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Value-Focused Thinking

Dr. Greg Parnell

Virginia Commonwealth University

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Overview

• Structure of Decisions

• Value-Focused Thinking– Definition– Benefits– Obstacles– Requirements

• Summary

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Structure of Decisions

ValuesWhat do we want?

InformationWhat do we know?

AlternativesWhat can we do?

Key Idea: Use our strategic values to create decision opportunities

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Alternative Focused Thinking

Initial

AlternativesEvaluate

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Change Thinking

Alternative-Focused Thinking Value-Focused Thinking

Initial

AlternativesEvaluate

Values

New & Initial

Alternatives

Evaluate

(Values)

If you want better decisions,

find better alternatives!

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Benefits of Value Focused Thinking

Thinking About Values

creatingalternatives

guidingstrategicthinking

inter-connectingdecisions

guidinginformation collection

facilitatinginvolvement

identifying decisionopportunities

evaluatingalternatives

improvingcommunication

uncovering hiddenobjectives

Keeney, Ralph L., Value Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decisionmaking, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp. 3-28.

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VFT: Guiding Strategic Thinking

Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3

StrategicObjective

• Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making• Strategic objectives are stable over time• Means to obtain these objectives vary over time

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SPACECAST 2020

Value Model

Missions from JCS PUB 3-14

FORCEENHANCEMENT

FORCEAPPLICATION

SPACECONTROL

SPACESUPPORT

CONTROL & EXPLOIT SPACE

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Greg Parnell's Professional Values

Be an excellent teacher & mentor

Publish important research & be in

demand as consultant

Perform significant professional service

Be an internationally recognized decision analyst & Professor of

Mathematical Sciences (Operations Research)

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VFT: Facilitates Involvement in Multiple-Stakeholder Decisions

Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3

StrategicObjective

Focuses stakeholder interaction on values• Discussions more productive• Key issues become explicit• Postpones discussion of alternatives

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VFT: Uncovering Hidden Objectives

Objective 2 Objective 3 Objective 4

StrategicObjective

• Some objectives require considerable thought to uncover• Some stakeholders have incentives not to identify objectives

Objective 1

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VFT: Improving Communications

• Facilitates communications and understanding between all stakeholders• Avoids technical language of many specialties

Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3

StrategicObjective

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VFT: Decision Opportunities

• Assess how we will attain future strategic objectives• Objectives not being attained• Objectives that are or will be degrading

• Focus our creativity to identify opportunities to create value

Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3

StrategicObjective

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Greg Parnell's Professional Values

Develop world classdecision & risk analysis courses

Develop outstandingoperations research courses

Teach undergraduatecourses that attract

operations research students

Provide sound academic & professional advice

Be an excellent teacher& mentor

Work on challengingproblems

Attract excellentMS thesis students

Be a member

of PhD committees

Build strong researchprogram

Obtain funding for

summer & students

Get research & consultingwork published

Publish important research& be in demand as consultant

Maintain & build friendshipsUniversityCommunity

Nationally/Internationally

Perform university ServiceMath Sciences Dept

H & S SchoolVCU

Support INFORMS/MORSProfessional Objectives

Local/National

Increase program awareness - Locally

Nationally/Internationally

Build network to helpgraduates get jobs

Enhance Math Sciences (OR)undergraduate &

Perform significantprofessional service

Be a internationally recognized decision analyst& Professor of Mathematical Sciences

(Operations Research)

Develop research agenda & thesis

research topics

graduate programs

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VFT: Evaluating Alternatives

Objective 1

Measure of Merit A

Subobjective A

Measure of Merit B

Subobjective B

Measure of Merit C

Subobjective C

Objective 2 Objective 3

StrategicObjective

50%30%20%

30%40%30%

Develop value model to evaluate alternatives• Identify subobjectives required to achieve objectives• Identify measures of merit that quantify the value of achieving subobjectives• Assign weight to the subobjectives and objectives

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SPACECAST 2020 Value Model

Weighted Score = Improvement Score X Force Quality Weight X Task Weight X Mission Weight

FORCEAPPLICATION

NAVIGATION &POSITIONING

INTELLIGENCE &SURVEILLANCE

1000

100

25

10

INITIAL LINKSIN THEATER

CRISISAVAILABILITY

3000

1000

600

300

DECOMPRESSEDMB/SEC/LINK

CAPACITY

US + INTNTL

ALL US

ALL AF

FEW

COMMON-USESYSTEMS

INTEROPERABILITY

PLATOON

BATTALION

DIVISION

CORPS

LEVEL OFSECURE LINKS

SECURITY

COMMUNICATIONS WEATHERMONITORING &

CONTROL

MAPPING,CHARTING, &

GEODESY

WARNING,PROCESSING, &DISSEMINATION

FORCEENHANCEMENT

SPACECONTROL

SPACESUPPORT

CONTROL & EXPLOIT SPACE

0.35 0.35 0.20 0.10

0.20 0.25 0.22

0.19

0.08 0.180.07

0.37 0.22 0.22

MEASURE OF MERIT

FORCEQUALITY

ORDER OF MAGNITUDE

CURRENT

IMPROVEMENT:MINOR

SIGNIFICANT

CAPABILITY

MISSION

TASK

OBJECTIVE

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.5)

(0.9)

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• Value model indicates the important information • Collect information to

• Create better alternatives • Credibly evaluate alternatives

VFT: Guiding Information Collection

Objective 1

Measure of Merit A

Subobjective A

Measure of Merit B

Subobjective B

Measure of Merit C

Subobjective C

Objective 2 Objective 3

StrategicObjective

50%30%20%

30%40%30%

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VFT: Creating Alternatives

Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3

StrategicObjective

• Advocates will propose several alternatives • Focus creativity to generate alternatives that create value

Alternative AAlternative B

Alternative BAlternative C

20% 30% 50%

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• Value model assessments of alternatives • Objective• Traceable • Robust

VFT: Interconnecting Decisions

Objective 1

Measure of Merit A

Task A

Measure of Merit B

Task B

Measure of Merit C

Task C

Objective 2 Objective 3

StrategicObjective

50%30%20%

30%40%30%

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SPACECAST 2020

Operational Analysis Summary

Space Modular Systems

Ionospheric Forecasting

Space Traffic

Control (SPATRACS)

Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV)

Super GPS

Weather Forecasting System

Kinetic Energy Weapons (KEW)

Global Surveillance, Recon, & Targeting System (GSRT)

Solar Mirror

High Power Microwave

Particle Beam

Weather Control

TAV High Energy Laser (HEL)

Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle

(Sensitivity to Weights)

Space Solar Monitoring

1

2

3

4

5

VALU

E

TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGE

AsteroidDetection

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Obstacles to Value-Focused Thinking

• Alternative Focused Thinking

• “Drunk looking for car keys under the lamp post”

• Worrying too much about the “weights”

• Lack of an environment that encourages creativity

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Requirements for Value-Focused Thinking

• Study leadership support• Support from study team• Experienced analysis team

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SummaryVFT offers significant benefits

Thinking About Values

creatingalternatives

guidingstrategicthinking

inter-connectingdecisions

guidinginformation collection

facilitatinginvolvement

identifying decisionopportunities

evaluatingalternatives

improvingcommunication

uncovering hiddenobjectives

Value-Focused Thinking helps us use our strategic objectives to create value

Value Model Has a Central Role

Objective 1

Measure of Merit A

Subobjective A

Measure of Merit B

Subobjective B

Measure of Merit C

Subobjective C

Objective 2 Objective 3

StrategicObjective