098 5 0.068 296 0..379 4.545

2009 8 0.08 18,541 2.318 - - 98 0.98 3.378

2008 3 0.03 1,200 0.096 - - 5 0.006 0.132

2007 3 0.0075 - - 1 0.005 - - 0.0125

2006 - - - - 4 0.02 2 0.0005 0.0205

2005 - - - - 1 0.005 1 0.00112 0.00612

Grand Total 9.04212

ENERGY COMMISSION OF NIGERIA’S PILOT PROJECTS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY (2005 – 2011)

4. LOW CARBON OPPORTUNITIES...Cont’d

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5. CHALLENGES

• Relating higher initial investment• Inadequate legal instrument for low carbon

energy development• Inadequate human and manufacturing capacity

for low carbon energy systems’ development• Inadequate Incentives for the low carbon energy

sub-sector (FIT, fiscal & financial)• Inconsistency in Government policies

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6. CONCLUSION

• Nigeria requires huge amount of energy to get its economy in the path of prosperity. The energy supply must, however, be done in a manner that allows for sustainable development.

• Low carbon energy systems from solar, wind, hydro, biomass, nuclear and natural gas as well as the use of efficient power cycles and energy systems would allow for sustainable development in the long term.

• However, appropriate legal instruments are required.

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