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Research Methodology
EPH 7112
LECTURE 5: HYPOTHESIS PHASE
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Contents
Hypothesis phase Specify solution Set Goals Define Factors Postulate Performance Metrics
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Hypothesis Phase
Missing pieces of jigsaw puzzle
Intelligent guess
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Hypothesis Phase
Stems from the Greek wordhupotithenai To supposeTo speculate
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Hypothesis Phase
Implies fundamental process of hypothesis
To speculate about cause-effect relationship
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Hypothesis Phase
ObjectiveTo propose a solution to problemTo propose a set of goalsTo propose hypotheses for the
solutionTo propose factors and performance
metrics
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Hypothesis Phase
Speculative knowledge
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Hypothesis Phase Steps
Specify solution Set Goals Define factors Postulate Performance Metrics
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Specify Solution
Solution to solve problem Experiments to test solution
EffectivenessConducted in Synthesis Phase
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Specify Solution
Mechanism – the solution Procedure – how to apply solution
Existing mechanism, known procedure
New mechanism, new procedureExisting mechanism, new procedureNew mechanism, known procedure
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Specify Solution
New solution, specification include:Engineering drawingsSchematicsRecipesFlowchartsPseudo codeAlgorithmsMathematics
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Specify Solution
Existing solutionShort descriptionWith citations, referencesTechnical reports, journal, articlesManufacturer’s specifications
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Specify Solutions
Several different solutions To pick the best solution Or more than one solution required
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Set Goals
Specifies how well the solution works Goals achieved with experiments
carried out in Synthesis Phase Experimental results used for
conclusion in Validation Phase
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Set Goals
Each goal will correspond to experiments in Synthesis Phase
Experiment required to acquire knowledge
Knowledge that characterizes the effectiveness of the solution for that problem
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Research Hypothesis
A declarative sentence that asserts a desired, expected or possible conclusion of a goal
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Set Goals
Task: Identify faster traffic Problem: Which Highway has higher
traffic speed? Objective: To decide which highway has
faster traffic that the other highways
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Set Goals
Solution Mechanism: Measure traffic speed using pneumatic detectors
Goal: To identify which highway has higher traffic speed
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Define Factors
Knowledge propositions established Fixed parameters or condition Factors – variable parameters Varied to observe effect on the
performance
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Define Factors
1st Step – Make a complete list of all parameters and conditions
Parameters – specification of system Condition – specification of the
environment
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Define Factors
2nd Step - From the complete list, choose the factors
Choice must be justified Duration Realistic
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Define Factors
3rd Step – What values should be assigned to the fixed parameters?
Sometimes just common sense However, some values are not
common
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Define Factors
Operating Pilot (OP) point Informal search for values suitable for
the governing proposition (parameters)
search for range of values suitable for factors
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Define Factors
Performance a function of joint values of parameters and factors
Performance not same when different parameters or factors are changed
Gradient Ascent (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steepest_descent)
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Postulate Performance Metrics
Performance metric is a postulate that transforms the results into measures of performance for drawing conclusions about the objective
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Postulate Performance Metrics
Required to establish “what to measure”
Finally used to conclude about the objective