1. The Limits to Growth. Report of the Club of Rome

• The Club of Rome brings together scientists, economists, businessmen, international officials and heads of state from all five continents.Its mission is to seek the promotion of stable economic growth and sustainable development of mankind.

2. Projections and possible consequences according to the IPCC scenarios

• The IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• The IPCC issued a report in 2000 to establish different scenarios that will help us understand the changes or consequences of global warming according to various models of development (to know the predictions of the future)

Four models were established depending on the economic, demographic and cultural will of people. These models were named A1, A2, B1, B2.

Once we know the differentscenarios we can make predictionsfor:  ·Greenhouse gases and aerosols.  ·Temperature.  ·Rainfall.  ·Extreme events.  ·Thermohaline circulation.  ·The snow and ice and seascape.  ·The sea level.

3. Forecast exchange following the current development model The sea level.

• Most of the information given is not based on current data because then it would be different.

• Continuing emissions of greenhouse gases at current rates or faster warming will intensify and will give many changes in the global climate system during the twenty-first century

• During the twenty-first century maximum heat on Earth is expected

• Permafrost will melt causing havoc on vegetation and animals that live there

• The report says it is likely that the frequency of extreme values and the heat waves or intense precipitation will increase.

In the future tropical stoms will posibly be more intense, with maximum higher wind speed and more frequent and abundant rains.

The standards of wind, rain and temperature are going to change.

• The man has made that global warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries.

4. Estimated changes in the Canary Islands

• In the Canary Islands the trend towards desertification is intensely expressed.Tourism will be affected.In the Canaries pollution is caused mainly by transport.

• That’s why the islands are experiencing climate changes such as the one we have lived these days (February 2010).The worst affected islands were Tenerife and Gran Canaria.

5. Forecasts of changes for the IPCC scenarios

1. About the projections provided in temperature and sea level by the end of the century, the Fourth IPCC Report states:Making an average of temperatures according to stage the temperature will increase the interval between 1.55 and 4.15 degrees.

2. Forecasts for precipitation is very likely to increase at higher latitudes quantitatively, decreasing in the subtropics

6. Possible consequences / impacts of global changes planned

• Impacts on ecosystems:Increasing temperatures will extinguish some species, will change the function and structure of ecosystems and the natural ecosystem synchrony.

• Impacts on the Water: We must consider the impacts on the water are important for all sectors and regions and drought will increase in many places.

• Coastal impacts 

• Impacts on industry, settlements and society

•  Impacts on food: Globally, food production potential would increase if the local average temperature increases of 1 and 3 º C.

• Impacts on health: • Malnutrition and the number of

deaths, illnesses and injuries from extreme weather events will grow.

• The increased burden of diarrheal disease grow the frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to increased concentrations of ozone in low urban areas.

• Climate change will also alter the spatial distribution of certain .infectious diseases

7. Systems, sectors and regions especially affected

• Some systems, sectors and regions are probably more affected than others by climate change according to the IPCC

7.1. Systems and sectors:1. Terrestrial Ecosystems2. Coastal Ecosystems3. Marine Ecosystems4. Water resources5. Agriculture6. Coastal systems7. Human Health

7.2. Regions:1. The Arctic2. Africa3. Small islands

• Roberto Díaz

• Gorka Castaño

• Daniel Neira