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10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

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Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine The work is supported by EU FP7 Project “ТHЕSEUS” E.N. Voskresenskaya, V.N. Maslova Low-frequency anomalies of cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with ocean-atmosphere interaction in the North Atlantic and North Pacific 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) 12 – 16 September 2011 Berlin, Germany
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Page 1: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

The work is supported by EU FP7 Project “ТHЕSEUS”

E.N. Voskresenskaya, V.N. Maslova

Low-frequency anomalies of cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with ocean-atmosphere interaction in the North Atlantic and North Pacific

10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)12 – 16 September 2011Berlin, Germany

Page 2: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Climate shift or low-frequency variability?

http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/05/14/timescale-of-the-pdo-nao-and-amo/

AMO PDO

Page 3: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Winter frequency anomalies (Black Sea cyclones)

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Winter PDO index

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Winter AMO index

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Moving Average = 9 yrs

PDO

AMO

cyclones

Page 4: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Composites of the frequency of cyclones associated with PDO phases

Voskresenskaya, E. N. and Maslova, V. N. : Winter-spring cyclonic variability in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with global processes in the ocean-atmosphere system. Adv. Sci. Res., 6, 237–243, 2011.

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Freq

uenc

y

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Freq

uenc

y

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

Fre

quen

cy

1948-1976 (PDO-)

1977-2001 (PDO+)

Black Sea Western Mediterranean Eastern Mediterranean

Page 5: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Data and methods NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets on

1000hPa geopotential height in 1948 – 2006 for cyclone detection and their characteristics calculation with the use of special methodology after Bardin (1995)

interactive site of NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division for analysis of Monthly/Seasonal Climate Composites

Atlas of extratropical storm tracks from NASA GISS web page

Page 6: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Aim

to study winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)

Page 7: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

How do PDO & AMO manifest in North Atlantic

storm tracks?

Page 8: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

PDO-

PDO+

Schematic representation of typical storm tracks for PDO phases

Page 9: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

AMO-

AMO+

Schematic representation of typical storm tracks for AMO phases

Page 10: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region

Shifts of North Atlantic storm tracks cause the deposition of zones with intensive cyclonic activity

PDO-

PDO+

AMO+

AMO-

January

Page 11: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

What are the joint AMO&PDO manifestations?

Page 12: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

+ + + + + + + + + - - - - + + + + + +

- - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + - - -

AMO

PDOAMO-PDO-

AMO-PDO+

1948 1965 1976 1995 2000 2006

MBS cyclones

Page 13: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

AMOAMO- - && PDOPDO++AMOAMO- - && PDOPDO--

Frequency of cyclonic centers in 2.5×2.5° squares

Anomalies of 500hPa geopotential height (m)

1967 – 1971 1988 – 1992

1967 – 1971 1988 – 1992

January

Page 14: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Composites of 500hPa wind vector

PDO-AMO-

PDO+AMO-

PDO+AMO-

ms-1

PDO+AMO-

Schematic representation of typical storm tracks

January

Cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region is more intense for combination AMO-&PDO- than for PDO+&AMO-

Page 15: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Results AMO and PDO have significant manifestations

in decadal-multidecadal variability of cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region due to specific shifts of North Atlantic storm tracks.

combination of negative AMO and PDO phases is accompanied by intensification of cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region.

combination of the positive PDO phase and negative AMO phase causes the weakening of cyclonic activity in the studied region.

Page 16: 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)

Next steps

To study other combinations of the AMO&PDO phases and mechanisms of their influence on cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region

+ + + + - - - - - - - - - - - - - - + +

- - - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + + - -

AMO

PDOAMO+PDO-

AMO+PDO+

1948 1965 1976 1995 2000 2006


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