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1
Small States’ Defence Options after the Cold
War
Jean-Marc Rickli 6 March 2009
University of Iceland
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Structure of the presentation
1. Small states’ security dilemma2. Changes in the strategic environment in
Europe3. Small states’ grand strategy options4. Small states’ military options5. Conclusions
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1.1 Definition of a small state
State that has a deficit of power due to its weak ability to mobilize ressources which could be material, relational or
normative
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1.3 Cold War
Alliance• Bandwagoning or
balancing• Deterrence provided by
great power
• Lost of strategic autonomy
• Entrapment
Neutrality• Strategic sovereignty• Deterrence provided by
extensive territorial defence preparations
• Strategic abandonment
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2.1 Changes in the strategic environment in Europe
1) Unipolarity
2) Shift from threats based to risks based environment
3) Institutionalisation of security
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2.2 Changes in the strategic environment in Europe
1) Increased incentive for bandwagoning
2) Selectivity in the use of force
3) Standardisation of security
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2.3 Obsolescence of defensive strategies
• Disappearence of the strategic advantage provided by territorial defence preparations
• Overburden of costs
• Maintenance of autonomy is counterproductive
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2.4 Strategic orientations according to the nature of strategic challenges
Autonomy Influence
ThreatsLinked to territorial
security
Neutrality Alliances
RisksLinked to functional
securityCounterproductive Institutionalisation
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2.5 Post-Cold security paradox for small states
Formal strategic options Strategic room of manoeuvre
Cold War Post-Cold War
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3.3 Small states’ grand strategic options
• Technical expertise
• Honest broker
• Norms setter
• Institutional engineering
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4.1 Change of strategic paradigm Cold War Contemporary
environmentNational security strategy
Collective or autonomous defence
Prevention/Protection
Doctrines
Strategic level
Dissuasion/Deterrence
Stabilisation/Coercion
Operational level
Territorial Defence ProjectionNiche
Theatre of operations
National territory Out of area / National territory
Strategic Culture Reactive Pro-active
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4.2 Small states’ defence options
Homeland Defence
Low strategic ambitions
High strategic ambitions
Strategic levelPrevention/Protection
Stabilisation/Reconstruction
Coercion/ Enforcement
Operational level
Territorial protectionSubsidiary assistance
Police missionsIntelligence
Niche:Logistic
TransportMedical units
CommunicationCIMIC
Niche:Special
operations Counter-terrorism
Framework nation
Armed forces structure
Conscription and professional
Division of labour bw conscripts and prof
Interoperability
ProfessionalModularity
Network centric
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4.3 Small states’ defence options
Homeland Defence
Low strategic ambitions
High strategic ambitions
Strategic levelPrevention/Protection
Stabilisation/Reconstruction
Coercion/ Enforcement
Operational level
Territorial protectionSubsidiary assistance
Police missionsIntelligence
Niche:Logistic
TransportMedical units
CommunicationCIMIC
Niche:Special
operations Counter-terrorism
Framework nation
Armed forces structure
Conscription and professional
Division of labour bw conscripts and prof
Interoperability
ProfessionalModularity
Network centric
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4.4 Small states’ defence options
Homeland Defence
Low strategic ambitions
High strategic ambitions
Strategic levelPrevention/Protection
Stabilisation/Reconstruction
Coercion/ Enforcement
Operational level
Territorial protectionSubsidiary assistance
Police missionsIntelligence
Niche:Logistic
TransportMedical units
CommunicationCIMIC
Niche:Special
operations Counter-terrorism
Framework nation
Armed forces structure
Conscription and professional
Division of labour bw conscripts and prof
Interoperability
ProfessionalModularity
Network centric
18
4.5 Small states’ defence options
Homeland Defence
Low strategic ambitions
High strategic ambitions
Strategic levelPrevention/Protection
Stabilisation/Reconstruction
Coercion/ Enforcement
Operational level
Territorial protectionSubsidiary assistance
Police missionsIntelligence
Niche:Logistic
TransportMedical units
CommunicationCIMIC
Niche:Special
operations Counter-terrorism
Framework nation
Armed forces structure
Conscription and professional
Division of labour bw conscripts and prof
Interoperability
ProfessionalModularity
Network centric
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4.6 Niche strategies
Advantages Risks
Political •Strategic influence•Co-decision power
•International pressures
Strategic ●Extendedprotection
•Casualties•Public opinion
Operational •Know-how•Reduction of mission creep risks
•Intensive use of capabilities
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4.7 Framework nation strategy
Advantages Risks
Political •Strategic responsibility•Decision power
•International pressures/responsibilities
Strategic ●Extended protection●Autonomy
•Casualties•Public opinion reactions
Operational •Extended know-how•Reduction of mission creep risks
•Intensive use of capabilities•Exclusive use of ressources