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October 2003October 2003

Electricity Markets

Regional Evolution

Randy Berry (randy.berry@esca.com)

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Agenda

What we said last year A look at how markets are evolving Conclusions

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Predictions from last year

Market monitoring improvements Convergence of market rules and

standardization Increased transparency Power system and market system

coordination

To varying degrees, these predictions did occur

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What we did not predict

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Another thing we did not predict…

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Design Principles for Electricity Markets

Ensure Reliable Physical System Operation Provide Choices for Market Participants Facilitate Integrated Market & System

Operation– Physical system operation requirements are

satisfied (e.g. congestion management,security-constrained MW dispatch targets)

– Market incentives directly match system dispatch signals (e.g. natural incentive for following dispatch instructions)

– Market-based Congestion Management

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Implementation Principles for Electricity Markets

Technology is important Training, organization and participant

management– Power system and Market system operators

require extensive training to manage new and larger systems

– Organization may change as they transition from market development to market operations

– Active participant management to set achievable schedules and capabilities

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Common Designs Among Converging Markets

Transmission Access– Transmission rights are financial within market

footprint– Cross market / border coordination based on shared

physical usage on commercially significant flowgates Energy Market

– Bilateral contracts are financial– Physical resources can be self-scheduled or be

scheduled based on spot market bids Congestion Management

– Simultaneous feasibility tests– Locational marginal prices

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Market Migration Implementation

Start with the Basics– Maintain reliable system operation – Allow limited range of market trading activities– Target specific areas to gain market experiences

Recognize the maximum rate of change that can be successfully introduced– Financial models– Physical operations

Build on experiences gained– Understand what worked well & not well– Understand why

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ALSTOM’s RTOs/ISOs

96 97 98 99 00 01 02

E3

AIMS

OASIS

NZ AUSTRALIA

SPP

ISO NE

SPP/MISO

FTR Forward Market

PJM

DMT Market Simulation

PJM

ISO NE

Real Time Market Fwd Market, FTR, TTSE

FERC 888/ 889 NOPR

FERC 2000

PJM PJM PJM

Real Time Market

ERCOT

ALBERTA

Market Simulation

World wide experience and solutionsWorld wide experience and solutions

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FTR - Options

PJM

MISO

CAISO

CRR, Settlements

ERCOT

NZ

FTR

PUCT

Market Monitoring

PJM

Market Monitoring

SeTrans

POS MOS

SeTrans

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Electricity Market Terminology

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Market Evolution – going from here to there

Zonal

LMP

FwdMkt

RT Mkt

Hedge

SingleBuyer

MktSim

MktMon

AncServ

MCP

Pool

Tag/TLR

OASIS

Starting functions orTransitional functions

End state functions(SMD?)

?

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Diagram of Market Evolution (PJM) 1998 - 2003

Zonal

LMP

FwdMkt

RT Mkt

Hedge

SingleBuyer

MktSim

MktMon

AncServ

MCP

Pool

Balance

Tag/TLR

OASIS

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Diagram of Market Evolution (ISO-NE) 1998 - 2004

Zonal

LMP

FwdMkt

RT Mkt Hedge

SingleBuyer

MktSim

MktMon

AncServ

Pool

Balance

Tag/TLR

OASIS

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Diagram of Market Evolution (ERCOT) 2000 - 2004

Zonal

LMP

FwdMkt

RT Mkt

Hedge

SingleBuyer

MktSim

MktMon

AncServ

OASISPool

Balance

Tag/TLR

Retail

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Diagram of Market Evolution (MISO) 2002 - 2004

Zonal

LMP

FwdMkt

RT Mkt

Hedge

SingleBuyer

MktSim

MktMon

AncServ

MCP

Pool

Balance

TAG/TLR

OASIS

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Diagram of Market Evolution (SPP) 2000 – 2001, 2003-2004

Zonal

LMPFwdMkt

RT Mkt

Hedge

SingleBuyer

MktSimMkt

Mon

AncServ

MCP

Pool

Balance

TLR

Retail

OASIS

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Migration considerations

Market systems evolve IT should support evolution, not prevent it The IT and applications must be chosen so that the

path of migration can be traveled– You should not have to replace your system to migrate

The Market Participants will place increasing demands for information and capabilities

Market Monitoring and Reliability will also place increasing demands on the systems

Common functions change during the evolution of the markets– bidding, publishing, settlements, database

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Conclusions

Market functionality is converging Markets accommodate regional differences

by exception rather than the rule Developing markets can leverage IT,

applications, market rules, business process and other existing capabilities.

The industry is moving from a pioneering era to a cultivating era.

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