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www.litbang.deptan.go.id

Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and DevelopmentIndonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources Research and Development

Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and DevelopmentIndonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources Research and Development

Assessment of drought impact on rice production in Indonesia by satellite remote

sensing and dissemination with web-GIS

Presented at Workshop on Crop Monitoring and Food Security, the 34th ACRS 2013, Bali-Indonesia, 22 October 2013

Rizatus Shofiyati, Wataru Takeuchi, Soni Darmawan, and Parwati Sofan

Area of Natural Disasters in Paddy Field (Ha)

Typhoon

Flood and Landslides

Flood

Epidemic

Wave and abrasion

Earthquake and Tsunami

Earthquake

Pest Infection

Forest Fire

Settlement Fire

Drought

Volcano Eruption

Landslides

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

Even

ts

Events of Natural Disasters

Typhoon

Flood and Landslides

Flood

Epidemic

Wave and abrasion

Earthquake and Tsunami

Earthquake

Pest Infection

Forest Fire

Settlement Fire

Drought

Volcano Eruption

Landslides

Source: http://www.bnpb.go.id

Background

Floods and droughts are common disaster in Indonesia- Flood occured 1,548- Drought occured 960 960

1,548

1,624,260

1,019,123

323,658

Agricultural area that suffered disasters :- Drought : 1,624,260 - Flood : 1,019,123- Landslides : 323,658

National Disaster Management Berau of Indonesia (BNPB) : 2000 - 2007

Presented by Lapan (2011)

Drought Effects on Rice Crop Damage in Indonesia

Source : data processed from the Directorate General of Food Crops Protection

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07K

eru

sa

ka

n ta

na

ma

n p

ad

i a

kib

at

ke

ke

rin

ga

n (H

a)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

Tahun

Ke

ru

sa

ka

n ta

na

ma

n p

ad

i a

kib

at

ba

njir (H

a)

Area damage(ha)

Decreasing of Crop ProductionDrought Year

(El nino)

-0.33%-5.85%45.0

47.5

50.0

52.5

Paddy

Crop

pro

ducti

on (x

106 t

ons)

Year

Average49.5 million tons

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

MaizeCassava

• Special attention to monitor the condition of crops growth during the season is encouraged to reduce the damage.

• An early warning of climate change impact would be very useful in the planning stage of agricultural development settings.

• Sufficient data and information to anticipate various situations caused by climate change is critical, as it would affect agricultural development policy.

Activities of IAARD / MoA’s with Related AgenciesFrequency Institutions Activities / Output Utility

2x / Year • BMKG release prospect of season type season type

• IAHRI (under coordination IAARD)

• BMKG

have discussions and issue weather zone and prediction

weather zone and prediction

3x / Year • IAARD • issues recommendation / guidance of cropping calendar, supported by rainfall data of BMKG.

• The information would be used by :‐ farmer to plan planting time, and ‐ local government to determine

regional planning especially in agricultural field.

• Weather condition potentially influence agriculture areas that could influence national rice production and decisions on importing/ exporting rice.

• BPS invites BMKG, MoA, LAPAN

to discuss the current and future climate condition, vegetation condition, and their impacts on the agriculture production (mainly Java island) for releasing of so-called “predictive rice production numbers”.

SAFE Prototype 2012/13 – 2013/14

• Objective:– to asses the use of satellite data to monitor the drought

condition of rice field in a near real time; – to validate the satellite based model on drought with

ground observation data;– to develop a system based on Web-GIS integrating satellite

based system with existing crop calendar;– to disseminate the drought information to decision

makers, and the farmer through extension worker;

Expected Output

• Nation wide drought condition data of rice field at sub district level;

• Satellite based model of drought validated using ground truth data in Subang and Karawang District, West Java, Klaten, Central Java, Pasuruan and Ngawi, East Java, South Sulawesi, and South Kalimantan;

• A Web based system to disseminate drought information to end users;

Collaboration with AgenciesExecuting Agency Activities

• Excuting Agencies

• ICALRD – IAARD of MoA

• Developing the prediction/early warning models of the potential drought over the agriculture area in Java island.

• Examining the uncertainties of drought indices and their ability to detect drought events in Indonesia and selecting the best drought indices to use in monitoring.

• Integrating drought analysis by satellite data and cropping calendar for determining planting time

• Conducting field checking• Conducting workshop & training

• Supporting Agencies

• JAXA• Univ. Of Tokyo• LAPAN

• Satellite data provision (ALOS AVNIR-2 and PALSAR, ALOS-2)

• Training, workshop, and seminar are matters to be considered during the activity

• Technical supporter, Model development• Assist the automatic data processing needed

for the continuous monitoring.

• End Users

• extension officers,

• local government unit

• farmers

• Conducting field surveys for validation of model

• Conducting workshop & seminar

Overview of the Activities

ActivitiesLAPAN ICALRD - IAARD

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

R & D

Technology / Prototype

Product

Operational

Developing Drought Model (Research Activities)

Model Validation

Developing Web-GISWorkshop

Implementating model for operational use

Dissemination

Applying Model

Integration of Cropping Patterns, Seasonal Rainfall and Satellite Image Analysis

POTENTIAL CROPPING CALENDAR

(IAARD)

SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION

(BMKG)

DROUGHTIMAGE ANALYSIS

(ICALRD)

WET: PS1, PS2, PS3

NORMAL: PS1, PS2, PS3

DRY: PS1, PS2, PS3

FORECAST OF MONTHLY RAINFALL

(mm/month)

PROSPECT OFBEGINNING OF

SEASON

PROSPECT OFSEASON TYPE

(WET, NORMAL, DRY)

NDVI

KBDI

VHI

VCI

Data Used:Rainfall Data

Data Used:• MODIS, • MTSAT • AMSER-E• ALOS AVNIR-2 & PALSAR (acq before May 2011)

Drought Information System

SatelliteData

LocalGovernment

Farmer

DroughtInformation

Rainfall Data

ExtensionOfficer

Season Prediction by BMG

Cropping Calendar by IAARD

updating integrated cropping calendar

RECOMMENDATIONS :• Information of drought

vulnerability• Planting time

DroughtInformation System

Method & Data Used Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) associates with moisture

condition of vegetation:

Thermal Condition Index (TCI) associates with thermal condition of vegetation:

Vegetation Health Index (VHI) represents overall vegetation health:

minmax

min100EVIEVI

EVIEVIxVCI

minmax

max100LSTLST

LSTLSTxTCI

)(5.0 TCIVCIVHI

Kogan, 1990

Kogan, 1990

Kogan, 1990

Classes of Agricultural drought-based VHI

VHI classification (Kogan 2002)

VHI Classes

VHI > 40 No drought

30 < VHI ≤ 40 Mild drought

20 < VHI ≤ 30 Moderate drought

10 < VHI ≤ 20 Severe drought

VHI ≤ 10 Extreme drought

VHI classification (NESDIS NASA)

VHI Classes

VHI > 60 Favorable vegetation

36 < VHI ≤ 60 Fair vegetation

VHI ≤ 36 Stressed vegetation

Vulnerability Level of Drought Year 2012 (Source: IAARD, 2012)

Model Development & ApplicationIn 2012

Source: Takeuchi et al, 2012

VCI & LSWC to Identify Crop Pattern and Intensity

Source: Takeuchi et al., 2012

KBDI & LSWC to Identify Drought in Indramayu

Crop Pattern and Intensity in Java Island by MODIS

Existing Crop Calendar

# Sowing Month Harvest Month Notes

1 October February Northern coast of West Java (Karawang, Subang, Indramayu)

2 March June Northern coast of West Java (Karawang, Subang, Indramayu)

3 July October*) Northern coast of West Java (Karawang, Subang, Indramayu)

The growing seasons detailed below are existing crop calendar in Karawang and Subang. They are based on the cultivar planted in the area which has 90 to 110 days growing period (i.e. Ciherang, IR42, Cidenok, Mekongga, etc.)

*) Secondary crops (maize, soybean, longbean), the harvest time is around August

Guidance of Crop Calender 2012-2013(IAARD 2012)

Rainfall, KBDI, NDVI, LSWC (2009 - 2012) – West Java

VCI, TCI, & VHI of MODIS for Drought of Java

Field Visit for Model Validation

Ground survey for drought

based on ground survey

1. KBDI value 500 – 600 early indication of drought for paddy filed

2. Drought systems have high accuracy3. In the some area that have good irrigation and have

water resource, although indicated drought but paddy field still growth.

3. Ground survey for drought

Kerawang & Bandung West Java

3. Ground survey for drought

Yogyakarta, Central Java

3. Ground survey for drought

Makasar, South Sulawesi

Harvested area since 1993 - 2012

Ten provinces of central areas of paddy production in Indonesia:1. West Java2. Central Java3. East Java4. South Sulawesi5. Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam6. North Sumatra7. West Sumatra8. South Sumatra9. Lampung10. Bali & West Nusa Tenggara

Source: BPS, 2013

Indonesia Rice Productivity (1993 – 2012)

Source: BPS, 2013

Web-GIS Development(on going)

Transfer Data Connection Fasility

Cloud Computing

IAARD

ICALRD

LAPAN

UNIV. OF TOKYO

VPN

VPN

Website Crop Monitoring

Web-GIS for Search Available Information

Feed Back From UserSome Workshops held in 2012:Pariticpants :LAPAN, BPPT, BMKG, BPS, IPB, BB Padi, BIG, etc– Some area need to be verified, It does nor meet with area

condition, such as East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan– More Interactive and integrated :

• Searching menu• Can show the result analysis by using coordinate / cursor

– In Indonesian version → the user is local people.

End user meeting in 2013• From BB. Padi :

a. is it possible for variety of paddy field mapping using remote sensing ? And how ?b. how to predict the drought ?c. How about accuration and validation the drought system ?

• From coordinator of farmer :a. They expect given computer facilities and internet accessb. How to access the systems ? And they hope implemented training/workshop for them

On Going & Next Activities in 2013/14• Continue processing and analysing all indices (SPI, VCI, TCI, VHI),

LSWC, and KBDI Using MODIS, MTSAT, and AMSER-E for 2013.• Developing a system based on Web-GIS integrating satellite based

system.• Correlated KBDI with Crop Calendar• Disseminating the drought information through workshop for end

user (decision makers, and the farmer through extension worker).• Implementing the model for operational use.

Framework of operational use after this prototyping

Satellite data preparation :Inventory and selection of basic analytical methods

Satellite data processing :• digital analysis of satellite imagery, • identifying drought affected area• Analysing drought impact to paddy

production by identifying planted harvested area ICALRD – IAARD – MoA

LAPANUniv. of Tokyo

Data Provider:LAPANJAXA

Data & Information Updating

Data & Information Updating

Web-GIS based Information :

• Area affected of drought• Recommendation : planting time, crop, etc

Web-GIS based Information :

• Area affected of drought• Recommendation : planting time, crop, etc

Preparation of information (spatial & tabular):Agriculture affected area by drought, drought impact to paddy planted area, harvested area, and paddy production.

IAARD, LAPAN, BPS, PUSDATIN of MoA

User:Farmer via extension

officer, Agric. Local Office for Food Crop

feedback

Closing Remarks• Model development:

– NDVI, VHI, LSWC, KBDI (value 500 – 600) can represent precipitation anomaly and well capture a drought onset day.

– VCI of MODIS, LSWC of AMSER-E, KBDI of MTSAT can be used to identify crop pattern → the Indices can be used to estimate yield.

• Validation have been done in West Java (Indramayu District), DI Yogyakarta, South Kalimantan, and South Sulawesi shown same condition with result derived from satellite data.

• Web based system to disseminate drought information is still developing:– More Interactive and integrated– In Indonesian version → the user is local people– Conducting Training/Workshop– Provide Computer and Internet facility

THANK YOU

ICALRDJalan Tentara Pelajar No. 12, Cimanggu, Bogor, 16114 INDONESIA

Tel. +62 251 8323012Fax.+62 251 8311256

Email: csar@indosat.net.idhttp://www.bbsdlp.litbang.deptan.go.id