1. Some preliminaries

2. Global state of affairs

3. Post-2015 Agenda

1. Poverty & hunger

2. Primary education

3. Gender equality

4. Child mortality

5. Maternal health

6. HIV/Aids, malaria & TB

7. Environment

8. Global partnership

1. Poverty & hunger -50%

2. Primary education full

3. Gender equality full

4. Child mortality -66%

5. Maternal health -75%

6. HIV/Aids, malaria & TB

7. Environment -50%

8. Global partnership

103

132

166

223

79705948

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

GlobalU5MR

Global NER

2015

100

34

1. MDGs are collective targets, based on global trends of 1970s & 1980s

2. They are hardest to achieve for countries with low initial HD

3. They represent ends, not means.

Good servants, bad masters

Global state of affairs

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Underweight Primary SchoolEnrolment

% Girls Child Mortality Measles Deliveries

1990 2010

All developing countries

-11

+10 +10

-3.5

+10

+13

Gender Parity

Child malnutrition

Child mortality

Primary education

Maternal health

Achieved To be Achieved

1990 2010 2015

Global MDG scorecard (as of 2010)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Underweight Primary SchoolEnrolment

% Girls Child Mortality Measles Deliveries

1990 2010

Sub-Saharan Africa

-7 (-11)

+23 (+10)

+9 (+10)

-5.3 (-3.5)

+3 (+10)

+19 (+13)

“We seek to confirm, not to question, our ideas”

“African poverty and stagnation is the greatest

tragedy of our time.” Blair Commission for Africa, 2005

Don't Believe Everything You ThinkThe 6 Basic Mistakes We Make in Thinking

Thomas Kida, 2006

“They use statistics as drunken men use lamp posts – for support rather

than for illumination.”

“The world has met some important targets–ahead of the deadline.”

UN, 2012

Andrew Lang Scottish poet

1844-1912

MDG 8: Global Partnership

1. Debt relief

2. ODA

3. Trade policy & patent laws

Passing grade

Retake exam

Official development assistance

2002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 20120.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

MDG 8: Global Partnership

1. Debt relief

2. ODA

3. Trade policy & patent laws

Passing grade

Retake exam

Failing grade

MDG 8: Global Partnership

1. Debt relief

2. ODA

3. Trade policy & patent laws

Passing grade

Retake exam

Failing grade

www.cartoonmovement.com

Progress has continued

But it is slowing down

Much of it bypasses the poor; inequalities

Storyline since 1990

Is it inequality, stupid?

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Inequality in OECD countriesGini coefficients for late 1980s to late 2000s

Up: 17 countries

Same: 3 countries

Down: 2 countries

• High inequalities have a price – slower growth, more instability, less efficiency.

• They hurt everyone, also those at top.

• The way the economic pie is cut has a bearing on its size.

• What matters is not only how affluent a country is but also how equal it is.

There is such thing as ‘too much inequality’.

• Adam Smith/Karl Marx

What did philosophers say about inequality?

Does the free market corrode moral character?

1. Categorical ‘No’• Rick Santorum – No. • Qinglian He – No.• Jadish Bagwati – To the contrary.• Ayaan Hirsi Ali – Not at all.

2. Nuanced ‘No’• Tyler Cowen – No, on balance.• Michael Novak – No! And, well, yes.• Garry Kasparov – Yes, but…• Bernard-Henri Levy – Certainly. Or does it?

3. ‘It depends’• John Gray – It depends.• John Bogle – It all depends.

4. ‘Yes’• Kay Hymowitz – Yes, too often.• Michael Walzer – Of course it does.• Robert Reich – We’d better not know.

www.templeton.org/markets

“To feel for others and little for ourselves, to restrain our selfishness and exercise our

benevolent affections, constitute the perfection of

human nature.”

Adam Smith 1723-90

• Adam Smith/Karl Marx • John Rawls/Ayn Rand

What did philosophers say about inequality?

MDGs = Minding Development Gaps

Post-2015 Agenda

¾ see the MDGs as a ‘good thing’

nearly 90% want a similar agenda post-2015

CAFOD survey, 104 people from civil society organisations in 26 countries

UNECA survey, 112 representatives from government, civil society and academia in 32 African countries.

“Overwhelming majority agrees: • MDGs are important

priorities for our countries• They should feature in the

post-2015 agenda.”

Why had the MDGs such staying power?

1. Clear

2. Concise

3. Measurable

Potential pitfalls1. Overload

2. Prescription

3. Donorship

How to select new targets?

1. Does it concern an end or a means?

2. Is concept clear?

3. Can it be objectively measured?

Points for discussion1. Universality

2. Sustainability

3. Inequality

4. Human rights

5. Global vs. national targets

“A designer knows he has reached perfection, not when

there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing left to

take away.”Antoine de Saint-Exupéry