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Volume1,Number7
March2008
Resolved:TheUSsystemofpresidentialprimariesis
contraryto
democratic
values.
Crossfire Briefs
PFDebate.com
presents
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs March2008:PresidentialPrimaries
March2008
Thetopicareaistimelyandinteresting.Ijustwishtheresolutionwaswordeddifferently.
ThePRO
and
CON
sections
are
not
even
because
the
topic
literature
is
not
even.
Most
people
think
there
is
aproblemandnotmanypeoplearedefendingtheexistingprimaryprocess.IllseeifIcanevenitoutinthe
Update,butIwontmakeanypromises.
GoodLuck!
BobJordan
CopyrightandDistribution
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ContactInformation
Emailisfarandawaythebestwaytocontactus.Youarelikelytoreceivearesponsewithinminutes.
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.CriteriaForAPresidentialNominatingSystem.
Ranneyin1980,
AustinRanney.[ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley].ThePresidentialNominatingProcess:Can
ItBeImproved?AmericanEnterpriseInstitute.1980.pp.1314.
Webeganbystatingthecriteriabywhichwebelieveanypresidentialnominatingsystemshouldbejudged,andwe
agreeduponfivemaincriteria:
1. Theprocessshouldencouragebothpartiestonominategoodcandidatesthatis,personswhowillbebothef
fectivecampaignersand,ifelected,effectivepresidents.Suchcandidates,webelieve,musthavemanyqualities,
butfirstandforemosttheymusthavehadbroadexperienceingovernment,atleastsomeofitinthenational
government.
2. Theprocessshouldbeperceivedbybothpoliticalleadersandordinarycitizensasfair,proper,andlegitimate.
3. TheprocessshouldforcethecandidatestomeetfrequentlyanddobusinesswithleadersofCongress,leadersof
stategovernments,andleadersofthemajorinterestgroupsthatis,withthepeoplewithhomeapresident
mustdealifheistobeeffective.
4.
The
process
should
stimulate
public
understanding
of
the
major
issues
of
the
day
and
crystallize
public
opinion
on
thoseissues.
5. Theprocessshouldencouragethenationalconventionstobetrulydeliberativedecisionmakingbodies.
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.CriteriaForAPresidentialNominatingSystem.
Jacksonin2008,JohnS.Jackson.[VisitingProfessor,PaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute].PresidentialNominationsandRegionalPrimaries:
AnAnalysisofProposalsforReform.AnOccasionalPaperofthePaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute.Paper#9.January2008.
p.9.
http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf.
Accessed
February
11,
2008.
Whatshouldbethestandardsorcriteriaweusetoselectasetofrules?Thefollowingarecriteriadevelopedbytheauthor
whichheadvocates.Italsoprovidesabriefrationalefortherulesadvocated.
1. Therulesofthegameshouldbepredictable,transparent,andagreeduponinadvance.
2. Therules,insofaraspossible,shouldbeneutral,i.e.notunfairlyadvantageordisadvantageanyparticularparty,
candidate,faction,orgroupwhoarelikelytoplay.(Iftherulescantbeentirelyneutral,theadvantagesanddis
advantagestheybestowshouldatleastberandomlydistributed.)Candidateswillalwaysactstrategically,that
istrytomaximizetheirownbestinterests;however,thatshouldnotpreventtherulesfromseekingtomakethe
rulesneutral.
3. Theplanshouldmaximizecommunitiesofinterest,i.e.showwhichcandidateswillrunbetterinwhichdifferent
parts
of
the
nation.
4. Theplanshouldnotforeclosetheoutcomeprematurelybyitstiming,i.e.determinethewinnertooearlyinthe
seasoninawaywhichleavesoutasubstantialpartoftherestofthenation,ormajorstateplayersandinterests.
5. Nosinglestate,orsmallnumberofstatesorsingleregion,shouldhavetheabilitytodeterminetheoutcomeact
ingalone.Allvotersshouldhaveanequalinitialopportunitytohaveanimpactontheoutcomeandnosingle
voter,orgroupofvoters,shouldbeleftout(asisthecasenow).
6. Theresultsshouldbeasrepresentativeaspossibleofallpartsofthenation,andalltheinterestsandpeople
whowillvoteinthegeneralelection.
7. Thesequenceofstateeventsshouldhaveenoughspacebetweeneacheventtoprovideforrationalreflection
anddiscourseonwhatthoseresultsmeanforwhowillbepresident.Theresultsofeacheventshouldprovide
timeforthepeople,thecandidatesandthemediatoreflectontheresultsandmakeadjustmentsandseekaddi
tionalinformationanddebateaboutthemeritsofeachsurvivingcandidate.Thereshouldbetimeforbuyers
remorsetobeaccommodatedandthereshouldbenorushtojudgmentwhichcutsoffdebateprematurely.
Jacksonin2008,
JohnS.Jackson.[VisitingProfessor,PaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute].PresidentialNominationsandRegionalPrimaries:
AnAnalysisofProposalsforReform.AnOccasionalPaperofthePaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute.Paper#9.January2008.
p.12.http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf.AccessedFebruary11,2008.
Obviously,thesystemwehavenowfailsvirtuallyallofthecriteriaofferedabove.Themostdammingindictmentofthe
systemnowisthatwecantevenagreeupontherulesofthegameaheadoftime,andthatwehavesuchchaosinthe
mannerinwhichthe20072008presidentialnominationscontestsarebeingconducted.However,thischaoticsituation
didnotjusthappenyesterday.Wehaveknownforalongtimethatthefrontloadingphenomenonwasacceleratingand
thatsomethingneededtobedone.
http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries
PRO
TopicAnalysis 4
General
TheCurrentPrimarySystemIsBroken 78TheCurrentPrimarySystemNeedsToBeReformed 9TheTimeForPrimaryReformIsNow 10TheCurrentPrimarySystemViolatesDemocraticPrinciples 1113TheTopicFocusesOnTheWrongIssue;EveryoneAgreesThereIsAProblem 14
FrontLoading
FrontLoadingDefined 15FrontLoadingIsCausedByNewHampshireEnvy 16The2008PrimarySeasonIsTheMostFrontLoadedInU.S.History 1718FrontLoadingGetsWorseWithEachElection 19FrontLoadingHasResultedInADeFactoNationalPrimary 20FrontLoadingDecreasesDiscussionAndDebate 21
WithoutReform,
Front
Loading
Will
Continue
To
Get
Worse
22
FrontLoadingViolatesDemocraticPrinciples 23OnBalance,FrontLoadingIsBad 24
FrontLoadingDecreasesVoterParticipation 25FrontLoadingDisenfranchisesVoters 26FrontLoadingResultsInShallowDecisionMaking 27FrontLoadingPreventsDarkHorseCandidates 28FrontLoadingFuelsTheMoneyPrimary 2930FrontLoadingHasManyUndesirableConsequences 31
Iowa&NewHampshire
TheEmphasisOnIowaAndNewHampshireIsUndemocratic 3233
BrownUniversity
Study
Says
Iowa
&
New
Hampshire
Have
Up
To
20
Times
The
Influence
Of
34
36
VotersInLaterStatesBrownUniversityStudyProvesThatTheCurrentPrimarySystemIsUndemocratic 37Iowa&NewHampshireAreNotRepresentative 38Iowa&NewHampshireReceiveMajorBenefitsByGoingFirst 39OtherStatesCouldServeTheSameFunctionAsIowa&NewHampshire 40TheIowaCaucusesAreUndemocratic 41TheIowaCaucusesDisenfranchiseVoters 42TheIowaCaucusVotersAreNotBound 43
DemocraticPartySuperDelegates
SuperDelegatesDefined 44SuperDelegatesCouldDetermineTheDemocraticNominee 45
Super
Delegates
Are
Undemocratic
46
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries
TopicAnalysis:PRO
Resolved:TheUSsystemofpresidentialprimariesiscontrarytodemocraticvalues.
Theliterature
on
this
topic
overwhelmingly
favors
the
PRO
this
month.
Iwould
go
PRO
every
chance
Icould.Alotofpeopleareunhappyabouttheprimaryprocess,buttherearetoomanyentitiesinvolvedandthe
folksinvolvedcannotagreeonasolution.
Idontthinkthisisatopicwhereyouwanttotrytobecreative.Theevidenceissogoodwithregardto
frontloadingandIowa&NewHampshirethatIstronglysuggestthatyousticktothebasics.Thesuper
delegatecaseareaisinteresting,anditcouldbeahotissueinMarchoradud.Itisimpossibletoknowatthis
point.Acasewithtwocontentions,onefocusingontheDemocraticPartyssuperdelegateproblemandan
othercontentionfocusingontheRepublicanPartysWinnerTakeAllsystemwouldbeaninterestingcasethat
doesnotpickonaparticularparty.
Iknow
there
is
some
temptation
to
go
outside
the
mainstream
and
discuss
the
primaries
of
parties
like
theGreensandtheLibertarians,butIjustdontthinkthecasewillbeverycompelling.Ialsothinkitwillbedif
ficulttoresearch.
Dontoverthink thephrasedemocraticvalues.Alotoftheevidencetalksaboutthevariousprimary
issuesinrelationtodemocraticprincipleslikeoneperson,onevote.Ratherthangetcaughtupinanesoteric
debateaboutdemocracy,letyourcontextualevidencedotheworkforyou.
GoodLuck!
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Wangin2007,
TovaAndreaWang.[DemocracyFellowatTheCenturyFoundation].ThePresidentialPrimarySystemsDemocracy
Problems.TheCenturyFoundation.IssueBrief.March12,2007.p.9.
http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf.Accessed
February
2,
2008.
Itmaybetoolatetodoanythingintimeforthe2008presidentialelection.Yettheproblemswiththecurrentsystemcan
notbeignored.Aswithotherissuesthatthevotingandcivilrightscommunitiesdevoteattentionto,theflawsinthepri
maryprocesspresentaseriouschallengetofairandequitablerepresentationinthedemocraticprocess.Meaningfulpub
licparticipationinthenominationofcandidatesisafairlyrecentphenomenon.Priorto1968,candidateswerelargely
handpickedbypartybosses.Nowthattheprimariesareanexpectedandimportantpartofthepresidentialelectionsys
tem,groupsshouldconsideraddressingtheminaccordancewiththesamedemocraticprinciplesastheydoforgeneral
elections.
Winnin2008,
PeteWinn.[SeniorStaffWriter].StatesWantCongresstoFixBrokenPrimarySystem.CybercastNewsService.
February
7,
2008.
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.html .
AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Accordingtothepeoplewhooverseemostelectionsatthestatelevel,thesystemisbrokenandneedsrepair.
"Thereissomethingwrongwiththeprimarysystem,"KentuckySecretaryofStateTreyGraysontoldCybercastNews
Service.
"Thestatesarefightingtomovetothefrontoftheline.Thepartiesaretryingtoinstillorder.Thecandidatesaretryingto
dealwithruleschanginginthemiddleofacampaignandhavingtodecidewhethertocampaigninstatesthatmayhave
violatedrulesoforderonhostingprimaries,"Graysonsaid.Klobucharin2007,
AmyKlobuchar.
[U.S.
Senator,
D
Minnesota].
Senator
Klobuchar
Pushes
Solution
to
End
Primary
Arms
Race.
USFedNews.September19,2007.LexisNexis.AccessedFebruary8,2008.
Ourpresidentialprimarysystemisbroken.It'stimetostoptheprimaryarmsrace.
EachindividualinthiscountryshouldhaveavoiceinelectingthePresidentoftheUnitedStatesavoicethatbeginswith
selectingthecandidatesthroughprimariesandcaucusesineachstate.
Avastnumberofvotersinmanystatesacrossthenation,however,havelosttheirvoiceinthepresidential
primaryselectionprocess,becauseofitsdrasticallyalteredcalendar.
Currently,we'reinaracewhereeachstateistryingtoleapfrogthenext,asallthestatesappeartobevyingtoholdthe
earliest
primary.
The
voters
of
each
state
no
longer
have
a
say,
unless
they
are
able
to
compete
with
the
slew
of
other
statesthataretryingtogofirst.
Thepresidentialprimariesandcaucusesareturningouttobe,toquoteaneditorialinaSanAntoniopaper,"abigmess."
Andreformingthis"mess"islongoverdue.
http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdfhttp://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.htmlhttp://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.htmlhttp://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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Sabatoin2007,
LarryJ.Sabato.[CenterforPolitics,UniversityofVirginia].AMorePerfectConstitution.NewYork:WalkerPublishing
Company.2007.pp.124125.
Darwinianevolutionisfinefortheoriginofthespecies,butitispasttimeforthenecessarypoliticalinstitutionscalled
partiestobegovernedbysomesortoffederalintelligentdesign.OnlytheConstitutioncanachievethisaim.
Ifanyongoingdisastercanprovethepoint,surelyitisthequadrennialorgyofthepresidentialprimaryprocess.
Imaginethataconventionofclownsmettodesignanamusing,crazyquiltscheduletonominatepresidentialcandidates.
Theresultingsystemwouldprobablylookmuchasourdoestoday.Theincoherentorganizationofprimariesandcau
cuses,andthecandidatesmaddashattemptstomovearoundthemap,wouldbefunnyifthegoalelectingtheleader
ofthefreeworldwerentsoserious.Mayer&Buschin2004,
William
G.
Mayer
[Associate
Professor
of
Political
Science,
Northeastern
University]
and
Andrew
E.
Busch
[Associate
ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.Washington
DC:BrookingsInstitutionPress.2004.pp.23.
Bythemid1990s,however,alargenumberofpoliticalcommentatorsandobservershadtakennoticeoffrontloading
and,withasingulardegreeoffunanimity,deploreditseffectsonthepresidentialselectionprocess.In1996thesystem
thatresultedfromfrontloadingwasdescribedasmadness,insane,warpedandvirtuallymindless,absurdlyaccel
erated,selfdefeating,debilitating,ahighspeeddemolitionderby,andaparodyofparticipatorydemocracyin
whichcandidateshaverushedthroughthecountrylikepassengerslateforaconnection.In2000variouscommentators
calledthenominationprocessasoundbitesaturatedsprint,astampede,adisasterfordemocracy,absurd,a
moshpit,terrible,dangerouslyirrational,amutantgameofhopscotch,afreighttrain,andacrazyquiltsys
temthatproducedalemminglikerush.
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Liebermanin2007,
JosephLieberman.[U.S.Senator,IConnecticut].RegionalPresidentialPrimaryTestimony.September18,2008.
http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdf.AccessedFebruary8,2008.
Theguidingprincipleofourdemocracyisthateverycitizenhastheopportunitytochoosehisorherleaders.Butthesad
truthisthisprinciplenolongerbearsaresemblancetotherealityofanincreasinglysquashedandarbitraryprimary
system.
Weneedtochangeourpresidentialprimarysystemtomakeitmorereasonable,moreinclusive,andbetterstructuredso
thatitproperlyreflectsthesignificanceitholdsnotonlyeveryfouryears,butasafoundingprincipleofourgreatnation.
Kemmis&Brownin2008,
DanielKemmis&BobBrown.[CenterfortheRockyMountainWest].LetsMoveToA4MonthRegionalPresidential
PrimarySystem.ClarkForkChronicle.January9,2008.
http://www.clarkforkchronicle.com/article.php/20080109154002620.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Weneedtoreformbothourpresidentialnominationprocessandourpresidentialelectionprocess.Ourbadlyflawed
democraticsystemisstillbetterthananynondemocraticalternative.Butwecanandshouldmakeitbetter.
Winnin2008,
PeteWinn.[SeniorStaffWriter].StatesWantCongresstoFixBrokenPrimarySystem.CybercastNewsService.
February7,2008.http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.html .
AccessedFebruary9,2008.
"Primarieswerenotintendedtobeanarmsrace,"Klobucharsaid."Weseektogiveordertothischaotic,messy,and
unrepresentativeprocess.Thisschedulegivespowerandinfluencebacktothevotersineverystate."
Whyhasthisnotbeentriedbefore?Becausethepeoplewhosettherulesforprimariesareoftentimesrepresentativesof
thecampaigns,
and
they
naturally
want
to
do
what's
best
for
their
campaigns,
Grayson
answered.
"IfyoujustlookatSuperTuesday,alotofthestatesintheNortheastmovedupontheRepublicansidetotrytobenefit
MayorGiuliani,"hesaid."ForDemocrats,Illinoismoveduptotrytobenefittheirfavoriteson,BarackObama.Soyouhave
forcesthataretryingtonominate'theirguy'or'theirgal.'"
Nicholsin2008,
JohnNichols.[WashingtonCorrespondent,TheNation].TheMadMoneyPrimaryRace.TheNation.January3,2008.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
"Howthecandidatesarenominateddefineseverythingelse,yetpeoplegetsofocusedonthehorseracethattheydon't
alwayspayenoughattentiontotheneedtomaketheprocessfunctionalanddemocratic,"saysRobRichie,anexperton
electoral
systems
who
directs
FairVote
The
Center
for
Voting
and
Democracy,
which
has
positioned
itself
as
a
key
player
inthepushforreform."That'stheproblem,becausewehavetohavemorepeopleinvolvedinseekingreformifit'sgoing
tohappen."Richieisinvolved,asareassortedreformers,academics,partyinsidersandpoliticalveteranslikeformerTen
nesseeSenatorBillBrockandCaliforniaDemocraticPartyexecutiveboardmemberDavidPhelps,whohaveformedabi
partisanFixthePrimariesgroup,thestatedpurposeofwhichispromoting"farreachingreformoptions."
http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdfhttp://www.clarkforkchronicle.com/article.php/20080109154002620http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.htmlhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.htmlhttp://www.clarkforkchronicle.com/article.php/20080109154002620http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheTimeForPrimaryReformIsNow.
Nicholsin2008,
JohnNichols.[WashingtonCorrespondent,TheNation].TheMadMoneyPrimaryRace.TheNation.January3,2008.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Canthisriggedsystembereorderedtocreateafairfightin2012?Yes,butitdependsontheabilityofreformerstocap
tureamomentwhen,asveteranpoliticalstrategistSteveCobble,alongtimeadvocateofreform,says,"disgustwithhow
ithasallplayedoutwillbefreshenough,evenamongcandidatesandconsultants,tocreateanopeningforrealreform."
Knowlesin2008,
AmandaKnowles.[StaffWriter].CongressTacklesNationsPrimaryProblem.AmericanObserver.January23,2008.
http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary2/.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
[Ryan]ODonnell[directorofFairvotespresidentialelectionsreformprogram]isntcertainifreformcouldbeachievedin
timeforthe2012electioncycle,butheishopeful.
If
there
is
ever
a
time
to
do
it,
its
now,
he
said.
Its
never
been
more
chaotic.
No
plan
is
perfect.
With
this
kind
of
thingitsalmostimpossibletoknowwhatwouldbegoodandwhatwouldbebad.Whatwedoknowisthatanything
wouldbeanimprovementoverwhatwehave.
[Ellipsisinoriginal]
[Bracketsinsertedforclarity]
Jacksonin2008,
JohnS.Jackson.[VisitingProfessor,PaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute].PresidentialNominationsandRegionalPrimaries:
AnAnalysisofProposalsforReform.AnOccasionalPaperofthePaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute.Paper#9.January2008.
p.13.http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf.AccessedFebruary11,2008.
Thetimetoactisnow,atleastin2008andpreferablyintimeforthenationalconventionsofbothpartiestobeheldin
Augustand
September
of
2008.
The
plans
adopted
then
could
be
made
applicable
to
the
2012
cycle,
and
they
would
not
clearlybeadoptedwiththedirectinterestsofanycurrentcandidateinmind.Afterthenewruleshavebeeninplacefor
oneelection,theywillbecomemuchmoreneutralandmuchmorerationalthanthecollectionofstatelawsandnational
partyruleswhichdeterminesthesequenceandoutcomesnow.Democracyisalwaysgoingtobesomewhatmessy,but
theelectoralrulesofthegamecanstrivetobeasrational,transparentandneutralaspossible.Asanationweshouldact
withthoseobjectivesinmind.
Knowlesin2008,
AmandaKnowles.[StaffWriter].CongressTacklesNationsPrimaryProblem.AmericanObserver.January23,2008.
http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary2/.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Thetimeisripeforreform,[Ryan]ODonnell[directorofFairvotespresidentialelectionsreformprogram]said.
Likeeverything
else
in
our
democracy,
it
is
aquestion
of
whether
were
going
to
move
forward
by
expanding
our
voting
policies,hesaid,comparingthesituationtowomenssuffrageandthemovementtowinblackstherighttovote.Hesaid
thecurrentsystemeffectivelyshutsoutportionsofthecountrywithlaterprimariesfromhavinganyvoice.Thisisdis
criminationbasedongeography,andinthemostimportantelectionwehave.
[Bracketsinsertedforclarity]
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheCurrentPrimarySystemViolatesDemocraticPrinciples.
Schererin2007,
MichaelScherer.[WashingtonCorrespondent].ThePresidentialPrimaryScam.Salon.com.October8,2008.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
It'sfarworsethanyouthinkworsethanhangingchads,faultyDieboldmachines,andbillionaireswhobankrolllast
minuteattackads.TheAmericansystemfornominatingapresidentialcandidatehasaboutasmuchincommonwithac
tualdemocracyasDonaldDuckhaswithalakemallard.It'snotjustthatthisyear'sprimarieshavebeenfurtherfront
loaded,orthattheearlyprimarystatesaren'trepresentativeofthenationatlarge.Thereisonlypassingfairness.Thereis
onlythesemblanceoforder.Thereisnothinglikeequalrepresentationunderthelaw.
Thewholestinkingprocesswasdesignedbydeadmeninsmokyparlorsandrefinedbyfacelessbureaucratsinhotelcon
ferencerooms.Itisanastybrewbornofthosecaldronsofselfinterestknownaspoliticalparties.Ateverystage,advan
tageisparceledoutlikesomuchmagicpotion."Thenationalinterestisnotconsideredinanyform,"saysUniversityof
VirginiapoliticalscientistLarrySabato."Everythingisleftuptoanadhocdecision.It'schaotic."
Riley
in
2008,
KateRiley.[StaffColumnist].SpreadingtheCandidateLove.TheSeattleTimes.February4,2008.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2004159425_riley04.html.AccessedFebruary4,2008.
Thestatusquosureisn'tworkingforWashingtonstate.With24statesparticipatinginthisweek'sSuperTuesdayprimary,
themajorityofthenationalreadywillhaveweighedinonthepresidentialracesbythetimeWashingtonvotersgetasay.
Statepartyleaders,incahootswithsomeelectedofficials,havedonealmosteverythingtheycantomakesureWashing
ton'sFeb.19primarymattersaslittleaspossible.Thepartiesaretryingtokeepanironfistonparticipationinthecandi
dateselectionforpartybuildingpurposes.
Ifyou'reaDemocrat,theonlychanceyouwillhavetogetasayisifyouletyourlaundrypileupandskipyourkids'basket
ballgameonSaturdaytoattendoneoftheparty'scaucuses.ThestateDemocraticPartyisallocatingallofitsdelegates
basedonresultsofitssuretobesparselyattendedcaucuses.
ThemoremagnanimousstateGOPwillallocatehalfofitsdelegatesbasedoncaucusresultsandtherestontheprimary.
Talkaboutaridiculouswaytoselectcandidates.Letmerevisitoneimpressivestatistic.In2000,thelastyearWashington
hadapresidentialprimary,1.3millioncitizensvoted.(Thestatecanceledtheprimaryin2004becauseofbudgettroubles.)
Bycomparison,thepartiesreportedonly60,000participatedinthecaucuses.
Proffittin2000,
WaldoProffitt.[FormerEditoroftheHeraldTribune].MissedOpportunityForDemocracy.HeraldTribune.com.August
10,2007.http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767 .
AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Sadly,
it
is
a
system
that
denied
most
Republicans
and
most
Democrats
a
voice
in
the
selection
of
their
party's
nominee
for
president,andasystemwhichrequiressuccessfulcandidatestoraisevastamountsofmoney,enhancestheroleofexpen
sivetelevisionadvertising,andencouragesgenerouscampaigncontributionsbyspecialinterestgroupswhoexpectto
havetheirinvestmentreturnedmanyfold,andareseldomdisappointed.
Theprimarysystem,whichwasdevisedinanefforttodecreaseinfluenceofpartybossesandincreaseparticipationof
rankandfilemembers,hasbeenpervertedinrecentyears.Ithasbecomearealthreattoourabilitytopreservegovern
mentbythepeople.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2004159425_riley04.htmlhttp://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2004159425_riley04.htmlhttp://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
12/147
Copyright2008,PFDebateLLC 12
PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheCurrentPrimarySystemViolatesDemocraticPrinciples.
Mayer&Thaiin2007,
KevinMayer&Xuan Thai.[CNN].SenatorsSeekReformofPresidentialPrimarySystem.CNNPoliticalTicker.
July31,2007.http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senatorsseekreformofpresidentialprimarysystem/.
AccessedFebruary
2,
2008.
Theguidingprincipleofourdemocracyisthateverycitizenhastheopportunitytochoosehisorherpoliticalleaders,
said[SenatorJoseph]Lieberman.Butthesadtruthisthisprinciplenolongerbearsaresemblancetotherealityofanin
creasinglycompressedandarbitrarypresidentialprimarysystem.
[Bracketsinsertedforclarity]
Nicholsin2008,
JohnNichols.[WashingtonCorrespondent,TheNation].TheMadMoneyPrimaryRace.TheNation.January3,2008.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Wang
points
out
that
the
current
problems
cannot
be
ignored
by
those
who
would
repair
our
political
system.
"Like
other
issuesthatthevotingandcivilrightscommunitiesdevoteattentionto,theflawsintheprimaryprocesspresentaserious
challengetofairandequitablerepresentation,"shesays."Nowthattheprimariesareanexpectedandimportantpartof
thepresidentialelectionsystem,reformgroups[needtostartaddressing]theminaccordancewiththesamedemocratic
principlesastheydoforgeneralelections."
[Bracketsinoriginal]
Marquseein2008,
MikeMarqusee.[AuthorandSocialJusticeActivist].TimeToUpgrade.TheHinduMagazine.January13,2008.
http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/mag/2008/01/13/stories/2008011350060300.htm. AccessedFebruary2,2008.
TheworldlooksonattheU.S.presidentialprimarieswithamixofhopesandfears,andnotalittlebemusement.
TheroadtotheWhiteHouseisserpentine,itscourselaidoutbyanamalgamoffederalandStatelaw,constitutionalinter
pretationbythecourts,partyregulations,custom,andmediaimperatives.Inthehorseracethatensues,presentationand
positioningeasilytrumppolicy.Asadramaticspectacle,theprimariescanproviderichentertainment;butasacoherent
democraticprocess,theyarewanting.
Forastart,thewholethingrestsonanarithmeticofapplesandpears.InsomeStates,onlyregisteredDemocratsandRe
publicanmaytakepartintheirrespectiveprimaryelections.Inothers,independentsmaychoosewhichpartyprimary
theywishtovotein.Inyetothers,anyonemayvoteineitherprimary,regardlessofwhichpartytheyareregisteredwith.
Stillothersdonothaveprimariesbutcaucuses,which,unliketheothers,arenotsecretballots.
Thentheresthestaggeredschedule.IowaandNewHampshirecomefirst,andmaywinnowoutcontendersandmakeor
break
insurgents.
Yet
they
are
States
with
small
and
unrepresentative
populations,
disproportionately
rural
and
white.
A
smallelectorateendsupmakingverybigdecisions,whileamuchlargeronewatchesandwaits.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/mag/2008/01/13/stories/2008011350060300.htmhttp://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/mag/2008/01/13/stories/2008011350060300.htmhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
13/147
Copyright2008,PFDebateLLC 13
PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheCurrentPrimarySystemViolatesDemocraticPrinciples.
Ramosin2008,
MatiasRamos.[StaffWriter].EarlyBirdPrimariesAnd CaucusesGetTheWormButUndermineDemocracy.
TheDailyBruin.January10,2008.
http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearlybird
primaries
and
caucuses
get
worm
under/.
AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Infact,forallthepompousrhetoricaboutequaltreatmentandourmanifestresponsibilitytospreaddemocracyacross
theglobe,ourownbrandofelectoralpolicycomesupshortingivingallcitizensanequalsay.
KnightandSchiffusedastatisticalmodelthatsuggeststhatiftheorderoftheprimarieshadbeendifferentin2004,John
EdwardswouldhavebeentheDemocraticcandidate.
Quainin2008,
TonyQuain.[FreelanceWriter].RidiculousPrimarySystem.TonyQuain.com.January30,2008.
http://www.tonyquain.com/blog/index.php/b/2008/01/30/unreasonable_primary_system.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Inthisexcitingandtumultuouspresidentialelectionyear,agreatinjusticeisclosingitsgripontheAmericanpoliticalproc
ess.Theelectoralcollegeissomethingofananachronism,sure.Andexcessivelitigationthreatenstomovedemocracy
fromtheballotboxtothecourtroom.Andvotingmachinesinsomestateshavetheirflaws.Buttheseissuesonlymakea
differenceinverycloseelectionsonceeveryhundredyearsorso.Thegreatinjusticeofourpresidentialelectionprocess,
onethatfewcanhavefailedtowitnessthispastmonth,isthetrulyridiculousandunfairsystemofpartyprimariesand
caucuses.Thissystemfailstoelectthebestcandidatefromoneorbothpartiesalmosteverytime.Andthisyearisnoex
ception.
Schererin2007,
MichaelScherer.[WashingtonCorrespondent].ThePresidentialPrimaryScam.Salon.com.October8,2008.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Otherspoint
out
that
the
current
outrages
are
far
less
severe
than
the
smoke
filled
rooms
of
old,
which
nominated
candi
dateslikeWarrenG.Harding.Only37percentofdelegateswereselectedthroughprimariesin1912,comparedwith79
percentin1996.Asrecentlyas1968,HubertHumphreywontheDemocraticnominationwithouthavingruninanyofthe
party'sprimaryelections.Butpastfailuresdonotexcusethecurrentones.Eitherthenation'spoliticalpartiesbelievein
theidealsofthenation,ortheydonot.Theyshouldbeforcedtodecide.
http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://www.tonyquain.com/blog/index.php/b/2008/01/30/unreasonable_primary_systemhttp://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/http://www.tonyquain.com/blog/index.php/b/2008/01/30/unreasonable_primary_systemhttp://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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Copyright2008,PFDebateLLC 14
PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheTopicFocusesOnTheWrongIssue;EveryoneAgreesThereIsAProblem.
Knowlesin2008,
AmandaKnowles.[StaffWriter].CongressTacklesNationsPrimaryProblem.AmericanObserver.January23,2008.
http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary2/.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Numerousreformproposalshavebeenmadeovertheyears,butasofyet,nonehavebeenseriouslyconsidered.Re
spondingtothecurrentsituation,however,legislators,nationalparties,andthepublicarespeakingoutforchange.The
problemistheycantseemtoagreeonhowbesttogoaboutit.
Everyoneisunhappy,butnoonestatecandoanythingaboutit,saidJonathanSiegel,seniorlegislationfellowforKlobu
char.
Cookin2004,
RhodesCook.[FormerPoliticalWriterforCongressionalQuarterly;ContributingEditorforPublicPerspective].
ThePresidentialNominatingProcess:APlaceForUs?Lanham,MD: Rowman&LittlefieldPublishers.2004.p.135.
Hardly
anyone
is
a
fan
of
the
current
presidential
nominating
process.
The
feedback
one
hears
is
sometimes
colorful,
nearlyalwayscritical,andrangesfromasenseofexasperationtohopelessnessthattheprocesscaneverbechangedfor
thebetter.
Whenaskedaboutthecurrentprocess,longtimepoliticalobserversoftenrespondwithcommentsthatarepungent
andstarklynegative.Itsnuts...Itsawful... Itisamindlessdash...Itdefiesrationality...Ithaschangedforthe
worse...Itisbeyondfixing,arejustsomeoftheprintableresponsesthatthisauthorhasheard.
[Ellipsesinoriginal]
Cronin&Loevyin1994,
ThomasE.Cronin[President,WhitmanCollege]andRobertD.Loevy[ProfessorofPoliticalScience,ColoradoCollege].
YESItIsTimeForANewPresidentialNominatingProcess.InControversialIssuesinPresidentialSelection,editedby
GaryL.
Rose.
Albany:
State
University
of
New
York
Press.
1994.
p.
28.
Fewpeople,withthepossibleexceptionsofRonaldReagan,BillClinton,andEverettLadd,seemhappywiththepresent
nominatingsystemespeciallythepatchworkymazeofpresidentialprimaries.Theprocessstrainspatienceandelimi
natesmanygoodcandidates.Thecurrentprimarysystemplainlyfavorswellheeledindividualswhocandevotetheirfull
attentiontoselectedearlystatenominatingbattles.
http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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Copyright2008,PFDebateLLC 15
PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingDefined.
Mayerin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer.[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity].FrontloadingthePrimaries:
TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.Accessed
February
9,
2008.
Frontloadingisthetrendinwhichbeginninginabout1980,moreandmorestatesscheduledtheirprimariesandcaucuses
nearthebeginningofthedelegateselectionseason.
Proffittin2000,
WaldoProffitt.[FormerEditoroftheHeraldTribune].MissedOpportunityForDemocracy.HeraldTribune.com.August
10,2007.http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767 .
AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Theworstabuseofthesystemhasbeenthegrowthofwhatiscalled"frontloading,"therushofstatestoholdtheirpri
mariesasearlyaspossibleandthusincreasetheirimpactontheprocessandtheamountofattentionpaidtothembythe
national
press.
In2000,thenomineesofbothmajorpartieswereeffectivelydeterminedbyMarch7,thedateagaggleofstates,including
Florida,heldtheirprimaries.Votersinstateswithlaterprimaries,includingCaliforniaandNewYork,hadlittleincentiveto
vote.And,byandlarge,theydidn't.
That'sbadenough,butthefrontloadingrequiredthatcandidateshavesubstantialwarchestsreadybytheendof1999.
Theyhadtobeabletowageexpensivemediacampaignsinseveralstatesearlyintheyear.
TheBrookingsInstitutionin2004,
EventSummary:FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,
2004.http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Onthe
eve
of
the
official
start
of
the
2004
presidential
campaign,
aBrookings
panel
of
experts
discussed
the
cascading
primaryandcaucussystemthathasshortenedthenominationprocesstoasprint.Thisphenomenonknownas"front
loading"occurredwhenanincreasingnumberofstates,beginningin1980,beganschedulingtheirprimariesandcaucus
closertothebeginningofthedelegateselectioncalendar.
"Whereoncetheprimaryseasonstartedupveryslowly,nowitbeginsveryrapidly,"saidpanelistWilliamG.Mayer,an
associateprofessoratNortheasternUniversity.
Stateprimariesandcaucuseswereonceconductedoverthreetofourmonths;primaryfrontloadinghascondensedthe
nominationprocesstofourorfiveweeks.Intheirnewbook,TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations
(BrookingsInstitutionPress),MayerandcoauthorAndrewE.Busch,anassociateprofessorattheUniversityofDenver,
showthatin1976only19percentofalldelegateshadbeenselectedbythesixthweekoftheprimaryseason.Currently,
58
percent
will
have
been
selected
by
then,
and
72
percent
by
the
seventh
week.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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Copyright2008,PFDebateLLC 16
PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingIsCausedByNewHampshireEnvy.
Mayerin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer.[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity].FrontloadingthePrimaries:
TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.Accessed
February
9,
2008.
Whyhasthischangetakenplace?Whyhavesomanystatesmoveduptheirprimariesandcaucuses?Well,aswesayin
thebook,thesingleproximatecauseoffrontloadingisaphenomenonthatwecalledNewHampshireenvy.
NewHampshireenvy,asitsnameprobablyimplies,istheperceptionthatNewHampshiregetsanenormousrangeof
benefitsbyholdingthefirstprimaryineveryelectioncycleandthatotherstateswillbenefitiftheytoocanholdtheirpri
maries,ifnotexactlyinthesameweekasNewHampshireNewHampshirewillmakeitsbesteffortstomakesurethat
doesntoccurthenatleastasclosetothestartoftheprocessaspossible.
TheBrookingsInstitutionin2004,
EventSummary:FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.
January
14,
2004.
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.
Accessed
February
9,
2008.
Mayerattributesthefrontloadingtrendto"NewHampshireenvy,"namedafterthenation'sfirstprimarystate.This
year'sNewHampshireprimarywilltakeplaceonJanuary27.
"NewHampshireenvy,"saidMayer,"referstotheperceptionthatNewHampshiregetsanenormousrangeofbenefitsby
holdingthefirstprimaryineveryelectioncycle,andthatotherstateswillbenefitifthey,too,canholdtheirprimariesas
closetothestartoftheprocessaspossible."
Accordingtothebook'sauthors,stateswithearlyprimariesenjoysuchbenefitsasprominentpresscoverage,richatten
tionfromcandidates,heavyanddisproportionateinfluenceonthenominationrace,economicbenefitsfromcampaign
andmediaspending,freepublicityforstatebusinessesandresorts,andspecialpolicyconcessionslikediscretionary
spendingandfavorablebureaucratictreatment.
Mayer&Buschin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity]andAndrewE.Busch[Associate
ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.
WashingtonDC:BrookingsInstitutionPress.2004.p.23.
Asthehistoryandanalysispresentedinchapter2hasshown,thesingleproximatecausethatliesbehindmostrecent
stateschedulingdecisionsisaphenomenonbestdescribedasNewHampshireenvy.Insimpleterms,NewHampshire
envyistheperceptionthatNewHampshire,becauseitholdsthefirstprimaryinthenation,derivesasubstantialarrayof
politicalandeconomicbenefitsfromthatpositionandplaysahighlysignificantroleindeterminingwhoultimatelywins
themajorpartypresidentialnominations,despitethefactthatitisasmallstateandis,inimportantways,notparticularly
representativeofthecountryasawhole.AsmoreandmorestatesbecameawareofalltheadvantagesaccruingtoNew
Hampshire
and
after
1976,
to
Iowa
as
well
they,
too,
naturally
came
to
believe
that
it
would
be
to
their
benefit
either
tovoteonthesamedayasNewHampshireor,ifthatwerenotpossible,atleasttoscheduletheirprimaryorcaucus
somewherenearthestartofthedelegateselectioncalendar.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.The2008PrimarySeasonIsTheMostFrontLoadedInU.S.History.
Stearnsin2007,
MattStearns.[McClatchyNewspapers].CanBrokenPrimarySystemBeFixed?McClatchyWashingtonBureau.
September25,2007.http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.html .AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Theproblemsofthecurrentprimaryandcaucusnominationgamearewelldocumented:It'stoofast,tooexpensiveand
eachelectioncycleisacceleratingtheabsurdity.Plus,IowaandNewHampshire,twoidiosyncraticearlyvotingpower
housesthatbarelyreflecttherestofthecountry,playanoutsizedroleinthiselectoral"Survivor."
Thestillunsettled2008primaryscheduleistheworstoneyet:Withstatesleapfroggingoneanothertogaininfluenceand
attention,neitherIowanorNewHampshirehasformallyscheduleditsvote,whichbothstatesaredeterminedwillremain
firstandsecond,comewhatmay.
Thischaoticsystemencouragesstatestojockeyforpositionandleadstoovercrowdedprimarydays,forcingcampaignsto
relyonbarragesofnegativeads,expensivetelevisionbuysandquickflyinsratherthanengaginginsubstantivediscus
sionswithvotersonestateatatimeovermanymonths.
Graysonin2007,
TreyGrayson.[KentuckySecretaryofState.CoChair,NASSSubcommitteeonPresidentialPrimaries].
TestimonyBeforetheU.S.SenateRulesCommittee.September19,2007.
http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdf.AccessedFebruary8,2008.
The2008presidentialnominatingscheduleisthemostfrontloadedinU.S.history.Thirtyfivestatesarealreadyontrack
tovoteinJanuaryorFebruarymorethanthreetimesthenumberthathaddonesoin2000andthatnumbercould
growbyatleasttwoorthreemore.
Altschulerin2008,
BruceE.Altschuler.[ProfessorofPoliticalScience,SUNYOswego].SelectingPresidentialNomineesbyNationalPrimary:
AnIdeaWhoseTimeHasCome?TheForum.5(4).2008.p.2.http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/.
AccessedFebruary
9,
2008.
Frontloadingin2008promisestobeevenworse,despitepartyrulesprohibitingprimariesexceptforNewHampshireand
allbutafewspecificallyexemptedcaucusesbeforeFebruary5.Itbeganwhenabout20states,includingNewYorkand
California,scheduledtheirprimariesonthefirstallowabledateofFebruary5,makingitlikelythatthe2008nominees
wouldbedeterminedamonthearlierthaneven2000and2004.ThenFloridabroketherulesbyschedulingaJanuary29
primary.Inordertocontinuetobefirstintheirregion,SouthCarolinaRepublicansapprovedholdingtheircaucusesearlier
thantheoriginaldateofJanuary29.ThechainreactionledtoIowacaucusesonJanuary3,followedfivedayslaterbythe
NewHampshireprimary.Ifthistrendcontinues,wemightseepreChristmasvotesin2011.
Jacksonin2008,
JohnS.Jackson.[VisitingProfessor,PaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute].PresidentialNominationsandRegionalPrimaries:
An
Analysis
of
Proposals
for
Reform.
An
Occasional
Paper
of
the
Paul
Simon
Public
Policy
Institute.
Paper
#9.
January
2008.
p.2.http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf.AccessedFebruary11,2008.
The20072008presidentialnominationsseasonwillgodownintherecordbooksasthelongest,themostexpensive,the
mostfrontloaded,themostdebated,themostunpredictableandthemostcontentiouspresidentialnominationscontest
inAmericanhistory.Partofthereasonforthescopeanddepthofthehighlypublicconflictwasthefactthatthiswasthe
firsttimesince1952whenasittingpresidentorvicepresidentwasnotaseriouscontenderforthenominationofoneof
thetwomajorparties.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.htmlhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdfhttp://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdfhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.html8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.The2008PrimarySeasonIsTheMostFrontLoadedInU.S.History.
Knowlesin2008,
AmandaKnowles.[StaffWriter].CongressTacklesNationsPrimaryProblem.AmericanObserver.January23,2008.
http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary2/.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
The2008presidentialprimaryseasonisshapinguptobethemostchaoticinhistory,expertssay.Statesaretakingpartin
amaddashtothefrontofthescheduleinanefforttomaximizetheirinfluence,breakingpartyrulesandfacingpenalties
alongtheway.Inresponse,Congresshastakenthematterintoitsownhands,proposingreformlegislationandleaving
somequestioningwhethergovernmentinterventionisconstitutional.
Themajorproblemwiththecurrentsystemisthestrangleholdthatasmallnumberofstateshaveontheselectionofour
presidentialcandidates,saidLibbyBenton,legislativeassistanttoRep.SanderLevin,DMich.Thisyearespeciallyisa
goodexampleofhowfrontloaded,franticanddisorganizedtheprimarysystemcanbe.
Klobucharin2007,
AmyKlobuchar.[U.S.Senator,DMinnesota].SenatorKlobucharPushesSolutiontoEndPrimaryArmsRace.
US
Fed
News.
September
19,
2007.
LexisNexis.
Accessed
February
8,
2008.
Thislegislationwouldnottakeeffectuntil2012,buttheprimaryseasonnowunderwayshowswhythisreformisneeded:
Inthe2008primaryseason,atleast26stateswillholdprimariesorcaucusesbythefirstTuesdayinFebruaryahuge
increasefromthe9primariesheldbythefirstTuesdayinFebruary,whichwascalled"SuperTuesday,"inthe2004primary
cycle.
Now19statesareholdingprimariesorcaucusesonthefirstTuesdayofFebruaryin2008,asyounotedMadamChairman.
Manystateshavefeltforcedtomovetheirprimariesuptothisdateforfearofbeing"leftoutinthecold"iftheywaitany
longer.
Jacksonin
2008,
JohnS.Jackson.[VisitingProfessor,PaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute].PresidentialNominationsandRegionalPrimaries:
AnAnalysisofProposalsforReform.AnOccasionalPaperofthePaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute.Paper#9.January2008.
p.13.http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf.
AccessedFebruary11,2008.
Asapeople,Americanstypicallydonotactonfundamentalchangeuntilthereisacrisis.Inmyview,theUnitedStates
shouldnowbeconsideredtobeincrisiswiththemesswevecreatedin2007 2008.Ifthiswereabananarepublic,theU.
S.StateDepartmentwouldlookdownitsnoseandsniffabouttheinadequacyofthesystemwehave.Itistimeforthe
UnitedStatestoactlikeamaturedemocracyandtoadmitthatournominationsprocedurescanbeimproveduponand
thatthereisacompellingnationalinterestindoingsomethingtoaddresstheveryrealshortcomingsofthepracticeswe
havenowwhicharetheproductofnothinglargerthantheparochialinterestsofafewstatesandtheirmostactiveand
articulate
groups.
There
are
many
plans
which
have
been
advocated
which
are
worthy
of
consideration
and
which
should
beapartofthenationaldialogue.
http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
19/147
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingGetsWorseWithEachElection.
Wangin2007,
TovaAndreaWang.[DemocracyFellowatTheCenturyFoundation].ThePresidentialPrimarySystemsDemocracy
Problems.TheCenturyFoundation.IssueBrief.March12,2007.p.1.
http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf.Accessed
February
2,
2008.
Frontloadinghasincrementallyevolvedsincetheprimarysystembeganinearnestin1968.Eachelectioncycle,more
contestshavebeenheldearlierasstateshavetriedtooutmaneuvereachotherforattentionandinfluence.Theparties
haveattemptedtoholdbackthatscramble,buttolittleavail.In1972,17percentofthedelegateswerecommittedtoa
candidatebymidApril;in1976,33percentofdelegateswerecommittedbythattime;in1980,44percent;in1984,57.4
percent.In1992,halfthedelegateshadbeenallocatedbytheendofMarch.In1996,byMarch12,54percentofthe
pledgeddelegateshadbeenallocated.In2000,byMarch14,twothirdsofthedelegateshadbeenallocated.In2004,by
thesecondTuesdayinMarch,71.4percentofthedelegateswerecommittedtoacandidate.1Toputitanotherway,in
1980,onlyonestatehadaprimaryorcaucusbytheendofFebruary;in2000,ninestatesdid;andin2004,nineteenstates
heldcontestsbythattime.
Nichols
in
2008,
JohnNichols.[WashingtonCorrespondent,TheNation].TheMadMoneyPrimaryRace.TheNation.January3,2008.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Frontloadingisnotanentirelynewphenomenon.Sincethemodernprimarysystemcameintobeingin1968and1972,
notesTovaWang,aDemocracyFellowwiththeCenturyFoundation,"stateshavetriedtooutmaneuvereachotherfor
attentionandinfluence"while"thepartieshaveattemptedtoholdbackthatscramble."Asthe2008processtookshape,
however,anysemblanceoforderwaslost.WhatUniversityofVirginiapoliticalscientistLarrySabatoreferstoas
"schedulinginsanity"tookhold.Withthekeyplayersawarethatpartyconventionsarelittlemorethantheatricalproduc
tions,stateofficialsseekingtoleapaheadofschedulesestablishedbypartychieftainsnolongertookseriouslythreatsby
thenationalcommitteestodockdelegatesfromthesummersessions.Besides,thestartinggatejumperscalculated,the
eventualnomineeswouldinvariablyallowseatingofdelegationsfromstateswheretheymustcompeteinNovember.So
Michigan,FloridaandotherstatessetJanuaryprimaryandcaucusdates,forcingIowaandNewHampshireofficialstode
fendtheir
franchises
by
moving
close
to
Christmas.
"It'sawful,"saysGwenCarr,aformerDemocraticNationalCommitteestaffer."Noonecanmakeanysenseofitexcept
theinsiders,andeventheyarehavingtrouble."
http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdfhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingHasResultedInADeFactoNationalPrimary.
CenterforPolitics&PublicAffairsin2007,
CenterforPolitics&PublicAffairs.Franklin&MarshallCollege.AmericasHitorMissPrimarySystem.March23,2007.
http://www.fandm.edu/x14232.xml .AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Aspressuresbuiltupinstatesvotinglate,"delegatecreep"setin;statesonebyonefrontloadedtheprocessandmoved
theirprimariesearlierandearlier.
Increasingly,theconsequenceofthefuriousfrontloadingtrendbecameapparent.Presidentialnominationsnowreliedon
ahodgepodgeofhaphazardprimariesandcaucusesinbothpartiesthateffectivelyendedcompetitionbymidMarch.Any
statechoosingdelegatesafterMarchwasholdingameaninglesscontest.
Nowin2007,thedamhasfinallybrokenasstatesrushpellmelltojointhedelegatehunt.Therushtofrontloadthedele
gateselectionprocesshasproduceditsultimatedenouement;sometwentyfivestateswithmorethanhalfthenational
populationarelikelytomovetheirprimarydatestoFebruary5.
Some
commentators
have
referred
to
the
impending
February
elections
as
a
"national
primary,"
but
if
its
a
national
pri
mary,itsoneinwhichhalfthestateswillbeAWOL.Itcouldmoreaccuratelybecalledthe"hitormissprimary,"with
morethan40%ofthepopulationeffectivelydisenfranchised.
Graysonin2007,
TreyGrayson.[KentuckySecretaryofState.CoChair,NASSSubcommitteeonPresidentialPrimaries].TestimonyBefore
theU.S.SenateRulesCommittee.September19,2007.
http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdf.AccessedFebruary8,2008.
SomecommentatorshavenotedthatwewillhaveadefactonationalprimarytakingplaceonFebruary5,withtwenty
statesvotingincludinglargepopulationstatessuchasCalifornia,Illinois,NewYork,andNewJersey.Butifyouthinkofit
thatway,itwillbeanationalprimaryinwhichroughlyhalfofournationsvoterswillhavenovoice.Statesholdingtheir
primariesinMarchorlaterarelikelytobecountingmeaninglessvotes.
http://www.fandm.edu/x14232.xmlhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdfhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdfhttp://www.fandm.edu/x14232.xml8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
21/147
Copyright2008,PFDebateLLC 21
PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingDecreasesDiscussionAndDebate.
Nicholsin2008,
JohnNichols.[WashingtonCorrespondent,TheNation].TheMadMoneyPrimaryRace.TheNation.January3,2008.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Justasgoverningsuffers,sotoodoespolitics."Concludingthenominationprocessinthewinterforallintentsandpur
posesleavestheparties'nomineesinwaiting,andvoterswithavacuumformanymonths,untiltheconventionsinthe
latesummer,"explainsWang."Thatgaptendstoinducetheanointedcandidatestofocusonraisingprivatemoneywhile
thepublic'sattentionsubsides,reducingtheamountoftimethatmightbemoreproductivelydevotedtodebatingthe
majorissues."
Wangin2007,
TovaAndreaWang.[DemocracyFellowatTheCenturyFoundation].ThePresidentialPrimarySystemsDemocracy
Problems.TheCenturyFoundation.IssueBrief.March12,2007.p.1.
http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
In
addition
to
the
problems
presented
by
bunching
many
primaries
into
a
small
time
framemaking
it
difficult
for
candi
dateswithrelativelylessfinancialsupporttocommunicatetheirmessagesinamultitudeoflocationsreachinganearly
verdictalsohasdownsides.Concludingthenominationprocessinthewinter,forallintentsandpurposes,leavesthepar
ties,nomineesinwaiting,andvoterswithavacuumforthemanymonthsuntiltheconventionsinthelatesummer.That
gaptendstoinducetheanointedcandidatestofocusonraisingprivatemoneywhilethepublicsattentionsubsides,re
ducingtheamountoftimethatmightbemoreproductivelydevotedtodebatingthemajorissuesconfrontingthenation.
Klobucharin2007,
AmyKlobuchar.[U.S.Senator,DMinnesota].SenatorKlobucharPushesSolutiontoEndPrimaryArmsRace.
USFedNews.September19,2007.LexisNexis.AccessedFebruary8,2008.
Thiscurrent"system"underminesthespiritoftheprimaryprocess.Itturnsourprimariesandcaucusesintoatarmaccam
paign,withcandidatesforcedtopartakeinablitzkriegcampaignstrategyacrosstheentirecountry.
Candidatesflyfromairporttoairportandappearontelevision,butifthiscontinuesthey'llhavelittleopportunityfor
meaningful,targeteddiscussionswithvoters.
Thatmightbesuitableforthelastweekofageneralelectioncampaignbutnotfortheprimariesandcaucuses.
Voterswillalsobeforcedtovoteondateslongbeforetheytraditionallypaidattentiontopresidentialpoliticsandbefore
theymaybereadytodoso.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdfhttp://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdfhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.WithoutReform,FrontLoadingWillContinueToGetWorse.
Nicholsin2008,
JohnNichols.[WashingtonCorrespondent,TheNation].TheMadMoneyPrimaryRace.TheNation.January3,2008.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols.AccessedFebruary2,2008.
Thisyear'snominationprocessistroublesomeonmanylevels.Andtheneedtocleanitupisanurgentiflittleunderstood
corollarytothecurrentcontest.It'stoolatetofix2008,butnowisthetimetogetseriousaboutrepairingtheprocess.
Everyengagedobserveragreesthatifreformsarenotimplemented,thefrontloadingwillonlyspeedupin2012,asstates
breaktheNewYear'sbarrierandcreateaschedulethatcouldseedelegateselectionbeginayearbeforethepartynomi
neesfaceoff.
Mayerin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer.[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity].FrontloadingthePrimaries:
TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
What
I
think
is
distinctive
about
front
loading
is
that
unlike
most
of
the
other
problems
associated
with
the
contemporary
nominationprocess,frontloadingprobablyhasntrunitscourseyet.
Mostoftheotherproblemshaveprobablyreachedapointofstability.FrontloadingIthinkactually,unlesscorrective
actionistake,willprobablygetworse.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingViolatesDemocraticPrinciples.
TheBrookingsInstitutionin2004,
EventSummary:FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.
January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Mayerworriesthatfrontloadingwasdilutingthedemocraticprocess."Itgreatlycondensesthetimethatvotershaveto
learnaboutthecandidatesandmaketheirdecisions,"hesaid."MostAmericansdon'treallystartpayingattentiontothe
nominationraceuntilthedelegatesarealreadyselected?.Bythetimethenomineeischosen,votersstillwon'thaveany
ideaofwhotheyareorwhothedefeatedcandidatesare."
Corradoin2004,
AnthonyCorrado.[ProfessorofGovernment,ColbyCollege].FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachto
PresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf .
AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Asmanyofyouintheroomwillrecall,whenthiswholepartyreformmovementbeganintheDemocraticparty,theidea
was
to
promote
two
basic
principles:
full
and
meaningful
participation
of
the
party
membership
and
a
system
that
would
fairlyreflectthepreferencesofamajorityofhepartyvotersintheprimariesandcaucuses.
Theideawastocreateaprocessthatwouldencourageparticipationandpromoterepresentation.Whatwehaveseenas
aresultoffrontloadingisaprocessthatiswholeantitheticaltothosetwogoals,becausewehaveaprocessnow,thatin
thebestcase,willdisenfranchisethevotersinatleastathirdofthestatesbecausethedieisalreadycastlongbeforethey
evergottothepolls.
Itsaprocessinwhichyounolongergetanefforttobroadenparticipation,but,rather,acontestthatpushestowards
earlyclosure.
Mannin2004,
ThomasE.Mann.[SeniorFellow,GovernanceStudies,BrookingInstitution].FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrong
Approachto
Presidential
Politics?
Brookings.edu.
January
14,
2004.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Totheextentthatonebelievesthatpresidentialnominationsshouldbedeterminedinsubstantialpartbyengagement
withDemocraticidentifiers,voters,andcaucusparticipants,thenthisfrontloadedsystemhasfailed,inthesensethat
whilesuchvotersandparticipantsinahandfulofstatesareengaged,forthemostpart,theprocessisover,candidates
havewithdrawnbeforemostoftheeventstakesplace.
Stearnsin2007,
MattStearns.[McClatchyNewspapers].CanBrokenPrimarySystemBeFixed?McClatchyWashingtonBureau.
September25,2007.http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.html .AccessedFebruary2,2008.
"The
presidential
nominating
process
is
too
important
to
our
democracy
to
allow
the
pell
mell
scramble
to
continue,"
Sen.
DianneFeinstein,DCalif.,saidatarecentSenatehearingonoverhaulingtheprocess.Sen.LamarAlexander,RTenn.,lik
enedthesystemtoallowingESPN's"SportsCenter"tonametheSuperBowlparticipantsaftertwopreseasongames.
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.htmlhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.htmlhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.OnBalance,FrontLoadingIsBad.
Mayerin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer.[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity].FrontloadingthePrimaries:
TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.Accessed
February
9,
2008.
Thenumberofotherproblemsassociatedwithit,thatIcantalkfurtherabout,butjusttosummarize,frontloadinghas
becomeamajorfeatureofthecontemporarypresidentialnominationprocessandtheresverylittleprospectthatitwill
disappearanytimesoon,anditsconsequences,asIsay,intheopinionofmycoauthorandmyself,arealmostentirely
negative,andifyoustickaround,lateron,Illtellyouperhapsatleastsomegiveyouatleastsomesenseofwhat,ifany
thing,wemightdoaboutit.
Mayer&Buschin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity]andAndrewE.Busch[Associate
ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.Washington
DC:BrookingsInstitutionPress.2004.p.93.
Anyattempttountangletheconsequencesoffrontloadingmustcontendwiththecomplexityofpresidentialnomina
tions,thesmallnumberofcasesfromwhichtodrawconclusions,andthefactthatsomeconsequenceshavealready
manifestedthemselves(forexample,thehighentryfeeandtheeffectivedisenfranchisementofhalfofthestates)while
othersarethusfaronlyhypothetical(thepotentialforrunawaymomentumtonominatealittleknowncontender).Butall
theevidencetodateandalltheconsequencesitisreasonabletoexpectinthefuturearguequitestrongly,inourview,
thattheeffectsoffrontloadingonAmericanpresidentialpoliticsarealmostentirelynegative.Thoughasmallnumberof
argumentshavebeenmadeinfavoroffrontloading,allofthemareflawed,wethink,inavarietyofimportantways.
Waynein2007,
StephenJ.Wayne.[ProfessorofGovernment,GeorgetownUniversity].IsThisAnyWayToRunADemocraticElection?
Washington,DC:CQPress.2007.p.179.
Thatthe
states
that
hold
the
early
caucuses
and
primaries
are
not
representative
of
the
party
as
awhole,
that
the
people
whodoparticipateinthecaucusesandprimariestendtohavethestrongestideologicalorientations,andthatthecandi
dateswhobenefitfromthecurrentsystemtendtobethosewiththegreatestnamerecognition,themostmoney,andthe
mostorganizationalsupportundercutsthedemocraticcharacterofthenominationprocess.Italsocontributestothecyni
cismanddistrustofelectedofficials,politicalparties,andpresidentialcandidatescertainlynotabeneficialresultfor
theparties,theircandidates,theirpartisans,andtheelectorateasawhole.
Altschulerin2008,
BruceE.Altschuler.[ProfessorofPoliticalScience,SUNYOswego].SelectingPresidentialNomineesbyNationalPrimary:
AnIdeaWhoseTimeHasCome?TheForum.5(4).2008.pp.23.http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/.
AccessedFebruary9,2008.
What
has
proven
advantageous
for
states
able
to
increase
the
influence
of
their
voters
has
damaged
the
system
as
a
whole.Eventhoughcampaignsseemlongerthanever,theabbreviatedperiodbetweenthefirstprimariesandtheclinch
ingofthenominationhasleftvotersinadequatetimetolearnaboutthemultiplicityofcandidates.Theamountofmoney
necessaryforacrediblecampaignhasdramatically increasedashastheimportanceofthemedia.Currentequivalentsof
suchdarkhorsecandidatesasMcGovernandCarterlackthetimetobuildonanyearlysuccess.Votersinthelateprimary
statesareeffectivelydisenfranchised.AsRhodesCookhaswritten,onlythebestknown,bestfunded,andbestnet
workedcandidatesstandachancetowin,whereonlyvotersintheearlieststateshaveameaningfulsay,andwherethe
outcomeisdeterminedjustwhenmanyAmericansarebeginningtotuneintowhatishappening.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingDecreasesVoterParticipation.
Mayerin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer.[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity].FrontloadingthePrimaries:
TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.Accessed
February
9,
2008.
Afourthimportanteffectoffrontloadingisitseffectonvoterparticipation.
Beforefrontloadinghaddeveloped,beforeithadgoneveryfar,mostcontestednominationraceslastedatleastinto
earlyJune.Theylastedallthewaytilltheendoftheprimaries.Butasthesystemhasbecomemorefrontloaded,nomina
tionracesnecessarilygetdecidedalotearlier.
In1996,forexample,BobDolehadwonamajorityofhispartysconventiondelegatesbyMarch26th.
In2000,bothGeorgeBushandAlGoreclinchedtheirpartynominationonMarch14th.
So
races
get
settled
very
early
these
days
with
lots
of
states
still
to
hold
their
primaries.
In2000,forexample,25statesheldtheirprimariesafterbothBillBradleyandJohnMcCainhadofficiallyannouncedtheir
withdrawalfromtherace.
Notsurprisingly,thissortofsituationhasamajorimpactonvoterparticipation.
Inboth1996and2000,weestimatethatoncethenominationracesweresettled,voterparticipationratesintheRepubli
cationprimariesdeclinedbybetween35and40percent.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingDisenfranchisesVoters.
TheBrookingsInstitutionin2004,
EventSummary:FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.
January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
AnthonyCorrado,aprofessoratColbyCollegeandavisitingfellowinGovernanceStudiesatBrookings,agreed,saying"we
haveaprocessnowthatinthebestcasewilldisenfranchisethevotersinatleastathirdofthestatesbecausethedie
isalreadycastbeforetheygotothepolls."
Corradosaidthatthis"hyperacceleratedcalendar"hasmadefundraising(andtheexemptionoffederalmatchingfunds)a
moreimportantandcrucialpartofcampaigning,ascandidatesneedtobewellfundedlongbeforetheIowacaucusand
NewHampshireprimary.
"We'vecreatedaprocessthatputsapremiumonwhat[formerTexasRepublicansenator]PhilGrammcalled'thepoliti
cian'sbestfriend:readycash.'"
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingResultsInShallowDecisionMaking.
Mayer&Buschin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity]andAndrewE.Busch[AssociatePro
fessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.WashingtonDC:
BrookingsInstitution
Press.
2004.
p.
63.
Inafrontloadedsystem,inshort,votersareforcedtoreachafinaldecisionabouttheirpartysnextpresidentialnominee
inaremarkablyshortperiodoftime.Theevidencestronglysuggestthattheydosoonthebasisoffairlyshallowandsu
perficialknowledgeaboutmanyofthetopcandidatesandnoknowledgeatallaboutsomemajorcontenders.Equally
important,frontloadingmakesitallbutimpossibleforthevoterstoreconsidertheirinitialjudgmentifnewinformation
becomesavailable.
Mayer&Buschin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity]andAndrewE.Busch[Associate
ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.
WashingtonDC:BrookingsInstitutionPress.2004.pp.5657.
Theprincipalproblemwithfrontloadingisthatitgreatlyacceleratesthevotersdecisionprocessandthusmakesthe
wholesystemlessdeliberative,lessrational,lessflexible,andmorechaotic.Itwillprobablystrikesomereadersasstrange
toseetheAmericanpresidentialnominationprocessdescribedasreachingadecisiontooquickly.Thisis,afterall,asys
teminwhichalmosteveryseriouspresidentialaspirantmustannouncehisorhercandidacyinthelatewinterorearly
springoftheyearprecedingtheelection.(Infact,mostcontendershavebeenlayingthegroundworkfortheircampaigns
formonthsorevenyearsbeforetheofficialannouncementismade.)Evenunsuccessfulpresidentialcandidatesgenerally
spendafullyearonthecampaigntrail.ForeignobserversofAmericanpolitics,particularlythosefromGreatBritain,are
alternatelyamazedanappalledattheextraordinaryamountoftimethatpresidentsandwouldbepresidentsdevoteto
campaigninginsteadofgoverning.
Byanreasonablestandard,Americanpresidentialcampaignsareverylong.Theproblemisthattoomuchofthecam
paigningoccurswhilenoneofthevotersarepayingattentionandtoolittlewhentheyfinallystarttobecomeinterested.
8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingPreventsDarkHorseCandidates.
Altschulerin2008,
BruceE.Altschuler.[ProfessorofPoliticalScience,SUNYOswego].SelectingPresidentialNomineesbyNationalPrimary:
AnIdeaWhoseTimeHasCome?TheForum.5(4).2008.pp.67.http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/.
AccessedFebruary
9,
2008.
Acommonobjectiontoanationalprimaryisthat,unlikethecurrentsystem,alittleknowncandidatesuchasJimmy
Carterwouldbeunabletobuilduponearlysuccessinafewsmallstatestowinthenomination.Thefactthatnearlyall
thosemakingthisargumentgiveCarterastheirprimeexhibitsuggeststhatchangesinthenominationprocessduringthe
pastthirtyyearshavereducedtheforceofthisargument.AsRichardPioushaspointedout,since1980everycontender
(withtheexceptionofKerryin2004)whoeventuallywonamajorpartynominationledthefieldinfundsraisedonDe
cember31oftheyearpriortotheconvention.NorwasKerryadarkhorse,startingthecampaignfarbetterknownthan
thefundraisingleader,HowardDean,whoflamedoutsoquicklythathefinishedwellbehindKerryinbothIowaandNew
Hampshire.
Again,theculpritisfrontloading.SomanyprimariesfollowsoquicklyafterIowaandNewHampshirethattheresimplyis
too
little
time
for
a
dark
horse
to
build
on
an
early
success.
James
Campbell
describes
the
current
situation
well:
The
compressedschedulenowrequirescandidatestoruninalargenumberofstatesatonce,afeatonlyacandidatewitha
largenationalorganizationandlotsofmoneycandowell.Thefrontloadingofprimariesandcaucusespreventslongshot
candidatesfromexploitingearlyvictoriesandgainingmomentum.Ifthecurrentsystemgivesdarkhorsecandidateslittle
ornochance,changingittoanationalprimarywoulddothemnoharm.
Mayerin2004,
WilliamG.Mayer.[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity].FrontloadingthePrimaries:
TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Whattypeofcandidatebenefitsfromfrontloading?Aswedetailinthebook,theressomepossibilitythatgiventheright
setofcircumstances, frontloadingcouldhelpalongshotoraninsurgentcandidate.Butineveryracetodate,theevi
denceis
pretty
clear
that
front
loading
has
benefited
the
front
runner.
Whenthesystemwaslessfrontloaded,candidatescoldconcentratetheirtimeandresourcesonarelativelysmallnum
berofearlystates,andfigurethatiftheydidwellthere,thewouldthenhavetheopportunitytoorganizeandcampaignin
laterstateprimaries.
Today,bycontrast,onceeverycampaignhastobeprepared.ThemomentNewHampshireisover,torun,ineffect,a
fullscalenationalcampaign,tofacesevenprimariesinthenextweekandthirteenmoreinthefourweeksafterthat.
Almostbydefinition,longshotshavetroubledoingthat.Onlyacandidatewhoisalreadywellknownandwellfinanced
canbepreparedtocampaigninsomanystatesitwants.
http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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Corradoin2004,
AnthonyCorrado.[ProfessorofGovernment,ColbyCollege].FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachto
PresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.
AccessedFebruary
9,
2008.
Thishasbecomeaverycashdominatedsystem,notjustafundraisingdominatedsystemasweusetohave,butnowa
cashdominatedsystem,becausethemostimportantthatacandidateneedsislotsofcashonhandthatheorsheisable
tospendinthisearlystageoftheprocess.
Infactcandidatesnow,inadditiontohavingtoorganizeearlyinamultiplenumberofstates,inordertomeetthefiling
deadline,whichinmanycasesgetpushedbackasthecalendargetspushedback;inordertoformtheirdelegateslates,
whichhavealwaysbeenanimportantpartofDemocraticnominatingcontestsandwhichneedtogetdoneinthemonths
ofOctoberandNovemberandDecemberwhenyouretryingtorecruitprominentpeopletobeonyourdelegateslates;
andinadditiontowooingthesuperdelegatesandgettingendorsementsfromstateandlocalpoliticiansnowhavetobe
upandrunningontheairlongbeforeanytraditionalperiod.
Corradoin2004,
AnthonyCorrado.[ProfessorofGovernment,ColbyCollege].FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachto
PresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf .
AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Whatthismeansisthatcandidatesnotonlyhavetofocusalotonfundraising,buttheyalsoseethecashgooutthedoor
veryquickly.
Infactoneofthethingsaboutthisprocessisthatitisincrediblymoneyintensiveatthefrontend.Anywellfundedcandi
dateisgoingtobebudgetingatleast$4millioninIowaalone.Theyregoingtobebudgeting$2millioninNewHampshire.
Sothats$6millionthattheyregoingtobespending,ataminimum,justinthosetwostates.
Withcandidatesnowoptionoutofthepublicfinancingsystem,thatdrivesupthecostsevenmore.
TheBrookingsInstitutionin2004,
EventSummary:FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,
2004.http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Mannsaidthatthecurrentsystemcreatedan"invisibleprimary"duringtheyearleadinguptotheIowacaucusNew
Hampshireprimary.
"Theactivitiesofthecandidatesduringthatyearinraisingmoney,organizinginIowaandNewHampshire,garneringparty
endorsements,tryingoutcampaignthemesandmessages,garneringrespectfromvariousgatekeepersintheprocessare
allexceedinglyimportant,"saidMann.
Mannremindedpanelistsofothercrucialfactorsindeterminingaparty'spresidentialnominee."It'sworthremindingour
selvesthatthebestpredictorofwhowinsthenominationsince1980hasbeenbelieveitornotnotthepollsalone,not
themoney,"hesaid,"butreallysophisticatedmeasuresofpartyendorsements,ofthemajorplayersinthedemocratic
andrepublicanpartywhoaremakingjudgmentsaboutcandidatesduringthisinvisibleprimaryyear."
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingFuelsTheMoneyPrimary.
Corradoin2004,
AnthonyCorrado.[ProfessorofGovernment,ColbyCollege].FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachto
PresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.
AccessedFebruary
9,
2008.
Thistrendtowardearlyadvertisinghasbeensopronounced,Iwouldmakenoteofjustonemorepoint.
Ifyoulookatthetop75mediamarkets,theDemocraticcandidateshadairedalready12,700spotsbythebeginningof
December.SomuchforthenotionthatweshouldwaituntilaftertheChristmasrushtotaketotheair.
Thathasincreasedthefinancialdemandsandcreatedasituationinwhichfrontloadinghasheightenedtheimportanceof
thefirstrealprimaryinmyview,themoneyprimary,andwhatwereseeingisevermoreattentionbeinggiventohow
muchmoneycandidatesraiseasoneoftheirprincipalobjectivemeasuresofsuccessintheyearleadinguptotheelection.
Nolongerdowewaitfortheyearendreportstoseehowthecandidatesweredoing.Itsnowgottentothepointwhere
the
midyear
report
in
the
year
before
the
election,
and
even
the
first
quarter
report,
is
a
matter
of
enormous
attention
thatcanhelplaunchacandidacy.
Liebermanin2007,
JosephLieberman.[U.S.Senator,IConnecticut].RegionalPresidentialPrimaryTestimony.September18,2008.
http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdf.AccessedFebruary8,2008.
Andthereisanotherevenmoreinsidiouseffect:Themoretightlypackedtheprimaryschedule,themorereliantcandi
datesbecomeonlargecampaigndonationsandthepeoplewhogivethem.Thefundraisingprimarythisyearhasalready
eliminatedcandidateswhosimplycouldnotraisesufficientfundsquicklyenoughtobecompetitiveinthefirsttwo
monthsofthepresidentialyear.
Thisisnowayfortheworldsgreatestdemocracytochooseitspresident.
TheBrookingsInstitutionin2004,
EventSummary:FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,
2004.http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.AccessedFebruary9,2008.
Corradosaidthat,giventhefrontloadingprimarycalendarandthetrendtowardsoptingoutofmatchingfunds,"you're
betterofftryingtoraiseasmuchmoneyaspossibleintheyearbeforetheelectionsothatyoucanhaveenoughcashon
handtoforegopublicmatchingfundpaymentsonJanuary1,stillbeabletopayforallofyourtelevisionandcampaigning
inthefrontendoftheyear,andstillofferyourselftheprospectofraisinganunlimitedamountofmoneyduringtheelec
tionyear."
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08
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Graysonin2007,
TreyGrayson.[KentuckySecretaryofState.CoChair,NASSSubcommitteeonPresidentialPrimaries].
TestimonyBeforetheU.S.SenateRulesCommittee.September19,2007.
http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdf.Accessed
February
8,
2008.
Whilewecannotpredictallofthenegativeimpactsofthe2008calendaratthistime,thereareafewoutcomesthatare
alreadyclearfromthefrontloadingtrend:itmakesthepresidentialcampaignsevenlonger,itrequirescandidatestobe
ginrunningevenearlier,itcompelsthemtoraiseevenmoremoneyandtorelyallthemoreonbigmedia,itdrastically
reducestheoddsforlateentreesanddarkhorses,andevenasmorestateslurchforward,itleavesalmostfortypercentof
ourvotingpopulationeffectivel