11

Maryland’s Scenario Building Efforts:Maryland’s Scenario Building Efforts: The National Center for Smart Growth The National Center for Smart Growth

Uri Avin, FAICPUri Avin, FAICPPractice Leader, Regional Growth Practice Leader, Regional Growth

Management, PBPlacemakingManagement, PBPlacemakingBaltimore, MDBaltimore, MD

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Maryland State Planning StatutesMaryland State Planning Statutes

§ 5-602.

(a) Plan required.- The Department shall prepare and from time to time revise a plan or plans for development of the State. The plan or plans collectively shall be known as the State Development Plan.

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Series of unique Series of unique GROWTH VISIONING GROWTH VISIONING EXERCISES EXERCISES held in four regions of the state.held in four regions of the state.

Key Principles:Key Principles:

StatewideStatewide

Privately fundedPrivately funded

Action OrientedAction Oriented

Reality Check Reality Check PLUSPLUS

© Paul Coelus, Waterford, Inc. 2006

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NATIONAL CENTER FOR SMART GROWTHNATIONAL CENTER FOR SMART GROWTH Research and Education at the University of MarylandResearch and Education at the University of Maryland

The The URBAN LAND INSTITUTEURBAN LAND INSTITUTE Baltimore District Baltimore District CouncilCouncil

1000 FRIENDS1000 FRIENDS of Maryland of Maryland

Major Funders: Lincoln Institute, HBAM; Cafritz, Prince, Major Funders: Lincoln Institute, HBAM; Cafritz, Prince, Enterprise, Campbell, Abel, Chesapeake Bay Trust…Enterprise, Campbell, Abel, Chesapeake Bay Trust…

More than More than 100 ORGANIZATIONS100 ORGANIZATIONS representing representing community, business, civic, housing, educational, smart community, business, civic, housing, educational, smart growth and environmental interests were involved in growth and environmental interests were involved in this effort.this effort.

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Hagerstown Community CollegeHagerstown Community College

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BaltimoreBaltimore

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Post-event Post-event ANALYSISANALYSIS

COMPARISON SCENARIOSCOMPARISON SCENARIOS

Existing ConditionsExisting ConditionsCOG forecastsCOG forecastsBuild-outBuild-outReality Check ResultsReality Check Results

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Compared with Buildout and COG Compared with Buildout and COG forecasts, RCP results would have..forecasts, RCP results would have..

More jobs and housing close to transit;More jobs and housing close to transit;More jobs and housing inside priority More jobs and housing inside priority

funding areas;funding areas;Less development on green infrastructure; Less development on green infrastructure;

andandLess new impervious surfaces.Less new impervious surfaces.

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The Maryland Scenario The Maryland Scenario ProjectProject

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The purpose of the Maryland The purpose of the Maryland Scenario Project is….Scenario Project is….

To take an informed and careful look at To take an informed and careful look at alternative long-term future scenarios;alternative long-term future scenarios;

To conduct a quantitative assessment of To conduct a quantitative assessment of each scenario;each scenario;

To identify where and how public policy To identify where and how public policy decisions will increase the likelihood of decisions will increase the likelihood of more desirable scenarios.more desirable scenarios.

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The Time is Right for Several The Time is Right for Several ReasonsReasons

New administration with interest in New administration with interest in information-driven policymaking.information-driven policymaking.

Strong momentum from Reality Check Strong momentum from Reality Check exercise.exercise.

Mounting evidence Smart Growth not Mounting evidence Smart Growth not having intended effects.having intended effects.

Critical policy decisions lie just ahead.Critical policy decisions lie just ahead.Because we can.Because we can.

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Critical Policy DecisionsCritical Policy Decisions

How to finance Bay clean up?How to finance Bay clean up?Where to invest next in transit?Where to invest next in transit?Whether to build more bridges?Whether to build more bridges?Whether to toll existing roads?Whether to toll existing roads?How to target economic development?How to target economic development?Where to invest in land conservation?Where to invest in land conservation?How to manage drinking water supply?How to manage drinking water supply?How to revitalize Baltimore?How to revitalize Baltimore?

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Scenario Analysis ExerciseScenario Analysis Exercise

Identification of social, economic, Identification of social, economic, environmental, political, and technological environmental, political, and technological driving forcesdriving forces

Development of scenarios from those Development of scenarios from those driving forcesdriving forces

Spatial articulation of alternative scenariosSpatial articulation of alternative scenariosEvaluation of spatial scenariosEvaluation of spatial scenariosPolicy sensitivity analysisPolicy sensitivity analysis

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Elements of a Development Elements of a Development ScenarioScenario

Certain EventsCertain EventsContinued job growth in the B/W corridor;Continued job growth in the B/W corridor;Rising energy prices;Rising energy prices;Continued immigrationContinued immigration

Uncertain EventsUncertain EventsEconomic revitalization of Baltimore;Economic revitalization of Baltimore;High investment in intercity transitHigh investment in intercity transitGreater state land use interventionGreater state land use intervention

Elements of a Development Scenario

Certain EventsContinued job growth in the B/W corridor;Rising energy prices;Continued immigration

Uncertain EventsEconomic revitalization of Baltimore;Sea level rise making Eastern Shore

uninhabitableRising incentives for development in PFAs

Urban Diamond

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Ongoing and follow-up researchOngoing and follow-up research

Energy consumption modelEnergy consumption modelEnvironmental impact modelEnvironmental impact modelFiscal impact modelFiscal impact modelHousing cost and housing type modelHousing cost and housing type modelStatewide transportation modelStatewide transportation modelLand use allocation modelLand use allocation model

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To where does this lead?To where does this lead?

Short term products: Short term products: 3-5 clearly articulated statewide scenarios, an 3-5 clearly articulated statewide scenarios, an

evaluation of each, and an analysis of major public evaluation of each, and an analysis of major public policy choicespolicy choices

A set of data and tools for future policy analysisA set of data and tools for future policy analysis

Long term products: not yet clear; possibilities Long term products: not yet clear; possibilities include….include…. Nothing moreNothing more A set of policy recommendationsA set of policy recommendations A statewide planA statewide plan

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Partners for Land Use SuccessPartners for Land Use Success

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Project TeamProject Team

National Center for Smart GrowthNational Center for Smart GrowthGerrit Knaap, John FreceGerrit Knaap, John Frece

Parsons-Brinckerhoff Parsons-Brinckerhoff Uri Avin, Marsha KaiserUri Avin, Marsha Kaiser

ECONorthwestECONorthwestTerry MooreTerry Moore

Integrated Planning ConsultantsIntegrated Planning ConsultantsJason SartoriJason Sartori

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Funding SourcesFunding Sources

Environmental Protection AgencyEnvironmental Protection AgencyLincoln Institute of Land PolicyLincoln Institute of Land PolicyHomebuilders Association of MarylandHomebuilders Association of MarylandEnterprise Community Partners Enterprise Community Partners Chesapeake Bay TrustChesapeake Bay TrustCafritz Foundation, Keith Campbell Cafritz Foundation, Keith Campbell

FoundationFoundationOthers in the worksOthers in the works