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SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT
Dr. Carlos E. VenturaKate Thibert & Hugón Juárez García
February 26th, 2007
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Acknowledgements
Dr José Martí, Dr Jorge Hollman, David Grigg (Campus and Community Planning), Alejandro Cervantes, Juan Carlos Carvajal, Jack Rong, Lucy Liu, Paul Couch and Dave ManciniMatt Shannon and Natanella Vukojevic (Records office), Erin Kastner and Doug Smith (UBC Utilities), John Manougian (Hospital), JIIRP members (Professors and students)
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Outline
Seismic Risk Assessment Building Damage Assessment Lifeline Damage Assessment UBC Campus Case Ongoing and Future Tasks Conclusions
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Our Goals
Evolve from a Culture of Reaction into a Culture of Preparedness
Analysis of Interdependencies among Critical Infrastructures Evaluate Hazards Develop Scenarios Analysis of critical interdependencies Reconsider strategies
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Seismic Risk Assessment
Seismic Risk Assessment
Seismic hazard assessmentSite specific ground motion parameters
Soil related problems (liquefaction, subsidence, and others)
Tsunamis, etc
Direct damageBuildings
Non structuralLifelines
Indirect Losses
Indirect damageFloods
Fire
SurveyClassification and
characterization of the structural systems and
lifelinesDatabase
Direct LossesAffected inhabitants (deaths, injured, homeless)
Economic loss
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PGA / MMIPGA / MMI
Select Probability LevelSelect Probability Level
% Damage and $ Loss% Damage and $ Loss
Damage TablesDamage Tables
Building TypeBuilding TypeSeismicHazard
BuildingVulnerability
SeismicRisk
Seismic Risk
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Vulnerability
The seismic behaviour of a structure depends on:
•The structure
•Non-structural-components (equipment, electric generators, pumps, pipelines, etc)
•Lifelines (electricity, water, gas, communication systems, highways, etc)
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Estimation of building damage
Building classification Structural Damage Damage to Non structural
components Casualties Economic Loss Functionality parameters
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Lifelines
HighwaysRailwaysAir transportationSea water transportationElectricalWater supplySanitary sewer
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Example: Water Supply System
Water supply system
Building (concrete structure)
(30%)
Underground
Pipeline (from the reservoir to the
power house)
Pumping stations
Power House
(100%)
Underground
Pipeline (leaving the power house)
Mechanical equipment
(50%)
Electrical equipment
(20%)
Reservoir
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UBC Campus Case Study
Why modeling UBC campus? UBC campus shares attributes of a small city
47,000 daily transitory occupants 10,000 full time residents well defined residential, recreational and business areas own utility providers
Information accessibility Objective of the Campus Case:
Earthquake scenarios developed to analyze consequences for infrastructures and people.
Collect UBC’s infrastructure information in a GIS feature Seismic Risk Assessment of UBC campus is just a part of the
project
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UBC Campus Results
Approximately 400 buildings on UBC Campus were assessed
Building inventory data from three sources: 1995 Assessment Records Office Sidewalk survey
Damage Assessed for MMI VIII, IX and X
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What are the most important lifelines at UBC campus?
Power pumping (water, steam, oil), air conditioning,
heaters, refrigeration systems, telephone, internet, media, light, information systems, gas, oil
Water (drinking, sewer, storm)
Transportation Services + supplies
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Underground Water Pipelines
•Main 24 km
•Sec 45 km
For a MMI = VIII,
0.69 breaks / km
Main, 17 breaks
Sec, 31 breaks
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Ongoing Tasks
Building Assessment Non Structural Components Assessment Casualties Assessment Hazard Assessment Ambient Vibration Tests on “key” buildings Microtremor test of “UBC site” to determine
site characteristics Non structural vibration tests
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Ongoing tasks
Lifeline Assessment A survey of important lifelines within UBC campus
Pipelines (water, gas, sewer, etc) Transportation (highways, roadways, etc) Services (health facilities, telecommunications,
commerce, etc) Account for the different problems that affect the seismic
behaviour of lifelines (soil, interaction, standards, age, etc)
Important lifelines outside UBC campus that will affect functionality
Vibration tests of existing infrastructure
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Conclusions
The research is ongoing, therefore some of the results shown in this presentation are preliminary and subject to further change
Vibration test will help to confirm the damage relationships and seismic behaviour
JIIRP is a very important study which will help us prepare for and understand disaster scenarios in a holistic way