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Mobility Technology 2002

A Report on Emerging Technologies in Passenger Car, Air Transportation and Heavy Duty Industries

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MTPF 2002

Presentation Outline

MTPF Background Push & Pull Technologies MTPF Themes Assessment Of Industry Needs And Emerging Technologies For

Each Theme Common Technologies Results, Conclusions, Next Steps

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MTPF 2002

Background

Mobility Technology Planning Forum (MTPF) Organized by SAE Emerging Technology Advisory Board Objective - Advise SAE Board Of Directors, Other Operating Boards &

Committees, & Leaders On Emerging Technologies Generally Every Three Years To Be Used For Strategic Planning

Written Report To The Board - March, 2002 Oral Presentations

SAE World Congress (March 6, 2002), World Aviation Congress (November 5-7, 2002), Sheraton

Crescent Hotel, Phoenix, Arizona International Truck & Bus Meeting and Exhibition (November 18-20, 2002),

Cobo Center, Detroit, Michigan

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MTPF 2002

ETAB & MTPF Leadership

SAE Emerging Technology Advisory Board Objective - Advise SAE Leadership On Emerging Technologies Led By Dr. Jamie Hsu, General Motors Research & Development Center

MTPF Organizers Dr. Robert Krieger, The Boeing Company Mr. Bharat Vedak, Cummins Inc.

MTPF Session Chairmen Passenger Car - Mr. Tom Moore, DaimlerChrysler Corporation Air Transportation - Mr. Don Nilson, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics

Company Heavy Duty - Mr. Steve Craney, Riverside Electronics Limited

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MTPF 2002

Process Overview MTPF 2002

Technology Experts From Mobility Industries @ Scottsdale -

January, 2002 Passenger Car, Air Transportation, Heavy Duty

Focused On Three Themes Global Design & Build Universally Friendly Have It My Way

Futurist & Visionary Speakers To Stimulate Thinking For Each Major Theme:

Break-out Sessions By Industry Industry Cross-Linking Sessions To Identify Common Technologies Storyboard Technology Summary For The Themes

Follow-up E-mail Survey On “Push” Technologies

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MTPF 2002

Participants

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MTPF 2002

General Observations

MTPF 2002 Met Expectations Alert Mechanism On Emerging Technologies

Surprising Uniformity In Customer Needs In Seemingly Different Industry Segments Of Mobility Industry Passenger Car, Air Transportation, Heavy Duty

Amazing Convergence Of Technologies Between Industry Segments Information Technologies Wireless Communications Materials Flexible Manufacturing Virtual Reality Tools

Convergence Of Customer Needs & Technologies Reinforce SAE’s Role In Representing The Mobility Industry On Significant Issues

Participation In MTPF Educational, “Constructive Fun” 100% Positive Response In Survey

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MTPF 2002

Push & Pull Technologies

Pull Technologies - Current Or Imminent Technologies Sought (“Pulled”) By Industry To Fulfill Identified Customer Needs Proven Concepts Need Additional Engineering Development Need To Be Made Production Ready Solutions Addressing Known Problems/Needs

Push Technologies - Advanced Concepts That Need Considerable Work To Bring To Fruition Need “Push” From Government, Universities & Industry Immature Technologies Technological Solutions Creating New Opportunities

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MTPF 2002

Push & Pull Technologies (Continued….)

MTPF 2002 Process Was Customer-Needs Oriented Break-out sessions identified customer needs, followed by technologies to

meet those needs. Industry segment output as starting point for cross-linking sessions. Fast cycle times & reliability needs require technologies to be ready well

ahead of placing in customers’ hands. Resulted in a preference in the MTPF towards “pull” technologies.

Follow-up E-mail Survey Of MTPF Participants To Identify Additional “Push” Technologies

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MTPF 2002

MTPF Results

Consolidated Around 3 Themes: Global Design & Build - Industry needs to have global designs and the

capability to build products around the world. Universally Friendly - Societal need to have environmentally friendly

products “from cradle to grave”. Have It My Way - Customer (end user) need to have the product tailored

to his/her specific need.

For Each Of The Themes, Determined: Customer Needs By Industry Technologies By Industry Common Technologies Across All Industries

Lessons Learned - Recommend A “Push” Technology Brain-Storming Session Be Added To Future MTPFs

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MTPF 2002 Universally Friendly

Common Areas

e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)Energy Conversion and Management

Emissions Technologies

On-Board Diagnostics

Autonomous Controls

Improved Human Machine Interface

Passenger Car Industry

Heavy Duty

Industry

Aerospace Industry

Needs

Needs

Needs

Technologies

Technologies

Technologies

Common

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MTPF 2002

Universally Friendly - Passenger Car

Identified 26 Needs And Challenges Top Needs

Congestion Safety Inexpensive And Robust Upgradeable Technologies Future Feature Enablers Recyclability Driver Distraction Passenger Comfort User Friendly (Non-Operational/Operational) Customer Re-Configurable

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MTPF 2002

Universally Friendly - Passenger Car

Identified 28 Technologies Top Technologies

Vehicle Network (Intra-Vehicle) Vehicle Network (Inter-Vehicle) Design For Flexibility And Future Requirements Vision Technologies Voice/Speech Technologies Sensors/Actuators Intelligent Transportation Systems Front And Rear Obstacle Avoidance On Condition-Based Maintenance Operator Simplicity

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MTPF 2002

Universally Friendly - Air Transportation

Identified 21 Needs And Challenges Top Needs

More Accurate Fault Diagnostics High Fidelity And Accurate Simulations Minimum Of Training Required For Product Use Operator Overload Cultural Differences In Interpretation Operational Override Situation Dependent Man-Machine Interfaces Virtual Testing Of Complex Systems Design For Maintainability Rapid Prototyping For Better Products

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MTPF 2002

Universally Friendly - Air Transportation

Identified 20 Technologies Top Technologies

Embedded Sensors, Health Management, Prognostics, MEMS-Based Systems

Expert Systems, Man-Machine Interfaces (Operator Information Overload), Biological System Monitors

Threat Detection Self-Correcting Or Adaptive Controls Comfortable, Health Ergonomics/Environment, Thermal, Humidity Re-Configurability Knowledge Database High Data Rate/Communications For Entertainment Rapid Prototyping

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MTPF 2002

Universally Friendly - Heavy Duty

Identified 30 Needs And Challenges Top Needs

Fault Tolerant Ergonomics Configurable Reusable Repairable Minimum Operator Skills - Migrating Toward Autonomy Upgradeable Conforms To Regulations Safer Or The Perception Of Safer Remanufacturable

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MTPF 2002

Universally Friendly - Heavy Duty

Identified 19 Technologies Top Technologies

Modular Design Knowledge Management Systems Independent Subsystems - Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive Telematics Secure And Robust Internal And External Networks Open “Architecture” Advanced Materials - Plastics, Fluids, Smart Exhaust Aftertreatments Smart Sensors Voice Activation

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MTPF 2002

Universally Friendly - Storyboard Summary

6 Technologies Identified As Common Across All Industries System Design For Flexibility And Modular Independent Subsystems,

Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive Telematics/High Bandwidth Data Transfer Knowledge Management/Expert Systems Prognostics/Embedded Sensors Object Detection And Recognition Human Machine Interface

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MTPF 2002Universally Friendly

Top TechnologiesModular Design

Knowledge Management Systems

Independent Subsystems

- Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive

Telematics

Secure and Robust Internal & External Networks

Open “Architecture”

Advanced Materials

Exhaust Afertreatment

Smart Sensors

Voice Activiation

Heavy Duty NeedsFault Tolerant

Ergonomic

Configurable

Reusable

Repairable

Minimum Operator Skills

Uprgradeable

Conform to Regulations

Safer or the Perception of Safer

Remanufacturable

Air Transportation NeedsMore Accurate Fault Diagnostics

High Fidelity & Accurate Simulation

Minimum of Training Required for Product Use

Operator Overload

Cultural Difference in Interpretation

Operational Override

Situation Dependent Man-Machine Interface

Virtual Testing of Complete Systems

Design for Maintainability

Rapid –Prototyping for Better Products

Top TechnologiesEmbedded Sensors

- Health Management

- Prognostics

- MEMS-Based System

Expert Systems

- Man-Machine Interface

-Biological System Monitors

Threat Detection

Self-Correcting or Adaptive Control

Comfortable

- Health Ergonomics

- Environmental, Thermal, Humidity–Reconfigurable

–Knowledge Database

–High Data Rate/Communication for EntertainmentRapid Prototyping

Common AreasSystem Design for Reliability and Modular

Independent –Subsystem–, Intelligent,

Fault Tolerant, Adaptive

Telematics–/High Bandwidth Data Transfer

Knowledge Management/Expert Systems

Prognostics/Embedded Sensors

Object Detection and Recognition

Human Machine Interface

Passenger Car NeedsCongestion

Safety

Inexpensive and Robust

Upgradeable

Future Feature Enablers

Recyclability

Driver Detection

Passenger Comfort

User Friendly

Customer Re-Configurable

Top TechnologiesVehicle Network

- (Intra-Vehicle and Inter-Vehicle)

Vision Technologies

Design for Reliability and Future Requirements

Voice/Speech Technologies

Sensors/Actuators

Intelligent Transportation Systems

Front and Rear Obstacle Avoidance

On-Condition Based Maintenance

Operator Simplicity

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MTPF 2002 Global Design & Build

Common Areas

e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)Energy Conversion and Management

Emissions Technologies

On-Board Diagnostics

Autonomous Controls

Improved Human Machine Interface

Passenger Car Industry

Heavy Duty

Industry

Aerospace Industry

Needs

Needs

Needs

Technologies

Technologies

Technologies

Common

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MTPF 2002

Global Design & Build - Passenger Car

Identified 33 Needs And Challenges Top Needs

Congestion Differences Among Regions (Languages, Customs, etc.) Fuel Economy & Emissions Common Platforms But Unique Products High Volume, Cost-Effective Manufacturing

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MTPF 2002

Global Design & Build - Passenger Car

Identified 27 Technologies Top Technologies

E-Collaboration Tools To Enable Flexible Production Common CAD Tools Hydrogen Supply (Fuel Cells) Designer Materials - Light, Strong, Affordable

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MTPF 2002

Global Design & Build - Air Transportation

Identified 23 Needs And Challenges Top Needs

Ability For Competitors To Work As A Global Community Reconciling Mass Production With Optimization Competitive Pressures E-Collaboration Variation Control Knowledge Capture To Avoid Mistakes

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MTPF 2002

Global Design & Build - Air Transportation

Identified 20 Technologies Top Technologies

Broadband Communications Information Security & Integrity System Engineering Standards & Protocols Virtual Reality Tools Knowledge Management Communication Tools

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MTPF 2002

Global Design & Build - Heavy Duty

Identified 12 Needs And Challenges Top Needs

Durability & Reliability Coordinated Worldwide Operations Productivity Cost Emissions Safety

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MTPF 2002

Global Design & Build - Heavy Duty

Identified 13 Technologies Top Technologies

Communications Protocols Smart, Autonomous Machines Exhaust Aftertreatment Electric Drives

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MTPF 2002

Global Design & Build - Storyboard Summary

6 Technologies Identified As Common Across All Industries E-Collaboration (Virtual Tools) Energy Conversion & Management Emission Technologies On-Board Diagnostics Autonomous Controls Improved Human-Machine Interfaces

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MTPF 2002Global Design & Build

Top TechnologiesCommunications Protocols

Smart, Autonomous Machines

Exhaust Aftertreatment

Electric Drives

Energy Recovery and Storage

Heavy Duty NeedsDurability and Reliability

Coordinated Worldwide Operations

Productivity (End-User, OEM)

Low Cost

Low Emissions

Safety

Common Areas

e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)Energy Conversion and Management

Emissions Technologies

On-Board Diagnostics

Autonomous Controls

Improved Human Machine Interface

Top Technologies

Broadband Communications

Information Security and Integrity

System Engineering Standards and Protocols

Virtual Reality Tools

Knowledge Management

Communication Tools

Air Transportation Needs

Ability For Competitors To Work As A CommunityMass Production vs. Optimization BalanceCompetitive PressuresVariation Controle-CollaborationKnowledge Capture To Avoid Mistakes

Passenger Car NeedsCongestion

Differences Among Regions

- Languages, Customs

Fuel Economy and Emissions

Common Platform, but Unique Products

High Volume, Cost-effective Manufacturing

Top Technologiese-collaboration

Flexible Production Tools

Common CAD Tools

Hydrogen Supply (Fuel Cells)

Designer Materials

- Light, Strong, Affordable

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MTPF 2002 Have It My Way

Common Areas

e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)Energy Conversion and Management

Emissions Technologies

On-Board Diagnostics

Autonomous Controls

Improved Human Machine Interface

Passenger Car Industry

Heavy Duty

Industry

Aerospace Industry

Needs

Needs

Needs

Technologies

Technologies

Technologies

Common

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MTPF 2002

Have It My Way - Passenger Car

Identified 33 Needs And Challenges Top Needs

Congestion Diversification Of Languages, Customer Needs Worldwide Value Of Time/Convenience (Customers Want Service On Their

Schedule Not On The Manufacturer’s Schedule) Environment, Health And Safety Inexpensive And Robust Upgradeable Technologies & Customer Re-Configurable Features

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MTPF 2002

Have It My Way - Passenger Car

Identified 28 Technologies Top Technologies

Multi-Protocol Architecture Modular Design 7-Day Car Plug-And-Play Architecture Personalization Cards (Seats, Radios, Mirrors, etc.) Recyclable Interiors Wireless/Web Connections - Blue Tooth Telephones

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MTPF 2002

Have It My Way - Air Transportation

Identified 5 Needs And Challenges Configuration Control Challenges Modification Downtime Costs Money Customer (Government) Dictates Requirements, No Supplier Input Obsolescence Causes Spare Parts Problem Design Changes By Subcontractors Cause Problems

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MTPF 2002

Have It My Way - Air Transportation

Identified 14 Technologies Top Technologies

Optimization Tool For Business Decisions – Coupling Engineering And Business

Quantum Computing, Wireless Componentry Rapid Prototyping/Electrons To Parts Modeling Plus Simulation/Virtual Reality Open Systems Architecture Modular Design Processes/Systems Engineering Smart Card With As-Built History

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MTPF 2002

Have It My Way - Heavy Duty

Identified 4 Needs And Challenges “Traditional Customer” Is Changing – Rental, Leasing, “Power By The

Hour”, Other Duty Cycle Changes Drive Need For “Flexible Products” Emphasis on Performance/Functionality, not Hardware Competition Is Driving To Lowest Product & Operating Costs

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MTPF 2002

Have It My Way - Heavy Duty

Identified 9 Technologies Configurable Performance – Modular Stand-Alone Design Performance Monitoring Intelligent Systems Connected To External Communications Tools Sensors Flexible Manufacturing Environment – Speed To Market Knowledge Management Systems To Understand Customer Needs Advanced Materials – Coatings, Lubricants Automatic Qualification Systems “Virtual Reality” Tools

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MTPF 2002

Have It My Way - Storyboard Summary

7 Technologies Identified As Common Across All Industries

Modular Design Virtual Reality Tools Knowledge-Based Product Support Plug & Play – Open Architecture Seven-Day Car Pervasive Computing Tools To Integrate Business & Engineering

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MTPF 2002Have It My Way

–Air Transportation Needs–Configuration Control & Challenges

–Modification Downtime Costs–Money–Customization Options–Obsolescence

–Top Technologies–Optimization Tools for Business Decisions– - Coupling Engineering & Business–Quantum Computing, Wireless –Componentry–Rapid Prototyping, Electronic Parts

–Modeling Plus Simulation Virtual Reality–Open System Architecture–Modular Design Processes– - System Engineering–Smart Card with As-Built History

Top TechnologiesConfigurable Performance

- Modular, Stand-Alone Design

Intelligent Systems Connected to

External Communication Tools

Performance Monitoring

Smart Sensors

Flexible Manufacturing Environment

- Speed-to-Market

Knowledge Management System to

Understand Customer Needs

Advanced Materials

- Coatings & Lubricants

Automatic Qualification Systems

Virtual Reality Tools

Heavy Duty NeedsTraditional Customer is Changing

- Rental, Leasing, Power-by-the-Hour

Changing Duty Cycle Drives Need for Flexible Product

Emphasis on Performance, Functionality

- Not on Hardware

Competition is Driving to Lowest Cost Solution

Common AreasModular Design

Virtual Reality Tools

Knowledge-Based Product Support

Tools to Integrate Business & Engineering

Plug & Play Open Architecture

Seven Day Car - Pervasive Computing

–Passenger Car Needs–Congestion

–Diversification of Customer Need - Worldwide–Value of Customer Time, Convenience–Environment, Health & Safety–Inexpensive & Robust–Upgradeable– Features

–Top Technologies–Multi-Protocol Architecture

–Modular Design–Seven Day Car–Plug & Play Architecture–Personalization Card– - Seats, Radio, Mirrors–Recyclable Interiors

–Wireless-Web Connections– - –Blue Tooth – Telephone

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MTPF 2002

Push Technologies Identified After MTPF

On-board Hydrogen Generation NaBH Fuel - Safe, Dense Storage of Hydrogen Hybrid Electric Vehicles & Systems

Electric Drives/Fuel Cells

Intelligent Vehicle Systems Interface With Intelligent Highways Electronic Safety Cocoon Systems Drive-By Wireless Systems, Operator-Assist Autonomous Vehicles Voice-Activated Systems

MEMS-Based Systems

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MTPF 2002

Push Technologies

Short Range Wireless Technology ( i.e. -Blue Tooth) Smart Cards - With As-Built History, Or Used For Customized

Configurations Designer Materials Diesel Exhaust NOx Absorbers Energy Recovery & Storage Technologies Nano-Technology Self-Assembling Materials

Spintronics

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MTPF 2002

Summary - Common Technologies Identified

E-Collaboration (Virtual Tools) Energy Conversion & Management Emission Technologies On-board Diagnostics Autonomous Controls Improved Human-Machine Interfaces System Design For Flexibility And Modular Independent Subsystems,

Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive Telematics/High Bandwidth Data Transfer Knowledge Management/Expert Systems

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MTPF 2002

Summary - Common Technologies Identified (Continued)

Prognostics/Embedded Sensors Object Detection And Recognition Modular Design Virtual Reality Tools Knowledge-Based Product Support Plug & Play – Open Architecture Seven-Day Car Pervasive Computing Tools To Integrate Business & Engineering

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MTPF 2002

Conclusions & Next Steps

MTPF 2002 Was Successful Served As An Alert Mechanism Several “Pull”, “Push” And “AHA !” Technologies Identified Great Learning & Networking Opportunity

Convergence Of Needs And Technologies In The Mobility Industry Recommend Holding Next MTPF In 3 Years

Should Include Some MTPF 2002 Organizers/Participants Add A Break-out Session For “Push” Technologies

Next Steps In The Hands Of The SAE Board & Operating Boards ETAB To Be Available To Present Findings

Distribution To Participants, Engineering VPs And Through SAE Website Thanks To SAE Staff, ETAB & MTPF Participants