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2020 Employment Forecasts by Industry and Occupation

Stephen R. Barnes

Associate Director

LSU Division of Economic Development

Summary

• Louisiana projected to grow 13.6% from baseline employment in 2010 to 2020 – 2010-2020 National projected growth is 14.3%– 2008-2018 employment growth is 9.1% for

Louisiana vs. 10.1% for the nation

• 2020 LA employment reaches 2,257,273 – LA employment fell about 2.5% from 2008 to 2010– Current 2018 projection is 2,207,000

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Methodology

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Baseline statistical model using the MicroMatrix software and historical data (846 regional industry forecasts)

Review statistical industry forecastso Economic causes of trends—developed alternate models for all

846 regional industry forecastso Contact Louisiana driver firms and incorporate their comments

—help from Louisiana Health Works Commission, LCA, LMOGA, GBRIA/SLCUC/GNO Business Roundtable, ABC, Inc.

o Incorporate economic development projects and major announcements

Move from industries to occupation using staffing patterns and replacement rates

Review occupational forecasts (3,710 regional occupation forecasts)

Baseline Statistical Models

• Baseline employment data affected by long period of unusual events– Historic declines due to 2005 hurricanes – Recession decreased employment by 2.5% from

2008 to 2010

• Preliminary projections implied no employment growth from 2010 to 2020

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Louisiana Employment

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Employment Trends and the Recession

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New Orleans Population Growing

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Major Economic and Policy Factors

• Rebound from the recession• Population growth• Low price and abundance of natural gas• Oil and gas activity increasing in the Gulf of

Mexico• Demographic influences and Health Reform

impacting the demand for health care services

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LSU Forecasting Overview

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800

01

0000

120

001

4000

160

00

1990 2000 2010 2020year

Industry - General Merchandise StoresRLMA - Baton Rouge

Revised Forecasts

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50

01

00

01

50

02

00

0

1990 2000 2010 2020year

hist_emp lwc_proj

lsu_forecast

NAICS 331000 - Primary Metal ManufacturingRLMA 1 - New Orleans

50

01

00

01

50

02

00

0

1990 2000 2010 2020year

hist_emp MicroMatrix

lsu_forecast

NAICS 331000 - Primary Metal ManufacturingRLMA 1 - New Orleans

Region Summary

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RLMA Region Name2010

EmploymentPreliminar

y 2020Revised

2020

Revised Total

Growth

Revised Percent Growth

1New Orleans 514,666 494,336

580,578

65,912 12.8%

2Baton Rouge 407,947 419,243

474,648

66,701 16.4%

3Houma 96,570 100,786

115,109

18,539 19.2%

4Lafayette 264,273 267,695

303,364

39,091 14.8%

5Lake Charles 112,145 109,557

131,802

19,657 17.5%

6Alexandria 107,446 108,138

120,173

12,727 11.8%

7Shreveport 233,785 232,778

262,431

28,646 12.3%

8Monroe 109,660 107,728

124,384

14,724 13.4%

Top Industries in Total Growth

NAICS Industry Name2010

EmploymentPreliminary

2020Revised

2020

Revised Total

Growth

Revised Percent Growth

722000 Food services and drinking places 139,324 140,655 165,560 26,236 18.8%

621000 Ambulatory health care services 86,048 94,376 109,902 23,854 27.7%

541000 Professional and technical services 79,630 92,536 101,005 21,375 26.8%

622000 Hospitals 106,315 107,213 124,055 17,740 16.7%

561000 Administrative and support services 81,030 83,604 97,309 16,279 20.1%

611000 Educational services 171,521 178,353 187,484 15,963 9.3%

238000 Specialty trade contractors 60,566 61,496 72,607 12,041 19.9%

624000 Social assistance 39,749 43,484 48,776 9,027 22.7%

452000 General merchandise stores 51,692 51,056 60,049 8,357 16.2%

213000 Support activities for mining 39,547 41,654 47,284 7,737 19.6%

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Top Industries in Percent Growth (with 2010 employment greater than 500)

NAICS Industry Name2010

EmploymentPreliminary

2020Revised

2020

Revised Total

Growth

Revised Percent Growth

331000 Primary metal manufacturing 2,350 1,883 3,993 1,643 69.9%

483000 Water transportation 9,387 10,429 12,714 3,327 35.4%

512000Motion picture and sound recording industries 4,195 4,998 5,665 1,470 35.0%

493000 Warehousing and storage 6,921 6,386 9,070 2,149 31.1%

621000 Ambulatory health care services 86,048 94,376 109,902 23,854 27.7%

541000 Professional and technical services 79,630 92,536 101,005 21,375 26.8%

444000Building material and garden supply stores 19,404 19,090 24,294 4,890 25.2%

332000Fabricated metal product manufacturing 15,950 14,270 19,779 3,829 24.0%

324000Petroleum and coal products manufacturing 11,456 11,190 14,203 2,747 24.0%

486000 Pipeline transportation 2,618 2,655 3,230 612 23.4%

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Staffing Patterns

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Staffing Pattern: Other heavy and civil engineering construction

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Growth by Occupation Group

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Summary

• Louisiana projected to grow 13.6% from baseline employment in 2010 to 2020 – 2010-2020 National projected growth is 14.3%– 2008-2018 employment growth is 9.1% for

Louisiana vs. 10.1% for the nation

• 2020 LA employment reaches 2,257,273 – LA employment fell about 2.5% from 2008 to 2010– Current 2018 projection is 2,207,000

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