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1
Modeling Work Group
WECC - TEPPCTechnical Advisory Subcommittee Meeting
August 20, 2009
Tom MillerPacific Gas & Electric
Status and Outlook
Today’s Topics
Inter-Regional Wheeling Cost Modeling — Approval Item
Hydro Modeling Task Force UpdateReview of Data-Set Enhancements
for 2009 Study CycleModeling Needs for 2010 Study Cycle
2
Inter-Regional Wheeling Cost Modeling
Approval Item
Background:Variable Wheeling Costs Proposal
MWG presented investigative studies results at TAS Meeting May 27th
Posted discussion paper and study results Received supporting comments and those
opposing now take “neutral” position MWG recommends implementation of
proposed Variable Inter-Regional Transmission Wheeling Cost Modeling
4
Highlights: Inter-regional Wheeling Costs THE PROBLEM: Inter-regional variable wheeling costs are currently
modeled as “zero” cost in the TEPPC data set. From production simulation results performed for the 2008 Study Plan there is concern that Northwest imports into California may have been too high, which “zero” wheeling costs may have been a contributing factor.
ECONOMIC MARGINAL “HURDLE” RATE: Wheeling costs act as a marginal “hurdle” rate between regions to mimic economic realities of transporting economy power form region to region or across multiple regions.
IMPLEMENTATION: will be performed on the 2019 and 2029 cases currently being prepared for the 2009 Study Cycle
MODELING: Inter-regional Wheeling Costs Modeling: PROMOD models 11 pools across WECC Wheeling costs are fully incorporated into PROMODs economic dispatch
algorithm
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Proposed Inter-regional Wheeling Costs Modeling
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Study Year 2019 Study Year 2029Forward Reverse Forward Reverse
Region Connections $/MWh $/MWh $/MWh $/MWhAZNMN - RMPP 5.4$ 2.6$ 6.6$ 3.2$ NWPP - RMPP 7.3$ 2.8$ 8.9$ 3.4$ CANADA - NWPP 4.7$ 2.8$ 5.7$ 3.4$ BASIN - CALIF_NORTH 5.4$ 3.0$ 6.6$ 3.6$ BASIN - CALIF_SOUTH 2.3$ 2.3$ 2.8$ 2.8$ BASIN - RMPP 5.4$ 2.7$ 6.6$ 3.3$ BASIN - NWPP 5.4$ 2.7$ 6.6$ 3.3$ BASIN - AZNMNV 5.4$ 2.7$ 6.6$ 3.3$ CALIF_NORTH - CALIF_SOUTH -$ -$ -$ -$ CALIF_NORTH - NWPP 5.9$ 6.1$ 7.2$ 7.5$ NWPP - CALIF_SOUTH 5.9$ 7.7$ 7.2$ 9.4$ CALIF_SOUTH - AZNMNV 2.6$ 2.6$ 3.2$ 3.2$
• Wheeling rates derived from SSG-WI 2008 Base Case (2% Escalation)• Further calibration work is expected as simulations are performed
Motion to Approve Variable Inter-regional Wheeling Costs are
expected to improve economic dispatch and resulting power transfers between regions from PROMOD production simulations
Questions? Motion: TAS approves implementation of
variable inter-regional transmission wheeling costs using the methodology proposed by MWG starting with the 2019 and 2029 cases in the 2009 study program
7
Hydro Modeling Task Force Update
Hydro Generation Modeling Methods
Historical Data Peak Shaving – shapes energy to peak loads Constant Generation – good for run of river Proportional Load Following – shapes monthly
energy proportional to load Hydro Thermal Coordination – adjusts PLF
results so more generation during high prices.
Canada All plants modeled
using PLF except Peace River which used peak shaving. Converting Peace River to HTC for 2019 case. ~4000 MW capacity. W A C Bennett Dam across the Peace River
Northwest
Methods in use. 7 % nonflexible 26 % historical 67 % PLF
The 2019 study may model 3 formerly PLF plants (11,859 MW capacity) using HTC to facilitate wind integration
Grand Coulee Dam across the Columbia River
California Most plants are modeled
using historical data aggregated to preserve confidentiality then disaggregated to plant level (Irina Green).
23% of 2003 generation uses PLF
We experimented with HTC for Big Creek with limited success. Will revisit HTC but most likely not for 2019 case.
O'Shaughnessy Dam across the Tuolumne River
Western-Lower Colorado
Historical data for all plants.
Plants don’t follow load (except Hoover) so we expect to stay with this approach.
Hoover Dam across the Colorado River
Review of Data-Set Enhancements for2009 Study Cycle
Expanding Needs Existing process:
Transmission congestion Variable costs Limited Scenarios
Expanding Process: Capital, On-going Fixed and Variable costs Renewable Integration Requirements and Costs Transmission and Distribution costs Transmission congestion and system reliability Data set for comprehensive load, resource and policy
scenarios
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Modeling Efforts2008 Study 2009 Study Cycle2017 Cases 2012 Near-Term 2019/2029 Cases
Operating Parameters Updated Updated UpdatedCombined Cycle Modeling Avg. Heat Rate Multi-Heat Rate Multi-Heat RateFuels-Sensitivities Yes Yes YesCO-2 Emissions Yes Yes YesMust-take partial partial Assess
2008 Study 2009 Study Cycle2017 Cases 2012 Near-Term 2019/2029 Cases
Canada Fixed/PLF Pk-S/Fixed/PLF Fixed/PLF/HTCNorthwest Fixed/PLF Fixed/PLF Fixed/PLF/HTCCalifornia Fixed Fixed/PLF Fixed/PLF/HTCWECC-Other Fixed Fixed FixedHydro Sensitivities na Yes Yes
2008 Study 2009 Study Cycle2017 Cases 2012 Near-Term 2019/2029 Cases
CA Demand Response na na UpdateWECC Demand Response na na UpdateVariable Wheeling na na Pending
THER
MAL
HYDR
OSY
STEM
Highlights of Modeling Hydro and Thermal Modeling enhancements improve
operational flexibility attributes Combined-cycle mid-range dispatch Hydro PLF allows shaping to load HTC allows “market” response to marginal costs, which helps
mitigate congestion Fuel and Hydro sensitivities reveal impacts to system across a
range of conditions
Demand Response Programs provide “peak shaving” Variable Wheeling Costs create “hurdle rate” for more
plausible inter-regional power transfer
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Collectively, these modeling improvements are expected to improve production simulations with better estimates of variable costs, congestion and CO-2 emissions
Modeling Needs for 2010 Study Cycle and
Beyond
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Modeling Frontiers
GHG
HydroDispatch
Renewables
TransmissionCongestion
Demand
TEPPC- CONGESTION AND ECONOMIC SCREENING STUDIES
Dynamic Hydro Modeling?
Hydro-Thermal Optimization?
How do we forecast congestion?
Improve Modeling to support congestion metrics
Load-Wind-Hydro Correlation?
Intermittency?Ancillary Services
Modeling?
Energy efficiency?Plug-in Hybrids?
Price Responsive DRP?
CHP?GHG
Adders?
Potential Modeling Frontiers
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Anticipate need for close coordination between TAS Work Groups , Sub-regional Planning Groups and PCC to strive for consistent data and modeling assumptions
2009 Study Cycle 2010 Study CycleLong-term Tools Task Force 2019/2029 Cases
Studies/Scenarios Support TBDScreening Model Support TBDResource and Transmission Costs Support TBD
Variable Generation Sub-CommitteeCoincidental Loads/Renewables Modeling Support TBDIntegration Tools Support TBDOperational Flexibility Support TBD
Ancillary Services Modeling Assess TBD
NEW
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Comments & Questions?
Please send any comments, concerns and/or questions to Tom Miller
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Reference Slides
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Wheeling Costs do Impact to Economic Dispatch
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Annual Energy Difference: PC5B 2012 M-HydroPLF vs. PC5B 2012 M-HydroPLF+VarWhl
(8,000)
(6,000)
(4,000)
(2,000)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
CoalGas Oil
PCUra
nW
H
Convent
ional H
ydro
Pumpe
d Sto
rage
Small
Hyd
ro Bio Ref
Wood
Geoth
erm
al
Solar
Wind
Undefin
ed*
GWh
CANADA
NWPP
BASIN
RMPP
California
AZNMNV
California Native Generation Increases and Imports DecreaseNWPP and AZNWNV Generation Decreases
Southern California Imports
25
EAST OF COLORADO RIVER (EOR)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
PC5B-1 PC5B-3 2004 2005 2006 2007
WEST OF COLORADO RIVER (WOR)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
PC5B-1 PC5B-3 2004 2005 2006 2007
Wheeling Cost Impacts: Imports into Southern California decrease closer to historical levels
Note: Scale much larger than COI and PDCI
Wheeling Costs Impacts Imports Flows PDCI
26
PACIFIC DC INTERTIE (PDCI)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
PC5B-1 PC5B-3 2004 2005 2006 2007
Wheeling Costs Impacts Imports Flows PACI
27
COI
(5,000)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
PC5B-1 PC5B-3 2004 2005 2006 2007
28
EAST OF COLORADO RIVER (EOR)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
PC5B-1 PC5B-3 2004 2005 2006 2007
29
WEST OF COLORADO RIVER (WOR)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
PC5B-1 PC5B-3 2004 2005 2006 2007
How “Hurdle” Rate WorksPROMOD Economic Dispatch PROMOD optimizes in two steps: First with each pool meeting its own load and then
with pool-to-pool interchange available
This two step algorithm is only for purposes of being able to measure which generators ramp up to provide exports and which generators back down to receive imports, within each area and pool.
The price used in solving the interchange is internal to the optimization (not a clearing price from the first step), basically the pool reference price.
If pool A has a reference price of 60 $/MWh and pool B has a reference price of 50 $/MWh, and interchange is enabled between the pools, pool-to-pool interchange will occur up to: the point where the reference prices balance, the point where the reference price difference is equal to the hurdle rate.
Since the pool-to-pool interchange is being solved within the security constrained economic dispatch, transmission constraints will also restrict the amount of pool-to-pool energy
30
Proposal for DRP Modeling
Objective: to model DRP as supply resources based on forecasts reported to LRS for 2019 and 2029.
Proposed Modeling Methodology: “high” cost combustion turbine as proxy for DRP Limit dispatch to ≤ 100 hours per year
WECC Wide DRP amounts to be derived & consistent with sub-regional DRP programs reported to LRS
31
2009 2019 2029MW MW MW
California 2800 4767 tbdNorthwest 500 900 tbdDesert SW 620 900 tbdOther 380 383 tbdWECC Total 4300 6950 tbd
Hydro Sensitivities
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High Medium Low StatusCanada 1999 2002 2003 Northwest 1999 2002 2003 East 1999 2002 2003 California 2005 2003 2002
HOLD SLIDES
33
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Our Challenge • Provide Economic intelligence needed by project developers: –demand
side services, new resources, or new transmission Key drivers & Uncertainties
• Purpose: Inform decision-making about feasibility of economic transmission expansion
Transmission Expansions Require Long-lead times (8-10 years)
• Assess benefits and costs of transmission expansion Expansion Plans run to Investigate effectiveness of transmission expansions for reducing congestion costs
• Analytical objectives Identify the critical few variables that really matter Identify potential interactions that drive results Scope full range of possible conditions
• Provide Economic intelligence needed by project developers: –demand side services, new resources, or new transmission
Key drivers & Uncertainties
• Purpose: Inform decision-making about feasibility of economic transmission expansion
Transmission Expansions Require Long-lead times (8-10 years)
• Assess benefits and costs of transmission expansion Expansion Plans run to Investigate effectiveness of transmission expansions for reducing congestion costs
• Analytical objectives Identify the critical few variables that really matter Identify potential interactions that drive results Scope full range of possible conditions
2009 Study
1. Near-term (2012) to investigate congestion sensitivity to gas prices and hydro conditions
2. Medium-term (2019) to investigate potential congestions under different incremental resource portfolios
3. Long-term (2029) to investigate transmission overlay options.
35
36
Renewables
Re-Dispatch shared by thermal and hydro dispatchable resources
Deeper penetration of intermittent resources may require additional ancillary services Regulation Load Following Back-up reserves
Correlation between load and wind production important in peak periods
37
Canada
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
aMW
Low Med High
East
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
aMW
Low Med High
California
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
aMW
Low Med High
Northwest
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
aMW
Low Med High
Water ConditionsLow Medium High
NW 2003 2002 1999East 2003 2002 1999Calif 2002 2003 2005Canada 72-73 52-53 47-48
38
Future Work
Focus: MWG efforts aligned to WECC Expansion Transmissions Studies
Tool Assessment for Future Congestion and Economic Metrics Alignment of SWG and DWG efforts Study Planning Cycle
Advance Modeling Techniques Advance Data Requirements Advance Studies