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1145-Fajfar Trst 2011

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    SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OFIMPORTANT STRUCTURES IN SLOVENIA

    Peter Fajfar

    30. Convegno Nazionale, Trieste, 16. November 2011

    Institute of StructuralEngineering, EarthquakeEngineering and Construction IT

    University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and GeodeticEngineering

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    Scope

    Important structures according to EC8

    NPP Krko

    Some problems related to seismic hazard analysis

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    Eurocode 8 in Slovenia

    2005 Official implementation Paralell use2008 Mandatory use

    According to the National Annex, special groundinvestigations are required for all important structures(Importance classes III and IV)

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    Seismic hazard map

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    Acceleration spectra

    0,0

    0,5

    1,0

    1,5

    2,0

    2,5

    3,0

    3,5

    0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0

    T [s]

    P S A [ g ]

    475

    1000

    2000

    EC8 - A

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    Importance factors

    T 50 100 200 475 1000 10000

    I 0,48 0,60 0,76 1,00 1,31 2,57

    I 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 T 230 475 780 980 1250

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    Soil factor

    SPEKTRI POSPEKATermoelektrarna otanj, lokacija 3 - UHA,UHF,UMA

    0

    0.1

    0.20.3

    0.4

    0.5

    0.6

    0.7

    0.8

    0.9

    1

    0 0.5 1 1.5 2Nihajni as [s]

    S a

    [ g ]

    vhodni spekter

    spekter na -3m

    spekter na -10m

    FAKTOR TALTermoelektrarna otanj, lokacija 3 - UHA,UHF,UMA

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    0 0.5 1 1.5 2

    Nihajni as [s]

    S a

    ( i z r a

    u n a n i ) / S

    a ( v h o

    d n

    i )

    -3m

    -10m

    MAKSIMALNI POSPEKI / GLOBINATermoelektrarna otanj, lokacija 3 - UHA,UHF,UMA

    0

    0.05

    0.1

    0.15

    0.2

    0.25

    0.3

    0.35

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    Globina [m]

    a [ g ]

    SHAKE program

    Acceleration spectraSoil factor

    Maximum acceleration / depth

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    Idealized soil factor

    IDEALIZIRANI FAKTOR TALTermoelektrarna otanj, lokacija 3 - UHA,UHF,UMA

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    0 0.5 1 1.5 2

    Nihajni as [s]

    S a

    ( i z r a u n a n i ) / S

    a ( v h o

    d n i ) -3m

    -10m

    T[s] 0 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.25 0.6 2

    FT 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 1 1-3m

    T[s] 0 2FT 1 1

    -10m

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    NPP Krko

    Design PGASSE = 0.3 g, PGA OBE = 0.15 g, NRG 1.60 spectrum

    Applied at foundation level (up to -20 m)

    PSHA 1992-1994PGA = 0.42 g (free field)

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    Small local earthquakes

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    NPP Krko

    Development of revised seismotectonicmodel of Krko basin and update of NPPKrko USAR and PSHA analysis (2002-2004)

    Part 1 Development of Revised Seismotectonic Model ofKrko Basin (Geomatrix, USA)

    Part 2 Update of Krko USAR (Geomatrix, USA)

    Part 3 - Update of PSHA Analysis (University of Ljubljana)

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    PSHA 2002-2004

    Performed by University of Ljubljana with subcontractors

    Environmental Agency of Republic of SloveniaOffice of Seismology,Geological Survey of Slovenia

    in cooperation withGeomatrix, USA

    University of Zagreb

    Reviewed by IRSN, France

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    PSHA 2002-2004

    Objective: to reevaluate and revise the PSHA to provide the groundmotion inputs for the seismic PSA

    Computer programs: FRISK88 and EZ-FRISK 5.6, Risk Engineering, Inc.,

    Golden, ColoradoSeismic sources and statements on uncertainty developed by threeindependent earth scientist groups

    GeomatrixSloveniaCroatia

    Only near regional sources ( 25km) were considered

    The methodology was consistent with IAEE Safety guides

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    PSHA 2002-2004

    GMPEs

    Sabetta Pugliese 1987, 1989 Weight 0.60

    Boore Joyner Fumal 1997 Weight 0.35

    Ambraseys Simpson Bommer 1996 Weight 0.05

    PSHA was performed by using SB modelOther GMPEs were taken into account by a period dependentattenuation factor

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    NPP Krko

    Design PGASSE = 0.3 g, PGA OBE = 0.15 g, NRG 1.60 spectrumApplied at foundation level (up to -20 m)

    PSHA 1992-1994PGA = 0.42 g (free field)

    PSHA 2002-2004PGA = 0.56 g (free field), PGA = 0.38 g (foundation level)PSA (T=0.3 s) = 1.58 g (free field), PSA (T=0.3 s) = 0.79 g (foundation level)

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    PSHA 2002-2004

    Increase of seismic hazard compared to PSHA1992/1994 mainly due to

    Sources with larger M at smaller R included

    Modelling of local soil conditions EPRI shear strain and

    damping coefficients used

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    PSHA 2002-2004

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    Soil factor

    ACCELERATION SPECTRAPGA rock = 0.5g

    0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8

    2.02.22.42.6

    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0Period [sec]

    S A

    [ g

    ]

    z=0mz=-20minput

    NEK PSHA 2004

    RATIO OF ACC. SPECTRA AT - 20m AND INPUT ACC. SPECTRAPGA rock = 0.5g

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

    Period [sec]

    S A

    , s o

    i l / S A

    , r o c

    k

    average (basic, EPRI)

    proposed

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    PSHA 2002-2004

    NEK - PSRC 2002Final uniform hazard spectra

    Free field - 10,000 years

    0,00,20,4

    0,60,81,01,21,41,61,82,0

    0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2

    T [ s ]

    P S A

    [ g

    ]

    mean

    0,85

    0,5

    0,15

    Group: ALLNEK - PSRC 2002

    Final uniform hazard spectraFoundation level - 10,000 years

    0,0

    0,2

    0,4

    0,6

    0,8

    1,0

    1,2

    0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2

    T [ s ]

    P S A

    [ g

    ]

    mean

    0,85

    0,5

    0,15

    Group: ALL

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    Some problems

    GMPEs

    TruncationGround motion parameter related to damage

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    GMPEs

    Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have amajor influence on the results of seismic hazardanalyses

    Large aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

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    Comparison of GMPEs PGA for M=6

    Douglas et al., 2008

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    Logarithmic versus linear scale

    Douglas et al., 2008

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    NGA GMPEs

    vertical strike-slip earthquake, Vs30 =520 m/sPeru, Fajf ar 2010

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    Soil factor

    Comparison

    NGA (AS, BA, CY) Akkar-Bommer (AB) CAE

    Vertical slip faultPeru, Fajfar 2011

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    Musson 2009

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    Truncation

    Bommer et al. 2004

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    Acceleration peaks

    YIH-MIN WU et al. 2004

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    Thank you / Grazie


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