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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Systems Thinking and Modelingfor Policy Analysis and Design

Dynamics: Graphs over time

Structure: Causal-loop Diagrams

Stocks and Flows

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Events and DecisionsEvents and Decisions

Patterns of BehaviorPatterns of Behavior

System StructureSystem Structure

ReactiveReactive

AdaptiveAdaptive

GenerativeGenerative

Incr

easi

ng

leve

rage

Incr

easi

ng

leve

rage

A Systems Perspective

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

New York, Chicago & Philadelphia, 1800-2000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

180018101820183018401850186018701880189019001910192019301940195019601970198019902000

Philadelphia

Chicago

New York

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Populations of Selected U.S. Cities, 1900-2000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

AtlantaBaltimoreBirminghamBostonBuffaloCincinnatiClevelandMinneapolisNewarkPittsburghSan FranciscoSt. LouisWashington

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Structure and Dynamics of Terrorist Cells

New recruits

Terrorist group Losses

Terrorist actions

Suppression activities

Zeal

Peripheral support

Funding

Martyrs to the cause

(R)

(R)

(B)

(R)

(R)

(R) (B)

(R)

(R)

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

The Classic Policy Planning LoopGoal Perceived

gapPlannedaction to

reduce gap

Implementedaction

Intendedactions

Actual state ofthe system

Perceivedstate

Implicit,unstated goals

Changes inthe State ofthe system

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

The Classic Loop with ComplicationsGoal Perceived

gapPlannedaction to

reduce gap

Implementedaction

Intendedactions

Actual state ofthe system

Perceivedstate

Autonomouschanges in the state

of the system

Implicit,unstated goals

Changes inthe State ofthe system

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

The Classic Loop with ComplicationsGoal Perceived

gapPlannedaction to

reduce gap

Implementedaction

Intendedactions

Actual state ofthe system

Perceivedstate

Unintendedactions

Autonomouschanges in the state

of the system

Implicit,unstated goals

Changes inthe State ofthe system

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

The Classic Loop with ComplicationsGoal Perceived

gapPlannedaction to

reduce gap

Implementedaction

Intendedactions

Actual state ofthe system

Perceivedstate

Unintendedactions

Autonomouschanges in the state

of the system

Ramifyingeffects

Implicit,unstated goals

Changes inthe State ofthe system

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Human Activity, CO2, and Global Temperature

Thought experiment:

Capitalstock

capitalinvestment

AtmosphericCO2CO2 annual

productionUptake of

atmospheric CO2

Economicactivity

Global heatenergyincoming solar

heat energyoutgoing global

heat energy

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Dynamic Planning for COIN in Afghanistan

Source: PA Consulting

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Urban Dynamics

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Systems Thinking in a Nutshell

• Dynamic thinking• Graphs over time

• Stock-and-flow thinking• Accumulations and what changes them

• Feedback thinking• Reinforcing and balancing loops of circular causality

• Thinking endogenously• ‘The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves…’

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany

Policy Resistance in Complex Systems