1 of 15

Steve AosDirector

Washington State Institute for Public Policy

Phone: (360) 586-2740E-mail: saos@wsipp.wa.gov

Institute Publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov

An “Evidence-Based” Investment StrategyIdentifying & Implementing Policies

that Improve Outcomes and Save Money:

The Washington State Approach

Canadian Congress on Criminal JusticeVancouver, British Columbia

October 4, 2013

2 of 15

Washington State Institute for Public PolicyNature of the Institute

Non-partisan, created by 1983 Legislature

General purpose legislative research unit

Projects assigned by legislative bills

Legislative & Executive Board

Directions to WSIPP from the WA Legislature

What works? What doesn’t?

What are the costs & benefits of policies to improve…

Crime (1994, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2012, 2013)

Education, Early Ed (2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2013)

Child Abuse & Neglect (2003, 2009, 2012)

Substance Abuse (2003, 2005, 2009, 2012)

Mental Health (2005, 2009, 2012)

Health Care (2012)

Developmental Disabilities (2008)

Teen Births (1994)

Employment, Workforce Training (2009)

Public Assistance (2009)

Public Health (2009)

Housing (2009)

ResultsApplication in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture

3 of 15

Change in Crime RatesUnited States and Washington:

1980 to 2011

Crime Rates : -45% -46%

United States Washington

Homicide Rates: -48% -49%

ResultsApplication in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture

4 of 15

Adult Prison Incarceration Rates:1930 to 2012

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

*Incarceration Rate

*The incarceration rate is defined as the number of inmates in prisons per 1,000 resident population in Washington or the United States.

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

United States

Washington

ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers

5 of 15

1. Evidence:.

Are There Evidence-Based Policies that Improve Outcomes with a Positive Return on Investment?

Our 3-Step Research Approach

2. Economics:

3. Portfolio:

What works to improve outcomes; what does not?

We analyze all rigorous evaluations on policiesto improve public outcomes of legislative interest.

What is the return on investment?We compute benefits, costs, and risk to the people of Washington State using a consistent framework.

How would a combination of options affect statewide outcomes? What is the risk?

ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers

6 of 15

WSIPP “Consumer Reports” ListsEvidence-based policy options ranked by return on investment

ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers

7 of 15

Change In Crime

(# of EB Studies)

Benefits Minus Costs,per-person, life cycle (Probability: you lose $)

Cog-Behavioral Treatment-7% (38) $9,283 (<1%)

ISP: surveillance only 0% (14) -$4,718 (89%) ISP: treatment focus -14% (17) $7,295 (4%)

Multisystemic Therapy -13% (11) $24,751 (2%) Aggression Repl. Training -20% (4) $29,740 (4%)

Adult Offender Programs

Pre-School* (low income) -21% (11) $14,934 (<1%) Nurse Family Partnership*-17% (3) $13,182 (20%)

Prevention*

Functional Family Therapy -22% (8) $30,706 (<1%)

Drug Tx in Prison (TC or out-patient)-12% (21) $10,974 (<1%)

Scared Straight +8% (10) -$9,887 (100%)

What Works to Reduce Crime?

* Programs have a number of other non-crime benefits; all benefits reported here.

(Examples from our latest results)

Incarceration Per Capita-13% (11) $24,751 (2%)

Prison & Policing

Juvenile Offender Programs*

Police Per Capita -22% (8) $30,706 (<1%)Updated results available soon

Next StepsWashington StateOverview The Numbers

Number of Slots Funded 100

Taxpayer Cost per Slot (net)Total Cost

Total Benefits

Bottom Line: Benefits – Costs

Outcome: CrimeProgram: Functional Family Therapy

for Juvenile Offenders

$3,300$330,000

6047

- 13

Number who recidivate with a new crimeWITHOUT FFT

WITH FFTNet Change

$211,000

$2,743,000

+$2,413,000

Lifetime benefits per avoided recidivist

8 of 15

ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers

9 of 15

WSIPP “Consumer Reports” ListsEvidence-based policy options ranked by return on investment

ResultsThe ROI NumbersOverview Application in WA

10 of 15

Using Research to Craft Criminal Justice Policy:Washington’s Legislative Milestones

1995

2012 & 2013

2000

2005-6

Juvenile Justice → Budget Change

Adult Corrections → Budget Change

What policy portfolio reduces crime & limits prison construction? → Budget Change, Silo

Translated the Legislature's evidence-based investments into budget drivers for prison.

Evidence-based budget requirements (for juvenile justice, adult corrections, children’s mental health, child welfare, adult mental health & substance abuse).

2007

2003 Prevention → Budget Change

1984 Sentencing Reform

ResultsThe ROI NumbersOverview Application in WA

11 of 15

Four Evidence-Based Implementation Issues (Things we’ve learned)

Formal Assessment Process (Tools) to align participants with the right programs, and to focus resources on higher-risk populations.

State-Funded Quality/Fidelity System to assure better adherence to the assessment system

and the intervention program models.

Swift and Certain Apprehension clear evidence (for crime deterrence) for certainty,

but not for severity of punishment.

Funding Formulas with the Right Incentives to encourage interest, adherence, and innovations in evidence-based programs.

Application in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture Results

12 of 15

Keeping Track of Results: Prison Beds AvoidedCumulative Effect of Washington’s History of Evidence-based Programming

01980

Aver

age

Dai

ly P

rison

Pop

ulati

on

Year

2,0004,0006,000

8,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

As of 2013, there are about 1,500 fewer people in prison as a result of Washington’s evidence-based adult, juvenile, & prevention programs. These effects are in the state prison forecast.

Blue Area = Actual Prison Population Years beyond 2013 are current state forecast.

Orange Area = What ADP would have been without the high ROI programs.

Application in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture Results

13 of 15

Trends in Adult Recidivism in Washington: 1990-2007Annual prison release cohorts by DOC risk classification level

31%20%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Among moderate risk offenders released from prison in 1990, 31% were reconvicted for a new felony within three years.

Among moderate risk offenders released from prison in 2007, 20% were reconvicted for a new felony within three years.

Any Felony Re-conviction (within 3 years after release)

'90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06

Lower Risk(20% of total prison pop)

Moderate Risk(17%)

High, Non-violent(19%)

High, Violent(44%)

Risk Classification Level of Offenders In Prison

0%10%20%30%40%

Violent Felony Re-conviction

by year of release from prison

Application in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture Results

14 of 15

VT

MA

RI

CT

WA

OR

ID

CA

NM

KS

TX

IA

IL

NY

MS

FL

16 other US States are now implementing versions of the “Washington Approach” via the Results First project of

the MacArthur Foundation and the Pew Charitable Trusts

Caveat

15 of 15

Two Goals of Criminal Justice Policy:

Crime Reduction(to achieve less crime in the future)

Justice(to address criminal wrongs done in the past)

Benefit-cost and recidivism risk findings can help policymakers with the crime reduction goal,

but they are pretty much silent on the justice goal.

ANNUAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE ISSUEEXCLUSIVE RATINGS

Over 200 Crime–Related Programs and Policies

Programs programs

taxpayer dollars

that reduce crime and save taxpayers money.

programs

BEST 2013Crime

Policies to Adopt

SInstitute

Publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov

Reports Are Available on:

Criminal JusticeJuvenile JusticeChild WelfareEducationMental HealthSubstance AbusePrevention…More on the way

Thank You

Appendix

Prison is Increasingly Used for Violent OffendersChange in Average Violent Felony Risk Scores Since 1990

Year

-5%

+0%

+5%

+10%

+15%

+20%

+25%

+30%

+35%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Since 1990, the average violent felony risk score of offenders released from Washington prisons has increased more than 30%.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

* Crime rates are the number of reported crimes to police per 1,000 resident population. Source: WASPC and FBI.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

United States

Washington

Crime Rates: Violent & PropertyWashington and United States: 1980 to 2010

Violent Crime Rate* Property Crime Rate*

United States

Washington

Violent crime has dropped since the mid-1990s, and Washington’s rate remains lower than the US.

Property crime rates have declined, and the gap between Washington and the US has narrowed.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Juvenile Arrest Rates: Closing the Gap Long-Term Trends in Juvenile Arrest Rates (1985 to 2010)

Juve

nile

Arr

est

Rat

e(a

rres

ts p

er 1

,000

10-

17 y

ear

olds

)

Year

United States

Washington

Prior to the mid-1990s, Washington’s juvenile arrest rate was consistently higher than the US rate.

The gap started to close in the mid-1990s. Today, the two juvenile arrest rates are virtually identical.

DOC Risk-Level Classifications of Adult Offenders: The Timing of Recidivism in Washington State for…

Months After Being At-Risk in the Community

…a New Felony Conviction …a Violent Felony Conviction

Months After Being At-Risk in the CommunitySource: WSIPP analysis of data from the Administrative Office of the Courts and the Department of Corrections

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1 6 12 18 24 30 36

Classified by DOC as: High, Violent

Lower

Moderate

High,Non-Violent Classified by DOC as:

High, Violent

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1 6 12 18 24 30 36

CaveatApplication in WAPrinciplesBig Picture

5 of 14

Keeping Track of Results: the Incarceration-Crime Relationship

Was

hin

gto

n’s

Cri

me

Rat

e(n

on-d

rug

crim

es p

er 1

,000

pop

)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Washington’s Incarceration Rate (ADP per 1,000 pop)1 2 3 4

Key Development: The long-term link between

incarceration and crime in WA appears to have changed, favorably, around 2006.

Crime is now falling without expensive increases in incarceration rates.

Better public policies have had a role in the improved results.

2011

20072008

20092010

‘89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92

‘93 ‘94‘95

‘96

‘97 ‘98

‘00‘99

‘01‘02

‘03‘04 ‘05

2006

‘85

‘86 ‘87 ‘88

‘81

‘82 ‘83 ‘84

1980

ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers

5 of 12

Evidence-Based Community Supervision of Adult Offenders:Three Findings from WSIPP Research Reviews

+1%

Intensive Supervision: Surveillance-

Oriented (14)*

Intensive Supervision: Treatment-Oriented

(17)*

Supervision: Focused on Risk,

Treatment, & Response

(6)*Change in Criminal

Recidivism

-10%($1.93 b/c)

-16%($6.83 b/c)*The number of high-quality research studies on which this finding is based.

ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers

5 of 12

1. Risk More crime can be avoided when policies focus on higher-risk (rather than lower-risk) offender populations.

2. Treatment (delivered with fidelity)Benefit-cost evidence indicates that some policies work and others do not. Careful selection and implementation needed.

3. Swift and Certain Apprehension/PunishmentClear evidence (for crime deterrence) for certainty, but not for severity of punishment.

4. Budget Drivers (aka: incentives)Deliver savings to taxpayers by tying policies to budget drivers (e.g. fiscal notes & caseloads); incentive funding formulas.

Evidence-Based Polcies that Reduce Crime and Save Money:

—four principles that improve the odds of success—