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National Likely General Election Voter Survey May 16 th , 2016 On the web www.mclaughlinonline.com
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National Likely General Election Voter Survey
May 16th, 2016 On the web
www.mclaughlinonline.com
This survey of 1,000 likely general election voters nationwide was conducted on May 11th to 16th, 2016.
All interviews were conducted online; survey invitations were
distributed randomly within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a
nationwide general election.
This poll of 1,000 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for
cross-tabulations.
Methodology
National - M&A
May 2016
4644
44 4744 4742
4541
42 4548 47 45 47 46 48 4748 47 45 45 47 48
50525453 5255
5255
5256 56
5350 515450 5251 5150 52 53 54 52 50
49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16
Approve Disapprove
Job Approval: Barack Obama
- Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Job Approval: Barack Obama
50
20
29
49
15
34
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref.
National - M&A
May 2016
App. Disapp.
East 56 43
Midwest 45 53
South 46 52
West 54 45
Right Direction 96 4
Wrong Track 28 71
Approve – Obama. 100 0
Disapprove – Obama 0 100
Favorable – Clinton 84 15
Unfavorable – Clinton 24 75
Favorable – Trump 22 78
Unfavorable – Trump 67 32
Vote Clinton 83 16
Vote Trump 13 87
Vote Undecided 47 50
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 0 100
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 54 43
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 0 100
Republican 14 86
Democrat 80 20
Independent 49 47
Liberal 83 16
Moderate 56 42
Conservative 18 81
White 41 59
African- American 84 11
Hispanic 60 39
Under 55 54 44
Over 55 43 57
Men 48 50
Women 50 48
46
49 48
42 4145
42 40 38 39 40
4745 47
53 5150
54 5559 57 56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16
Favorable Unfavorable
Opinion: Hillary Clinton - Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Opinion: Hillary Clinton
40
15
26
56
14
41
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FAV. Very Smwt UNFAV. Smwt Very NO
OPIN.
National - M&A
May 2016
Fav. Unfav.
East 40 56
Midwest 42 55
South 41 55
West 40 57
Right Direction 80 17
Wrong Track 23 74
Approve – Obama. 68 27
Disapprove – Obama 13 85
Favorable – Clinton 100 0
Unfavorable – Clinton 0 100
Favorable – Trump 19 79
Unfavorable – Trump 54 43
Vote Clinton 76 21
Vote Trump 8 90
Vote Undecided 14 71
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 37 58
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 48 47
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 63 36
Republican 11 88
Democrat 70 25
Independent 32 60
Liberal 68 30
Moderate 44 49
Conservative 16 81
White 36 62
African- American 62 27
Hispanic 45 49
Under 55 41 53
Over 55 39 59
Men 38 59
Women 42 52
3533
37
62 6560
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2/16 3/16 5/16
Favorable Unfavorable
Opinion: Donald Trump - Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Opinion: Donald Trump
37
15
23
60
14
47
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FAV. Very Smwt UNFAV. Smwt Very NO
OPIN.
National - M&A
May 2016
Fav. Unfav.
East 38 62
Midwest 35 62
South 38 58
West 37 61
Right Direction 18 80
Wrong Track 47 51
Approve – Obama. 16 81
Disapprove – Obama 59 39
Favorable – Clinton 18 81
Unfavorable – Clinton 53 46
Favorable – Trump 100 0
Unfavorable – Trump 0 100
Vote Clinton 9 89
Vote Trump 77 22
Vote Undecided 9 81
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 6 89
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 5 91
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 7 92
Republican 71 28
Democrat 15 83
Independent 27 68
Liberal 22 78
Moderate 27 68
Conservative 59 39
White 44 54
African- American 14 79
Hispanic 25 73
Under 55 30 66
Over 55 48 52
Men 46 53
Women 30 67
4850 48
4241 41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2/16 3/16 5/16
Favorable Unfavorable
Opinion: Bernie Sanders - Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Opinion: Bernie Sanders
48
17
30
41
21 20
11
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FAV. Very Smwt UNFAV. Smwt Very NO
OPIN.
NHO
National - M&A
May 2016
Fav. Unfav.
East 57 35
Midwest 45 45
South 42 42
West 52 39
Right Direction 68 24
Wrong Track 39 49
Approve – Obama. 68 22
Disapprove – Obama 27 60
Favorable – Clinton 62 27
Unfavorable – Clinton 38 53
Favorable – Trump 31 60
Unfavorable – Trump 59 31
Vote Clinton 67 22
Vote Trump 25 64
Vote Undecided 48 33
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 44 40
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 59 27
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 49 37
Republican 23 67
Democrat 66 23
Independent 51 33
Liberal 77 18
Moderate 53 31
Conservative 21 68
White 44 46
African- American 64 19
Hispanic 52 37
Under 55 51 35
Over 55 42 49
Men 49 45
Women 47 38
42 4143 43
4144
4042 41
48
40 41
4242
4444
42
4443 43
4143 44
42414141 41
43
41
42 4342
51
43 42
41
44
424243
43 43 43 44 45 44 45
1619
17 17 16 1518
16 17 17 18 1714 14 14 15
13 13 14 14 13 12 1310
20
30
40
50
60
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16
Democratic Republican Undecided
Generic Ballot for Congress - Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress
42
20
13
9
46
28
12
6
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GOP Def. Prob. Lean DEM Def. Prob. Lean UND.
GOP DEM. UND.
East 40 49 11
Midwest 45 41 14
South 42 46 12
West 39 48 13
Right Direction 16 76 8
Wrong Track 55 32 13
Approve – Obama. 14 76 10
Disapprove – Obama 71 15 14
Favorable – Clinton 14 77 10
Unfavorable – Clinton 64 23 14
Favorable – Trump 79 12 9
Unfavorable – Trump 20 66 14
Vote Clinton 10 82 8
Vote Trump 83 8 9
Vote Undecided 21 38 41
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 24 44 32
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 15 66 19
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 19 63 18
Republican 92 3 6
Democrat 8 87 6
Independent 29 39 32
Liberal 19 75 7
Moderate 27 56 17
Conservative 76 14 11
White 49 40 11
African- American 15 73 13
Hispanic 31 51 19
Under 55 38 47 15
Over 55 48 43 9
Men 47 43 10
Women 38 48 15
National - M&A
May 2016
41 4542 4642 43
3944 4444 45 44 44 46
4946 47 47 44 42 41 42 44
5451
5550
5352 54 53 51 52 51 52 52 50
47
5150 49 52 54 55 54 52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16
Approve Disapprove
Approve/Disapprove: Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare
- Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Approve/Disapprove: Obamacare
44
18
26
52
18
34
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref.
National - M&A
May 2016
App. Disapp.
East 48 49
Midwest 43 52
South 41 57
West 49 45
Right Direction 87 11
Wrong Track 25 71
Approve – Obama. 80 16
Disapprove – Obama 10 88
Favorable – Clinton 74 22
Unfavorable – Clinton 23 75
Favorable – Trump 19 79
Unfavorable – Trump 60 36
Vote Clinton 74 22
Vote Trump 13 85
Vote Undecided 38 52
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 18 75
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 46 48
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 24 70
Republican 15 84
Democrat 73 23
Independent 39 53
Liberal 77 21
Moderate 48 46
Conservative 17 81
White 37 60
African- American 75 18
Hispanic 53 44
Under 55 47 48
Over 55 41 56
Men 44 53
Women 45 51
50 5252 55 55 56 54 54
4953
51 52 53 55 53
32 31 31 3032
31 3229
34 32 32 31 30 2932
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16
Smaller Larger
Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services, or a larger government with many services?-
Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services, or a larger
government with many services?
53
32
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Smaller Gov't Larger Gov't DK/Ref.
National - M&A
May 2016
Smaller Larger
East 51 31
Midwest 57 30
South 51 34
West 53 31
Right Direction 26 56
Wrong Track 66 22
Approve – Obama. 33 48
Disapprove – Obama 73 17
Favorable – Clinton 32 49
Unfavorable – Clinton 70 19
Favorable – Trump 71 20
Unfavorable – Trump 42 40
Vote Clinton 33 48
Vote Trump 77 15
Vote Undecided 45 29
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 53 30
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 48 34
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 47 39
Republican 77 16
Democrat 33 48
Independent 50 28
Liberal 32 55
Moderate 47 33
Conservative 74 15
White 59 28
African- American 32 44
Hispanic 40 46
Under 55 45 38
Over 55 63 23
Men 60 28
Women 46 35
27 29
30 31 29 28 2932
28 28 28 2629 27 26 26
64 62 63 6164 64 64 62
65 64 66 69 66 66 66 67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16
Right Direction Wrong Track
Direction: United States - Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Direction: United States
26
67
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Right Direction Wrong Track DK/Ref.
National - M&A
May 2016
RD WT
East 26 65
Midwest 25 69
South 26 67
West 27 66
Right Direction 100 0
Wrong Track 0 100
Approve – Obama. 51 38
Disapprove – Obama 2 96
Favorable – Clinton 52 39
Unfavorable – Clinton 8 89
Favorable – Trump 13 84
Unfavorable – Trump 35 57
Vote Clinton 46 44
Vote Trump 6 93
Vote Undecided 18 68
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 4 92
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 0 100
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 7 91
Republican 8 90
Democrat 44 46
Independent 22 69
Liberal 49 44
Moderate 28 63
Conservative 8 88
White 21 74
African- American 49 41
Hispanic 27 63
Under 55 29 64
Over 55 23 72
Men 28 67
Women 25 67
3431
3331
33 34
57 58 58 58 5756
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
9/15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16
Continue Obama Policies Change Direction
Generally Speaking, would you like the next President and Congress to…? Continue the policies of President Obama, OR Change direction and move away from the
polices of President Obama
- Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Generally Speaking, would you like the next President and Congress to…?
Continue the policies of President Obama, OR Change direction and move away from the policies of
President Obama
34
56
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Continue Obama
Policies
Change Direction DK/Ref.
National - M&A
May 2016
Cont. Change
East 33 54
Midwest 31 60
South 33 58
West 38 53
Right Direction 78 12
Wrong Track 15 78
Approve – Obama. 67 18
Disapprove – Obama 1 95
Favorable – Clinton 61 28
Unfavorable – Clinton 14 80
Favorable – Trump 10 85
Unfavorable – Trump 48 40
Vote Clinton 62 25
Vote Trump 4 92
Vote Undecided 23 55
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 3 85
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 32 54
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 6 83
Republican 6 91
Democrat 61 28
Independent 28 55
Liberal 66 27
Moderate 36 50
Conservative 8 85
White 26 66
African- American 67 16
Hispanic 40 45
Under 55 37 52
Over 55 29 62
Men 33 58
Women 34 55
Party Total Age Total Race Total
Republican 34% 18-29 14% White 71%
Democrat 40% 30-40 18% African American 13%
Independent 26% 41-55 26% Hispanic 12%
Ideology % 56-65 22% Asian 3%
Liberal 25% Over 65 20% Gender %
Moderate 40% Male 46%
Conservative 35% Female 54%
Voter Profile
4648
46
4441
42
11 12 1210
20
30
40
50
60
2/16 3/16 5/16
Clinton Trump Undecided
Ballot: U.S. President
Clinton (D) vs. Trump (R) - Time Series-
National - M&A
May 2016
Ballot: U.S. President
Clinton (D) vs. Trump (R)
46
28
118
42
24
9 912
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
H.R.C. Def. Prob. Lean D.T. Def. Prob. Lean UND.
HRC DT UND.
East 46 43 11
Midwest 43 43 14
South 48 41 12
West 49 41 11
Right Direction 83 9 8
Wrong Track 30 58 12
Approve – Obama. 78 11 11
Disapprove – Obama 15 73 12
Favorable – Clinton 87 8 4
Unfavorable – Clinton 17 68 15
Favorable – Trump 11 86 3
Unfavorable – Trump 69 16 16
Vote Clinton 100 0 0
Vote Trump 0 100 0
Vote Undecided 0 0 100
Disapp. B.O./Not Trump 55 0 45
Wrong Track/Not Vote Trump 72 0 29
Disapp. B.O./Vote Clinton 100 0 0
Republican 11 83 7
Democrat 81 12 8
Independent 41 34 25
Liberal 78 16 6
Moderate 53 31 16
Conservative 17 73 11
White 39 50 10
African- American 74 13 13
Hispanic 55 27 18
Under 55 50 35 15
Over 55 41 52 7
Men 42 48 10
Women 51 36 13
National - M&A
May 2016
