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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report Climate Change 2013:
The Physical Science Basis:
SPM
Source: Jose A. Marengo
RE, Chapter 2 WGI
Presented by:
ROSALINA G. DE GUZMAN
Chief, Climate Data Section
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Outline of Presentation
• Observed Changes in the Climate • What’s Causing these Changes? • Future Projections of Climate Change • Main Conclusions and Key Uncertainties
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What is the IPCC? • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Sponsored by: – United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)
– World Meteorological Organization (WM))
• Chartered to “Assess” the state of scientific knowledge of Climate Change and produce periodic (every 5 years) a report of their findings.
• 5th Assessment was released September 2013(4Th was on 2007)
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Part 1: Observed changes to
the climate
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Atmospheric CO2 levels are unprecedented for
800,000 yrs
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have
– increased by about 40% since 1750, due to human activity
– exceed values recorded in ice cores for the last 800,000 years
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Most global land areas analysed have experienced significant warming including of
both maximum and minimum temperature extremes since 1950.
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(IP
CC
20
13
, F
ig.
SP
M.1
a)
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2000s: warmest decade on record
• Last 3 decades warmest
in instrumental record.
• From palaeoclimate
records, in the NH, last
30 years likely (66-100%)
the warmest period of the
past 1400 years.
• Very likely (90-100%) that number of warm days has increased and cold nights decreased globally
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•Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the
energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m)
warmed from 1971 to 2010, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971.
10
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Annual mean Arctic summer sea ice
start of satellite
data
Annual mean Arctic summer sea ice extent decreased
very likely with a rate of 3.5-4.1% per decade in 1979 – 2012
decrease was most rapid in summer (high confidence).
Data normalized to the satellite measured sea ice extent in 1979
(IP
CC
20
13
, F
ig.
SP
M.2
)
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Part 2: What are the causes of
the changing climate?
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Radiative Forcing
• Definition: A change in the net radiation at the top of the
atmosphere due to some external factor.
Net radiation = Incoming - Outgoing
Positive net radiation
Incoming > Outgoing
Negative net radiation
Outgoing > Incoming
Positive forcing warming
Negative forcing cooling
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Changes to Earth’s Energy Budget
The AR5 estimate for 2011 is 44% greater than the AR4 estimate for 2005 because of:
– Increased forcing from greenhouse gases
– Revised estimate of aerosol forcing
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Attribution of Radiative Forcing to Emissions
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Part 3: Future projections
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Scenarios for future change
• AR4: Special Report on Emission
Scenarios (SRES) are four major
families of GHG emission scenarios
each making different assumptions
for future greenhouse gas pollution,
land-use and other driving forces
• AR5: Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs) are four GHG
concentration trajectories, each
describing a different future value of
radiative forcing in 2100. RCPs aim to
provide a range of climate model
responses, rather than being derived
from socio-economic storylines.
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What is RCP? • Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not
emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5).[1]
• The pathways are used for climate modeling and research. They describe four possible climate
futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are
emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5, are named
after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial
values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively).[2]
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• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 Low-medium emissions increasing scenario • Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5
Fossil fuel intensive scenario
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
Global Climate Simulation Scenarios
RCP:20052100
Source: http://stratus.astr.ucl.ac.be/textbook/pdf/Chapter_6.pdf
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Projections of global average warming
By the end of the century, the increase of global mean surface temperature above 1986-2005 levels is
projected to be:
0.3-1.7˚C for RCP2.6
2.6-4.8˚C for RCP8.5
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Warming will not be the same everywhere
• There is very high confidence that long-term warming will be larger over land than over the
ocean, and that the Arctic region will warm most rapidly.
• Ocean warming will continue for centuries, even if greenhouse gas emissions are
decreased.
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There will be large geographical variations in precipitation
change
• For the next few decades, changes in regional-scale precipitation will be
strongly influenced by natural variability.
• Contrast between wet and dry regions and seasons will increase over most of
the globe, though there are regional exceptions.
• Monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify, along with a lengthening of the
monsoon season. • Extreme precipitation events over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will
be very likely to become more intense and more frequent by the end of this century. • Monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify, along with a lengthening of the monsoon season.
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(IP
CC
20
13
, F
ig.
SP
M.T
ab
le.1
)
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Part 4: Conclusion and Key
Uncertainties
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Conclusion
• Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further
warming and changes in all components of the climate system.
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained
reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
• Cumulative emission of CO2 largely determine global mean surface
warming by the late 21st century and beyond. Most aspects of
climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of
CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century
climate change commitment created by past, present and future
emissions of CO2.
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© Crown copyright Met
Office
Impacts Climate
scenarios Atmospheric
concentrations
Emissions scenarios
Socio-economic scenarios
SRES: Sequential approach to developing
climate scenarios
• Climate modellers await results from socio-economic
modellers
• Emissions scenarios chosen early on are restrictive.. E.g.
no exploration of deliberate mitigation strategies, difficult
to explore uncertainties in carbon cycle feedbacks.
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© Crown copyright Met
Office
RCPs: Parallel approach to generating climate
scenarios
Impacts
Emissions scenarios
Atmospheric concentrations (‘Representative Concentration Pathway’, RCPs)
Climate scenarios Integrated assessment
modellers and climate
modellers work simultaneously and
collaboratively
Socio-economics
Policy Intervention (mitigation or adaptation)
Carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry