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1. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases, selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)

CAN

KOR

FRADEU

BEL

USA

Days since 1 case per million

ESP

# of people (log scale)

IND

SWE

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2. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)

SWE

KOR

Days since 1 death per million

DEU

BEL

FRA

ESP# of people (log scale)

IND

CAN

USA

mailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitor



3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases, 3 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

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World

NBF Economics and Strategy

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New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)




3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

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New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)




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4. Canada: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million


SWEQC


CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON


USA

ESP

500

50

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

5. Canada: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million


SWEQC


CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON


USA

ESP




5,000

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

6. Latin America: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

MEX


CAN

BRABEL

PER# of people (log scale)

CHL

ESP

USA

1,000

100

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1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

7. Latin America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

MEX


CAN

BRA

BEL

PER


USA

ESPCHL




Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population

March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 Days

Spain 66.15 83.78 17.97 14.00 27.14 93.8

Japan 0.44 3.20 0.68 2.23 4.04 81.6

Australia 5.7 2.9 0.6 6.9 12.2 76.4

Belgium 35.6 102.8 27.4 10.9 17.1 56.5

Israel 19.9 40.8 4.2 127.6 187.7 47.1

Netherlands 23.7 52.0 13.4 4.7 6.8 45.1

India 0.0 0.8 3.6 18.5 25.7 39.0

Austria 36.4 19.5 4.6 9.4 12.6 34.6

France 25.7 58.0 9.9 6.1 8.0 31.4

South Africa 0.7 2.4 14.7 163.8 206.7 26.2

United Kingdom 11.9 71.7 49.2 8.8 11.0 25.6

Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 9.0 11.1 24.1

United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 165.5 203.2 22.8

Denmark 15.9 36.2 14.0 4.5 5.5 22.4

Switzerland 61.8 50.0 4.8 9.6 11.4 18.4

China 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.2

Mexico 0.3 4.7 18.0 45.9 50.3 9.5

Germany 27.6 36.3 7.9 4.9 5.4 8.9

Italy 55.8 54.9 14.7 3.5 3.3 -5.6

Brazil 0.9 12.8 64.9 170.1 157.1 -7.7

Finland 8.2 21.5 10.9 1.3 1.2 -8.2

South Korea 4.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 -8.7

Portugal 23.5 57.5 23.6 32.9 27.4 -16.7

Turkey 5.2 42.2 16.7 13.4 11.1 -17.0

Norway 27.5 19.0 4.2 1.9 1.3 -29.3

Sweden 14.1 55.0 52.5 67.6 31.4 -53.5

7 days compared to

28 days (% variation)

8. World, Daily new cases per million population

0

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150

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250

ESP JAP AUS BEL ISR NLD IND AUT FRA ZAF GBRCAN USA DEN CHECHNMEXDEU ITA BRA FIN KOR PRT TUR NORSWE

Worst week before June

Current

9. World: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected countries

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

Cases per

million people




Average daily new Covid-19 deaths per million

population


Australia 0.02 0.10 0.013 0.034 0.101 200.0

China 0.01 0.03 0.000 0.000 0.000 140.0

South Korea 0.1 0.1 0.014 0.010 0.020 86.7

Israel 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.8 85.2

South Africa 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 2.4 25.8

India 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 23.8

France 1.7 10.6 2.2 0.3 0.3 16.5

Norway 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 14.3

United States 0.6 6.0 4.0 2.2 2.3 7.4

Brazil 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.8 4.9 1.0

Mexico 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.7 4.5 -5.5

Turkey 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 -5.6

Italy 6.6 8.6 2.9 0.2 0.2 -9.2

Belgium 2.0 19.8 5.2 0.3 0.3 -15.6

Switzerland 1.6 5.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 -20.0

Sweden 0.6 7.9 5.8 1.8 1.5 -20.3

United Kingdom 1.2 12.0 5.6 1.3 1.0 -24.6

Portugal 0.5 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.4 -26.1

Spain 5.8 11.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 -34.7

Canada 0.1 2.8 3.5 0.4 0.2 -35.3

Austria 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -42.9

Japan 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -51.5

Denmark 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 -55.6

Germany 0.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 -59.0

Netherlands 2.0 7.3 2.2 0.1 0.0 -108.7

Finland 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 -500.0

7 days compared to


10. World, Daily new deaths per million population

0

5

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25

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35

AUS CHNKOR ISR ZAF IND FRA NORUSA BRA MEX TUR ITA BEL CHESWEGBR PRT ESP CAN AUT JAP DEN DEU NLD FIN


Current

11. World: Perspective on the current COVID-19 deathsDaily deaths per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected countries


Deaths per

million people






Manitoba 2.4 4.2 0.4 1.0 3.0 190.0

New Brunswick 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.7 166.7

British Columbia 6.3 7.2 2.9 3.3 6.9 106.7

Saskatchewan 5.0 5.8 7.0 6.38 11.00 72.5

Alberta 5.0 35.2 12.1 15.0 24.6 64.5

Quebec 15.7 91.3 88.8 11.6 16.6 43.1

Ontario 4.3 35.0 26.3 10.0 8.0 -20.4

Nova Scotia 4.9 27.3 3.6 0.2 0.1 -33.3

Prince Edward Island 4.3 1.3 0.0 2.0 0.9 -55.6

Newfoundland 9.4 6.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -100.0

Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 9.0 11.1 24.1

Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE

7 days compared to


12. Canada, Daily new cases per million population

0

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MB NB BC SK AB QC ON NS PE NF


Current

13. Canada: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week


Cases per

million people




14. United States, Daily new cases per million population, selected cities



Philadelphia 26.8 276.8 166.2 86.5 124.2 43.6

San Francisco 14.5 41.7 39.8 85.9 115.9 34.9

Miami-Dade 25.2 122.0 70.5 799.2 1016.0 27.1

Los Angeles 9.7 67.1 102.1 259.8 322.9 24.3

Seattle (King County) 33.3 57.4 27.0 64.5 78.8 22.2

Minneapolis (Hennepin County) 5.2 40.4 169.6 110.5 128.4 16.3

Houston (Harris County) 4.7 40.1 40.5 257.8 294.1 14.1

Chicago (Cook County) 28.1 207.2 259.4 80.6 87.9 9.0

New York City 166.8 497.2 138.6 38.4 41.2 7.2

United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 165.5 203.2 22.8


7 days compared to


0

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1200

Philadelphia SF Miami LA Seattle Minneapolis Houston Chicago NYC


Current

15. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected cities


Cases per

million people




16. United States, Daily new cases per million population


March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysMissouri (MO) 6.5 32.7 26.1 90.2 135.3 49.9Maryland (MD) 8.9 110.7 165.6 83.2 121.9 46.5Michigan (MI) 24.6 107.6 43.5 51.6 74.3 44.0Indiana (IN) 10.3 77.5 79.9 77.3 109.7 41.9Wisconsin (WI) 7.8 31.2 64.0 110.1 149.1 35.4Virginia (VA) 5.3 60.0 108.7 93.9 125.6 33.7Tennessee (TN) 11.3 40.7 55.8 231.2 302.9 31.0Texas (TX) 4.2 28.6 40.0 278.4 364.6 31.0Washington (WA) 23.0 38.9 31.2 88.5 112.3 26.9Georgia (GA) 11.9 70.0 63.1 267.9 336.5 25.6Ohio (OH) 6.1 45.1 48.3 93.6 113.8 21.6California (CA) 6.7 35.4 50.5 192.6 233.2 21.1Florida (FL) 10.1 41.8 33.5 432.6 518.5 19.9Illinois (IL) 15.2 123.3 171.2 75.2 90.1 19.7Massachusetts (MA) 30.9 268.7 162.6 34.1 40.7 19.3North Carolina (NC) 4.7 29.3 55.4 161.0 184.7 14.8New York (NY) 125.7 391.6 110.1 34.6 37.2 7.5Arizona (AZ) 5.7 29.2 54.4 444.5 419.2 -5.7New Jersey (NJ) 67.9 375.1 151.8 30.3 23.2 -23.6Pennsylviana (PA) 12.5 112.0 70.9 42.3 15.7 -62.9United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 165.5 203.2 22.8


7 days compared to


0

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MO MD MI IN WI VA TN TX WA GA OH CA FL IL MA NC NY AZ NJ PA


Current

17. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, 20 most populous states


Cases per

million people




18. United States, Daily new deaths per million population

Average daily new Covid-19 deaths per million population

March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysTexas (TX) 0.1 0.9 1.0 2.3 4.1 74.8Florida (FL) 0.1 1.8 1.8 3.2 5.3 67.5Arizona (AZ) 0.1 1.4 2.6 7.0 10.6 50.2North Carolina (NC) 0.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.0 48.4Tennessee (TN) 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.7 2.1 24.1California (CA) 0.1 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.5 23.6Washington (WA) 0.9 2.6 1.3 0.8 1.0 22.0Georgia (GA) 0.3 3.2 2.8 1.8 2.0 14.2Ohio (OH) 0.2 2.6 3.3 1.5 1.5 3.1Wisconsin (WI) 0.1 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.6 3.0Indiana (IN) 0.2 5.3 4.9 1.4 1.3 -7.4Missouri (MO) 0.1 2.3 1.9 0.9 0.8 -16.5Michigan (MI) 0.9 12.3 5.6 1.0 0.7 -24.6Maryland (MD) 0.1 6.2 7.4 1.8 1.3 -26.0Massachusetts (MA) 0.4 16.8 15.4 2.9 2.1 -26.3Pennsylviana (PA) 0.2 6.3 7.8 1.7 1.2 -27.7Virginia (VA) 0.1 2.2 3.2 1.8 1.1 -37.4New York (NY) 5.4 36.5 9.8 1.3 0.8 -39.4Illinois (IL) 0.3 5.9 7.7 2.3 1.1 -51.4New Jersey (NJ) 1.0 26.1 16.2 11.0 2.5 -77.4United States 0.6 6.0 4.0 2.2 2.3 7.4


7 days compared to


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Current

19. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 deathsDaily deaths per million people, worst week before June and current week, 20 most populous states


Deaths per

million people




-10

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

20. New York City: Then vs nowWeekly deaths per 100 000 population: 1918 pandemic vs COVID-19 (COVID-19 last obs.: July 12 to 18)

Weekly deaths per 100 000 population

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Wikipedia, Markel and al. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented

During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic)

COVID-19

1918 pandemic

# of weeksWeek 1: September 14 1918/ March 14 2020

Shaded area represents length of nonpharmaceutical interventions in

1918, line represent start of measures in 2020

32.3

46.9

16.1

4.7

23.1

64.0

8.5

4.4

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10

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90

less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofinfluenza andpneumonia deaths

21. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths

NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC, Census Bureau)

18.6

39.7

25.8

16.0

0.032.6

17.1

80.3

0

10

20

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40

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80

90

less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofCOVID-19 deaths

Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of July 15)

% %

AgeAge




22. World: Perspective on trafficDifference in congestion level vs 2019, 7 day moving average (last obs.: July 13 to 19)

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Tom Tom Traffic)

Percentage points

-100

-90

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Montreal Paris Madrid Rome Stockholm Berlin Miami New York Tokyo

Worst week Now

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Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020

23. World: Perspective on restaurant reservationsYear over year change in restaurant reservations, 7 day moving average (last obs.: July 18)

y/y change

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Open Table)

CAN

USA

DEU

Global

GBR




-80

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0

10


23. World: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

% change from baseline*

SWE

USACAN

GBR

FRA

ESP

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

DEU

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10


25. Canada: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

% change from baseline*

CAAB QC

BC

ON




-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

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4.5

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

26. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index

Stdev

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Lehman bankruptcy

and AIG bailout

U.S. government

credit downgrade

and Eurozone

crisis

Fear of Chinese

recession and

petrol supply

shock

COVID-19

outbreak and

OPEC/Russia oil

price war

NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada

Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the

S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.

Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,

minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian

government bond yield.

S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.

USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.

BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Variables Estimation




.

.

mailto:[email protected]

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