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Tracking Tennessee’s Economic Recovery

David A. Penn, Director and Associate ProfessorBusiness and Economic Research CenterJennings A. Jones College of BusinessMiddle Tennessee State University 615-904-8571 www.mtsu.edu/berc

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Purpose of the project

BERC will develop and maintain web-based economic indicators for Tennessee.

Provide the public a one-stop site to learn about the current condition of Tennessee’s economy.

Information will be provided at various levels of detail.

Goal: provide a current, updatable method for tracking Tennessee’s economic recovery.

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Tasks for this project

1. Determine information content for the website – types of indicators, geography, brief analysis.

2. Write computer programs and website code – automate data updates, imbed real time graphs.

3. Designate target dates for updates.

4. Maintain and update for 12 months.

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Conceptual Layout

State Summary

Metro Area Summary

State Detail Metro Area Detail

Summary Level (text, summary tables, charts)

Detailed Level (detailed tables and downloadable data)

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Tennessee Recovery Website

Provide information in a range of formatsBrief analyses of current conditionsTabular summary dataDetailed downloads for more intensive

usersProvide comprehensive information

State and metropolitan areasAll the major current indicators

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Geography Tennessee Metropolitan areas

Chattanooga Clarksville Cleveland Jackson Johnson City Kingsport-Bristol Knoxville Memphis Morristown Nashville

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Available indicators

Indicator State Metro areas

Labor force X X

Total employment X X

Unemployment X X

Unemployment insurance claims XNonfarm employment by industry X XPermit-authorized housing construction X X

Taxable sales X XMortgages and real estate transactions X XHome sales partial

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Website design

Criteria: Easy to use and find information. Layout that emulates the TACIR website. Operated on MTSU server, but appears to be part

of TACIR website.

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Need

Data users and the general public are hungry for easily-accessible comprehensive information about the Tennessee economy.

Currently the data are fragmented and difficult to access.

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Potential future projects

Provide data regarding long-term growthPopulationGross regional product Income and earnings by industryWages and employment by industry

Data are less current (at least one year behind) but offer much more detail.

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Data now on the BERC website

Nonfarm employment by industry for Nashville and Tennessee

Initial unemployment insurance claims for Tennessee

Labor force data for Nashville and Tennessee Permit-authorized housing construction Labor force data by county Nashville MSA economic indicators

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance

Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Tennessee, 2008-2009 (weekly, seasonally adjusted)

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

2009

Weekly initial claims

Four week moving average

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance

Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Tennessee, 2000-2009 (weekly, seasonally adjusted)

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Weekly initial claims

Four week moving average

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Nashville MSA Indicators

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Labor force indicators

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Unemployment rates by county

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About the Business and Economic Research Center

PublicationsOutreach and InformationResearch

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BERC publications

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Business and Economic Research Center

Publications (www.mtsu.edu/berc) Tennessee’s Business

Three times annually In-depth discussion of one important issue

Midstate Economic Indicators Analysis of current economic conditions in middle

Tennessee Four times annually

Global Commerce The source of information and analysis regarding

Tennessee and international trade. Four times annually

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Business and Economic Research Center

Outreach and Information Speeches and presentations

Real estate investors group Nashville Concrete management group Nashville MTSU outlook conference Sept. 24

Quotes in media (newspapers, television, radio) Website data

Labor force and unemployment database Weekly unemployment insurance claims

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BERC Media Quotes

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Current Projects at the BERC

Estimating costs of providing health care services to Native American tribes. Sponsor: United Southern and Eastern Tribes, Indian Health Service.

Estimating underemployment in south central Tennessee. Workforce Solutions.

Tennessee housing market reports. Tennessee Housing Development Agency.

Estimating the impact of the heath care industry in the Nashville area. Nashville Health Care Council.

Estimating potential benefits of a port in northwest Tennessee. Northwest Tennessee Port Authority.

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Current Projects at the BERC

Estimating the economic impact of a prison industry. TRICOR.

Analysis for the Rutherford County comprehensive plan. Parsons Brinkerhoff.

Tracking Tennessee’s economy. TACIR.

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Tracking Tennessee’s Economic Recovery

David A. Penn, Director and Associate ProfessorBusiness and Economic Research CenterJennings A. Jones College of BusinessMiddle Tennessee State University 615-904-8571 www.mtsu.edu/berc