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Scenario-Based Planning for the Impacts of

Multimodal Transportation Policies

James H. LambertMatthew J. Schroeder

October 14, 2008

Project Steering Committee

Mary Lynn Tischer, Director, Commonwealth of Virginia Multimodal Office

Wayne Ferguson, Virginia Transportation Research Council

Katherine Graham, Commonwealth of Virginia Multimodal Office

Mark McCaskill, Roanoke Valley Area Metropolitan Planning Organization

John Miller, Virginia Transportation Research Council Kimberly Pryor Spence, Virginia Department of

Transportation

Acknowledgments Ralph Davis, Virginia Deputy Secretary of Transportation Michael Garrett, Virginia Department of Transportation Matthew Grimes, Virginia Transportation Research

Council Roger Howe, Virginia Transportation Research Council Ben Mannell, Virginia Department of Transportation Joost Santos, University of Virginia Chad Tucker, Virginia Department of Transportation Commonwealth’s Multimodal Transportation Office VTrans2035 Virginia Department of Transportation Virginia Transportation Research Council

Project Team

James Lambert, Principal Investigator Matthew Schroeder, Graduate Research Assistant Megan Kersh, Undergraduate Student Asad Saqib, Undergraduate Student Ward Williams, Undergraduate Student

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Prologue

My administration will begin immediately and work urgently to address the transportation dilemma that complicates our lives and threatens our prosperity. Together, let us

find answers through a dialogue that is shaped not simply in terms of dollars and cents, but also by new

solutions and common sense. A lack of coordination and planning has us stuck where we are today.

-Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Inaugural Address, 2006

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Summary of Accomplishments Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning Assessed the needs of regional transportation

agencies in long-range planning Developed a scenario-based analysis of the

regional impacts of transportation policies Designed an Excel workbook Demonstrated the analysis in the Roanoke

region with the twenty-one multimodal policies of VTrans2025

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Presentation Outline

Introduction and motivation Overview of approach Background Methodology Demonstration of the workbook Results and recommendations

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Motivation Scenario-based analysis is essential for the

VTrans 2035 planning horizon Virginia’s transportation system in 2008

• More than 60,000 miles of roadway• 67 public-use airports• 4 state-operated port terminals• Over 40 fixed route transit systems• Extensive freight and passenger rail• Bicycle and pedestrian amenities

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VTrans 2035 “…policy framework for an

integrated multimodal transportation system that improves mobility and adds to the prosperity and the quality of life for Virginia”

Modal agencies• DOAV• VDRPT• VDOT• DMV• VPA

Pierce R. HomerSecretary of Transportation

VTrans2035 Advisory Committee

Modal Agencies

Analysis for scenario-based transportation planning

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Overview of Approach

Study the impacts of multimodal transportation policies by region across Virginia

Understand how future scenarios and related assumptions matter to Virginia’s transportation system

Support coordination among regional and statewide transportation planners

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Regional Planning Organizations

Source: 2035 Virginia State Highway Plan 2008

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Milestones September 2007: Contact with Virginia’s Multimodal Office November 2007: Virginia Transportation Conference, Roanoke,

Virginia December 2007: Roanoke Valley Alleghany MPO student paper

competition February 2008: Meeting with Dr. Tischer and Deputy Secretary

Ralph Davis, Michael Garrett, Kimberly Pryor-Spence, Katherine Graham, VDOT, on economic input output analysis

February 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO March 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO May 2008: Briefing with Dr. Tischer and Katherine Graham May 2008: Briefing with VTrans2035 Advisory Committee June-September 2008: Survey of MPOs/PDCs August 2008: Draft of final report submitted to the VTRC September 2008: Second draft final report, 80% executive review

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Project Website

www.virginia.edu/crmes/multimodal2

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Scenario-Based Planning

Use of scenarios to guide forecasts, projects, and policies

Advocated by the Federal Highway Administration

Several existing different approaches for methodology

Source: FHWA, MWCOG, various sources

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Sample of Literature

Cervero, R., & Aschauer, D. (1998). Economic impact analysis of transit investments:Guidebook for practitioners.

Cole, Sam (2001). Dare to Dream: Bringing Futures into Planning. Journal of the

Flyvbjerg, B, Holm M. K., Buhl, S. (2005). How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?

Jarke, M., Bui, X.T. and Carroll, J.M. (1998). Scenario management: an interdisciplinary approach.

Wachs, M. (2001). Forecasting versus Envisioning: A New Window on the Future.

Bartholomew, K. (2005). Integrating Land Use Issues Into Transportation Planning: Scenario Planning.

Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. (2005). Regional Analysis of What-If Transportation Scenarios.

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Sample of Literature (cont.) Federal Highway Administration. (2007). FHWA Scenario Planning

Initiatives. Federal Highway Administration. (n.d.). Scenario planning. National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board and the

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. (2004). What If The Washington Region Grew Differently: The TPB Regional Mobility and Accessibility Scenario study.

Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission. (n.d.). Jefferson Area Eastern Planning Initiative.

Watts, R. A., Poitras, C., Chamberlin, R. (2008). Citizen Participation and Frame Analysis in the Development of Scenarios for the VTrans Long Range Transportation Business Plan.

Virginia Department of Transportation. (2004). Virginia’s Statewide Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Plan: Phase 3 and Final Report to the General Assembly.

Zergas, C., Sussman, J., Conklin, C. (2004). Scenario Planning for Strategic Regional Transportation Planning.

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Types of Scenarios Spatial Economic Demographic

• Number of households, in/out-migration Other

• Environmental• Availability of energy resources• National emergencies• Natural disasters• Workforce

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Spatial Scenarios Urban core repopulates

• People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged• Public transportation increases, clean transportation

Sprawl accelerates• Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases• Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion

Information technology amenities grow• More workers telecommute so sprawl continues• Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas

Region undivided• Shift job and household growth from west to east

Transit oriented development• More people live and work closer to transit

Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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Economic Scenarios Regional economy strengthens

• Many workers move to region, sprawl continues

Global trade intensifies• Population decreases, increased use of automobiles

Energy cost rises• People relocate to more transit-oriented locations• Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases

Infrastructure investment expands• May draw people to area in the long run

Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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Demographic Scenarios

In-migration increases• Total population increases, decreased use of

auto

Out-migration increases• Population decreases, increased use of auto

More households• Increased household growth to balance

forecast job growthSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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Other Scenarios “Green” region emphasized

• Use of public transit, bike, etc.

Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened• Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation• Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized

Carbon constrained future Energy constrained future

• Global price shocks and shortagesSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

Methodology Components

Transportation Policies

Performance Goals

Future Scenarios

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VTrans Statewide Policies

Twenty-one policies of VTrans and Office of Multimodal Transportation Planning

Sample of policies• P.4 – Fund rail• P.6 – Strengthen planning and modeling• P.24 – Going green (specific to region)• P.23 – Improve bicycle and pedestrian paths (specific

to region)

MPO Interest in VTrans Policies

Source: VTrans survey 2008

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Future Scenarios

Used nineteen scenarios based on studies throughout the U.S.

Focused on five scenarios for the region in our case study• S.2 – Sprawl accelerates• S.17 – Retirement• S.18 – Natural disaster• S.3 – IT amenities grow• S.19 – Decrease in air quality

MPO Interest in Future Scenarios

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Source: VTrans survey 2008

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Transportation Goals

Six high level goals with 34 performance criteria High level criteria:

• C.1 – Safety and Security• C.2 – Preservation and Management• C.3 – Efficient Movement of Goods and People• C.4 – Economic Vitality• C.5 – Quality of Life• C.6 – Program Delivery

Source: VTrans 2025

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Excel Workbook - Introduction

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Workbook – Policy Definitions

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Workbook – Policy Ratings

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Workbook – Scenario Definitions

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Workbook – Goals Re-Weighting

Goals Re-Weighting Example

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Workbook – Policy Comparison

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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)

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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)

Interpretation of Results

Results are useful to group policies by performance

Results are useful to group policies by upside or downside sensitivity to scenarios

Decision making by VTrans and MPOs is informed by choices of scenarios, policies, and performance criteria

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Summary of Accomplishments Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning Assessed the needs of regional transportation

agencies in long-range planning Developed a scenario-based analysis of the

regional impacts of transportation policies Designed an Excel workbook Demonstrated the analysis in the Roanoke

region with the twenty-one multimodal policies of VTrans2025

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Recommendations

Deploy Excel workbook for survey of additional regional organizations

Collate the results in support of VTrans2035, comparing the regional impacts of VTrans policies

Provide key input to upcoming summit of transportation thought and vision leaders in Charlottesville, November 2008

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Recommendations (cont.) Costs/resources of deployment

• Time to interact by telephone, email, and Excel workbook with regional planners

• Time to compile and present comparison comparing regional results

• Maintenance of website with Excel workbook Benefits

• Improved coordination of VTrans2035 and the regional planning organizations

• Policies that are robust to disruptive scenarios and appropriate to Virginia regions

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Next Steps Study VTrans2035 multimodal corridors Find the sensitivity of the corridors to

VTrans “issues” Study the sensitivity of VTrans and other

statewide policies to future scenarios of climate change• Sea-level rise• Frequencies of storms, flood, drought• Intensities of storms, flood, drought• Demographic/socioeconomic climate impacts

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RVAMPO Student Paper Award to UVa/VTRC Student Team