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New projections of the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population with the Demosim microsimulation

model

Éric Caron Malenfant, André Lebel, Laurent MartelLisbon, April 2010

Rapid increase in the ethnocultural diversity observed through last censuses Immigrants and diversity highly concentrated in some large urban areas of Canada

Impacts on policy planning led, in 2005, to the publication of Population projections of visible minority groups in Canada, 2001-2017

Context

In 2007, new projections requested by three federal departments responsible of programs related to Employment Equity Multiculturalism Labour market integration Fight against racism and discrimination

Goal : provide an overview of what could be the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population in 2031

Goal of the project

Outline

General overview of Demosim, the microsimulation model used for the projections

Main projection results related to the future ethnocultural diversity of Canada

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Overview of DemoSim :

contents and functioning

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• It is a microsimulation population projection model in which individuals are projected one by one each event occurs at the individual level

• Microsimulation allows to project a large number of characteristics an to use them as determinants of events

The Demosim model

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• Starts with the complete 2006 census microdata base (20% sample)

• Model is at the individual level (no family nor household level)

• Is built to integrate assumptions on components of population change

• Is conceived to project the demographic and ethnocultural composition of the population

• Is programmed with MODGEN

Some specificities of DemoSim

Main characteristics included in the model:

• Place of residence (33 metropolitan areas, provinces, on-off Indian reserves)• Age• Sex• Generation status : 1st (foreign-born), 2nd (children of immigrants), 3rd or more• Place of birth• Religious denomination• Visible minority group• Mother tongue• Highest level of schooling• Labour force participation• Aboriginal identity• Registered Indian Status

Auxiliary variables are also included

Contents of Demosim

• Main events simulated : Births, including intergenerational transfers Deaths Internal migration Immigration Emigration Change of highest level of schooling Change in marital status Change of religion over the life cycle Change in labour force participation Departure of children from parental home

• Each event is generated through a module in Demosim

Modules of Demosim

Main data sources :• Censuses of population• Population estimates• Administrative data

Vital statistics Longitudinal Administrative Database Citizenship and Immigration Data

• Survey data General Social Surveys (GSS) Ethnic diversity survey (EDS) Labour force survey (LFS)

Modules of Demosim

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• The results presented here come essentially from the medium growth scenario :

TFR = 1.7 Immigration level = 7.5 immigrants / 1000 inhabitants Composition of immigration based on 2001-2006 Life expectancy reached in 2031 : females = 86.6; males=83.1 Internal migration : based on 1996, 2001 and 2006 censuses

Scenarios

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Ethnocultural composition of Canada from 2006 to 2031 :

key findings

Towards a high proportion of foreign-born persons in Canada

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

From an European to an Asian foreign-born population

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Rapid increase of the proportion of people belonging to visible minority groups among the Canadian-born (reference scenario)

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Increasing diversity among the population of Canada

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Allophones

Foreign Born

Visible Minorities

Non-Christian Religions

South Asian and Chinese populations could more than double in size between 2006 and 2031

Visible minority groups 20062031

Medium scenario

in thousands percentage in thousands percentage

Total 32,522 100.0 42,078 100.0

Total - Visible minority 5,285 16.3 12,855 30.6

Chinese 1,269 3.9 2,714 6.4

South Asian 1,320 4.1 3,640 8.7

Black 815 2.5 1,809 4.3

Filipino 427 1.3 1,020 2.4

Latin American 317 1.0 733 1.7

Southeast Asian 250 0.8 449 1.1

Arab 276 0.8 930 2.2

West Asian 164 0.5 523 1.2

Korean 148 0.5 407 1.0

Japanese 85 0.3 142 0.3

Other visible minorities 213 0.7 489 1.2

Rest of the population 27,237 83.7 29,222 69.4

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Diversity mostly concentrated among a few CMAs in Canada (proportion of people belonging to visible minority groups)

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

Toronto-Vancouver-Montréal: different ethnocultural portrait in 2031

Visible minority groups by 2031 (reference scenario) in Toronto, Vancouver and Montréal%

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

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• Population diversity is expected to :

Continue to increase until 2031 in Canada To increase within the Canadian-born population To remain concentrated geographivally

Conclusion

To know more about the projections or Demosim

See on the Statistics Canada’s web site – Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (catalogue number 91-551-X)

Contact us :• Eric.Caron-Malenfant@statcan.gc.ca or• Andre.Lebel@statcan.gc.ca or • Laurent.Martel@statcan.gc.ca

Demography Division Clients Service : demography@statcan.gc.ca