World Population - Growth, Measurement and Changes

By the end of this lesson you will have:

• Considered the world population growth and

it’s causes• Have assessed the

validity of the Census as a means of data collection

• Have commented on the changes in Population

characteristics

Homework Check• 1. What is this article about?

• ‘This article is about the Indian population increasing an incredible amount and over taking the Chinese population in a few centuries. It is said that the UN's global population is at 7.2 billion and will increase by 2.4 billion showing rapid growth by 2050. Africa is said to be the main developing country, said the UN, Due to the fertility levels of women in Nigeria, Niger and Ethiopia. Whereas in China and Brazil, fertility rates are falling. Nigeria's growth rate is expected to be beat the US by the middle of the century and will start to rival China also. However, China is expected to decrease in growth after about 2030 and this will mean that places such as India and Africa will grow excessively.’

• ‘This article is about the current changes we are seeing in the worlds population. Every country's population is changing in a different way, some are increasing and some are decreasing. All of these countries rate of increase/decrease is different also, so this makes it very difficult to know what will happen to the worlds population’

Homework Check• 2. What statistics does this article use?

• ‘The article uses current and predicted populations of countries and the globe and is mainly sourced from the UN's reports and researchers’

• ‘Throughout the article, the majority of statistics are population figures. These are sourced from the 'World Population Prospects' which is an assessment of the past, current and future population trends. This is published by the United Nations every two years and so the data is particularly accurate. The article states that the stats have been produced by researchers who have used data from 233 countries and areas in order to publish a reliable report with substantial data. The statistics include the rise in global population from 7.2 billion to 9.6 billion and also the fact that the world's 49 less developed countries are predicted to double in size to a population of 1.8 billion in 2050. The majority of statistics are used to emphasise the extent as to which the population is growing in certain countries. For instance, India and China's population will number 1.45 billion people by 2028 according to the United Nations' report.’

Homework Check• 3. Do you agree with the article? Are the sources reliable?

• ‘As there are constant fluctuations in populations depending on the point in which the country is at on the demographic transition model, it is hard to tell whether what the United Nations are saying could be true. As countries develop less children are required to work the farm as a country will not rely on just selling primary products but tertiary products also. Less children being born means that population numbers will gradually decrease as there will be an ageing population, therefore making it hard to believe that the global population will be at 9.6 billion by 2050. On the other hand countries like Germany and Sweden are encouraging larger families to prevent an ageing population and have more people working to help boost the country's economy. However, with China's one child policy it does not make it difficult to see that a developing country like India is likely to have a much more densely population country than China. This makes me believe the sources, like the United Nations are fairly reliable.’

• ‘Personally, I do not think the article is something I could either agree or disagree with as it is based purely on actual facts. All the information comes for the UN which is a reliable source and therefore I am left thinking that this whole article is correct and that there is nothing in the article that could persuade me otherwise.’

Homework Check• 4. Describe the trends shown in the graph for population prediction

• ‘One of the major trends that is seen in the graph is that the USA has always had a gradual population growth increase. This makes me think that maybe this is what it is like with all other developed countries, such as the UK. Another trend that is seen is that while a country is developing it goes through a rapid population increase. This is seen because India and China all dramatically increase at one point with India going from 0.2 billion in 1950 to 1.6 billion in 2050 and with China going from 0.5 billion in 1950 to 1.4 in 2030. However, China is predicted to start decreasing after 2030, going from 1.4 billion in 2030 to 1.1 billion in 2100. Also, India is beginning to show signs of a decrease after 2050. This make me think that once a country has dramatically increased it's population size it then starts falling again, which could be the same in all countries going from being developing to developed. Nigeria is slowly developing at the moment and it currently has a gradual population increase. However, it begins to take a rapid growth from 2020 which is when it will be becoming even more developed. This makes me consider the idea that when a country is in the middle of developing it see's an increase in population growth; this was also seen in the India and China line on the graph’

• ‘Yes I do agree with the article, it provides statistics which are those from a reliable source which makes the article not fake. The statistics provide evidence to show that the population is still expanding due to this risk of high birth rates in different countries. One source in the article is from the UN's Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs; this shows us that the sources are reliable as the information displayed has been studied by someone who has been investing into population change’

Card Sort

• Complete the card sort in front of you• How many terms for population do you

already know?

Key Words

• Birth rate• Death rate• Longevity• Natural increase/decrease• Immigration rate• Emigration rate• Net migration rate• Net population increase/decrease• Life expectancy• Fertility rate• Infant mortality rate

These must be studied and remembered. We will have a test next lesson on them.

Q) Distinguish between birth rate and fertility rate

Growth of World Population

• Look at the chart on page 144

• In groups study the chart and describe and comment on the trends shown.

• Use your role cards in order to complete the task effectively. We will see which group gets closest to an exam friendly description and commentary.

World Population

• Population sweepstake• What do you think the exact world population is?• www.tranquileye.com/clock• It is predicted that this trend is set to continue• As a high grade Geographer you must always be questioning

the reliability and validity of the sources you are presented with

• The clock is estimates compiled by historians, ecologists, archaeologists and so on.

• Different people make different estimates, when these clash, it is usually the lower estimate which is used for the graph.

World Population

• There are many reasons for this population growth:

• Development of crop growing• Invention of metal tools• Advances in plant breeding• Advances in medicine and hygiene• Developments in preservation and storage of

food

World Population

• The most rapid growth in world population increased from 1700+:

• The industrial revolution• Agricultural revolution• Medical advances• Understanding of hygiene and disease• Improved transport

Population Change

• Natural change:Refers to that caused by a difference in birth and death rate. When birth exceeds deaths there will be an increase in population and vice versa.

• Migration change:Refers to the component of increase/decrease that relates to people moving and changing their place of residence. There will be an increase if more people move in than out and vice versa.

Population Change - Sum

• Country A grew from 67.3million to 71million between 2002 and 2006.

• 925,000 a year• Mean annual births = 1.3million• Mean annual deaths = 700,300 • 599,700 a year natural change• Mean annual net migration = 325300 • 925,000 a year natural + net migration

Population Change - Sum

• Country B fell from 5million to 4.7million between 2010 to 2012

• -150,000 a year• Mean annual births = 80,000• Mean annual deaths = 140,000 • -60,000 a year natural change• Mean annual net migration = -90,000 • -150,000 a year population change

Causes of World Population• Study the picture in front of you in groups

• You have 2 mins per picture to study it and write on the back of the sheet:

• A) what is the picture of? B) Where do you think the picture has been taken? C) why might it have an impact on population? D) will it have a negative or a positive impact on population growth?

• Then pass the sheet onto the next group. The next group must make changes as they see fit for the questions.

• Do you think the other group has got anything wrong? If so correct it.

Causes of World Population

• C.H.E.E.S.P

Seven Billion Seven Stories

• The BBC looked into the effect that the world’s growing population has on seven people from across the globe

• The World at Seven Billion

Causes of World Population – Question Check

• 1• A)Briefly describe the trend of the world

population over the last 200 years.

• B) Distinguish between Cultural causes in world population and political causes in world population

• C) Comment on predictions for the world population by 2050

Population Measurement - Census

• Censuses are the most common ways in which Governments collect data about the residents.

• Normally the occur every ten years. • The questions on censuses usually cover: employment,

age, ethnicity, religion, education, social activity• Enumeration districts:• A small area which is covered by one census collector• In the 2011 UK Census there were no enumeration

districts as the information was collected on a mass scale. Only care homes etc had their Censuses hand delivered

Population Measurement - Census

• The data collected from the census is used for two main functions:

• GOVERNMENTS:• Allocation of resources; health, education, employment.• What sort of information do you think the Governments need to

focus on?• NON-GOVERNMENT BODIES:• Retailers, advisers, financial services, property developers.• THINK, PAIR, SHARE - TASK• Can you think of where companies have used this sort of data in

the past? • Make a table using other people’s ideas of the way in which

census data is used. I need to see at least 5 ways for each.

Population Measurement - Census

• Use the table on page 147 to figure out what the main indicators are. Answer the following questions:

• A) Compare the birth rate in Guatemala with the UK

• B) What are the three countries with the lowest GNP

• C) What can the population under 15 years tell us about Government predictions in Haiti?

Problems with Census Data

• Class discussion• Are census forms really that reliable?• What problems do you think there are?• What other ways of collecting population data

could we introduce?• What are the ethical problems behind

collecting data?

Demographic and Economic Indicators

• The census data is useful for geographers and demographers. Demographic and economic indicators are collected by censuses and other agencies.

• TASK• Study the chart in your work booklets• Complete the scatter graph activity• What can the trends and variable tell us about

population indicators?

Essay Preparation

• P.E.E.L• In an essay, each paragraph should follow this structure• Point – make a point• Explain – expand upon the point say it in your own words• Evidence – give an example of the point• Link – link the paragraph back to the question• Practices paragraphs:• A) the fertility rate in Germany• B) The GNP in India• C) The GNP in Germany

Homework

• Complete the scatter graph activity

• Revise in preparation for next week’s timed assessment.

• You will need to study the population indicators in detail and prepare paragraphs to discuss it which use the P.E.E.L structure.