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10 years of crypto/blockchain:
what to expect in the next decade
Professor George M. GiaglisGeneral Director, Institute For the Future (IFF)
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IFF Activity timeline
2016First MSc graduatesLaunch Blockchain Research Center
2013
Bitcoin acceptance1st in the world
2014Launch blockchain MOOC & MSc degree
1st in the world40,000 MOOC students550 MSc students95 countries
2015
Publish MOOC certificates on the blockchain
1st in the world
2017Launch Institute For the Future (IFF)All UNIC Diplomas on the Blockchain
1st in the world
Decentralized 2017500+ attendees, 20 countries
2018
Launch block.coDecentralized 2018
1,200+ attendees, 39 countries
M4 competition100,000 datasets, 200+ research teams
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Leaders in blockchain education
#1 University of Nicosia#2 University of Cumbria
#3 Simon Fraser University#4 MIT
#5 New York University#6 Duke University
#7 McGill University#8 Pompeu Fabra University
#9 Imperial College
Source: Coindesk, 2015
#1 University of Nicosia#2 New York University#3 Stanford University
#4 Princeton#5 Duke University
Source: The Merkle, 2017
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Leaders in blockchain researchProject Budget Funding by Duration IFF role
INFINITECH € 21m EC (H2020) 3.25 years Partner
ABC € 17m Austrian govt 4 years Partner
EUNOMIA € 2.4m EC (H2020) 3 years Partner
BLOCKPOOL.EU € 1.5m EC (H2020) 2 years Partner
DLT4ALL € 1m EC (Erasmus+) 3 years Coordinator
Direct industry funding € 1m Ripple, trade.io, PumaPay, etc. 1-5 years Main/sole partner
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Decentralized 2019
www.decentralized.comEarly bird ticket deadline: 31 July
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Outline
A brief intro to crypto/blockchain
The first decade: Crypto/Blockchain 2009-2018
Milestones for the next decade
Local Admissions (EU)
Crypto/Blockchain
A brief intro
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A brave new world: Exponential technologies
8
Internet of Things Artificial Intelligence
Distributed Ledgers (Blockchain)
Robotics Augmented/Virtual Reality 3D Printing
Molecular nanotechnology New materials Energy storage
Autonomous Vehicles
Genetic engineering
Quantum computing
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Bitcoin: A first attempt at network money
Bitcoin is a private, decentralized, digital cryptocurrency
Private: Not issued by a sovereign
Decentralized: No issuing party; units are issued algorithmically
Digital: Fully electronic; no peg to other assets
Cryptocurrency: Anti-counterfeiting through cryptography
9
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Crypto-currency acceptance: major coins
10
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Blockchain (or DLT)
A blockchain is a ledger of transactions.
A shared, time-stamped, append-only, immutable, cryptographically-securedledger of transactions.
Shared: blockchains do not make much sense unless two or more parties (or systems) are involved.Time-stamped: transactions are stored in chronological order.Append-only: you can only add new transactions to a blockchain. Immutable: Once written, a transaction cannot be erased or altered.Cryptographically-secured: advanced cryptography enables all the above.
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So, why is this important?
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Not all blockchains are the same: DLT Taxonomy
13
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Types of blockchains
14
Local Admissions (EU)
The first decade
Crypto/Blockchain 2009-2018
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Timeline 2009-2018
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Bitcoin release Altcoin rush Crypto Graffiti Smart contracts ICOs
Decentralized money
Decentralized Internet
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BTC price in USD (all time, log scale)
Local Admissions (EU)
The next decade
Value creation 2019-2028
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How did the internet revolutionalize our world?
First, technology creates a new foundational infrastructure
• Internet democratizing exchange of information
Initially, we think about moving existing business to the new infrastructure
• From brick-and-mortar to B2B/B2C commerce
But, then two things happen:• First, disintermediation (creative destruction)
• Irrelevant players that won’t reinvent themselves get eliminated (or pivot)
• Then, cybermediation (new business models)• Which couldn’t have existed earlier • Think Instagram, Uber/Lyft, AirBnB, etc.
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How will crypto/blockchain revolutionalize our world?
First, technology creates a new foundational infrastructure
• Internet democratizing exchange of information
Initially, we think about moving existing businessto the new infrastructure
• From brick-and-mortar to B2B/B2C commerce
But, then two things happen:• First, disintermediation (creative destruction)
• Irrelevant players that won’t reinvent themselves get eliminated (or pivot)
• Then, cybermediation (new business models)• Which couldn’t have existed earlier •
First, technology creates a new foundational infrastructure
• Blockchain democratizing exchange of value/trust
Initially, we think about moving existing businessto the new infrastructure
• From e-commerce to blockchain-enabled commerce
But, then two things happen:• First, disintermediation (creative destruction)
• Irrelevant players that won’t reinvent themselves get eliminated (or pivot)
• Then, cybermediation (new business models)• Which couldn’t have existed earlier
TODAY
TOM
ORRO
W
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Disintermediation
Who becomes irrelevant with blockchain?
Who mediates consensus between untrusted parties?
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Toward shorter supply chains?
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Toward shorter supply chains?
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Cybermediation
What new business models can be implemented that were not possible before?
Why should ‘parties’ be confined to individuals or organizations?Might intelligent machines or objects also need to reach consensus with each other in the future?
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Internet of Things
IoT is the internet of physical devices embedded with sensors, software and connectivity.
30-50 billion such devices by 2020
First M:1 information technology in historyComputers 1:MMobiles 1:1Sensors M:1
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Artificial Intelligence
AI refers to computer science techniques that enable machines to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence
Visual perception, speech recognition, language translation, etc.
AI is whatever hasn’t been done by computers yet JAI in 1999: OCR, playing chess (narrow intelligence)AI in 2019: autonomous vehicles, robots (toward general intelligence)
AI is still largely immatureBut, progress has picked up speed (exponentially)Next frontier: From centralized to decentralized intelligence (edge computing)
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The future technology stackDLT
Smart contracts & digital money
enabling M2M commerce
AIIntelligent algorithms run on autonomous
machines at the edges of the network(mini-brains)
IoTA dense network of physical and virtual objects, each with
sensory and/or actuating capabilities
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Conclusion: The era of Decentralization
2009 2015 20xx 20xx 20xx
Decentralized money
Decentralized Internet
Decentralized organizations
Decentralized intelligence
Decentralized Internet of
Things