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Stats are Sexy!Metrics and Testing

That’s HOT!

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“The only truth is what actually happens.”

The number of people who did the thing you wanted them to do. Give.

Act. Volunteer. Come to Get Together.

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The data

Oh NO! Let’s take a closer look...

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What are all these metrics?

• It’s easy to get lost in the result metrics, some common calculations are:• Delivery rate• Open rate• Click-through rate• Conversion rate• Tell-a-Friend rates

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Delivery

Delivered Emails, not yet opened

Delivery Rate =

Number of emails Received/

Total emails Sent

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Opening the email

Opened email

Number of emailed members who opened at least 1 email/

Total Emails Sent

Open Rate =

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Beware, Preview Pane Affects Open Rates

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Opened email

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Click-ThroughClick-through Rate =

Number of emailed members who clicked on at least one link/

Total Emails Sent

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The ResponseResponse Rate =

Number of emailed members who participated in the campaign /

Total emails Sent

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Tell-a-Friend Usage

Number of emailed members who told at least 1 friend/

Total emails Sent

Tell-a-Friend Usage Rate =

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Tell-a-friend Recruitment

Number of Friends who joined a center/

Total Emails Sent

Tell-a-Friend Recruitment Rate =

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Which Rates are the most important?

• Conversion Rates are the best measure of a campaign’s immediate success

• Click-through rates can be good indicators of how members are interacting with your messages

• Open rates are deceiving for short term data, but if measured over several years can become interesting. They also are good for normalizing other data.

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So, what can you do with all these statistics?

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This is a numbers game …… do the math

• If you want 10 people to TAKE ACTION, then:• (at least) 20 people need to click to the

advocacy page• (at least) 30 people need to open your e-mail

message• (at least) 100 people need to receive your

message

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This is a numbers game …… do the math

• If you want 10 people to DONATE, then:• (at least) 50 people need to click to the

donation page• (at least) 250 people need to open your e-

mail message• (at least) 1,000 people need to receive your

message• Yes, your results may vary…dramatically!

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It all starts with the list• Good direct marketing is all about the

list• It starts with the list• It ends with the list• It is all about the list

• But building a good list requires you to be good at everything else: your work, copy, layout, timing, etc.

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Typical response rates• Nothing is typical, really

• Big lists usually = lower response…

• …and smaller lists usually ROCK

• But if you make us…

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Making the most of the numbers to get the most out of your online program…

Segmenting and Testing

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Segmenting is…

…dividing your e-mail list when running campaigns to learn more, personalize, and generate higher results.

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Segmentation example• Donors

• People on direct mail list with e-mail

• E-mail subscribers

Recipients

Amt of Gifts

# of Gifts

Avg gift

Resp. rate

3,500 $2,290 40 $57.75 1.13%

Recipients

Amt of Gifts

# of Gifts

Avg gift

Resp. rate

7,250 $3,385 92 $36.79 1.26%

Recipients

Amt of Gifts

# of Gifts

Avg gift

Resp. rate

7,000 $775 26 $29.81 0.37%

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Before segmenting…

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After segmenting…

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Other segmentation strategies

• Giving level • Campaign-based

• Donors who have taken action• Donors who have not taken action• Non-donors who have taken action• Non-donor, non-action-takers

• Recency• Source• One-time and lapsed online donors• Active and inactive non-donors

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Testing …

…Once you’ve determined how best to segment your particular list, you can begin to test what works within each of these segments.

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Testing• Open rates

• Time of day, day of week• Subject lines

• Straightforward subject lines vs suggestive ones. • Your action will help a child eat today

vs.• How can you help the orphans?

• To Mention The Ask Or Not? • Looking ahead, more animals need your help in 2007

vs.• Last chance for your tax-deductible gift to animals

• Subject lines that in different ways ask for a renewal of commitment.

• Renew your commitment for 2007vs.

• Your membership is expiringvs.

• Renew today—and save even more puppies

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Testing, continued• Click through rates

• Premiums• Offer • Signer• Short or long copy• Link placement

• Conversion rates • Short vs. long page• Images and insets• First things first! • Giving levels

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How to create a good test...

• Pick one variable you want to test• Keep everything else the same• Randomly 50/50 split the population of

the campaign• Compare the results from each test

group using a “significance calculator”• “Significant” results mean the results

can be repeated

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Testing Do’s and Don’t’s

• DO• Ask a question and design a test to answer it• Select a RANDOM sample of your list• Test ONE thing at a time• Keep everything the same except for the thing

you are testing• Check for statistical significance• Make sure your list segments are large

enough to produce meaningful results• Understand that some test results are only

applicable to the message you were testing

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Testing Do’s and Don’t’s

• DON’T• Assume that test results apply across lists

or list segments• Bite off more than you can chew• Read too much into the numbers• Assume that every test will yield

statistically significant results

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Testing Gone WrongVersion Description

Messages Sent Open Rate

Click Through Rate

Unique Signatures

Response Rate (unique sigs)

Better Than Control?

Statistical Significance?

CONTROL Regular Email 21,059 20.90% 8.40% 1,395 6.62%

Test 1

Masked URLs – used hyperlinked text instead of spelled out URL 20,953 22.70% 10.60% 1,645 7.85% Y Y

Test 2

I n Line URLs –URLs are in the line of text, not separate paragraphs 20,377 21.30% 8.30% 1,318 6.47% N N

Test 3

Longer subject line – Everything is same as control, except the subject line is a longer version 20,419 20.30% 7.90% 1,262 6.18% N N

Test 4

Header Images- Everything is same as control, except header image does not have a picture of candidate 20,784 21.50% 8.30% 1,391 6.69% Y N

Test 5No Header Image – header image is removed 21,734 22.50% 8.80% 1,524 7.01% Y N

Test 6

Large Button - take action button in the upper right hand corner is larger 21,014 21.10% 8.50% 1,431 6.81% Y N

Test 7

Move On Style- email is stripped of header image and all graphics 21,591 22.60% 10.70% 1,804 8.36% Y Y

Test 8Short Email – middle paragraphs are removed 21,146 23.90% 8.90% 1,483 7.01% Y N

Test 9

Greeting - lead in to the email says “Dear Friend” instead of Dear First Name 20,702 21.30% 7.90% 1,328 6.41% N N

Total 209,779 21.82% 8.84% 14,581 6.95% Y N

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What Happened?

• Too many variables

• Tried to answer every question at once

• The result:• Hours of work to set up 10 segments• Data was messy and difficult to decipher• We didn’t learn much about our list

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What We Should Have Done

• Picked one variable

• Had a clear question to answer

• Split the list in half or thirds instead of in tenths

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And the winner is….

• Subject Line Test• What metric should be used to evaluate a subject

line?• Which is the winner?

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And the winner is…

• Open Rate• Two-way tie

Message Emails SentOpen Rate

Click Through Rate Actions

Response Rate

Bush's Budget: Guns Not Butter 1,000 28.50% 13.00% 53 5.30%

What's At Stake 999 31.90% 15.50% 52 5.20%

Action Alert: Defend 100 Hours Agenda 999 27.70% 14.80% 49 4.90%

Action Alert: Organize agaist Bush's budget 1,000 31.90% 18.20% 51 5.10%

Organize Against Bush's Budget 1,000 28.80% 16.70% 54 5.40%

Total 4,998 30.60% 16.90% 259 5.18%

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And the winner is…

• Link placement test• Which is the most important metric?• Which segment is the winner?

TestMessages Sent Open Rate

Click Through Rate

Unique Signatures

Response Rate

Below the first paragraph 20,419 22.70% 10.60% 1,645 8.06%

Below the third paragraph 20,567 21.30% 8.30% 1,318 6.41%Below the fifth paragraph 20,489 20.30% 7.90% 1,262 6.18%

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And the winner is…

• Click Through Rate

• Below the first paragraph

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And the winner is….

• Short Email vs. Long Email• What metric(s) should you look at?• Which message is the winner?

Messages Sent Open Rate

Click Through Rate

Response Rate

Long Email 95,917 20.90% 7.50% 5.62%Short Email 96,953 21.10% 7.30% 5.48%

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And the winner is…

• Click through rates and response rates• Trick question – the results are statistically

insignificant.• You can’t always eyeball test results – be sure to

test for statistical significance

Messages Sent Open Rate

Click Through Rate

Response Rate

Long Email 95,917 20.90% 7.50% 5.62%Short Email 96,953 21.10% 7.30% 5.48%

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And the winner is…

• Which campaign is more successful? Why?

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CampaignMessages Received

Open Rate

Click Through Rate Donations

Amount Donated

Average Gift

Response Rate

Issue #1 63,101 42.06% 0.49% 102 $6,578 $64.49 0.16%Issue #2 62,653 41.48% 0.62% 125 $4,960 $39.68 0.20%

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And the winner is…

• Arctic campaign most likely to raise money (fewer donors, but higher average gift)

• Public lands campaign most likely to get engage donors (more donors, lower average gift).• Depending on the goals of the campaign

(raise a lot of $, or get more people to give), both are a success.

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And the winner is….

• From line testing – by list segment

• What should the organization do moving forward?

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From "ORGANIZATION"

From "Kathy, ORGANIZATION Difference

Super Activists (10+ actions) 41.20% 42.10% 0.90%Activists (1-10 actions) 35.40% 38.10% 2.70%Inactive (0 actions) 10.10% 9.40% -0.70%Newbies (less than 2 months on the list) 25.40% 26.40% 1.00%Donors 40.70% 43.50% 2.80%

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And the winner is…

• Even thought the inactive segment had a lower open rate with the from line “Kathy, Organization” all of the other segments saw improved open rates.

• You could segment out the inactive folks and continue to send them messages with the old from line, but it’s probably not worth the effort.

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Digging Deeper:5 Questions you could ask

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Question 1

Which group of people on my email list is the most likely to take action, tell a friend, or donate?

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Question 1, Sample answerSource 1 Source 2

Members in Group 2,403 4,014

Activists* 59.84% 29.45%

Donors 5.45% 2.72%

TAF 35.41% 9.12%

Super activists 4.99% 2.99%

Members who opened an email in 2005

57.26% 55.23%

Members who clicked 70.41% 54.53%

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Answering Question 1

• Two words: Source Codes• Suffix on imports or on any link someone may

click to come on your list, starts with ‘?source=’• Advocacy campaign (?source=advo1)• Viral Flash game or movie (?source=funny_movie)• Banner ads (?source=yahoo_banner)• Paid source (?source=care2)• Donation campaign (?source=moneybags)

• Source codes are attached to a member so you always know where they originally came from

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Answering Question 1

• Each cell in the table is a member select

• Query members who have the source code you want AND have donated, taken action, etc.

• The results can help you compare how valuable names from various sources are to your organization

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Question 2

How do I know how fast my list is growing?

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Answering Question 2

• List Growth Rate: # new sign-ups/# of deliverable addresses• Shows % list growth over a period of time (month,

3-months, year)

• List Hurdle Rate: # removals/# of deliverable addresses• Shows % of list that leaves over a period of time• # removals tells you how many new names you

need to get before you achieve net growth

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Question 3

How come my advocacy response rates are so low?

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Question 4

How do I find out if I’m sending too much email?

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Question 5

How valuable is an email address?