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1
Quadrennial Defense Review
SES APEX Orientation Program
September 13, 2005
2
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
What is the QDR?
Mandated by Congress
DOD’s Capstone Strategic Planning Activity
Principal aim is to develop guidance for “Operationalizing” the National Defense Strategy Shaping the future force
QDR takes a 20-year outlook Recognizes near term demands
QDR Report submitted to Congress in February 2006 Submitted with the President’s FY07 budget request
3
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Where does QDR fit?
Quadrennial Defense ReviewQuadrennial Defense ReviewQuadrennial Defense ReviewQuadrennial Defense Review
OrganizationalOperational
BudgetBudget
Program Review-POMProgram Review-POM
Capabilities PlanningCapabilities Planning Unified CommandPlan
Unified CommandPlan
Transformation Planning
Transformation Planning
ContingencyPlanning
ContingencyPlanning
Terms of ReferenceTerms of ReferenceTerms of ReferenceTerms of Reference
Resource
National Military StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Military Strategy
National Defense StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Defense Strategy
National Security StrategyNational Security StrategyNational Security StrategyNational Security Strategy
SecurityCooperationSecurityCooperation
Strategic ContextStrategic Context
NDS and NMS at www.defenselink.mil/publications
•BRACBRAC
• Global Posture Global Posture ReviewReview
•BRACBRAC
• Global Posture Global Posture ReviewReview
• Studies Studies
(e.g., Mobility)(e.g., Mobility)• Service Initiatives Service Initiatives
(e.g., Modularity)(e.g., Modularity)
• Studies Studies
(e.g., Mobility)(e.g., Mobility)• Service Initiatives Service Initiatives
(e.g., Modularity)(e.g., Modularity)
4
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
How 2005 QDR differs from past QDRs
The U.S. is a nation at war
Defense Strategy was completed before the QDR kickoff
A “rolling QDR”: executable guidance developed as issues mature during the Review• QDR will inform the FY07 Program Review.
The Department’s force planning construct will be a major QDR output
Inclusive: Outreach to Congress, industry and allies/partners – benefit from their strategic thinking
An integrated, enterprise-wide review with senior-level participation throughout
5
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
2005 QDR Terms of Reference
Outlined guiding principles and assumptions
Summarized strategy
Provided guidance to operationalize the strategy by considering 4 focus areas
Directed formation of six issue teams
6
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Guiding Principles and Assumptions
Foster a structured, open and transparent competition of ideas during the Department’s deliberations
Draw upon lessons learned from Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM
Balance near-term operational demands with longer-term challenges and opportunities
Develop executable guidance as issues mature during the QDR, then follow through with execution roadmaps
Treat the Department’s force planning construct as a QDR output rather than an input
7
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Strategy (1) - Security Challenges
Irregular Non-state and state actors employing
“unconventional” methods to counter stronger state opponents—terrorism, insurgency, etc.
(e.g., terrorism, insurgency, “unrestricted warfare”)
Disruptive Competitors employing technology or
methods that might counter or cancel our current military advantages.
(e.g., technological – bio, cyber, or space war, ultra miniaturization, directed-energy, other – diplomatic blackmail, cultural or economic war)
Traditional States employing military forces in well-
known forms of military competition and conflict.
(e.g., conventional air, sea, and land forces, and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers)
Catastrophic Terrorist or rogue state employment of
WMD or methods producing WMD-like effects against American interests.
(e.g., attack on homeland, global markets, or key ally that would generate a state of shock and preclude normal behavior)
8
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Strategy (2) - Strategic Evolution
Strategic Capability
High
Moderate
LowPe
rce
ive
d C
ap
ab
ilit
y E
mp
ha
sis
LesserContingencies
FutureNear Peer
Major Theater War
’93 Bottom-Up Review
High
Moderate
LowPe
rce
ive
d C
ap
ab
ilit
y E
mp
ha
sis
LesserContingencies
FutureNear Peer
Major Theater War
’01 QDRHigh
LowPe
rce
ive
d C
ap
ab
ilit
y E
mp
ha
sis
Pe
rce
ive
d C
ap
ab
ilit
y E
mp
ha
sis
LesserContingenciesLesserContingencies
FutureNear Peer
FutureNear Peer
Major Theater WarMajor Theater War
’05 Defense Strategy’05 Defense Strategy
High
Moderate
LowPe
rce
ive
d C
ap
ab
ilit
y E
mp
ha
sis
LesserContingencies
FutureNear Peer
Major Theater War
’97 QDR
Strategic Capability
Strategic CapabilityStrategic CapabilityStrategic Capability
2 MTWs State-on-State Cross Border Conflict
2 MTWs State-on-State Cross Border Conflict
Smaller Scale Contingencies
1-4-2-1
Ungoverned Areas Asymmetric Threats
Future Peer
GWoT / Ungoverned Areas
Irregular Warfare Low-End Asymmetric
1-4-2-1(State-on-State War)
Disruptive Technologies
Superiority in theCommons (Space, Cyber, Seas, Air)
Industrial AgeNear Peer
Somalia, Bosnia, Rwanda,Haiti
Somalia, Bosnia, Rwanda,Haiti
Citadel I & II Citadel I & II 11 Sept / GWoT OEF / OIF 4 Challenges
11 Sept / GWoT OEF / OIF 4 Challenges
• Desert Storm• Soviet Collapse• Desert Storm• Soviet Collapse
9
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Four QDR Focus Areas
Centerpiece of QDR effort is assessment of DoD’s wherewithal to address four focus areas:
• Building partnerships to defeat terrorist extremism
• Defending the homeland in-depth
• Shaping the choices of countries at strategic crossroads
• Preventing the acquisition or use of WMD by hostile state or non-state actors
Caveats
• Focus areas are not all inclusive
• Focus areas are not just in the far term
10
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Six Major Issues
Six Integrated Project Teams examine the following sets of issues in addressing the four focus areas
• Capability Mix
• Joint Enablers (e.g., space, logistics, ISR)
• Roles / Missions and Organizations
• Manning and Balancing the Force
• Business Practices and Processes
• Authorities
A senior civilian and military leader for each issue
11
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Outreach
QDR Organization
Integration Group Integration Group (PDUSDP, PA&E, J-5, J-8(PDUSDP, PA&E, J-5, J-8
INT
EG
RA
TE
D P
RO
DU
CT
TE
AM
S
Joint Enablers
Capability Mix
Roles, Missions &
Organizations
Manning & Balancing the Force
Business Practices & Processes
Authorities
Opt
ion
Deve
lopm
ent
Recommendations
SecDef⇧
SLRG
SecDef⇧
SLRG
SupportingSupportingIPTIPT
AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources
EnglandGiambastiani
EnglandGiambastiani
SupportingSupportingIPTIPT
AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources
HarveyOdiernoHarveyOdierno
SupportingSupportingIPTIPT
AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources
DuBoisSharp
DuBoisSharp
SupportingSupportingIPTIPT
AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources
ChuWillard
ChuWillard
SupportingSupportingIPTIPT
AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources
KriegMcNabb
KriegMcNabb
SupportingSupportingIPTIPT
AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources
CamboneMoseley
CamboneMoseley
DepSecDef, VCJCS
⇧QDR Co-Leads
DepSecDef, VCJCS
⇧QDR Co-Leads
12
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
QDR Phasing and Timelines
QDR TOR
Phase IFirst 4 Roundtables
(Focus Areas)
Phase II36 Issues – TOR/Taskers from 4 Roundtables
& FPC Development
Phase IVPR-07 Program Guidance
Develop Report & SPG
QDR Report,
SPG
SLRG Guidance
(July)
PDM Guidance(Sept-Oct)
Phase IIIMajor Muscle Movement Options, PR-07
Decisions
UNCLASSIFIED
13
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
QDR Co-Lead Meetings
Co-Lead Meetings:
• Day-long sessions
• Co-chaired by DepSecDef and the VCJCS
• Vice Chiefs, Under Secretaries, all IPT Co-Leads, CoComs, NGB Chief
• Other agencies: State, Justice, DHS
• International allies: Canada, UK, Australia
Objectives:
• Develop a common understanding of major challenges / threats, desired end states and approaches
• Take an unconstrained look at the capabilities the nation needs to meet the major challenges / threats
• Obtain senior leader guidance and priorities
Cornerstone of Strategy-Based, Inclusive, and Unconstrained QDR Cornerstone of Strategy-Based, Inclusive, and Unconstrained QDR
UNCLASSIFIED
14
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Co-lead meetings considering options in 12 major areas:
• 4 integrated and joint capabilities:
−Air−Ground−Maritime
−Special Operations
• ISR
• Counter WMD
• Tailored Deterrence
• Mobility and Agility
• Persistent ISR / Net Centricity
• Build Partnership Capacity
• Homeland Defense
• Human Capital Strategy
12 QDR Major Muscle MovementsUNCLASSIFIED
15
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
QDR-2001 construct for shaping / sizing the force (1-4-2-1)
(1) Defend the U.S. homeland
(4) Operate in and from four forward regions
(2) Swiftly defeat adversaries in overlapping military campaigns while(1) preserving for the President a “win decisively” option
Also, be capable of conducting limited number of lesser contingencies (e.g., tsunami relief)
Updating the Force Planning Construct
StrengthsStrengths Post-9/11 ShortcomingsPost-9/11 Shortcomings Introduced Homeland Defense
Associated with forward deterrence
Adapted previous “one size fits all” concept to two broad classes (swift defeat, win decisive)
Maintained ability to fight and win wars swiftly
Does not capture War on Terror nor clearly define Homeland Defense
Limited to forward deterrence in four defined regions
Emphasizes major combat over deterrence, stability operations, and War on Terror
Does not adequately account for duration, scale / intensity and frequency
UNCLASSIFIED
16
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Next Big Steps
Complete reviews of Major Muscle Movement options
Develop:• QDR Report (Feb 2006)• FY07 budget request (Feb 2006)• Strategic guidance for FY08 and beyond• Implementation Roadmaps• Chairman’s independent risk assessment
Interagency and allied consultation
Roll-out: Congress, allies, industry, public, internal
UNCLASSIFIED
17
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Backups
UNCLASSIFIED
18
QDR Integration
September 13, 2005
Major Events Driving ChangeMajor Events Driving Change
LEGENDLEGEND
Presidential Speeches DoD Reports
US Military Action USG Reports
Terrorist Activity Commission Reports
QDR ‘01 Homeland Security
National Security Strategy
Combating Terrorism Secure Cyberspace Protection of Critical Infrastructures
Weapons of Mass Destruction
9/11 Commission
2005200420032002200120001999
Riyadh London / Egypt
Musharrafassassination
attempts
Bali
Istanbul
USS Cole
9-11 / OEF Afghanistan
QDR’05
Due Feb 06
Citadel Speech I Citadel Speech II
Liberia Haiti
Libya
OIF Iraq
Beslan, Russia
Madrid
Defense Strategy
War on Terrorism Plan
Silberman/Robb (WMD)