11/15/2010

National Petroleum CouncilFuture Transportation Fuels Study

L1 Peer Review

December 3, 2010

1DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Agenda

11:00 -  Introduction (John Deutch/Stephen Brand)

11:05 -  Engines/Platforms

11:50 – Natural Gas

12:35 -  Biofuels

13:20 – Electric

14:05 – Hydrogen

14:50 -  Wrap-up and next steps (John Deutch/Stephen Brand)

2DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Agenda

11:00 -  Introduction (John Deutch/Stephen Brand

11:05 -  Engines/Platforms

11:50 – Natural Gas

12:35 -  Biofuels

13:20 – Electric

14:05 – Hydrogen

14:50 -  Wrap-up and next steps (John Deutch/Stephen Brand)

3DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Selected Engines/Platforms Pinchpoints

Technology Pinchpoint Potential Resolution

High cost of advanced batteries, electric motors, power electronics, re-gen brakes, etc

R&D, stable incentives/ policy to promote investment and volume

High material and manufacturing cost for lightweight materials

R&D

Passive safety technologies add mass R&D

Gasoline stratified charge, HCCI, and diesel

R&D on controls and aftertreatment

High volume, low cost biofuels R&D to reduce cost, investment in full scale biorefineries to drive learning cycles

Congestion mitigation technologies (e.g. V2X)

R&D / demos / “races / challenges”

4DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Engines/Platforms points for discussion

• What is the potential SI engine fuel economy impact of increasing gasoline octane?  What is the fuel economy potential, in miles per gallon gasoline equivalent, for a dedicated engine optimized on E85?

•  What would be the most fruitful research&development pathway for reducing costs for strong hybridizaton?

 •  What has been the primary barrier to use of carbon fiber bodies in high

volume vehicles?

 •  What reduction in fuel consumption/GHG could be achieved by deployment of

intelligent transportation systems?

 • What are we missing? What might be really disruptive to technologies and/or

business models we have today or are thinking about in the future?

 

5DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Agenda

11:00 -  Introduction (John Deutch/Stephen Brand

11:05 -  Engines/Platforms

11:50 – Natural Gas

12:35 -  Biofuels

13:20 – Electric

14:05 – Hydrogen

14:50 -  Wrap-up and next steps (John Deutch/Stephen Brand)

6DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Natural Gas Pinchpoints

7

NGV

Infrastructure

Vehicle

Pumps

Site Storage

Site Production

CNG Storage

On-site Liquefaction

CNG Compression

LNG Storage

CNG Pumps

LNG Cryogenic Pumps

Digesters and Upgrading Facilities

Engines

OEM Integration

Vehicle Fuel Tanks LNG Tanks

CNG Cylinders

Vehicle Conversions

Specific NGV Designs

Dual Fuel Engines

Engine Types & Sizes

Engine Performance

High

Medium

Low

Priority of resolution to drive NGV deployment

Need to ensure engine efficiency growth, and remain compatible with new auxiliary technology such as heat recovery

Expand range of engine types and sizes to increase user compatibility

Need to increase diesel substitution and robustness

Increase purpose-design NGV vehicles with optimised perf/packaging

Important to support for early roll out, but need to standardise and cost reduceIncrease storgae capacity/density for range, and reduce storage pressure requirements

Reduce cost, increase production scale. Improve fuel level sensing

On-site compression is widespread. Standards and cost reduction required. Technology for small fleet/ home refueling

Small scale liquefaction plants will allow wider, economic LNG site deployment.Digesters & biogas upgraders are commercially available & widely used in Europe/China

Reduce site costs to improve infrastructure economics

Widespread LNG storage will require low-cost modular tanksCryogenic pumps not as reliable as CNG/Gasoline. Further dev’t of automated unmanned pumps.

Home and small fleet pumps are reasonably mature but not economic

Peak shavers/LNG Terminals

Better utilisation of existing LNG production

Fuel quality consistencyStandards required for RNG. Auto-sensing & correction will increase product robustness

DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

11/15/2010

Natural Gas points for discussion

• What improvements may be expected in diesel and gasoline engine efficiency/ fuel economy over the next 40 years?

• What levels of system cost reduction- engines and components such as cryogenic pumps and tanks- may be expected over next 40 years for natural gas engine systems, some of which are just now being deployed in demonstration level volumes?

• How can the development of technologies for the commercialization of Renewable Natural Gas/Biomethane be accelerated, so as to capitalize on the 80-100 percent reduction in GHG emissions made possible by RNG, compared to conventional oil and diesel transport use?

8DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Agenda

11:00 -  Introduction (John Deutch/Stephen Brand

11:05 -  Engines/Platforms

11:50 – Natural Gas

12:35 -  Biofuels

13:20 – Electric

14:05 – Hydrogen

14:50 -  Wrap-up and next steps (John Deutch/Stephen Brand)

9DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Biofuels

Crop ResidueSustainable

harvest

Forestry residueSustainable

harvest

Energy cropsNo affect on food

crop acreage

Municipal solid waste

segregation

LogisticsDensification for efficient storage

and transport

Biochemical conversion

ethanol or other fuels

Thermochemicalgasification

Minimize inputs during hydrolysis:dilution, enzymes, chemicals

Produce clean syngas via steam or oxygen blown reforming

Selected Biofuels Pinchpoints

11/15/2010

Biofuels points for discussion

• What is a realistic time frame and cost to advance and deploy advanced technologies for basic technologies like energy that require large amounts of infrastructure?

•  Are there any current energy based technologies with leapfrog potential and how will such technologies overcome the huge inertia current technologies have?

 • Will expanding our energy supply be the biggest driver in the future or CO2

abatement?

11DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Agenda

11:00 -  Introduction (John Deutch/Stephen Brand

11:05 -  Engines/Platforms

11:50 – Natural Gas

12:35 -  Biofuels

13:20 – Electric

14:05 – Hydrogen

14:50 -  Wrap-up and next steps (John Deutch/Stephen Brand)

12DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Electric Pinchpoints

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11/15/2010

Electric Detail of Battery Pinchpoints

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11/15/2010

Electric points for discussion (1 of 2)

• The basic premise of our "barriers" chart is that with current Li-Ion-based batteries, there is not a pathway to achieve a larger-format (larger than midsize vehicle, e.g. Explorer), longer-range (e.g. 200 miles) EV at a competitive price – that some other chemistry will need to be discovered and/or developed. Based on this premise, we evaluated three representative vehicles that were all mid-size or smaller and had different operating modes, but that could reach cost competitiveness and market acceptance.

1. Do you agree with this premise?2. Is this vehicle classification useful?

• For Battery costs in the PHEV-10 case, we assigned a rating of "Green" by 2020. This is based on the anticipation that the USABC goal of $500/kWh can be achieved no later than 2020. For the PHEV-40 and BEV-100 case, cost is rated at "Red” for the next 2 decades.

1. Does the panel concur with our conclusion that battery cost competitiveness for PHEV40 and EV100 applications by 2020 is high risk and a significant barrier to mass adoption?

2. Does the panel agree with our conclusion that the pathway to bring battery costs for PHEV40 and EV100 applications to cost parity before 2035 is achievable with Li-Ion batteries, given investment and time?

3. The literature suggests that achieving an energy density of 300 Wh/kg at the cell level (reducing pack weight to approx. 80 Kg (~180 lbs) in the 2020-2035 timeframe is achievable. Is this assumption reasonable? If so, can it be achieved at a competitive cost?

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11/15/2010

Electric points for discussion (2 of 2)

• In a review of various battery cost studies, we found wide disparity in both current and projected costs for Li-Ion batteries for EVs. When reviewing those studies that used a “bottom-up” costing methodology, the range of costs was much smaller. How do you evaluate a battery study to assess credibility? Which studies in particular do you find credible?

• For both Li-ion and “beyond Li-Ion” batteries1. What will be the most important advances be in the next 10-20 years?2. Which areas specifically need the most R&D investment in the next 10 years?3. How can we determine an appropriate R&D investment level that does not cross over into

diminishing returns?

DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

11/15/2010

Agenda

11:00 -  Introduction (John Deutch/Stephen Brand

11:05 -  Engines/Platforms

11:50 – Natural Gas

12:35 -  Biofuels

13:20 – Electric

14:05 – Hydrogen

14:50 -  Wrap-up and next steps (John Deutch/Stephen Brand)

17DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Hydrogen Pinchpoints

18DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

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11/15/2010

Hydrogen points for discussion

• In your view, what are the key significant challenges and barriers for the success of hydrogen mobility in addition to the ones we have identified?

• What criteria needs to be met for any new fuel or vehicle propulsion system to achieve significant market introduction?

 • Our subgroup is currently prioritizing fuel cell vehicles over hydrogen internal

combustion engine vehicles.  What do you see the scope of the application for hydrogen as a transportation fuel and the order of market entry.  – Do you agree with prioritizing fuel cells vehicles over hydrogen ICEs– Which vehicle segments would you prioritize over others (e.g. long haul

trucking over busses over light duty vehicles, etc…)?

19DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

For NPC Study Discussion Only

11/15/2010

Agenda

11:00 -  Introduction (John Deutch/Stephen Brand

11:05 -  Engines/Platforms

11:50 – Natural Gas

12:35 -  Biofuels

13:20 – Electric

14:05 – Hydrogen

14:50 -  Wrap-up and next steps (John Deutch/Stephen Brand)

20DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE

For NPC Study Discussion Only