December 16, 2011 29 Big Sky Weekly explorebigsky.com explorebigsky.com REAL ESTATE First and foremost, we want to welcome you back to Big Sky, the best place to enjoy the holiday season. Since your last visit, we’d like to bring you up to speed on our local real estate market. What follows is an overview of the last year’s activity in our entire region including the Mead- ow, Mountain, and Canyon areas, as well as the four resorts. There is a lot of data and doing the research on your own can be daunting, so we’ve done the work for you. We invite you to review the numbers in our data driven report on pages 30 and 31 or visit us next to the Hungry Moose for a personal overview. A YEAR IN REVIEW In 2011, we created a marketplace in which prop- erties actually traded. That may sound insignifi- cant, but in comparison to 2009 and 2010 where we saw a relatively inactive marketplace, we had difficulty determining values because there were so few sales. Thankfully, now, we can look at comparable data within distinct segments and discern true market value. Just over two hun- dred properties traded hands this year, for a total of $106,000,000 (excluding Yellowstone Club transactions). We hit an important milestone late this year: our inventory levels fell below 500, contracting by 38% since the highs of 2008, when we had over 750 listings in the entire Big Sky market. This absorption shows both confidence in the market and a correction in the balance of supply and demand. 75% of the transactions were under $500,000, leading buyers to seek value at price points over $500,000. We were encouraged to see many $1M+ sales in the fourth quarter. BUYERS’ MARKET The most important step a buyer can take towards making a purchase is to get an education on the finer points of their market segment. Well priced properties, foreclosures in particular, have seen multiple offers within 48 hours and even sold over the listing price. Buyers need to know when to strike so they don’t miss a great opportunity. With the combination of decreased prices and very low vacancy rates in the long- and short- term rental markets, investors have begun to allo- cate money to acquire income-producing proper- ties. We expect 2012 to continue to be a buyer’s market, with high-end properties in particular. DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Short sales, foreclosures and bank-owned prop- erties are still affecting our overall market. In 2011, 24% of solds were technically classified as distressed, while only 10% of our active listings are distressed. In other words, we have a high demand for distressed properties, but the supply has been diminished. Buyers continue to ask for a list of foreclosures; that list is shrinking. The op- portunity to purchase top quality distressed real estate is now. PREDICTIONS We remain cautiously optimistic about the overall Big Sky market. Over the past year, we have watched Yellowstone Club stabilize, Moonlight Basin begin to emerge from bankruptcy, and Spanish Peaks Holdings II, LLC file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with all services coming to halt. Through it all, Big Sky Resort seemed to make wise and prudent decisions in all facets of their operations. Resort areas rely heavily on real estate sales in order to sustain their business models. Thus, you can anticipate new product develop- ment and releases in the later half of 2012 in order to generate much needed revenue to sustain operations in both Yellowstone Club and Moon- light Basin. For example, we expect the release of the final phase of the Powder Ridge Cabins (4B), a ski-in ski-out condo development at Big Sky Resort. We anticipate vacant land sales to increase in 2012 due to such low prices throughout Big Sky. Inventory levels in Moonlight Basin will con- tinue to diminish into the first quarter of 2012, which will lead to an increase in value for many of the ski-in ski-out properties there. Yellowstone Club will continue to see absorption in their secondary market, which will eventually lead to new developer releases. They are launching built product that the consumer can purchase ‘turn- key’. Yellowstone Club will continue to be our glimmer of hope in the high-end luxury segment. As occurred in 1998 to 2001, when YC values improve, the rest of the market follows. We confidently predict that in 2012, absorption rates in Moonlight Basin, YC and Big Sky Re- sort will increase over 2011. We guarantee that Big Sky remains an incredible destination with quality of life unmatched by any other mountain resort community. Our advice to you is to begin tracking the data in order to stay in tune with market dynamics. Insider’s Edge The Big Sky real estate market can be difficult to navigate. It’s hard to predict true market values, so we rose to that challenge by developing a solu- tion called the “Insider’s Edge.” On this portion of our website, we will simplify local news and real estate updates. Now more than ever, buyers and sellers need a knowledge-based resource to make informed real estate decisions. Jeff, Tallie and Ryan are an integral component of the leading real estate firm in Big Sky and are proud to live, work, and play here. See our Year End Review on pages 30 and 31 for an in-depth analysis of the entire Big Sky real estate market. Big Sky Real Estate Update: Reflections on 2011 and predictions for 2012 From the local experts at Sotheby’s International Realty, Jeff Helms, Tallie Jamison and Ryan Kulesza
Transcript
December 16, 2011 29
Big Sky Weekly
explorebigsky.com
explorebigsky.com
REAL ESTATE
First and foremost, we want to welcome you back to Big Sky, the best place to enjoy the holiday season. Since your last visit, we’d like to bring you up to speed on our local real estate market. What follows is an overview of the last year’s activity in our entire region including the Mead-ow, Mountain, and Canyon areas, as well as the four resorts. There is a lot of data and doing the research on your own can be daunting, so we’ve done the work for you. We invite you to review the numbers in our data driven report on pages 30 and 31 or visit us next to the Hungry Moose for a personal overview.
A YEAR IN REVIEWIn 2011, we created a marketplace in which prop-erties actually traded. That may sound insignifi-cant, but in comparison to 2009 and 2010 where we saw a relatively inactive marketplace, we had difficulty determining values because there were so few sales. Thankfully, now, we can look at comparable data within distinct segments and discern true market value. Just over two hun-dred properties traded hands this year, for a total of $106,000,000 (excluding Yellowstone Club transactions).
We hit an important milestone late this year: our inventory levels fell below 500, contracting by 38% since the highs of 2008, when we had over 750 listings in the entire Big Sky market. This absorption shows both confidence in the market and a correction in the balance of supply and demand. 75% of the transactions were under $500,000, leading buyers to seek value at price points over $500,000. We were encouraged to see many $1M+ sales in the fourth quarter.
BUYERS’ MARKETThe most important step a buyer can take towards making a purchase is to get an education on the finer points of their market segment. Well priced properties, foreclosures in particular, have seen
multiple offers within 48 hours and even sold over the listing price. Buyers need to know when to strike so they don’t miss a great opportunity.
With the combination of decreased prices and very low vacancy rates in the long- and short-term rental markets, investors have begun to allo-cate money to acquire income-producing proper-ties. We expect 2012 to continue to be a buyer’s market, with high-end properties in particular.
DISTRESSED PROPERTIESShort sales, foreclosures and bank-owned prop-erties are still affecting our overall market. In 2011, 24% of solds were technically classified as distressed, while only 10% of our active listings are distressed. In other words, we have a high demand for distressed properties, but the supply has been diminished. Buyers continue to ask for a list of foreclosures; that list is shrinking. The op-portunity to purchase top quality distressed real estate is now.
PREDICTIONSWe remain cautiously optimistic about the overall Big Sky market. Over the past year, we have watched Yellowstone Club stabilize, Moonlight Basin begin to emerge from bankruptcy, and Spanish Peaks Holdings II, LLC file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with all services coming to halt. Through it all, Big Sky Resort seemed to make wise and prudent decisions in all facets of their operations. Resort areas rely heavily on real estate sales in order to sustain their business models. Thus, you can anticipate new product develop-ment and releases in the later half of 2012 in order to generate much needed revenue to sustain operations in both Yellowstone Club and Moon-light Basin. For example, we expect the release of the final phase of the Powder Ridge Cabins (4B), a ski-in ski-out condo development at Big Sky Resort.
We anticipate vacant land sales to increase in 2012 due to such low prices throughout Big Sky. Inventory levels in Moonlight Basin will con-tinue to diminish into the first quarter of 2012, which will lead to an increase in value for many of the ski-in ski-out properties there. Yellowstone Club will continue to see absorption in their secondary market, which will eventually lead to new developer releases. They are launching built product that the consumer can purchase ‘turn-key’. Yellowstone Club will continue to be our glimmer of hope in the high-end luxury segment. As occurred in 1998 to 2001, when YC values improve, the rest of the market follows.
We confidently predict that in 2012, absorption rates in Moonlight Basin, YC and Big Sky Re-sort will increase over 2011. We guarantee that Big Sky remains an incredible destination with quality of life unmatched by any other mountain resort community. Our advice to you is to begin tracking the data in order to stay in tune with market dynamics. Insider’s Edge
The Big Sky real estate market can be difficult to navigate. It’s hard to predict true market values, so we rose to that challenge by developing a solu-tion called the “Insider’s Edge.” On this portion of our website, we will simplify local news and real estate updates. Now more than ever, buyers and sellers need a knowledge-based resource to make informed real estate decisions.
Jeff, Tallie and Ryan are an integral component of the leading real estate firm in Big Sky and are proud to live, work, and play here. See our Year End Review on pages 30 and 31 for an in-depth analysis of the entire Big Sky real estate market.
Big Sky Real Estate Update: Refl ections on 2011 and predictions for 2012From the local experts at Sotheby’s International Realty, Jeff Helms, Tallie Jamison and Ryan Kulesza
Price Ranges Sold by Transaction Count
A wave of activity occurred in the lower end market (under $500K) and we ex-pect it to flow into the higher end mar-ket (over $500K) in 2012. Value oppor-tunities have been absorbed (read: sold) in the low end market and buyers have just started to participate in the higher-end market in an effort to find value in well-priced inventory.
Price Ranges Sold by Dollar Volume
It is intersecting to see that while the lower end market (below $500K) repre-sents 75% of the transactions, it is only 31% of the total market volume. It is many people’s perception that foreclo-sures typically occur in the low end mar-ket, but you can see in the list to the left that there were 4 distressed sales over $1M this year.
Sold By TypeWith Condo values generally down as much as 60% from the highs of 2007 and long term vacancies staying below 3%, investor interest in this product type rose in 2011. Interest in vacant land continue to lag as replacement costs are still significantly higher than the cost of already built homes and condos. We traded two commercial properties in all of Big Sky and continue to see a high va-cancy rate in commercial leases.
*Data does not include all Yellowstone Club transactions
Condos 121 59%
Homes 55 27%
Land 28 14%
Commercial 2 1%
$0-$100,000 46 22%
$100,001-$200,000 37 18%
$200,001-$300,000 26 13%
$300,001-$400,000 26 13%
$400,001-$500,000 15 7%
$500,001-$600,000 5 2%
$600,001-$1,000,000 26 13%
$1,000,001-$3,000,000 20 10%
$3,000,001-$5,000,000 4 2%
$5,000,000+ 1 0%
$0-$100,000 $3,148,834 3%
$100,001-$200,000 $5,518,500 5%
$200,001-$300,000 $6,506,339 6%
$300,001-$400,000 $8,765,525 8%
$400,001-$500,000 $6,512,300 6%
$500,001-$600,000 $2,774,000 3%
$600,001-$1,000,000 $20,087,999 19%
$1,000,001-$3,000,000 $32,885,684 31%
$3,000,001-$5,000,000 $14,945,000 14%
$5,000,000+ $5,300,000 5%
Profile & Status Updates for our Resorts
Moonlight Basin is a 8,150 acre public business model situated between Lone Mountain and the Spanish Peaks range in the Jack Creek drainage of Madison County. There are 1651 residential units fully entitled for development of which 353 have been built and sold. Amenities include a spa, 8,000-yard Jack Nicklaus golf course (the back 9 holes are completed) and 1,900 acres of pristine groomers, tree glades, and challenging steep terrain (with more terrain to come). Vacant land parcels vary in size from 1 acre to 160 acres. Residential options include private ski-in ski-out homes, cabins, and condos. Much of their real estate can be accessed on skis to both Moonlight Basin and Big Sky Resort’s 5,512 skiable acres (with the Lone Peak Pass). Moonlight Basin filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2008 and has worked to restructure their debt. A definitive settlement between Lehmann Com-mercial and Moonlight Basin is tentatively scheduled for December 16th (as of press time). The close of the sale of Moonlight’s assets to Lehmann and an issuance of final decree will mark an official end to the bankruptcy.
# active listings: 39 $ active listings: $66,792,000# sold in 2011: 15 $ sold in 2011: $27,711,000Average sold / sf : $521.26
Yellowstone Club is a 13,600 acre private business model encompassing Pioneer and Eglise Mountains in Madison County, adjacent to Lone Mountain. There are 864 entitlements of which approximately 345 non-equity residential mem-berships have sold since they opened in 2000. Amenities include 2,200 acres of Private Powder™, a Tom Weiskopf 18-hole golf course, first-class fitness center and outdoor heated pool, 140,000 square foot Warren Miller Lodge housing a spa, kids’ facilities, and a variety of entertainment and dining outlets. Residential options include custom homes, 160-acre private ranches, slopeside chalets, and base lodge Condos which range between $2M and $26M. In 2008, the Club filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy but has since successfully emerged. They are now well capitalized by a group comprised of CrossHarbor Capital Partners, LLC, Discov-ery Land Company and about 60 members. They have seen strong sales in the last year due to a re-setting of values in the resale market.
# active listings: Contact Us Directly $ active listings: Contact Us Directly # sold in 2011: Contact Us Directly $ sold in 2011: Contact Us Directly
The Club at Spanish Peaks is a 5,700 acre private business model situated between Big Sky Resort and Yellowstone Club on Andesite and Flat Iron Mountains. They have 850 entitlements of which approximately 318 non-equity Residential and Golf Memberships have been sold since they opened in 2000. Approximately 40 homes have been built with about 6 currently under construction. Vacant land parcels vary in size from 1 acre to 25 acres. Their ski accessible real estate is also uniquely adjacent to a Tom Weiskopf 18-hole golf course, and offers private access to Big Sky Resort’s public skiing. A clubhouse acts as the center of activity for members as well as a yurt near the base of the Southern Comfort lift. In October 2011, their holding company, Spanish Peaks Holdings II, LLC filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy in a Delaware court. Things are changing daily with respect to their future so please contact us directly for the must current information.
# active listings: 77 $ active listings: $89,093,688# sold in 2011: 12 $ sold in 2011: $$13,683,999Average sold / sf : $562.51
Big Sky Resort is a public business model that is owned and operated by Boyne Resorts and is capitalized by CNL based in Orlando, Florida. The iconic Moun-tain Village operates as the ski area’s hub of activity and nightlife. Amenities include 3,832 acres of worldclass skiing, including 150 named runs covering over 85 miles on three separate mountains and a tram-accessable 11,166 foot peak, heated outdoor pools, two hotels, 18-hole Arnold Palmer golf course located in the Meadow. and a variety of on-mountain summer activities. Residential developer options include ski-in ski-out cabins and slopeside condos, starting at $149,000. There are no developer land options at this time.
Mountain Village# active listings: 120 $ active listings: $61,842,650# sold in 2011: 49 $ sold in 2011: $21,636,250Average sold / sf : $189.88
Moonlight Basin
Spanish Peaks
Yellowstone Club
Big Sky Resort Area
Our mission is to give you the knowledge base to make informed decisions. We represent buyers and sellers.
Year in Review - 2011 Properties Sold (To Date)Our mission is to give you the knowledge base to make informed decisions. We represent buyers and sellers.
Meadow AreaRJS Building Unit 204 $275,000 $275,000
659 Spruce Cone Drive $295,000 $350,000 98.33
Gallatin Building Unit 13 $34,900 $39,900 95.36
Spruce Condo 6 $63,750 $75,000 101.19
Gallatin Building Unit 16 $48,000 $90,000 89.55
193 Spruce Cone Drive $65,900 $65,900 56.81
Firelight Condo 3C $85,000 $85,000 77.84
Firelight Condo 6A $75,000 $99,500 68.68
Silverbow 55 $75,000 $75,000 107.76
Firelight Condo B6 $79,900 $94,900 73.17
Firelight Condo C8 $84,900 $84,900 77.75
Firelight Condo B8 $77,250 $77,250 70.74
Firelight Condo 5C $85,000 $115,000 77.84
Yellowstone Condo 88 $83,500 $83,500 125.75
8 Firelight Drive $89,900 $89,900 82.33
Spruce Condo 51 $94,900 $99,900 110.09
Firelight Condo 19C $79,900 $79,900 64.75
Firelight Condo 16C $85,000 $85,000 77.84
Spruce Condo 11 $94,500 $94,500 132.17
Broadwater 185 $89,000 $89,000 134.85
Glacier Condo 160 $109,900 $137,500 149.73
Broadwater 187 $98,000 $136,000 104.7
Firelight Condo 10D $105,000 $159,000 96.15
Firelight Condo 20A $115,000 $115,000 93.19
Firelight Condo D6 $105,000 $105,000 96.15
Pine Ridge Condo #8 $96,000 $96,000 81.77
Firelight Condo 11A $128,250 $135,000 103.59
Broadwater 180 $149,500 $175,000 151.32
Firelight Condo 2D $115,000 $115,000 105.31
Aspen Court 1 $149,000 $189,000 128.89
Hidden Village 81 $179,900 $220,000 93.41
Glacier Condo 152 $145,000 $145,000 197.55
Glacier Condo 157 $159,900 $199,900 217.85
Madison Court 11 $144,900 $157,900 103.5
68 Rose Hip Circle $142,500 $142,500 73.15
109 Candlelight $143,900 $156,900 77.41
Gray Wolf Condo 2830 $150,000 $150,000 84.65
Madison Court 5 $179,000 $189,500 157.02
PROPERTY LIST PRICE ORIGINAL PRICE
$/SF
62 Candlelight Meadow Drive
$180,000 $180,000 96.83
75 Firelight Drive $174,900 $174,900 94.08
517 Firelight Drive $169,900 $180,700 79.43
397 Firelight Drive $179,900 $179,900 96.77
74 Candlelight Meadow Drive
$184,900 $184,900 86.44
503 Firelight Drive $195,000 $195,000 91.29
49 Candlelight Meadow Drive
$201,000 $201,000 93.97
381 Firelight Drive $206,000 $219,000 111.71
277 Candlelight Meadows Dr
$199,900 $199,900 93.45
2575 Curly Bear Road $225,000 $279,000 173.08
Silverbow 48 $239,000 $375,000 170.71
Deer Run 4E $210,000 $224,900 110.06
677 Sunburst Drive $239,000 $279,000 115.46
2575 Curley Bear Road $239,000 $239,000 137.04
51 Rose Hip Circle $259,000 $259,000 135.32
647 Sunburst Drive $275,000 $275,000 125.46
41 Blue Flax Place $350,000 $350,000 179.49
21 Blue Flax Place $299,000 $315,000 107.25
Deer Run H2 $375,000 $395,000 176.3
C3 Blue Spruce Way $325,000 $375,000 161.21
3525 Ringneck Road $299,000 $299,000 163.93
Deer Run G1 $395,000 $489,900 185.71
Deer Run I2 $375,000 $375,000 176.3
Spanish Peaks Club Condo 16D
$329,000 $399,000 153.74
Deer Run I1 $375,000 $375,000 176.3
F2 Blue Spruce Way $345,000 $345,000 171.13
Spanish Peaks Club Condo 21D
$339,000 $472,500 158.41
Crail Creek Condo 615 $399,000 $495,000 159.6
Spanish Peaks Club Condo 27A
$424,900 $448,000 176.82
Elevation 6000 B1 $550,000 $550,000 203.18
Lone Peak Townhome 10 $499,000 $499,000 207.92
145A Pheasant Tail Rd $444,900 $509,000 173.92
133A Pheasant Tail Lane $497,500 $497,500 166.28
Spanish Peaks Club Condo 8E
$519,900 $549,000 204.04
2265 Little Coyote Road $299,000 $319,900 190.69
2455 Little Coyote $350,000 $350,000 194.44
98 Limber Pine $329,000 $389,000 219.33
2550 Curley Bear Road $426,900 $449,500 144.61
380 Spruce Cone Drive $399,000 $399,000 185.75
2165 Yellowtail Road $299,000 $299,000 91.27
2310 Yellowtail Road $399,900 $599,900 151.48
2695 Curley Bear Road $420,000 $565,000 180.41
50 Skywood Road $429,000 $490,000 336.21
125 Chief Joseph Trail $499,000 $799,000 210.37
1881 Little Coyote Road $437,000 $549,000 174.8
1792 Little Coyote Road $575,000 $675,000 186.45
2715 Little Coyote $599,000 $649,000 239.6
2605 Little Coyote $689,000 $689,000 217.08
466 Antler Ridge Road $633,600 $633,600 113.14
336 Autumn Trail $759,000 $949,000 210.83
121 Silverado Trail $795,000 $795,000 277.97
350 Misty Way $864,000 $1,070,900 213.86
170 GRAY OWL LANE $999,000 $1,300,000 293.82
1555 Silverado Trail $1,999,995 $1,999,995 307.69
229 Amber Lilly Lane $2,695,000 $2,695,000 374.31
West Fork Meadows Lot 6 $63,500 $63,500
Block 5 Lot 10 $79,900 $99,900 6.66
Call us directly for up-to-date market information - 406.995.2244
Helms, Jamison & KuleszaJEFF HELMSBroker
TALLIEJAMISONAssociate
RYAN KULESZABroker
HELMS
JAMISON
KULESZA406 .995 .2244 • BIGSKYSIR .C OM
Visit page 29 for more information about our team
All statistics included in summary derived from MLS. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. This offering is subject to errors, omissions and changes including price or withdrawal without notice. An Equal Opportunity Company. Equal Housing Opportunity. Each Office in Independently Owned and Operated. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and cooperate fully.
Yellowstone ClubYellowstone Club sales information available upon request. Sotheby’s successfully negotiated condo, land and home transactions within Yellowstone Club in 2011.
