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预警信息发布1Socio-Economic Benefits
Assessment on Weather Service in China
Dr. LV Minghui
Meeting of The WMO Forum: Social and Economic
Applications and Benefits of Weather, Climate and
Water Services, 8-11 April 2013
China Meteorological
Administration
Public Meteorological Service
centre
CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Benefits of public weather
service
3. Benefits of weather service
for specific sectors
4. Weather service benefit in
disaster prevention and
mitigation
5. Conclusion
1 Introduction
Various Meteorological Disasters in China 34 million hectares farming land are hit by meteorological disasters per year.
600 million people afflicted by severe meteorological disasters, including
droughts, rainstorms, floods and tropical cyclones.
Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services in
China the average annual death toll of meteorological disasters has decreased from
about 4,500 people in the 1990’s to about 2,500 people in the 21st century.
the economic losses caused by meteorological disasters to GDP has decreased
from 3%~6% in the 1980’s to today’s 1%~3%.
2 Benefits of public weather service ( 1)
The public can access public weather service by various media and communication
meas. China has established modern platforms for information release.
Example:The public’s expectation of public weather service during 2008 Beijing Olympics
was fully satisfied.
China Meteorological Administration enjoyed the best popularity of 27 state-
level government bodies under the survey of public image conducted by Annual
Report on Science Communication of China (2010-2011) and ranked second in
terms of reputation, which also showed to some extent the public’s positive
opinion on meteorological department and its work.
2 Benefits of public weather service ( 2)
Benefits assessment of public weather service
Survey data of Satisfaction of Public Weather Service in China from 2009 to 2012
Year Number of
Samples
Number of
Samples in Cities
Number of Samples
in Countryside
Modes of
Investigation
2009 45,800 30,500 15,300 Face-to-face
2010 28,700 18,200 10,500 Telephone
2011 49,700 32,453 17,247 Telephone
2012 40,699 25,441 15,258 Telephone
Total 164,899 106,594 58,305 —
87.5
83.5
85.786.2
85.6
82.3
83.984.5
89.1
84.6
87.387.8
2009 2010 2011 2012
系列1系列2系列3
Satisfaction of PWS
Satisfaction of PWS in Urban areas
Satisfaction of PWS in Rural areas
year
82.8 82.6
79.7 79.9
Forecast Accuracy
Meteological Element Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
Severe Weather Forecast
Accuracy Evaluation of PWS, 2009
83.584.4
85.6
77.4
Satisfaction of PWS
Service Information
Information Release
Meteorological Knowledge
Popularization
Satisfaction Evaluation of PWS, 2010
2 Benefits of public weather service ( 3)
Based on the above surveys, meteorological department shall enhance the
forecast accuracy and the construction of information release channels, launch
public projects for meteorological knowledge popularization, and improve
weather service products and the service quality, so as to provide better weather
service for the public.76.1
76.3
76.6
2010 2011 2012 year
Satisfaction Evaluation of Weather Forecast Accuracy, 2010-2012
61.5
20.1
14.4
4.0
61.3
19.4 15.6
3.7
Accuracy Practicality Timeliness Convenience
2011 2012 (Unit:percent)
3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors ( 1)
The specialized weather service well demonstrates meteorology’s value and
significance as a production factor.
The most common method adopted for benefits evaluation of specialized weather
service is Delphi method.
Year Industries Number of Samples Contribution rate
Effective
Value(hundred
million)
2009 Superhighway 413 0.8% 22~28
2010 Tourism 316 0.59% 74.34
2010 Electric Power 400 0.22% 73.56
2011 Wind Power 567 1.85% 8.85
2011 Expressway 460 1.09% 61
Total 5 2156 0.22~1.85% 239.75~245.75
3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors ( 2)
Benefits assessment on weather service in road transportation.
No. Provinces
(municipalities)
Contribution of weather
service on provincial
highways (%)
Economic returns of weather service
on highways (¥100 million)
1 Shandong 1.01 0.0727
2 Shanghai 0.98 0.3430
3 Zhejiang 0.88 Not supplied
4 Fujian 0.87 0.5224
5 Guangdong 0.86 1.46
6 Shanxi 0.83 0.4835
7 Jiangsu 0.82 6.02
(the ratio of input to output is 1:8.18)
8 Chongqing 0.6 2.7576
9 Liaoning 0.58 0.796
10 Hubei 0.57 0.6229
Economic Returns of Weather Service in Superhighway in 10 Provinces, 2009
Distribution of main superhighway-sensitive weather elements in seven provinces
3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors ( 3)
In 2011, for further work assessment project for weather service benefits in
road transportation.
the contribution of weather service in road transportation was 1.09% and the
economic returns at about 6.1 billion yuan.
weather service contributed most in road transportation and operation, with
contributions of 1.14% and 1.13% respectively, followed by emergency aids at
1.11%. Weather service contributed comparatively low in road maintenance and
construction, with the contributions at only 1.07% and 1.02% respectively.1.02%
1.14%1.13%
1.07%
1.11%
construction Transport Management maintenance Emergency Rescue
Contribution ratios of meteorological services on provincial superhighways in 2011.
3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors ( 4)
Benefits assessment on weather service in tourism.
Economic Returns of Weather Service in Tourism in 13 Provinces, 2010
No. Provinces
(municipalities)
Contribution of weather
service in tourism (%)
Economic returns of weather
service in tourism
(¥100 million)
1 Beijing 1.09 26.62
2 Guangxi 0.84 5.87
3 Shandong 0.78 —
4 Yunnan 0.78 6.3
5 Fujian 0.74 8.38
6 Sichuan 0.72 13.62
7 Qinghai 0.59 60.10
8 Anhui 0.53 —
9 Gansu 0.46 0.88
10 Tibet 0.43 0.24
11 Hainan 0.29 0.61
12 Shanghai 0.23 1.81
13 Ningxia 0.20 0.11
Weather phenomena Critical values Valid forecast period (h)
Rain Heavy rain
(25~49.9mm/d) 12~24
Snow Moderate snow
(2.6~4.9mm/d) 12~24
Wind force 6~7 12~24
Lightning & Thunderstorm — 6~12
Road icing — 12~24
Major Sensitive Weather Elements, Critical Values and Valid Forecast Period in Tourist Industry
3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors ( 5)
Benefits assessment on weather service in electric power & wind power sectors.
Economic Returns of Weather Service in Electric Power in 18 Provinces, 2010
No. Provinces
(municipalities)
Contribution of weather
service in electric power
sector (%)
Economic returns of
weather service in electric
power sector (¥100 million)
1 Hunan 0.33 3.96
2 Hubei 0.31 3.34
3 Tianjin 0.29 —
4 Heilongjiang 0.26 —
5 Jiangsu 0.24 5.35
6 Inner Mongolia 0.24 2.84
7 Jiangxi 0.24 —
8 Guizhou 0.22 0.76
9 Liaoning 0.21 4.46
10 Xinjiang 0.21 —
11 Chongqing 0.20 —
12 Shanxi 0.18 0.66
13 Guangdong 0.18 3.36
14 Jilin 0.17 0.61
15 Shanxi 0.17 0.34
16 Zhejiang 0.16 3.20
17 Hebei 0.14 0.37
18 Henan 0.14 —
Average contribution of
weather service 0.22 73.56
Major Sensitive Weather Elements, Critical Values and Valid Forecast Period in Electric Power Sector
Weather phenomena Critical values Valid forecast period (h)
Lightning & Thunderstorm — 6~12
Rain Rainstorm
(50~99.9mm/d) 12~24
Cable icing — 12~24
Snow Heavy snow
(5.0~9.9mm/d) 12~24
Wind force 7~8 12~24
Highest temperature 36~37℃ 24~48
3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors ( 6)
In 2011, for further work assessment project for weather service benefits in
wind power.
According to the assessment, the contribution of weather service in wind power
sector was 1.85%, with the economic returns estimated at 885 million yuan.
The contributions of weather service in distribution of wind-generated electricity,
planning of wind power programs, drought fan maintenance and construction of
wind farms were all higher than 1.85%. Weather service contributed least in the
wind power generation at 1.62%.
Major Sensitive Weather Elements, Critical Values and Valid Forecast Period in Wind Power Sector
Weather phenomena Critical values Valid forecast period (h)
Wind velocity 3m/s (Minimum)
25m/s (Maximum) 12~24
Lightning & Thunderstorm — 0~3
Fan blade icing 10mm 12~24
Lowest temperature -30℃ 12~24
Highest temperature 40℃ 12~24
4 benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation ( 1)
Weather service system for agriculture and meteorological disaster prevention
system in rural areas.
Mechanism: “under government’s guidance, linked up between departments and supported by
all the members of society”.
Example:No.11 severe typhoon named “Haikui” (“Sea Anemone”) struck land in Zhejiang Province
in 2012, leaving 7,001,000 people affected, 1,546,000 people of whom were moved away
from the afflicted areas. Not a single person died .
4 Benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation ( 2)
Benefit assessment on weather monitoring and early warning for geological hazard prevention and control.
Benefit assessment on weather monitoring and early warning for geological hazard prevention and control, 2012
Total Experts from Ministry of
Land and Resources
Experts from Local
Government Primary staff Public
5,111 596 572 695 3,248
88.4
89.2
90.9 90.8
87.3
Total Experts from Ministry of Land and Resources
Experts from Local
Government
Primary staff Public
Degree of Satisfaction in different groups
82.6883.55
91.3
Accuracy Timeliness Coverage Rate
Indexes for weather monitoring and early warning for geological hazard prevention and control
4 Benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation ( 3)
The significant role of weathermen in disaster prevention and mitigation
There are now nearly 500,000 weathermen working in rural areas in China. The network of weather early warning information has been expanded to more counties and villages .
64.4
42.6
13.4
2.8 2.3 0.5
Organize Public
Avoiding Calamity
Take Defensive Measures
Waiting for Government to Deal With
Others Donot Know How to Defend
Ignore
Measures taken by weathermen in disasters, 2011
55.0%30.0%
11.0%
1.0% 4.0%
Very Concerned About
More Concerned About
General
Little Concerned About
Do Not Care
Attention to meteorological disasters from weathermen
5 Conclusion
Benefit assessment on weather service is an interdisciplinary issue.
Therefore, more efforts shall be put into theoretical and methodological
studies, with new assessment modes introduced, assessment content
enriched and practicability of assessment enhanced, to improve benefit
assessment on weather service.
Through the assessment projects we have conducted for the benefit of
weather service, we see both visible economic returns and other invisible
benefits, such as social and humanitarian benefits and even positive influence
on people’s psyche.
Much of what we’ve done is still in an initial stage of qualitative assessment,
which cannot fully demonstrate all the benefits weather service can generate.
As weather service gets improving, it will bring more benefits for social and
economic development.
Thank you!