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10th Anniversary Review Cook et al.Natural disasters and their long-term impacts on the health of communities
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10th Anniversary Review: Natural disasters and their long-term impacts
on the health of communities
Angus Cook,a Jill Watson,b Paul van Buynder,ac Andrew Robertsonc and
Phil Weinsteina
Received 28th August 2007, Accepted 17th December 2007
First published as an Advance Article on the web 9th January 2008
DOI: 10.1039/b713256p
Long-term health impacts in communities that have experienced natural disasters are often
overlooked. Recovery from natural disasters is often a long, drawn-out process. Recovery plans
need to address these interruptions in the return to pre-disaster functioning and make provisions
for addressing ongoing health problems. The following review will examine illness patterns that
may arise, directly or indirectly, in the months and years following a disaster event. The
objectives of the review are: (i) to identify the burden of long-term community ill-health following
natural disaster events; (ii) to evaluate current gaps in the ongoing process of health monitoring
for populations affected by disaster; (iii) to review approaches that would provide ongoing
surveillance of physical and psychosocial ill-health.
Introduction
Natural disasters are extreme environmental events that may
cause substantial morbidity and mortality in the population.1
Some disasters are discrete, relatively infrequent events (such
as earthquakes), whereas others may follow an intermittent or
cyclical pattern, including monsoonal floods, bushfires, and
cyclones. The Southeast Asian tsunami in 2004 was particu-
larly devastating—more than 200 000 were killed worldwide-
and its impacts were largely unpredictable. At the other
extreme, disasters may occur as a long-term and ongoing
process: it may be argued that climate change increasingly
falls into this category, and that this global phenomenon
drives the frequency and intensity of other disaster events
(such as prolonged drought, heatwaves and extreme weather).
Although each of these natural disasters may produce
serious health consequences for victims, it is often the identi-
fication and management of short-term ill-health that captures
most of the attention and resources. In contrast, long-term
health impacts in communities that have experienced natural
disasters are often overlooked. Recovery from natural disas-
ters may be a drawn-out process that does not follow a
predictable path. Ongoing assistance is often required for
long-term physical needs, and adverse impacts on psycho-
social well-being can be protracted. In addition to defined
clinical entities such as post-traumatic stress disorders
(PTSD), many families suffer considerable financial hardship
and social displacement following a disaster event. Recovery
plans need to address these interruptions in the return to pre-
disaster functioning and make provisions for addressing con-
comitant mental health problems. The following review will
examine health issues that may arise, directly or indirectly, in
the months and years following a disaster event. The objectives
of the review are: (i) to identify the burden of long-term
community ill-health following natural disaster events; (ii) to
evaluate current gaps in ongoing health monitoring of popula-
tions affected by disasters; (iii) to review approaches that
would provide surveillance of chronic physical and psychoso-
cial ill-health in these populations.
Long-term health outcomes following natural
disasters
The disease burden following major disaster events ranges
from psychopathology (e.g. depression and generalized anxi-
ety; substance use) to physical injury and systemic illness. The
pathways to such disease events may be direct or indirect, as
will be described in subsequent sections. As Galea (2007)
notes, such illness may become apparent across a spectrum
of community members following a catastrophic event, in-
cluding: people injured during the mass trauma; rescuers;
Dr Angus Cook was born inNew Zealand in 1968. Hereceived his medical degreein 1993 (MBChB, Auckland,New Zealand) and a PhD inpublic heath/epidemiologyfrom Otago University (NZ)in 2007. Currently he is aResearch Fellow at the Schoolof Population Health, TheUniversity of Western Aus-tralia, Perth, Australia. Hiscurrent research interestsencompass environmental
health, spatial modelling of health outcomes, and chronic diseaseepidemiology.
a School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, 35Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009 Australia
bWestern Australian Department of Health, 189 Royal Street, EastPerth, WA 6004 Australia
cHealth Protection Group, Western Australian Department of Health,189 Royal Street, East Perth, WA 6004 Australia
This journal is �c The Royal Society of Chemistry 2008 J. Environ. Monit., 2008, 10, 167–175 | 167
CRITICAL REVIEW www.rsc.org/jem | Journal of Environmental Monitoring
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people who have lost property, belongings or capacity to
sustain a livelihood; families of those injured; and the more
general population who may lie outside the ‘disaster zone’ but
are nonetheless affected in indirect ways by the event.2 The
principal health outcomes, as well as possible pathways to
community health impact and morbidity measures that could
potentially be used to evaluate such endpoints, are summar-
ized in Table 1. These classifications are discussed more fully
in this section, including references to recent reports and
analyses of post-disaster events.
Category A: Chronic disability/pain following physical injury
Natural disasters may result in severe injury. During cyclonic
events, for example, individuals are at risk both from the
destructive winds, which can destroy shelters and leave them
exposed to flying debris, and from storm surges, which have
the potential to raise coastal waters many meters above
normal tide level. Associated heavy rainfall also poses an
immediate threat from flooding. The principal injuries re-
ported after such events include lacerations, blunt trauma,
and puncture wounds, often in the feet and lower extremities.3
Ahern’s 2005 review of flood-related conditions reported
sprains/strains (34%), lacerations (24%), ‘‘other injuries’’
(11%), and abrasions/contusions (11%).4 A follow-up analysis
after Hurricane Iniki in 1992 reported that a total of 1584
injuries were treated compared with 231 injuries treated in the
pre-Iniki period (relative risk = 6.86, 95% CI 5.98–7.87); of
the disaster-related injuries, over half were open wounds.5,6
Similar patterns of injury were observed after the 2004 South
Asia tsunami, with many patients requiring amputation be-
cause of surgical irreparability, delays in care or trauma-
related complications.7 Major head and chest injuries, usually
fatal, crush injuries and peripheral limb injuries are character-
istic of major earthquakes, such as the 2003 Bam and 2005
Kashmir events.8–10
Although many of these injuries are limited and non-dis-
abling, the pathway to recovery may not be complete for many
individuals. Brain injury, amputation or paralysis may require
prolonged rehabilitation and institutional care.11 Orthopedic
services are often limited in less industrialized nations, as are
options for post-surgical management, such as fitting of pros-
theses, physical and occupational therapies, and other pathways
for remobilization and return to work-related activities.8,12 One
year after the Gujarat earthquake of 2001, which killed 13 805
people and left 166 000 injured, many thousands still required
assistance for paraplegia, poorly healed fractures, amputations
and other mobility problems.13 Organ damage may also require
long-term management, such as dialysis after renal crush in-
juries. Following the devastating Armenian earthquake in 1988,
the medical needs of 600 cases of acute renal failure—of which at
least 225 victims required dialysis—created a second catastrophe
described as the ‘‘renal disaster.’’14
Category B: Infectious disease risk
There is ample evidence that natural disasters are linked to
increased rates of infectious disease. However, this is not an
Table 1 Summary and review of post-disaster community health indicatorsa
Pathways to community health impact Measures of community morbidity
Category A: Chronic Initiation of injuries and their sequelae attributable Injury rates attributable to the disaster eventdisability/pain following to disaster event (directly or indirectly e.g. from Use of rehabilitation servicesphysical injury road accidents from infrastructure damage), both Delayed admission for complications of injury or
in the general population and vulnerable groups chronic pain management
Category B: Infectious Delayed biological contamination of water or Cause-specific incidence and mortality ratesdisease risk food sources including vaccine preventable diseases
Rodent, arthropod or other vector proliferation of Notification and admission rates for water- anddisease-causing organisms or disease vectors in food-borne infectious diseasedisrupted environments Notification and admission rates forCollapse of public health services, including mosquito-borne/rodent-borne diseaseimmunization programs
Category C: Chronic Exacerbation of pre-existing chronic disease Cause-specific mortality ratessystemic illness Cardiorespiratory sequelae to psychological Rates of admissions with cardiorespiratory illness
illness (e.g. depression/PTSD) (e.g. COPD and asthma exacerbations;Chronic exposure to toxic agents (e.g. air-borne IHD) and other chronic diseasesparticulates/air toxic/release of material from Rates of admissions with severe reactions orcontaminated sites) poisoning from toxicant exposureCollapse of public health services Other health system utilization data e.g.
prescriptions; family doctor contacts
Category D: Effects of Contamination or loss of food sources Morbidity data, particularly in children andmalnutrition Modification of dietary practice the elderlyand trace element toxicity Suboptimal micronutrient intake, especially in Nutritional surveys
vulnerable populations
Category E: Mental health PTSD/depression/anxiety from psychological or Contacts with mental health servicesoutcomes physical trauma/regional economic Admission for self-injury, depression, anxiety
insecurity/decline in social capital Suicide ratesExacerbation of pre-existing mental health illness Morbidity data for mental health illness
a PTSD = post-traumatic stress disorder; COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; IHD = ischemic heart disease.
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inevitable consequence, and the risk of epidemics after geo-
physical incidents may often be relatively low. The majority of
infections of concern occur during or shortly after the acute
disaster phase. Post-injury complications are an immediate
concern: after the 2004 tsunami, for example, polymicrobial
wound infections were common and contained pathogens
from sea-water, freshwater and soil.15 Injuries with secondary
Gram-negative bacilli and anaerobic infections have been
noted from flying debris arising with tornados and other
high-velocity winds. Tetanus is an associated risk; 106 cases
(including 20 deaths) were described in the early weeks in Aceh
after the Asian tsunami.16
Following cyclonic events and flooding, infections trans-
mitted by the fecal-oral route are a risk in the short-to
intermediate term. For example, Hurricane Mitch in 1998
caused a documented increase in the frequency of acute
diarrheas in the post-disaster population of Nicaragua.17
The 2004 floods in Bangladesh resulted in more than
17 000 confirmed cases of enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli,
Vibrio cholerae, Shigella spp and other enteric pathogens
in one treatment centre,18 with those affected by milder
diarrhea in the overall population estimated to be far greater.
Other fecally transmitted pathogens, such as hepatitis A and
E, Salmonella typhi and Salmonella enterica serotype Para-
typhi A (typhoid and paratyphoid fever, as occurred in
Mauritius in 1980 and in Indonesia in 1992, respectively)
and Cryptosporidium parvum have all been documented in
the wake of natural disasters.19,20 Slightly delayed clinical
problems may arise because of indirect or unanticipated
transmission pathways. A typhoon in the Truk territories in
the Pacific in 1971 compromised the usual groundwater
sources, and alternate sources used were contaminated by
pig feces leading to an outbreak of balantidiasis.21 Disease
transmission through airborne mobilization of pathogens has
also been reported, such as inhalation of fungal spores leading
to outbreaks of coccidioidomycosis following earthquakes.22
Long-range transport of microorganisms and fungal spores
has also been reported following major dust storms23 and in
smoke from wildfires.24
Although most of these events are relatively short-lived, the
potential for a more protracted risk of communicable disease
may arise if these post-disaster problems are not resolved. In
general, the main risks arise as a result of population displace-
ment,20 which creates situations in which poor sanitation,
overcrowding and contamination of food or water sources
arise. Full-scale epidemics are more likely in communities
experiencing associated conflict, poor underlying health status
(including immunity to vaccine preventable diseases), and
limited availability of health care.25,26 If the disaster is suffi-
ciently severe, community destruction and dislocation may
force populations to remain in camp accommodation for
months or years. Communicable diseases usually present at
lower levels in the community may display epidemicity in the
disrupted setting after a disaster. Delayed increases in a
number of infectious diseases, including typhoid and paraty-
phoid fever, infectious hepatitis, gastroenteritis, and measles,
was reported five months after Hurricanes David and Fredrick
in the Dominican Republic in 1979. These deferred outbreaks
were attributed to extended residence in crowded shelters
coupled with insufficient sanitary facilities, disruption and
contamination of food and water supplies, and suboptimal
immunization rates.3 Clusters of Neisseria meningitidis infec-
tion have been described post disaster where access to health
care and antibiotics are suboptimal. Measles is a well-recog-
nized cause of child mortality in such contexts.27 After the Mt
Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, 18 000 cases of measles
were described in vulnerable non-immunized populations in
resettlement camps.28 An earthquake in Colombia in January
1999 destroyed most of the houses in Armenia city,
and transitory housing camps still remained until two years
after the disaster. Parasitological studies found that the popu-
lation in these camps were vulnerable to chronic infections,
including giardiasis.29 Displacement may also favor malaria
transmission. Nonimmune refugees may contract the
disease by passing through or settling in high-risk areas,
or—conversely—infectious cases may disseminate disease to
other areas.30
Environmental changes caused by a major catastrophe may
act as an ongoing driver of infectious disease. Inundation or
disruption of water services, such as damaged or overwhelmed
sewerage or drainage systems, provide ideal conditions for
proliferation of disease vectors. In particular, ecological dis-
turbances that contribute to the collection of stagnant or slow-
moving water tend to favor mosquito breeding.4 As Gubler
(2001) notes: ‘‘Climate-related natural disasters may change
the dynamics of human–mosquito contact; floods may create
conditions that allow mosquito proliferation and enhance
mosquito–human contact.’’31 Following the Mozambique
floods of 2000, the number of malaria cases within the
displaced population increased by a factor of 1.5 to two times
compared with previous levels.32 Saenz (1995) reported an
increase in malaria rates in the months after the 1991 Limon
earthquake and subsequent floods in Costa Rica, and attrib-
uted this increased disease burden to habitat changes that
expanded available mosquito breeding sites (landslide defor-
estation, river damming, and rerouting) in combination with
disruptions in malaria control activities.33 In the aftermath of
giant waves and local subsidence following the massive 2004
South Asian earthquake, the problem of saltwater intrusion
became more acute for the Andaman Islands.34 Paddy fields
and fallow land which once contained mainly freshwater
turned increasingly brackish, resulting in profuse breeding of
a salt-tolerant malaria vector, Anopheles sundaicus. The
authors note that vector abundance and increased malaria
transmission is likely to be a permanent feature of the islands,
given the extent of the tsunami-created breeding grounds and
their continued flooding from land subsidence. The increase in
water availability and disrupted flow also raise the likelihood
of arboviral epidemics following natural disasters. Heavy rains
and flooding have been have been associated with elevated
dengue rates in Thailand, Indonesia, Venezuela, and Brazil,
although the longer-term disease risks from flood-related
modification of these environments is less certain.18 In the
US, vector species for a number of arboviruses—including
West Nile virus (WNV), eastern equine encephalomyelitis
(EEE), western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE), and St.
Louis encephalitis (SLE)—have the potential to increase sig-
nificantly in response to heavy rainfall or flooding.35 Similarly,
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heavy rains in Europe led to the re-emergence of West Nile
Fever in Romania in 1996, the Czech Republic in 1997 and
Italy in 1998.36
Relevant disease vectors of course do not only include
arthropods: vertebrate populations may also dramatically
increase in the period after disaster events.37 Ivers (2006) notes
the potential risks of infection from the proliferation of rodent
populations—including carriage of leptospirosis, hantavirus
and plague—although it is uncertain how long these popula-
tion explosions are maintained in the post-disaster period.15
Dog bites increased after the Guatemala earthquake in 1976,
raising the risk of rabies.11 Leptospirosis may also occur from
contact with infected water and a number of outbreaks have
been described in the aftermath of floods in Portugal (1967),
Brazil (1978), in Taiwan after Typhoon Nali in 2001, and in
the Krasnodar region of Russia in 1997.38
Finally, Noji (2005) makes the important point that the
threat posed by sexually transmitted infections, including
HIV, can be exacerbated by disasters. The author noted that:
‘‘HIV spreads fastest during emergencies, when conditions
such as poverty, powerlessness, social instability, and violence
against women are most extreme.’’39 Other public health
initiatives, including immunization and tuberculosis control
programs, may also suffer as a consequence of the disruption
in services, staff availability and access to communities follow-
ing a disaster event.15,37
Category C: Chronic systemic illness
Following a disaster, chronic physical illnesses in the inter-
mediate- to long-term often arise because of the disruptions in
medical care and management. The increased strain on, or
collapse of, existing medical facilities following such events
may destabilize normal patterns of care. As Greenough noted
in wake of Hurricane Katrina: ‘‘[t]he biggest health is-
sue. . .was and will continue to be the inability of the displaced
population to manage their chronic diseases.’’40 The failure of
the health infrastructure to care for displaced (and often
impoverished) people has profound implications for those
who require medications, ongoing procedures (for example,
dialysis; pain management), or a high level of care (including
those with diabetes, epilepsy, heart disease and respiratory
illnesses; those with disabilities; the elderly). In the weeks and
months following Hurricane Iniki in 1992, Hendrickson (1996;
1997) identified a significantly higher incidence of injuries,
asthma and cardiovascular disease in the population of
Kauai.5,6 However, the authors concluded that the increased
asthma and cardiovascular rates were not representative of
acute exacerbations per se, but instead were attributable to the
need to replace medications or to power outages that disrupted
use of home nebulizers for patients with respiratory illness.
Disasters also have the capacity to exert ongoing health
effects by dispersal of toxic agents—including petrochemicals,
human and agricultural wastes, and asbestos—into the envir-
onment. The disease process, and the risks posed by such
hazards, may not be apparent until many years after the event,
and are likely to be subsumed by more immediate concerns in
the immediate disaster aftermath. Young (2004) identifies a
number of pathways by which high levels of anthropogenic
contaminants may be released, including through the action of
floodwaters, seismic activity or extreme winds damaging sto-
rage sites, pipelines, and sewage disposal systems.41 Analysis
of contaminant levels after the floods of 2002–2003 in the UK
indicated that dioxin residues accumulated in rivers, canals,
storm water and sewage drains, and were likely to have been
deposited in publicly accessible areas, including household
gardens.42 A combined flood and fire at a Gloucestershire
waste management site in 2000 liberated 160 tonnes of hazar-
dous waste containing a wide range of chemicals including
cyanide, pesticides, solvents, low-level radiation waste and
asbestos, some of which entered and prompted evacuation
from surrounding homes.42 Following the earthquake in
Kobe, rescue and demolition workers were exposed to asbes-
tos (crocidolite) dusts exceeding international occupational
exposure limits.41
Considerable concern has been expressed about the poten-
tial toxicity of the floodwaters in post-Katrina New Orleans.43
A systematic study indicated that levels of lead, arsenic, and
chromium exceeded drinking water standards. Although con-
tamination levels were not notably high, the extent of their
dispersal and the potential population affected was consider-
able.44 The receding waters also left sediments at risk of
eventually becoming desiccated and windborne. These dusts,
which are potentially respirable and contain toxicants such
petrochemical residues and asbestos, may continue to pose a
hazard for many years into the future. This process of dust
mobilization is occurring in combination with a serious mold
hazard:45 a study of water-damaged homes in New Orleans
and surrounding parishes estimated that 63% of homes are
experiencing mold contamination. It has recently been hy-
pothesized that the combination of exposure to mold and the
contaminated dusts is likely to result in increased susceptibility
to allergies and respiratory illness in New Orleans residents
who are trying to return to their lives and businesses.46
Mobilization of previously stabilized or inaccessible materi-
als may also occur through the action of wildfires, which are
increasing in scale and frequency with growing aridity in many
continents. In 1992, wildfires in Belarus entered the zone
around the Chernobyl Power Plant and resuspended 137-
cesium radionuclides contained in the forest litter, leading to
a 10-fold increase in atmospheric cesium levels. The burning
vegetative matter in wildfires also liberates organochlorines
and volatile organic compounds, both of which pose long-term
health hazards.41
Toxicants may also be directly expelled from natural pro-
cesses. Volcanic fog (so-called ‘vog’) from Kilauea volcano in
Hawaii contains a complex mixture of respiratory irritants,
such as sulfur compounds (SO2, SO3 and sulfate aerosols) and
toxic metals (particularly mercury).47 Degassing of the Ma-
saya volcano in Nicaragua throughout much the 1990s pro-
duced continuous emissions of SO2 at rates increasing from
600 metric tons (t) day�1 (7.0 kg s�1) in 1995 to 1800 t day�1
(21.0 kg s�1) in 1999; atmospheric hydrofluoric acid at high
levels has also been detected around this site.48 Such irritants
have been linked to ongoing respiratory health effects in the
surrounding communities (fully reviewed by Weinstein and
Cook49). The eruption of Mount St Helens in 1980 initiated a
series of studies on the potential health hazards of airborne
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volcanic ash. Ash from volcanic eruptions contains a high
proportion of crystalline silica, thereby potentially raising the
long term risk of silicosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease (COPD) in surrounding communities. As outlined in
Hansell’s recent review,50 follow-up of those with pre-existing
lung conditions and occupationally exposed loggers reported
increases in respiratory symptoms that persisted in some
individuals for months, probably due to resuspension of loose
ash deposits on the ground. The Caribbean island of Mont-
serrat has been subject to many years of sustained volcanic
fallout from the mid-1990s, and a large proportion of the land
area is coated with varying levels of ash. In the areas most
frequently affected by ash falls, a risk assessment conducted in
2003 for the UK Department for International Development
suggested that the risk of developing early radiological
changes of silicosis was highest amongst gardeners and other
outdoor workers, with increased risks up to 10% if their
cumulative exposure over 20 years was at the extreme end of
the likely range. An analysis by Forbes (2003) of children on
Montserrat reported a greater prevalence of wheeze in those
heavily or moderately exposed to volcanic ash compared with
the group exposed to low levels (wheeze in last 12 months:
odds ratio (OR) 4.30; wheeze ever: OR 3.45).51
The link between physical illness outcomes and post-disaster
psychosocial factors is also well-established. Research con-
ducted after the 1988 earthquake in Armenia found an asso-
ciation between heart disease in the 6 months after the event
and those who experienced elevated levels of loss of material
possessions and family members (up to an odds ratios of 2.6
for those with the highest ‘‘loss scores’’). There are also
relationships between the intensity of exposure to disaster-
related losses and elevated rates of newly reported hyperten-
sion, diabetes mellitus, and arthritis.52
Category D: Effects of malnutrition and trace element toxicity
The spectrum of malnutrition in the wake of a disaster
is highly variable, and may occur as a consequence of
general calorie- or protein-deficiencies, inadequate intake of
micronutrients, or excessive ingestion of trace elements.
Impaired nutritional intake is also a risk factor for
mortality from infectious diseases, such as gastroenteritis
and measles, which are often also more common in the
post-disaster phase. Noji (2005) discusses a range of nutri-
tion-mediated outcomes, including the relationship between
vitamin deficiencies and increased childhood mortality in
refugee populations.39
Most dramatically, disasters can directly decrease the quan-
tity of food supplies (such as crop yields; fish stocks) or access
to such supplies. Populations already vulnerable to poverty
and food insecurity, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, are particu-
larly likely to succumb to superimposed crises.53 Droughts
over many years are associated with increased risk of disease
and malnutrition, and are likely to become more prolonged
and widespread if climate change predictions are correct.54,55
Monsoonal floods in Bangladesh have resulted in adverse long
term outcomes for a range of developmental and nutritional
indicators.56 Ongoing issues of food supplies were particularly
apparent for many months after the 2005 Pakistan earth-
quake. A total of 2.3 million people experienced insecure
access to food, a problem which persisted due to logistical
difficulties in providing relief and the inaccessibility of the
affected areas.57
Volcanic hazards may destroy croplands, poison livestock
and contaminate available water supplies. This geophysical
activity may continue for many years, sometimes requiring
complete relocation away from non-viable land.58 The poten-
tial for excessive nutritional intake of trace elements also
arises. Drinking water may become contaminated by fluorine
from tephra, although subsequent fluorosis in human popula-
tions following disasters is not well documented.50 Outflows
from volcanic lakes may also result in destruction of food
sources or heavy metal contamination, as illustrated by the
highly acidic Kawah Ijen crater lake in East Java, which
carries a very high load of SO4, NH4, F, Fe, Cu, Pb, Zn, Al
and other potentially toxic elements to irrigated croplands
downstream.59
Category E: Mental health outcomes
Mental health issues following natural disasters are well
documented, and it is common for individuals to experience
acute distress in the face of such overwhelming events.
Although the majority do not continue to be adversely affected
in the long-term, a significant proportion of disaster victims
experience persistent mental ill-health, including PTSD, major
depression, or other psychiatric outcomes.60 Galea61 contrasts
the early-onset post-traumatic stress disorder that resolves
quickly versus those who experience it over a longer term.
Some analyses have suggested that post-disaster PTSD may
persist in more than one third of the initial cases for more than
a decade.61 Suicide and child abuse are other reported con-
sequences of disasters.3 In children, Ahern4 reviewed the
evidence of mental illness after flooding, and noted evidence
for long-term increases in PTSD, depression, and dissatisfac-
tion with life. Children may be particularly traumatized by the
loss of one or both parents.26
This prolonged clinical trajectory in the post-disaster phase
is supported by numerous findings. A longitudinal study in a
post-earthquake communities in Northern China reported a
higher prevalence of psychopathology at nine months than at
three months post-event.62 A surveillance study of displaced
and nondisplaced participants was conducted in Thailand
following the 2004 tsunami: this event affected all 6 south-
western provinces of Thailand, in which 5395 individuals died,
2991 were unaccounted for, and 8457 were injured. The loss of
livelihood as a result of the tsunami in southern Thailand was
profound, with major disruption of fishing and tourist indus-
tries. At nine months after the event, prevalence rates of
symptoms of PTSD, anxiety, and depression among displaced
persons were 7%, 24.8%, and 16.7%, respectively, compared
to rates in the non-displaced of 2.3%, 25.9%, and 14.3%,
respectively.63 Staff who have been at the centre of emergency
management and subsequent care of the victims (e.g. health
workers) are also vulnerable to burn-out because of enormous
pressure placed upon them.64 A cohort study of firefighters
conducted after the 1983 Australian bushfires revealed that
psychological symptoms fluctuated considerably over time,
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and that 21% of the firefighters were documented to have
persistent PTSD over a 2 year period.65
The role of the social and economic consequences of
disasters in shaping long-term health should not be under-
estimated.64,66 The immediate impact of the 2004 tsunami
provides a recent example of profound social disruption: in
the three Sumatran coastal communities of Calang, Rigah and
Sayeung, almost 100% of structures were destroyed and an
estimated 64% of the total population was classified as killed
or missing. Almost two-thirds of households in Calang re-
ported the death of at least one immediate family member
directly attributable to the tsunami impact.57,67 Hurricane
Katrina caused population displacement of hundreds of thou-
sands of Gulf Coast residents to at least 18 different states.68
As Wilson (2006) notes: ‘‘Because of stress and disenchant-
ment, evacuees are at increased risk for depression and post-
traumatic stress disorder, domestic violence, and domestic
abuse.’’46
Carr (1995) reported that ongoing disruption and other life
events were significant predictors of chronic morbidity follow-
ing a major earthquake in Newcastle, Australia.69 In particu-
lar, disaster-related job loss and unemployment have been
consistently identified as risk factors for long-term psycho-
pathology.70 Following a disaster, many families suffer con-
siderable financial hardship and may become temporarily
displaced or permanently relocated, thereby interrupting es-
tablished community, cultural and social ties.71 The impacts
are usually greatest in lower income households, who because
of limited resources, often take longer to pass through the
transition to recovery. Indeed, many are forced to remain in
‘‘temporary’’ living arrangements long after other sections of
the community have re-established their pre-disaster status.72
Fernandez (2002) notes the particular difficulties experienced
by the elderly in relation to financial recovery, noting that
younger age groups are better able to return to their pre-
disaster standard of living.73
Prolonged disasters may also take a more widespread
economic toll, escalating the health effects from socioeconomic
deprivation. Ongoing drought is particularly damaging in its
contribution to loss of livelihood, incurred debts, and closure
of essential services. In Australia, the 2002–2003 drought is
estimated to have cost 1.6% of GDP and about 70 000 jobs,
with an on-going Federal Government commitment of
$AUS740 million in drought relief between 2002 and
2005.1,74 In industrialized countries, creation of regional pov-
erty is the process by which drought is most likely to lead to
adverse health consequences, as opposed to the malnutrition-
related effects described in the previous section.
Optimizing disease surveillance and management in
the post-disaster period
Specific emergency response measures vary from hazard to
hazard; however, the broad management approach remains
the same. Quarentelli (1997) states that ‘‘agent-generated
needs vary depending upon the disaster impact and the specific
nature of the agent, [but] response-generated demands, such as
coordination, mobilization of personnel and resources, and
proper delegation of tasks are common to all disasters.’’75 The
four main elements to the approach may be defined by the
quartet of ‘‘Prevention; Preparedness; Response; Recovery’’.
Considerable advances have been made in recent years in
relation to prevention, preparedness and response planning,
and most industrialized countries and States have detailed
support plans and procedures for disasters. However, few
authorities outline the requirements for maintaining commu-
nity health beyond the acute disaster phase. In 1975, Michel
Lechat, a prominent disaster epidemiologist, described con-
temporary disaster relief as ‘‘crisis dominated’’:19 even today,
this often remains the case. Although the community health
effects have become better recognized, most forms of illness in
the post-disaster phase remain under-researched.76 In order to
adequately protect the health of the population, these require-
ments need to be more clearly defined during reconstruction
and beyond, including a commitment to minimizing disease in
neighborhoods already at high risk (for example, for socio-
economic reasons).77 Many authors have questioned the
capacity of relief agencies to transfer from the acute disaster
phase into longer-term management of disease.78 Unfortu-
nately, many organizations responsible for disasters lack an
adequate process or authority structure to coordinate hazard
assessment and population health surveillance in the weeks,
months and years following a disaster.79 As VanRooyen
observed: ‘‘Relief organizations still have much to learn about
shifting from short-term medical-aid efforts to productive,
sustainable interventions that promote the development of a
local health care system’’: it may be argued that the ongoing
capacity to monitor disease outcomes should be included as an
integral component in the provision of ‘‘local health care’’.80
The final section of this review will focus on one particular
aspect on post-disaster management: the enhancement of
long-term health surveillance. An effective public health res-
ponse to any emergency places a priority the collection,
collation, interpretation and dissemination of accurate infor-
mation to allow for the proper management of the disease
burden.57,67,81,82 Given the range of disease outcomes identi-
fied above, it is apparent that this surveillance and response
approach should be extended to communities in the post-
disaster phase. The persistence of physical and psychological
symptoms during the period after a disaster has implications
for health care providers and funding agencies, and accurate
information relating to these outcomes is a necessary prere-
quisite for health planning.2 It has also been acknowledged
that longitudinal analyses of health effects are required to
capture the scale of the true disease burden following a
disaster.40,83 As noted above, Table 1 outlines a list of poten-
tial health indicators that could be used to extend epidemio-
logical capacity. Although options are limited by the pre-
existing extent of the region’s health information systems,
data collection procedures in communities impacted by emer-
gency events might encompass cause-specific mortality rates,
hospitalization events, emergency room consultations, sentinel
general practice consultations and mental health contacts.
Enhanced surveillance data would allow robust epidemiologi-
cal risk analyses to be conducted, comparing the health effects
(attributable disease burden) associated with different predic-
tors of disaster events, including severity and the scale of
response/outcome. Advanced temporo-spatial techniques,
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such as disease mapping and time series analysis of the
datasets at both aggregate and case-level, may be used to
elucidate the relationships between emergency events and
health outcomes. GIS technology can help with the assessment
of disaster-affected areas,84,85 and may eventually play a role
in long-term surveillance of health events and in planning
services for high-risk communities.
Record-based epidemiological summaries do not, however,
necessarily address all the information-gathering require-
ments. Indirect pathways to disease are not well captured by
simple frequency-based analyses. Many chronic outcomes,
particularly those related to psychological illness or illness
due to social factors, may not be formally evaluated or
included in such disease estimates. Diminishing community
income following a disaster may result in indebtedness, bank-
ruptcies, job losses, strained family relationships and marriage
breakdowns leading to chronic depression and other mental
illnesses: exploring such complexity is better suited to other
techniques, including qualitative and sociological methods.
Predictors of disease may also be inferred from other con-
textual measures, such as those which capture ecological
change. For example, it may be appropriate to conduct an
analysis of post-disaster environmental modifications which
facilitate mosquito proliferation, including an evaluation of
changes in vector species abundance.
Globally, the impact of extreme weather events increasingly
needs to be anticipated, given the likelihood that climate
change may alter the frequency, severity or complexity of
many natural disasters.55 The health impacts of weather-
related disasters (including floods, landslides, and windstorms)
have been well-documented, and encompass direct (deaths and
injuries) and indirect effects (infectious disease, long-term
psychological morbidity).86 Many of these problems will also
have implications for the development of long-term health
sequelae.40,83 As we move into an era of climatic unpredict-
ability and instability, it is timely to recall that recovery from
disasters is protracted and not inevitable. Climate modeling
may help identify vulnerable regions and population groups
and could provide guidance for long-term public health
surveillance priorities.87,88
Conclusion
Natural disasters have serious consequences for human well-
being in ways that are not always readily apparent or pre-
dictable in the intermediate- and long-term. This review has
indicated that the capacity of health services to monitor and
address delayed or indirect disease outcomes remains ques-
tionable, even though it is these factors that often predict
community recovery in the wake of a disaster. Most epide-
miological evidence following such events is derived from
cross-sectional studies or studies with short-term follow-up;
we therefore have relatively little information about the long-
er-term trajectory of disaster victims. It is apparent that
national and local health services must be equipped not only
to handle the increase in demand during the immediate
emergency, but also to provide health surveillance systems in
subsequent weeks, months and years. Some groups within the
population are likely to be particularly vulnerable to cata-
strophic events, including the elderly, children, or those with
limited resources for recovery for socioeconomic reasons.
Emergencies place communities at risk of numerous hazards,
and it is important to remember that not all health problems
recede with the floodwaters.
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