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Pacific Disaster Center

590 Lipoa Parkway, Suite 259

Kihei, Maui, Hawaii 96753http://www.pdc.org - Contact@pdc.org

1-808-891-0525 - 1-808-891-0526 (Fax)

Natural Disasters in the Asia-Pacific Region: Trends and Prospects

International Seminar on Disaster Management:

Emerging Challenges for the Armed Forces

New Delhi, India

December 6, 2005

Craig Chellis

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Asia- Pacific Region Has High Risk

About 40% of all major natural hazards

About 60% of all deaths

• Natural Hazards– Typhoons/Cyclones

– Storm Surge– Flooding

– Earthquakes– Tsunamis– Landslides – Volcanoes– Heat/cold waves– Drought

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• Human Induced/Technological Disasters– Terrorism– CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Nuclear, Radiological,)– Oil/chemical spills– Fires– Transportation

• Biological Hazards– HIV/AIDS– Vector Borne Infectious Diseases (Influenza, Yellow,

Dengue, West Nile, and Lassa Fevers)– Hepatitis– Cholera– Diphtheria

Disaster Threats in the Asia - Pacific Region

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• Emerging Epidemics (?) –Avian Influenza–Ebola–Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome–Mad Cow Disease–West Nile Fever

• Re-occurring Epidemics (?)–Polio–Small Pox (?)

Disaster Threats in the A- P Region (Cont.)

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• Lives and Property– Catastrophic Damage– Loss of Life– Population Displacement

• Disruption of Social/Economic Processes– Food Production– Communications– Transportation

• Introduction of Health and Economic “Stressors”– Associated Diseases– Disruption/Stress of Health/Social Services– Economic/Governance Stability

Effects Are Local and Regional

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Global Economic Losses Increasing

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Economic Losses Highest in the A-P Region

Over 50% of Global Total in Asia

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Severe Weather the Main Global Threat

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Asia Leads in Weather- related Disasters

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Disaster Deaths Highest in the A-P Region

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Risk Is Increasing in the Region

• Asia-Pacific Region is Rapidly Changing– Population Growth– Economic Importance– Cultural/Political Impacts

• Pace of Development and Inability to Withstand Major Disasters are Leading to Increased Risk– Rapid, Poorly Planned Development– Marginal Support Infrastructure

• Regional Development and Natural/Technogenic Threats = Increased Number of Human Disasters

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Who is most affected?

• Of 2,557 natural disasters reported over the last ten years, • Two-thirds of those killed came from countries of low human

development (LHD) • Just 2 per cent came from highly developed nations.

• On average, 22.5 people die per reported disaster in highly developed nations, while each disaster in LHD countries claims an average of 1,052 people.

• By comparing the totals of reported killed with the total number of disasters, the relationship between development and disasters impacts becomes stark.

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Global Natural “Ultra Disasters”

Contrast the “Great Sumatra” Earthquake andTsunami”…• Over 250,000 killed• Damage estimated at US$16B

…With the recent “Katrina” Hurricane Cyclone that resulted in:

• Approximately 2,000 dead• Damage estimated at US$40B

Commonality:• Disproportional Impact on the Poor

Bearing the Brunt…

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Meeting the Challenges

• Become proactive not reactive– Anticipate Hazards– Manage Risk, Understand Vulnerability and

Social/Economic Impacts of Hazards down to the Community Level

– Prepare, and Adopt Mitigation Measures to Reduce Losses of Life and Property and Accompanying Disruption

– Build Resilience to Hazards into the Process of ALL Decision-Makers

• Create Partnerships Among Government, Military, Academia, Industry, and the Public ( Local, National and International)

• Enhance Information and Communications Infrastructure

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Resources & Possibilities

• Increased Access To Data & Information – Remote Sensing– In-Situ, Accessible Networks – Portable Collection & Viewing Resources

• Knowledge & Situational Awareness– Information Addressing Complex Issues

• Risk & Vulnerability Assessment • Land Use/Community Planning • Emergency Management • Health

– Knowledge-based Planning• Preparedness, Mitigation and Recovery, not just response• Linked to Sustainable Development

Meeting the Information Challenges

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Thank You

Questions?

Craig Chelliscchellis@pdc.org

808-891-7941