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North American Drought Briefingfor Nov 2011
and Sep_Nov 2011
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
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Current Partners
CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Huug van den Dool
EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek
NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker
Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield
Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier, S. Shukla,
Web Masters: Joe Harrison
RFCs: James noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur, John Feldt
Project Funded by NOAA MAPP, TRACS & NASA
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P anomalies over the United States
High lights:
Nov 2011
• Dryness over the Gulf states , Minnesota and Wisconsin continues.
•Oregon and Northern California were dry
• Heavy Rainfall over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley
•Rainfall over Oklahoma, Arkasas and Texas relieved drought
4Dry period in JAS Nov rainfall relieves drought
Area: 93-103W,28-35N
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SPI• Rainfall in Nov improved dry conditions over Texas ,OK and that shows in the SPI3.
•spi6 and SPI12 show severe drought conditions over Texas , Oklahoma and New Mexico
•Drought over the Southeast and along the Gulf continues
•Drought over Minn , Ill and Wisconsin has worsened
The wetness over the Northeast and the Ohio Valley has continued for 3 months
Pacific northwest ???
D3 D2 D1
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Streamflow percentile (USGS)
There are similarities between the SPI and streamflow:
Dry :Southern Plains, Southeast and the Gulf States
OK, AR and Kansas showed improvement
Wet: Wetness over the Northeast and Dakotas.
Oct
Nov
Oct
Nov
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RUNOFF 3-mo
NCEP/EMC/NLDASSRI3
U Washington
Runoff shows improvement of drought over the Southern Plains.drought worsens over Minnesota, Illinois and WisconsinDrought continues over the Southeast
EMC/NCEP
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Multi model SM information
EMC
U Washington
Wetness over the Northeast and the Ohio ValleyDryness over the Southern Plains and the Northern Plains, the Southeast and the Gulf States .
EMC/NCEP
EMC/NCEP
Keetch-Byram Drought index
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Fire over California and Texas
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Drought monitor
Dry conditions continue over the Southern Plains, NM , AZ and the Southeast
Some improvement over OK and Arkansas and Louisiana
Drought continues develop over Minnesota, Wisconsin and Ill
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Temperature October 2011
Temperature
Warm over the eastern U.S.
SSTA
• La Nina strengthens. SSTAs the central Pacific are less than -1C•Positive SSTAs in the North Pacific and the Indian Ocean•Warm SSTAs in the North Atlantic is weakening
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OLRA
Positive OLRAS (suppressed convection) in the centralPacific consistent with cold ENSO
The streamfunction anomaly shows the couplet straddling the Equator and a wavetrain to North America
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Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies
Time
Mar
Jun
Ensemble mean GFS
Positive OLRA associated with ENSO dominates over the central Pacific.Regular MJO since Oct 2011.
Cold ENSOENSO
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Tropics:
•La Nina is on and will last through summer
•A negative PDO persists to winter
• Atlantic SSTAs are normal
SSTA forecasts
Update: Dec 5
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T and P fcsts for DJF 2011
Pr
precipTemp
Cold ENSO impact
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SPI forecasts based on CFSv2IC Dec 5 and 6
• Drought over the Southern Plains will continue for another season,
• Drought is developing over the North Plains and the Pacific Northwest
• Some improvement over the Southeast
SPI forecasts based on CFSv2
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1.
From fcst based on Nov ICs verification
It captures dryness over the Southern Plains andThe Southeast, but it misses the dryness overMinnesota, Wisconsin
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1mo
2mo
U Washington IC=20111119
2mo
SM 2mo Ro 1mo
1mo
2mo
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SM forecasts made one month ago
Verification for Nov 2011
Two month ago
EMC/Princeton sm fcsts
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Ics; Dec 2011
EMC/Princeton fcsts
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Fcst made in Nov 2011 Verification
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seasonalDrought outlook
Need to update
This month
Last month
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Conclusions
Ocean conditions :• La Nina is on and positive SSTAs over the North
Pacific with cold SSTAs along the west coastCurrent conditions:Dry: • rainfall brought some relieve over Texas,
Oklahoma and Arkansas but drought over the Southern Plains continues
• Drought continues to develop over Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois
• Drought of the Southeast shows some improvement
Wet: Northeast and Ohio Valley
Prediction
La Nina•Cold ENSO continues through winterDrought•Drought over the Southern Plains will continue for another season.•SPI, UW and EMC all show the strengthening of drought over the Northern Plains over Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin.•Weakening of drought over the Southeast •Pacific Northwest: models disagree so we need to carefully monitor
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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
• We would like to thank you for your support
• Your suggestions make the briefing better.
• Agenda for the next year:
• Make seasonal soil moisture forecasts based on the CFSv2 operational
• Verify the forecasts objectively
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