Hui-Wen Huang19 June, 2017

Computation and Analysis on Taiwan Index of Energy

Security Risk

The 40th Annual IAEE International ConferenceInstitute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER)

Outline

• Introduction• Exposure of Energy Import• Prediction for the Future Years• Conclusions• Suggestion

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Introduction

• The International Index of Energy Security Risk - by U.S. Chamber of Commerce (USCC).

• 29 indexes belong to eight categories• Localization for these energy security

risk analysis• Taiwan's domestic data were used to

perform energy security risk analysis

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Structure of international index of energy security risk of USCC

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Comparison of Taiwan’s energy security risk and OECD energy security risk

The financial crisis in 2008

Analysis for the past years

Fossil fuel import exposure

Risk Exposure of Energy Import

• Taking Diversity of Supply into account on gas, coal, and oil import

• Taiwan has been over-concentrated in a particular country in the past, – induced high risk of exposure of energy

import for a specific period of time. • The issue has been adequately

mitigated by increasing the importing countries to enhance diversity and to reduce the risk exposure.

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Gas Import Exposure results analyzed by INER

10Coal import exposure results analyzed by INER

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Index of

Energy

security in

the history

TIMES

GEMEET

Index of

Energy

security in

the future

GDP

• Power generations

• Power capacities

• CO2 emission

• …

Combining the USCC energy security indexes with TIMES and GEMEET model

• TIMES model predicts the

basic data of the

scenarios

• GEMEET model calculates

GDP based on the

electricity demand from

TIMES model.

• Analyzing the energy

security risks of Taiwan's

domestic energy security

risks indexes for the

future years

Prediction for the Future Years

Prediction for the Future Years

• Scenarios: – Business as usual (BAU)– Optimistic Scenario – Moderate Scenario

• Optimistic Scenario and Moderate Scenario - in compliance with– Intended Nationally Determined

Contribution (INDC)– Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reduction Act

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Prediction for the Future Years

• Greenhouse gas emissions reduction policies in Taiwan – Intended Nationally Determined

Contribution (INDC)• in 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are to be 50 %

lower than their projected level (BAU)

– Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reduction Act • in 2050, greenhouse gas emissions are to be 50 %

lower than greenhouse gas emissions in 2005

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14Power generation for BAU

fossil fuel power

plants are

massively used.

Coal

fired

Gas

fired

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Power generation for Optimistic Scenario

• Maximized

renewable energy

• By 2050, PV 44

GW , offshore

wind power 15

GW

• Gas-fired power

generation

• Coal-fired power

plants with carbon

capture and storage

(CCS)

• Reduce power

demand

• to achieve CO2

emission reduction

policy

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Power generation for Moderate Scenario

• Limited renewable

energy

• By 2050, PV 30

GW , offshore

wind power 9

GW

• Gas-fired power

generation

• Coal-fired power

plants with carbon

capture and storage

(CCS)

• Reduce MORE

power demand

• to achieve CO2

emission reduction

policy

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Comparison of BAU, Optimistic Scenario and Moderate Scenario on total power

generation for future years

MORE

electricity

demand

suppression

gas-fired plant

decommission

INDC

electricity

demand

suppression

GHG Reduction Act

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Comparison of BAU, Optimistic Scenario and

Moderate Scenario on GDP per Capita for future

years

MORE

electricity

demand

suppression

electricity

demand

suppression

Comparison of BAU, Optimistic Scenario and Moderate

Scenario on the Risk of GDP per Capita for future years

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Comparison of BAU, Optimistic Scenario and

Moderate Scenario on the Risk of Non-Carbon

Generation for future years

To fulfill

GHG reduction

act

Comparison of BAU, Optimistic Scenario and

Moderate Scenario on the Risk of CO2 Emissions

Trend for future years

Moderate

Scenario-

� electricity

demand

suppression

� Lower GDP

Comparison of BAU, Optimistic Scenario

and Moderate Scenario on the risk of CO2

GDP intensity for future years

20Imported fossil fuel price projections

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Comparison of BAU, Optimistic Scenario and

Moderate Scenario on the risk of Energy

expenditures per capita for future years

Comparison of BAU, Optimistic Scenario

and Moderate Scenario on the risk of fossil

fuel import expenditure per GDP for future

years

Comparison of BAU, Optimistic

Scenario and Moderate Scenario on

the risk of energy expenditure intensity

for future years

The effect of fossil

fuel price increase

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Comparison of BAU, Optimistic Scenario and Moderate Scenario on energy

security risk analysis for future years

CO2 reduction

effect

Fossil fuel price

increase effect

Conclusions

• Heavily relying on a particular power generation will worsen the energy import risk exposure.

• Massively increasing renewable energy will cause deterioration of power quality and high electricity price issues.

• Using renewable energy requires gas fired power plant to compensate the instability.

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Conclusions

• Massively using gas-fired power generation will induce short spare storage issue.

• Fossil fuel price will rise in decades which will induce economic issue.

• Excluding nuclear power and reducing coal-fired power generation will cause base load power shortage issues.

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Suggestion

• The energy policy with diversity consideration should be taken into account.

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Institute of Nuclear Energy Research

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Thank you for your attention

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